NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: SAF Landon Collins, Alabama

FS/SS grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

Landon Collins is very solid NFL prospect as a Strong Safety. He’s not a future star. He’s not off-the-charts. He’s just very solid. I preface the report with all this because Collins is being pushed as the best Safety in the 2015 class, and as a top-20 overall pick because of his #1 Safety status. He might be the best Safety prospect in the class--we don’t think so, but he’s up there…however, we definitely don’t see him as a top-32 overall type of talent/value.

Landon Collins is an oversized Safety at 228-pounds…a borderline Safety/OLB, hybrid. There is a problem that he could be a bit slow of foot, a little too clunky to be a great/starting Strong Safety roaming the field, but too small to be a starting OLB in the NFL as well.

He has the speed to be a top Safety (4.5+), but he has mediocre to below-average agility. He has the straight-line speed that makes him look impressive when he charges forward…he’s like a freight train at 228-pounds. However, make him change course, or cover a WR down-field…and he struggles to shift his feet with the quickness needed in the NFL. He’ll struggle to track a shifty NFL RB in the open field as well. I saw it on tape at Alabama—he’s nice moving straight, but more suspect adjusting to grab after an elusive, better talented ballcarrier or covering quicker/shifty Tight Ends.

Collins is a solid tackler. He has nice instincts. His ability in the open field is in question—at least considering him as a high-end Safety/high draft pick. He belongs in the NFL, but we’re not sure he’ll be an obvious or effective starter. He’ll be useful, and good teammate, just not worthy of a top draft pick.

It can be difficult scouting Alabama Safety prospects because their team/defense is so good, that it allows their Safeties to play a more freewheeling style. They can gamble more, knowing the other guys can pick up the slack…they can also play things safer, and pick their spots because others will make plays. Alabama Safeties can look so good on highlight reels.

I worry Collins is just like many Alabama prospects—slightly overrated, and comes into the league with expectations they cannot live up to. Collins is very good/solid, he's not great. He’s not going to bust on you, but I’m not sure he can live up to ‘best in class’ among the Safety prospects for 2015.

I see one path where he can become more of a ‘sure thing’ in the pros—if Collins drops 10+ pounds, and plays at 215-pounds, and that weight drops pushes him as a 4.4+ speed guy with better agility, then we can get a little more excited. A 215-pound Landon Collins might actually be the best in class…I’m not sure why he carried that extra weight to the NFL Combine. Had he come in at 215-pounds, and ran a 4.45 40-time with better agility, he would have closed the door on the ‘top Safety’ debate.

Landon Collins, Through the Lens of Our SAF Scouting Algorithm:

I don’t know that it means anything, but in 2014 Landon Collins averaged a stellar 11.2 total tackles per game in contests outside of the SEC, but just a more solid/mediocre 6.2 tackles per game in the SEC. Collins played a decent out of conference schedule, including the final four game, so it isn’t an awful trend of beating up on weaker opponents…it’s just odd. The year prior (2013), Collins averaged 5.2 tackles per game in the SEC. Collins was a more muted player in conference the past two years

Other than the odd dip in his SEC performance, there are no eye-opening data trends to report. Everything is solid across the board.

Athletically, he was the biggest Safety prospect at the NFL Combine (228-pounds), and the least agile…and that’s an issue for the next level. The potential being that if he cuts 15-pounds, and becomes more ‘average’ in agility to go along with above-average speed…then you have a better prospect ‘on paper’.

The Historical SAF Prospects to Whom Landon Collins Most Compares Within Our System:

If Collins can cut the weight, you could see a Patrick Chung-type player here…maybe. The comparison list is not that exciting, which plays to my point that Collins is good, but how valuable is he for the NFL? A 1st-rounder, really? Collins is hard to profile because he’s such a heavy (weight) Safety prospect. There haven’t been many like him in our database.

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0.

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college SS/FS prospects, with a focus on which SS/FS prospects went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL SS/FS's had in common in college, that most other SS/FS prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.0+ in our system is where we start to take a SS/FS prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL-successful college SS/FS prospects scored 8.0+ in our system, and most of the NFL-superior FS/SSs pushed ratings more in the 9–10.0+ levels overall. Future NFL busts will sneak into the 8.0+ rating range from time to time.

TACKLE/STRENGTH METRIC -- A combination of physical measurables and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the SS/FS as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, forced fumbles, and physical hits to separate a WR from the ball. It also gives some insight into the "toughness" of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

SPEED/COVERAGE METRIC -- A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements as well as college performance. A unique measuring system to look for SS/FS prospects that profile for superior coverage skills and abilities.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Most analysts show Landon Collins as a 1st-round pick by default, as they have him as the top Safety in the draft…so he gets jammed to a team with a perceived need at Safety. He’s debatable as the top Safety, but even if he is the top guy…I’d argue he is not a 1st-round talent. You have ‘Alabama’ which always skews people’s impressions of a prospect, plus he already has the draft analyst’s momentum, so I’ll assume Collins will be taken in the 1st-round.

If I were an NFL GM, I’m not worrying about any draft strategy on Collins…I know he’ll be gone by pick #40. I’m not wasting a high draft pick on a mediocre-to-good Safety prospect. I can find Safety’s all over. Deone Bucannon (2014) was one of the best Safety prospects we’ve graded in years, and I could have had him at pick #27 last year (I would have taken him top-15). Collins is nowhere near as good as Bucannon…but may be drafted higher in 2015. Not for me.

NFL Outlook:   

Collins has enough skill to play right away for a team that needs him, and he’s likely to be taken top-30 by a team needing a Safety…so he’ll play right away and probably disappoint right away unless he transforms his body some. Collins will be a solid member of any team, with a shot to be a Pro Bowl level type player, but most likely he’ll fall short of that…struggling with his agility, and winds up just a good/useful defender for his career, and that’s it.

4/6/2015