NFL Draft 2016 Scouting Report: CB Will Jackson, Houston

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available. 

Will Jackson is an interesting scouting study. For some, he's a top 50 overall prospect most people label as 'a sleeper'. The Draftnik and the analytics communities are more inclined to push him as a top 30 overall/first round draft value, with several proclaiming he's the true top cover corner in the 2016 NFL Draft. So which is it?

Jackson is tricky to scout. If you only watch snippets of tape or a highlight reel, you see things you instantly love. Jackson has that cornerback swagger that commands scouts' and fans' attention. There's a lot of aggressive coverage with Jackson, with him battling incoming passes and knocking them down, and then bouncing around the field gyrating his arms to let everyone know he canceled out the play. He has a cocky attitude you're attracted to in a corner prospect…an 'it' kinda look or appearance.

However, the more I watched Jackson play by play, game by game, I started to go from 'maybe this guy is the best cover corner in the draft' to 'wait a minute, is there a problem here'? In general, I believe Will Jackson is a starting corner in the NFL. The question is whether he's a future shutdown corner or an overrated blowhard. I'm getting a little worried the more I watch that he's more bluster than quality.

What I like about Jackson is that he's not afraid to get physical in coverage, especially in press coverage. He has no problem trying to intimidate his opposing receiver. I also see evidence that Jackson may be the most naturally talented coverage guy, mirroring his receiver, among the CB prospects. However, I would not say he has the best technique. It's a hard thing to describe. What I see in Jackson is a guy who just has a sixth sense of reading where his receiver is headed. It's an eerie thing to watch sometimes – how good he is. There's a downside to that that's also eerie/scary. Too many times I see Jackson so confident, so aggressive, that he makes big mistakes on several plays. For every terrific play he makes, he'll give up a head-scratcher in front or behind him. He believes in himself so much that he gets burned by savvy route runners…I think Jackson thinks he can recover from any misstep. He won't as easily in the NFL.

NFL coaches are not always kind and forgiving to cornerbacks who like to gamble all the time, or who like to play by their gut instead of relying more on technique and knowing the situation. When Jackson makes a great defensive pass defense followed by getting burned on something simple, I guarantee coaches, fans, and analysts are not going to go. "Well, they balance each other out!" That never happens. Jackson getting burned will be the fodder for the conversation in that moment, and for the following week, and maybe for years. It's just the way things work.

I think Will Jackson could be one of the 30 best players in this draft, but he comes with risk, so if an NFL team is willing to go there – he could make a ton of sense in the first round. Coverage errors I see with Jackson should be more correctable than not. He has physical skills and some level of instinct that is unteachable. At times, I think I am watching Marcus Peters at work – a guy who can back up his overconfidence. At times, I think I'm watching a guy that's going to be roasted by opponents and then analysts for being out of position too much.

I'm more of a fan of Will Jackson for the draft than not, but I also understand the risk. There are safer cornerbacks a team could take like Eli Apple, where a team will get a sound, quality player, but never an upside to anything special. With Will Jackson a coaching staff could get heartburn…or the next NFL shutdown corner. It's on the table. My computer scouting models say we should bet against elite status, but also acknowledges the possibility it may happen. The possibility, the potential, is worth the draft risk at a certain point.

Will Jackson, Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:

Will Jackson led the NCAA in 2015 with 23 passes defended…and that should be a positive data point, but it scares me. After watching several of his games…I think opposing offenses who knew Jackson and knew his over aggressiveness – and went after him…knowing he's a sloppy gambler at times. I watched Temple WR Robby Anderson beat him often, while at other times Jackson got the best of Anderson. In that one game, Jackson had more passes defended (7) than some corners will have in a season…however, Anderson had 12 catches for 150 yards and a TD, and several other near-misses where he was open and the QB failed.

Will Jackson had a fantastic NFL Combine. The third-fastest 40-time among DBs (4.37). The second-best 10-yard split (1.52). His Pro Day three-cone would have been the seventh-best among DBs at the Combine. The speed-agility is there, at a high level.

You wish Jackson had longer arms (31.75″) and bigger hands (9.25″), but that's nitpicking. The speed-agility is more critical on the measurables front.

The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Will Jackson Most Compares Within Our System:

The computer comps aren't all that great. There are some #1 corners on the list, but more failed #2 corners. It’s a mixed bag…and that’s the conclusion on Jackson – he might be incredible, he might be a disaster.

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis.

COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data

SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc.

AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc. 

POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.

2016 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Jackson listed as a late first-round or early second-round draft pick in most every mock draft these days. I'm going to guess he's going to wind up in the first round, just because he has that look, that swagger of a confident corner that's willing to battle every play, and won't dwell on his mistakes. He'll go right back and attack the very next play. Because Jackson has above-average physical gifts and the look, I gotta believe he will jump into the first round.

If I were an NFL GM, Will Jackson is a bit of a dilemma for me. I understand the coin flip – he's either going to frustrate the hell out of my defensive coordinator, or he's going to become a Pro Bowl shutdown corner. How much am I willing to pay for this risk? From my perspective, I'm sure I will see better assets that fall in the draft that I might rather use my first-round pick on, before taking a gamble with Jackson. However, at a certain point I start debating on taking Jackson depending on what is left on my board as the first round unravels. There's only so many guys you could say 'might be a shutdown corner'… So sometimes you have to swing for the fences on them and be willing to strike out.

NFL Outlook:   

I really don't know what's going to happen with Jackson in the NFL. Nothing would surprise me. I don't think mediocre is going to be among the options. I have a feeling he's either going to be a sad disappointment, or a wonderful revelation.

4/6/2016