NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: QB Jacoby Brissett, NC State

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. 

You can tell where this scouting report is going by my opening line: “The fact that Jacoby Brissett was invited to the Senior Bowl, and Vernon Adams was not, is an abomination on football scouting to the highest degree.” I cannot believe, in this day and age, with the access to information everyone has, that this could take place. I’ll save you some time reading, and I’ll keep this report short otherwise—Jacoby Brissett has no business being at the Senior Bowl, getting invited to the NFL Combine, nor getting drafted in the NFL. If an NFL team drafts Brissett in April, they should have their franchise rights revoked, and the team put up for immediate sale.

I could tell from our mathematical scouting models this was going to be ugly, but then I watched the tape just to see what the computer was thinking…unreal. It’s not that Brissett is incompetent or the worst QB prospect I’ve ever seen…it’s just there are so many ‘C’ talents and ‘B’ talents hitting the draft market at QB in 2016…Brissett is an ‘F’ for sure. He shouldn’t be able to earn the minor accolades and attention he does in this class. He was a solid college QB…leave it at that.

It’s funny, the game that stands out for me is his fifth game of 2015 versus Louisville—and it was the first game tape I watched. Up to then, NC State was 4–0 and Brissett was leading the nation in completion percentage. I know this because the announcers went on to mention it a thousand times to start this game. NC State would go on to lose a winnable game to Louisville with Brissett completing just 57.1% of his passes, while throwing for 1 TD/0 INT and 180 yards. Here’s the thing, Brissett threw two screen/swing passes of note in that game—one went for 60+ yards because of a few missed tackles and a sideline tightrope by the receiver, and another for a 20+ yard TD for the same reason. Two passes that traveled negative yards wound up accounting for more than 50% of his passing yards in the game, and 100% of his TD passes.

The Louisville game represents Brissett’s talents/NC State career perfectly. He’s a sufficiently strong-armed QB who throws a ton of swings and screens in the backfield. He lives for it. It’s why he can lead the country at various points in completion percentage…early, when playing garbage teams to start the year. He completed 77.9% of his passes pre-Louisville in 2015, in monster matchups with Troy, E. Kentucky, S. Alabama, and Old Dominion. After that, in ACC play and his bowl game—54.3% in the other nine games he played in.

Brissett has the arm to throw deep and is comfortable in the pocket—he’s just devoid of natural QB instincts. He locks onto one receiver too many times, and he launches over/underthrows too often. His whole game is simple passes…and he has the arm, and mobility to run the offense well for college—but his style has no translation to the NFL. The moment he starts throwing passes past the line of scrimmage he’s at risk.

Some might think he’s a runner-passer to take note of, so you can allow for some limited passing skills because of his feet…but I don’t see any great runner here. He’s probably a 4.7+ runner. He’s college-fast, and NFL-moderately-slow.

Brissett is a fine college quarterback, and let’s leave it at that.

Jacoby Brissett, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

In his two seasons starting for NC State, Brissett started out 8–0 when looking at the first four games in each season—games against inferior competition. He also dropped 16 TDs/1 INT passing in those eight wins.

In his other 18 games as NC State starter, away from the cupcakes, and into the ACC schedule and two bowl games—he sports a 7–11 record with 27 TDs/10 INTs…which is not awful but consider again most of his action is coming from screens, swings, and otherwise short passes. In 2015, Brissett never had a 300+ yard passing game. In fact, his high mark in 2015 was 254 yards passing. He threw for 300+ yards once in his 26-game career as NC State starter.

In two bowl games, Brissett is 1–1, completing 50.0% of his passes for 239.0 yards and 1.0 TDs/1.0 INTs per game.

There really is nothing here, but a solid/good college quarterback who offers the NFL nothing. If the computer doesn’t see a smaller Logan Thomas in the next section—I’ll eat my hat.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Jacoby Brissett Most Compares Within Our System:

Hat intact. Fortunately, for me, Thomas made the list, but our computer models think Jake Locker makes more sense as a comparison—and that does make sense. Strong-armed, kinda mobile, one-dimensional, highly inaccurate the farther you go downfield—that’s Locker, and Brissett.

*“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

**A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going onto become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

Whatever draft momentum Brissett has will die off at the Senior Bowl. There’s a solid collection of talent in Mobile at QB this year…except for Brissett, who doesn’t belong. That fact will become painfully clear when NFL evaluators see him up close compared to the other guys. I predict Brissett won’t get drafted, and goes the UDFA route.

If I were an NFL GM, Brissett is not on my draft board, nor on a ‘UDFA call’ list.

NFL Outlook:   

He does not get drafted. He gets a summer tryout. He doesn’t make the team. You never hear from him again in NFL circles.  

1/28/2016