NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. 

4/15/15 Update:

Three interesting things have occurred since our original scouting report on Marcus Mariota from January 2015:

1) Mariota’s draft status decline

Mariota went from being the consensus #1 QB and prospect in the draft, to getting people nervous after Ohio State ‘handled’ him in the CFB title game…and he is now debated as whether he’ll be the #2 pick to TEN or a trade up to PHI, or whether he’ll just fall straight to #20 for Chip Kelly. Right now, Mariota is all over the place on draft projections.

It was almost assured that Jameis Winston would go #1 a week+ ago, but now that position seems to be buckling a little bit. There is a renewal of “Mariota is better than Winston” dissenters popping up. I’ve always been one of them. Nationally, you could only whisper it to close friends in a remote safe house in February and March, but in April the tide is changing--and the whispers are becoming more full volume.

2) Mariota ran very well at the NFL Combine

I was shocked. I did not think Mariota was a 4.5+ runner. I figured him more as a high 4.6s or low 4.7s. His 40-time and agility times are very impressive. It made me re-look at the runner aspect of Mariota on tape. I thought Mariota was more a college gimmick runner in the Oregon system. There might be a lot more to his mobile ways than I previously gave him credit for.  

3) His Wonderlic score has been leaked

He scored a 33, which is pretty good. All I wanted to know for sure was that it wasn’t ‘bad’...it wasn’t.

We’ve updated our QB rankings based on the NFL Combine data and the Wonderlic leaks happening, and I wanted to re-touch on Mariota because he is getting ready to hit an important level in our grading system.

Marcus Mariota NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: Update (2.0)

Many of us, scout and fan, have questions on Marcus Mariota: Is he a product of the Oregon ‘system’? Can he complete medium and deep passes well enough at the next level? Is his frame too thin to effectively run/scramble around at the next level?

You know what?

Piss and moan. Piss and moan. Piss and moan. That’s all we do…about all QBs. I’m guilty of it just like we all are. Everyone’s unhappy with their teams QB…just like everyone hates politicians. QBs can do no ‘right’ unless they win a Super Bowl, repeatedly. We hate Alex Smith because he didn’t throw TDs to WRs last season, so who cares that he is 38-16 as a starter the last four seasons with 71 TD/23 picks! Jay Cutler is too mopey looking. Andy Dalton can’t win a playoff game…who cares that he got his previously pathetic franchise to four-straight playoff appearances? Joe Flacco had one lucky year. Peyton Manning’s arm is shot, and he can’t play in the cold. Why did Russell Wilson throw that pass at the end of the Super Bowl? Sure, Nick Foles had a legendary season in 2013, but he wasn’t as good in 2014. Mid-last season, the discussion (after a blowout loss to KC) was whether it was time to trade Tom Brady.

Everyone would run their company differently than the current CEO. Every politician is crooked, and every team needs a better QB…complaining is oxygen for arm chair critics...like me.

OK, so Marcus Mariota is unproven in a medium to deep passing game. Not as many reps traditionally throwing down field in the Oregon system as there would be in a 'pro' offense. Fine. Does this mean we throw everything else out? He has an NFL arm. He has terrific feet. He’s the right size. He’s a ‘winner’. He’s the right character and IQ. He was unbelievable in the college offense he was asked to run. Is he a flawed QB prospect? Yes…like all QB prospects.

I have my doubts that Mariota ‘works’ in a traditional NFL offense. I wouldn’t guarantee that he’d flop in his transition, but I think it’s worth questioning. I’ve seen dicey decisions by him working downfield against top competition in pressure situations—but he didn’t face those situations very often. Perhaps he’s not ‘ready-made’ for New England or Jacksonville or Tampa or Tennessee. Which QB prospect is in the last five years?

What you do have in Mariota is most all the qualities you are looking for in a NFL ‘hopeful’ at QB. For that reason, I think you have to take him more seriously as a top prospect. He’s far superior to Jameis Winston in our book, as a QB and as a human, but not as good (maybe equal to) as Brett Hundley. I’m OK if you see a coin flip between Hundley-Mariota.

There is one game-changer in all of this as far as Mariota’s NFL prospectus goes…

If Mariota or Hundley winds up to Philadelphia with Chip Kelly…marrying their mobility-accuracy-character skills with the most innovative offense in recent history…it could be sensational. Marcus Mariota on the Buffalo Bills or NY Jets…trouble for sure. On Philly, he could be the Rookie of the Year.

If you ask Tyler Lockett to play Calvin Johnson’s role in the NFL…it won’t work. If you ask Todd Gurley to be the next Darren Sproles…why would you do that? If you ask Marcus Mariota to play in a traditional-style it could be a bumpy NFL ride. Put him in the system he excelled at in college…why wouldn’t he be a star? If Mark Sanchez can look decent for Chip Kelly, imagine Mariota.

