NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: DE Jordan Willis, Kansas St

*Our DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

The following comparison almost says it all…

6′3″/246, 4.53 40-time, 1.50 10-yd, 35 bench reps, 41″ vertical, 6.91 three-cone, 40.0 TFLs, 22.0 sacks final two seasons = Vic Beasley

6′4″/255, 4.53 40-time, 1.54 10-yd, 24 bench reps, 39″ vertical, 6.85 three cone, 39.5 TFLs, 25.5 sacks in final two seasons = Jordan Willis

Vic Beasley went #8 overall in 2015 NFL Draft, and Jordan Willis is not in the first round of 95% of the mock drafts out there as of this writing. How is this possible? You want to debate which one of Beasley or Willis is better…that's fine. My argument would be – there are not 30-40-50 spots of draft rankings that separate these two prospects.

Really, the Jordan Willis scouting report is a referendum on whether he is better than, or 'like', or just shy of Vic Beasley as a prospect. You’re getting some version of Beasley with Willis, for better or for worse. Willis rushes off the edge in a 4-3 and he's hard to contain because of his elite (for his size) footspeed and agility. He's athletic enough to drop off to play the run or cover short passes in a pinch. He's Vic Beasley-like. And like Beasley, it may take Willis a season to 'show' in the NFL. Willis, like Beasley, doesn’t have an array of NFL moves/techniques…they're so athletic that they just fly by college blockers almost at will. It won’t be as easy in the NFL, but in time it'll click.

There is no sense going into a deep debate wondering if Willis is set for the next level. He has the high-end athleticism for his size/position. He has the production numbers from college…and he was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. He's not a hidden prospect from anyone. He's recognized. He's a good kid with no history of injury or suspension. He hopes to go to law school one day. He went to the Senior Bowl and was the best pass-rusher there, recording two sacks in the game and just missing 2–3 more – winning the Most Outstanding Player of the game for his team (North). What else does a guy have to do to get the same respect as Vic Beasley did when he came out?

It's a clear case of media bias with 'what school you went to' – whatever school is hot in the national rankings of the moment or has the 'name' like a Notre Dame…those prospects are assumed better because of their school. You’d think enough frauds have been spit out of Notre Dame or USC lately that the NFL would learn…they don't. So as far as the analysts who are paid a lot of money to study all of this (and don’t), their mindset is: 'Clemson' ggggoooddd, and 'Kansas State'…'who cares'. Thus, Jordan Willis…arguably as good as Vic Beasley…could lose millions on his first contract because of the lackadaisical, empty way prospects are pushed or ignored by mainstream football analysts.

All that aside, Jordan Willis is either a little better than, equal to, or a little lesser than Vic Beasley. I think Willis might be a hair better overall, but he's in range either way…and in a league looking for pass-rushers everywhere, Willis is first-round/top 15 material. This is not complicated. The data, the output, the Combine, the tape…it all confirms Willis is worthy of top 15 status.

Jordan Willis, Through the Lens of Our DE Scouting Algorithm:

 Some nice number trends/tidbits on Willis…

-- 24 TFLs in his last 15 games.

-- Three bowl appearances, averaging 3.7 tackles, 1.2 TFLs, and 0.8 sacks per game

-- 5 forced fumbles in his last 17 games (Myles Garrett 4 FFs in his last 17 games)

-- Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Senior Bowl North Team game MVP

NFL Combine data…

6′3.6″/255, 33.5″ arms, 9.9″ hands

4.52 40-time, 1.54 10-yard, 6.85 three-cone, 4.28 shuttle

24 bench reps, 39.0″ vertical, 10′5″ broad jump

Willis's college stats on CFB Reference: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jordan-willis-1.html

The Historical DE Prospects to Whom Jordan Willis Most Compares Within Our System:

Willis has Vic Beasley's size, speed, agility…but is about 10 pounds thicker doing so. Connor Barwin is a very nice comp as well…a three-year backup tight end and then an amazing conversion to DE as a senior to lead the Big East in sacks and became a very good NFL pass-rusher.

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL DE.

All of the DE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DE prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DE, a 'bull-rusher', and/or a DE prospect who has some DT capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DEs who profile more as speed-rush, stand-up DEs, and/or possible OLBs.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DE is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the 'system'/scheme the DE goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player's skills and performance history. "You can't keep a good man/DE down," we'd like to think.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DE as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower-scoring DEs in this subcategory tend to be more pure pass-rushers/specialists. This is also our attempt to quantify, if it's possible, the 'toughness' of a player.

2017 NFL Draft Outlook:

I will be aghast if Willis is not a first-round pick. Nothing surprises me in the NFL anymore, but I think I'd be shocked on this one. If was betting money, I say Willis in the first, not the second round.

NFL Outlook:   

Vic Beasley and Connor Barwin have had nice careers so far, and I have to imagine Willis follows in their footsteps…and Willis may be the most well-rounded of the three.

3/25/2017