NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: DT Sheldon Rankins, Louisville

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

In the early stages of our defensive tackle scouting evaluations, Sheldon Rankins is our clear top DT prospect in the 2016 NFL draft class (DeForest Buckner classified as a DE, but we'll soon study him as a DT prospect as well...so Buckner not in the DT mix, yet).

His production numbers/output/stats may not blow you away, and depending upon which tape you’re looking at, you might not be overwhelmed watching him work either. There is a reason for the possible head fake here. Rankins is our clear top DT prospect but depending upon what tape…and/or at what point in the game you were looking at, Rankins was playing defensive end for Louisville. If you want to judge Rankins as a defensive end prospect, he’s below-average for the NFL…competent for college, but below-average for the NFL. You watch Rankins’s tape with him at defensive tackle, and it’s a completely different situation.

Rankins is a menace at defensive tackle. He has a great burst and surge off the snap. He has excellent feet which allow him to maneuver past interior linemen to get into the backfield as well as track ballcarriers entering into his zone. As a 4-3 scheme DT, you have an excellent prospect here. As a 4-3 scheme DE, as he played on and off for Louisville, he’s just ‘OK’. As a 3-4 scheme DE, he’s also ‘OK’. The major upside is to put his 300-pound body with nimble feet playing up the middle. He’s a top prospect working against the interior of an offensive line as a 4-3 DT.

Watching game tape of Rankins in 2015, the concept that his time spent at defensive end was skewing his scouting hit me a couple games into it—when I kept noting that he was lined up out on the end so often, and not really doing a whole lot to impact the game. When I was thinking about this issue, I went back to just a pure highlight reel of Rankins’s sacks and TFLs over his career, wondering/assuming that most of them came while playing a 4-3 scheme DT. It didn’t take long into the highlight reel to realize almost 100% of his greatness comes from him working the interior as a 4-3 DT. I started tracking his performance/output as DT versus a DE, but it was so lopsided, and so obvious, I just stopped tracking it at a certain point. Trust me, you want him as a 4-3 defensive tackle for your NFL team.

Working up the middle in a 4-3, Rankins has a gift. He has very nimble feet. He bounces off blocks and moves east-west as well as any 300-pound man you’ll find. He gives you good effort and energy on every play, and doesn’t just rush the backfield mindlessly—he has nice instincts to read run and pass plays, and adjust what he’s doing accordingly. I can find little fault.

I see no real flaw in Sheldon Rankins as a prospect for the NFL, as a 4-3 DT prospect. He has the size, the athleticism, and the high motor you’re looking for in a top DT prospect. My only negative would be that I see Rankins as a good-to-very-good DT prospect, but we don’t see him as a high-probability to be a future elite DT—there are minor indicators that he might be a future great/elite, but mostly he shows as ‘very good’. He’s not in the same class a DT prospect as an Aaron Donald… But who really is? Rankins is going to be a very good pro, with almost no indicators that he could be a bust.

Sheldon Rankins, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:

It’s hard taking Rankins’s production numbers and comparing them other DT prospects, because he wasted some of his time as a defensive end in college—muting his numbers/output. Here’s a comparison of some of the top DT prospect names and their output…

Five or more tackles in a game in their final college season:

6 = Donald, Pitt

5 = Rankins, Louisville

5 = Butler, La. Tech

4 = Billings, Baylor

4 = A. Robinson, Alabama

1 = Nkemdiche, Ole Miss

Career games with 2.0 or more TFLs in a game:

17 = Donald, Pitt

8 = Billings, Baylor

7 = Rankins, Louisville

6 = Butler, La. Tech

4 = A. Robinson, Alabama

3 = Nkemdiche, Ole Miss

Rankins is an active DT, and perhaps his TFL numbers above would have jumped 50%+ had he played DT the entirety of his snaps/career, but he’s still not on Aaron Donald’s level.

Rankins was above average, top tier among all the DT prospects in every measured drill at the NFL Combine. One of the best agility times, high-end bench press, solid-to-good 40-time, nice vertical and broad jump. He’s not off the charts looking at him historically, but he’s one of the most ‘sure’, ‘check all the boxes’ guys we’ve seen at DT.

The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Sheldon Rankins Most Compares Within Our System:

A better version of Sheldon Richardson is on the table, but we underestimated Richardson some coming out of college. Geno Atkins-like, maybe? 

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.

All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

Most scouts and football analysts agree that Rankins is a first-round prospect, and we agree as well. For many, he is their top DT prospect in the class…as he is ours. We have no disagreements with the world on this one. I suspect Rankins will go in the top 10 overall on draft day. There is a chance he could fall outside the top 15 just because this is perceived as a loaded DT prospect class, so there is a supposed lack of pressure to chase any one DT prospect in this draft. I think that sentiment is a little overblown, and the guy I would be chasing out of all of them would be Sheldon Rankins.

If I were an NFL GM, and I had a great need at defensive tackle, and I ran a 4-3 scheme…Rankins is my guy. If my need was great enough, I could see taken Rankins as the #1 pick overall. I only say that because this class is so weak at high-end/elite prospects. I wouldn’t want to take Rankins #1 overall, in general, but I think he is in the argument of the top 5–10 guys in this particular draft…moving higher among the top 10 for any team that has a glaring DT need.

NFL Outlook:   

Rankins may be considered a better pro than he was a college player, again because of the time spent at defensive end in college—it hurt his statistical output capabilities. He may be more noticeable, generate more eye-catching stats and plays in the NFL than he did in college. Rankins will either be ‘good’ or ‘very good’ for a long, long time, if his health holds up, in the NFL. I hate to say anyone is a ‘sure thing’, but he’s pretty close to it relative to the DT prospects in this class.

3/26/2016