Mariota is close to achieving a ‘passing grade’ in our scouting formulas after a nudge from his Combine and the Wonderlic affirmation and is now in the debate for best QB in the class. I would sum up our computer’s feelings this way:

Mariota on Tennessee or Tampa Bay is a ‘C+’ grade projected QB with a chance to be a ‘B’ in his career. So his scouting grade playing on 29-30+ teams in the NFL is a ‘C’ talent with ‘B’ hopes...long shot as an 'A'. However, Mariota on Philly with Chip Kelly is different...a ‘B’ prospect with ‘A’/elite output hopes. We cannot project him for the full upside as we base the evaluation on his talent for the pro game—and odds are likely he will join one of 29-31 teams employing a more traditional offense.

Below is our updated Mariota grade and comparisons. Just add a full 1.0 grade point if he is drafted by Chip Kelly.

Updated NFL Draft Outlook…

I believe there is about a 25% chance that Marcus Mariota is the #1 pick in the draft. I’d bet against him going #1, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened. I think there is a 50% chance he will be traded up for by Philly…whatever that means/takes.

If I were an NFL GM, I’m still taking Brett Hundley for the value (he may be available 2nd-round), and for the skill—Hundley successfully worked down field in his career, Mariota not so much. Hundley was not a gimmick passer like Mariota. With Mariota, I have to wonder if he can transition. With Hundley, I’m not as worried. Both are good, flawed QB prospects. I’m liking Mariota a little more as this process rolls on, but I’m still a healthy skeptic. Considering how valuable the QB position is in the NFL—he is worthy of being the #1 pick overall…and then close your eyes and pray.

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ORIGINAL REPORT...Jan 2015

NFL Draft 2015: Statistical Analysis and Scouting Report of QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

*This report was written/filed pre-OSU title game.

How do I properly convey the alternative opinion I have on scouting Marcus Mariota--given some/many of you are likely sold on him…lock, stock, and barrel? By now, we’ve all been branded by the media with the fact that Mariota is the QB savior of the 2015 QB Draft class, and if you had any doubts, he outplayed Jameis Winston in the Final Four game…you saw that, right? Mariota is the best QB prospect, a future elite, and should be the #1 overall pick--debate over…as far as the masses are.

It’s not over, and I don’t need to see the Ohio State title game for any more evidence. I’ve seen enough of the Mariota tape…it’s the same game for 2+ years. One more watch isn’t going to make a difference.

Marcus Mariota is a ‘magic trick’…a clever sleight of hand. If you want to see it through, you really have to slow the tape down, and observe the details frame-by-frame so you are not distracted from the truth because you are wrapped up too deeply in the ‘magician’s act’, or attention diverted by the good-looking magician’s assistant.

Chip Kelly is a genius. Furthering the quest of Bill Walsh, Kelly has designed an offense that makes the QB somewhat irrelevant. Now, I know you have to have some ‘real’ skill to pull this off…I get that. But, honestly, most ‘good’ college QBs could run this ‘Oregon offense’ successfully. You know it is a genius college system, because every other college in America will be running it within another few years. It’s simple in its complexity. The Pros will be soon to follow.

I’m not taking pot shots at the ‘Oregon offense’ because I’m ‘Grandpa stuck in his ways’…preferring ‘three yards and a cloud of dust’. I think this new offense is brilliant, but I also think it completely hides the QB…actually, even more magical/impressive, it makes the QB appear to be ‘great’…when they are not.

You probably watched the Oregon-FSU playoff game. You may still have it on your DVR. Watch it again if you like. In a make-believe world of my own design, I would ask you to watch every throw by Mariota—but then ignore all the short, quick passes, and simple screens to just focus on the passes traveling 10-15+ yards. I would save you a lot of time watching this game…because you’d only have to watch a handful of plays.

The ‘Oregon offense’ is basically a souped-up version of the West Coast offense…short, quick (low probability of turnover) passes that essentially act as ‘extended hand-offs’. Only in the modern day, instead of just simple, swing pass throws to RBs, nowadays you get the WRs involved in those ‘extended handoffs’ as well. The output is genius—high completion percentage ways to get the ball in the hands of playmakers away from the D-Line. If a talented, speedy WR breaks one tackle--it’s off to the races. Meanwhile, the QB enjoys 100% accuracy, and a compilation of yards. A statistical ‘magic trick’ for the QB.

If you just watch the passes where Mariota has to/chooses to throw the ball downfield…the ball travelling 10+ yards past line of scrimmage (LOS)—he’s a completely different QB. A challenge for videographers out there: Chop up a tape of all Mariota’s throws that travel 10+ yards from the LOS and do so in games where he is facing better teams/defenses, and post it on YouTube. There is a reason why Mariota has a 1-2 record, with under 60% completions against Stanford in his career.

