NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: WR Kevin White, West Va.

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

I hate to fall in line with what everyone else is saying, but I’m running with the herd: Kevin White is a fantastic WR prospect for the NFL.

Obviously, his speed at the NFL Combine (4.35 40-time), among all the other positive physical traits, cements him as an NFL-ready body. You also don’t have to watch the tape long before you fall in love with his play. He’s a big, physical, great hands, athletic WR…a man among boys at times.

I won’t waste your time echoing praises you have heard from most every football analyst, and what your eyes told you at a glance. I do want to bring up one reason why I think he might be even better than the high praise he is already getting, as well as one negative item to consider. 

The reason why I think White can be even better than the typical glowing reviews, and maybe the best WR prospect in years:

After watching some tape, I hopped on the phone with someone who knows West Virginia football, because I had to know if he saw White the same way that I did. My one main note after studying White in several games in 2014 was: He could have been even better in 2014. West Virginia missed an opportunity. I know that sounds crazy to say that about a guy who caught 106 passes last year, but he might have caught 200+ passes if the Mountaineers desired him to do so.

The West Virginia passing game was annoyingly ‘quick triggered’. To me, they were absolutely in love with getting rid of the ball quickly—and my West Virginia advisor explained that they had to due to the O-Line, which makes sense. Time after time, I would see the QB drop back one step and then quick-fire pre-determined, gimmicky screens and swings to his non-Kevin White options, while not even looking over any other options…almost as if he was ridding himself of a hot potato. That’s fine, because the passes worked and were efficient.

What was lost in most West Virginia 2014 passing game tape, if you only followed the ball, was Kevin White was running real routes, and getting open on every play (unless double-triple teamed). When they did throw the ball downfield to White, often it looked like child’s play—White open by a step or three or five. He would be open jetting deep. He would be open slanting across the middle. He always seemed open one-on-one.

As time went on in 2014, White drew a ton of defensive attention, obviously. However, on opening-day vs. Alabama in 2014…White was still a bit of a ‘nobody’ (coming off a 35 catch, 305 yards, 5 TD season as a Junior). Alabama played White mostly straight-up, and he could have caught 20 passes for 400-yards in that game if the offense had gone more his way. White dominated Alabama in his opportunities. That game above all gives you a glimpse at the greatness of Kevin White…facing a top opponent before he garnered all the overcompensating defensive attention.

White typically saw two types of passes in 2014:

1) Going deep, and the QB pre-deciding he was ‘going for it’ with White (which was wise) and lofting the ball to him right away. If it was catchable, White was typically coming down with it.

2) Bubble screens. Eventually, even in the Alabama game, defenders played off White…which allowed the QB to throw a quick, horizontal pass, and just let White try to make yards/plays.

What you didn’t see much of—slants over the middle or sweet sideline timing routes. You didn’t see that many ‘NFL’ type throws to White. When WVU tried to make those throws, the QB’s passes were typically all over the place. Projecting ahead to the NFL, White has shown can ‘go get it’ deep. He can also be a force taking a simple bubble screen. What he also projects to do well in the NFL, only you didn’t see it as much in college—running timing routes and catching the ball in traffic. White has it all, and we only saw a chunk of it in college. He might be a better pro than college performer. If he lands with a good-great NFL QB, it could be magic on day-one.

The one mild negative I would throw out there…

White is a soft-spoken, affable kid who has battled some confidence issues. I don’t mean it’s some dire mental issue, and that he is a basket case—not at all. I mean, you get a lot of “He doesn’t know how good he can be” or “He just had to believe,” when reviewing what coaches have said about him going back to his JUCO days.

I look at his 2014 output, which is very good, but not totally dominant (looking over the history of elite NFL WRs from their college days). His 2013 output for WVU was flimsy…like he was lost a little bit. You would think a talent like his would walk in and dominate as a JUCO transfer. Some will say he’s raw, but I think he’s fairly polished on the field, but there might be a little ‘muted aggression’ factor in him. It wouldn’t hold me back from drafting him highly, but I would definitely do extra psychological evaluations. In a land of alpha males, on the world’s biggest stage…I’d have a twinge of fear that White could start slow/get overwhelmed right away.

