NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson

*Our DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

I don't know why, but Shaq Lawson just feels like he should be a better prospect. He was a 2015 consensus all-American, and led all the NCAA in TFLs with 24.5. I really expected to put on the game tape and be blown away…but I wasn't. Honestly, I don't know what's going on with Shaq Lawson, as a prospect. It’s hard to figure out exactly how to project him.

If you watched a highlight reel only on Lawson, you’d see some plays where he looks like he's just out of this world, a physically imposing force of nature. However, when I watch several of his games play-by-play – I wasn't as impressed...from the perspective of wondering if he was one of the top 5–10 prospects in this draft; a possible franchise-changing defensive prospect.

When I watch Lawson on tape, I think I am seeing a future 3–4 scheme defensive end…and a solid one at that. I had it in my mind that Lawson was this heat-seeking missile for opposing backfields, a high-end pass rusher…but despite his terrific TFL and sack numbers from 2015, he plays more of a ‘hold the edge and try to react to the play’ style. Lawson will string several lower-energy plays together, and then he'll explode into the backfield corralling a ball carrier trying to get past him. That's why his highlight reel versus his tape is a little deceiving. He makes some killer plays on occasion, but his norm is just more hanging out and trying to read the situation. When a play is not headed his way, he tends to pull up and watch…versus chasing to see what happens. I never watched his game tapes and thought I was observing something incredible. I was seeing something good, and something NFL-worthy for sure. I was expecting a superstar prospect, but I was just watching a pretty good prospect. Lawson plays the run well, but gives mixed effort. He can close in on a ballcarrier headed his way, but is not always pressuring the backfield. His athleticism is ‘good’ by NFL Combine comparisons. His tape is ‘good’. Lawson is just ‘good’, not great.

Honestly, Shaq Lawson is the Joey Bosa everyone is looking for. Bosa hangs out on the edge trying to read the situation and reacting on most plays. Lawson is a better version of Bosa because he's more instinctive, and more powerful and aggressive getting into the backfield at times. Bosa never seems quite as aggressive or successful getting to the backfield. In addition, comparing the two, Bosa was flailing away as a left defensive end, beating up on mediocre Big Ten teams while Lawson played the prime time spot, the right defensive end – taking on the left tackle. Lawson was more impressive, better statistically working the more difficult side of the D-Line than Bosa. If I had to choose between Bosa and Lawson, I would take Lawson. However, Lawson will not be our top-rated DE prospect in this draft either – rather he's going to fall into that cluster of ‘good’ prospects in the 2016 DE prospect grouping…not a top tier prospect, but the next tier below. Lawson is good, but he’s not what we would deem a ‘franchise changing’ type of prospect.

Shaq Lawson, Through the Lens of Our DE Scouting Algorithm:

Lawson led all of college football with 24.5 TFLs, and was 4th overall in sacks (12.5)…despite that, watching the tape, I was never thinking, ‘Wow, Lawson is just a menace getting to the backfield’. When someone came over to Lawson’s side, they were ripe for Lawson to shed a blocker and launch into a tackle. He quietly got sacks…it was not a fury of him pressuring the QB every other snap, but he would make things happen here and there. It’s possible that Lawson is more of a silent assassin that knows how to turn things on and off as needed. The numbers are a lot better than my sense of the tape.

In his last 21 games, Lawson had 0.5 TFLs or more in 19 games (28.5 TFLs total). Joey Bosa did so 14 times in his last 21 games (14.0 TFLs total).

Lawson registered 1.0 or greater sacks in a game 10 times in his last 15 games. Bosa did the same in four of his last 15 games.

Lawson did not test with any radical attributes at the NFL Combine or at his Pro Day, but everything he did participate in was above average, among the upper group in speed, agility, broad jump, vertical.

I look over all the Lawson data, and consider the tape, and I know Lawson is ‘good’…but we just do not see ‘great’.

The Historical DE Prospects to Whom Shaq Lawson Most Compares Within Our System:

It additionally scares me about Lawson that our system comparisons are players that analysts loved going into the draft, but who never really lived up to the hype in the NFL. They are/were capable, useful, very good at times defensive ends in the NFL…but they did not become all-Pro, ‘franchise’ defensive ends for their teams.

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL DE.

All of the DE ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DE prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DE, a 'bull-rusher', and/or a DE prospect who has some DT capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DEs who profile more as speed-rush, stand-up DEs, and/or possible OLBs.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DE is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the 'system'/scheme the DE goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player's skills and performance history. "You can't keep a good man/DE down," we'd like to think.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DE as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower-scoring DEs in this subcategory tend to be more pure pass-rushers/specialists. This is also our attempt to quantify, if it's possible, the 'toughness' of a player.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

Some mock drafts will show Lawson around pick #15, while others push him towards the back end of the first round…and a few even have him in the early second round. There's not as much love for Lawson as there is Joey Bosa, which I don't understand. Lawson probably deserves to be in the first round, but NFL teams probably see what we see – a guy that's a pretty good player, but not a special one…so how much price do you pay for a good prospect? In the end it will probably be a #20–30-level pick.

If I were in NFL GM, I'd like to have Shaq Lawson, but from everything I've seen he's not going to be a must-have pick. He's not a guy I should chase in the first round. There are a couple other DE prospects that have nice 3–4 scheme ability, who I like pretty well -- and who I could get them in the middle of the draft. Shaq Lawson is not the type of prospect you build your draft around, but he is a player you'd like to get if he fell in your lap.

NFL Outlook:   

Lawson will probably go on to have a solid NFL career. He's not going to be a consistent Pro Bowler, but he's also not going to be a bust. He's going to do a solid job, and for that reason he has some decent draft value. An NFL team may not hit a homerun drafting Lawson, but they're not going to strike out either.

4/1/2016