If you foresee White taking 1-2 years to get acclimated, but he’s thrown directly into a bad organization and expected to become a ‘face’ of the franchise, and a team’s sudden #1 WR taking on Richard Sherman or Darrelle Revis, etc.—you wonder whether he will wilt a little initially? Will he get labeled a minor ‘bust’ or disappointment too soon…and will that set him back? I’m not saying that is going to happen, but I think it is a discussion to vet behind closed doors for a team potentially drafting him.

Dez Bryant had a slow start in the NFL—he had ONE 100+ yard game in his first 30 NFL games. Getting jammed in as an ‘ace’ WR day-one is not as easy as some of the 2014 rookies made it look.

Kevin White, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

The only interesting data point from 2014 that pops up from our system is the split between White’s first seven games of 2014, and his final six games. Which also could be noted as his easier schedule, pre-worldwide status games (first seven), and then when his schedule got tougher in the Big-12 and the defenses doubled and tripled him more often (final six):

9.9 catches for 145.7 yards and 1.0 TDs per game = White’s first seven games in 2014

6.7 catches for   71.2 yards and 0.4 TDs per game = White’s final six games in 2014

Still pretty good numbers to finish out but sliced in half of what he did to start 2014. Looking at the tape, I see nothing different other than the additional attention he was getting from defenses.

Looking at White’s physical measurables, you find an obviously fast WR prospect with just ‘good’ measurables all-around…and I mean ‘good’, as kinda just ‘OK’. Kinda ‘OK’ in the sense of judging him as an epic, historical WR prospect—among the elites. All his measurables are good across-the-board, but none (besides speed) are off-the-charts. He has an average vertical. He has ‘good’ agility. His hands are slightly small (9.25”). His height is not ‘towering’ at 6’2.5”. He has no real flaws physically, but not much that makes you fall off your chair either. Judging him among the elites, he’s just ‘a man’.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Kevin White Most Compares Within Our System:

I think an Andre Johnson comparison makes a ton of sense—a big, physical WR who can use speed/power to catch passes over-the-middle and make big plays out of simple throws. He can also go deep and dominate opposing CBs. He’s a red-zone threat, and he’s a 3rd & 3 threat…and a bubble screen or WR-sweep threat.

White’s not as athletic as Julio Jones (rare few are), nor does he have the hands of Larry Fitzgerald (rare few do), but he is at least worth mentioning compared to those players/skills. White short of the greats in individual characteristics, but as an aggregate he’s almost without flaw…which is how I suspect Andre Johnson will be perceived historically. 

White’s a faster Andre Johnson in an era where the rules favor the WR over the DBs…so buckle up.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Kevin White will likely be the #1 WR taken in this Draft. Amari Cooper is also terrific, and DeVante Parker brings something to the table as well, but White gives you a little more size and athleticism. Cooper is going to impress more in a one-on-one interview, but White will pop on paper and with eyeballs. You can’t go wrong either way. I suspect White won’t fall past the NY Jets at #6.

If I were an NFL GM, I’m probably not drafting Kevin White with my top-10 or maybe even top 15-20 pick. That’s not slam on White, I just don’t think WR warrants a top 5-10 pick unless it is beyond special. Even if you argue White is ‘special’, you have to economically consider the deep WR pool in 2014, now this group in 2015, and the groups to come…there will be plenty of WRs to go around as the global shift of the past decade among youths has been to play WR (vs. QB or RB), and it is starting to bear massive WR-fruit into the NFL. I like White a lot, but I would probably have players from other positions higher on my board compared to how high White will really go in the Draft. I’d take him highly at a certain point, because I see little chance of a bust here, not sure I could pull the trigger top-10…but that’s my own bias. He may be one of the ten best players in this draft, but economically another prospect may be a better pull.

NFL Outlook:   

. White’s likely going to be an NFL star. The only question will be—will it happen instantly like it did with some of the 2014 rookie WRs, or is White going to need a year or two to adjust? He’s likely to go a team with weak or suspect QB play, and if so, White may be A+ in our minds now, but after a year or two, he’s just a solid ‘B’…a forgotten man. He’s going to be solid but achieving stardom will depend upon what QB and surrounding cast he is matched up with.

2/26/2015