I’m not saying Mariota is incompetent to complete 10+ yard passes, I’m just scouting that he is not very adept or ‘good’ at them. Those passes don’t look ‘good’, and he doesn’t look comfortable or menacing against bigger-better teams when he has to be a traditional pocket passer. Against Florida State in the Final Four, most of Mariota’s deeper throws all had a similar theme…off-target (over a head or underthrown), wobbly, limited velocity, and incomplete. This is especially true when he is kept in the pocket. When a play breaks down, and Mariota scrambles around, he does a great job finding an open receiver…and usually wide-open. However, when traditionally dropping back (pressure or not), he is a completely different QB than the guy throwing all the cool, quick lateral passes out of the backfield.

I am not calling Mariota a ‘bust’ either. In fact, I’m sure he’ll be a starter NFL QB, and deserves to be…he has some skills to work with that others who ran this style of college offense to a high draft status (Manziel, Bortles, et al) did not, but he’s still very flawed walking in the NFL door. If you get something from him, it will probably take a couple of years development—and likely the NFL team who grabs him in 2015 is not waiting that long.

Mariota is a much better reader of defenses than the typical ‘Pistol’ QBs coming out of college lately. He does a good job of mixing up his looks, coming off a 1st-read, and going to a second one…but even that looks planned. Again, like a sleight of hand…a quick play pattern of: quick pass, quick pass, screen pass, quick pass, and then shoulder-fake the quick pass, but throw to a WR streaking as the DB got sucked in coming up to play the quick pass out of the backfield—all of which is a pre-determined ‘bet’. Mariota does it well, but it won’t be as simple in the pros, because they’ll string out that quick backfield pass all day long. As Mark Sanchez learned with Chip Kelly (and as Philly fans learned), eventually you have to work downfield under duress…and that’s when the ‘magic’ begins to get exposed.

Mariota runs this ‘Pistol’ style of offense very well—so if you turn to him, as an NFL organization, you have to build the offense to fit his skill. Any team that drafts him to be a traditional passer is going to be in trouble. Mariota guides this ‘Oregon offense’ efficiently and makes quick decisions. There is a place for that in the NFL, but after the initial euphoria of ‘the new guy’ wears off…you wind up with Ryan Tannehill or a neo-Geno Smith (more on that reference in a minute).

Mariota is a quality human, and we all know that. We know he’s a hard worker and will be supported by his teammates. An NFL team is not inheriting any baggage here…they just aren’t getting a high-level ‘plug & play’ franchise QB in 2015 either.

Marcus Mariota, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

It’s hard to nitpick Mariota’s college numbers, because they are very impressive—but we also know they are ‘pushed’ by a lot of simplistic passes he gets passer credit for. I mean check out these numbers from his senior season: 71.2% Comp. Pct. with 4,205 yards, and 42 TDs/6 INTs.

Is that not amazing?

Those numbers are stellar…and they also belong to Geno Smith in his senior season at West Virginia. Why do I invoke the name of Geno Smith here? Two reasons:

(1) Geno ran a similar offense (a series of quick-hitter, low-risk/read passes), in a respected conference, and had similar/better results, statistically. In Mariota’s Heisman winning campaign of 2014, he posted (pre-OSU title game): 68.6% Comp. Pct. with 4,121 passing yards, and 40 TD/3 INT…a similar run to Geno’s number’s above.

(2) The early January draft chatter from the experts in 2013 was whether Geno Smith or Matt Barkley would be the #1 overall pick in that draft—as Mariota is ‘a given’ as a #1-2 pick in January 2015 (pre-OSU game).

The ‘Oregon’ style of offense pushes mediocre QBs to achieve passer numbers in college that makes draft analyst’s jaws drop, but their play in the NFL inevitably leaves us wanting. I think we have all seen enough of Geno, Johnny Football, E.J. and RG3…no? Those were all QBs from a gimmicky/Pistol offense, who everyone thought was going to excel in the NFL too. Before Marcus Mariota, some thought Oregon QB Darron Thomas might have a nice NFL future. College offensive styles can push prospect numbers, and will confuse analysts and fans. Yet, no matter how many times it happens…they’re lining up again the next year falling in the same trap.

Another knock against Mariota is going to be his 40-time and agility times from the NFL Combine. He would be wise to skip those drills, I think. It seems like Mariota is this cool dual-threat QB, a slick passer and nifty runner, but I see a guy who runs about a 4.7-4.8+ 40-time with mediocre agility (speaking in NFL terms).

In college, the ‘magician’ (Mariota) sucks the defense into the up-the-middle run, and then pulls the hand-off, and runs naked himself…untouched for 5-10-15+ yards, and then slides to complete a job well done. In the NFL, that will work from time to time, but if you think Mariota is going to scramble around, and then take off like RG3, or Johnny Manziel…or even Geno Smith—you’re crazy. I would almost bet Geno’s 40-time is faster than what Mariota puts up at the NFL Combine. Mariota is ‘college fast’, not ‘NFL fast’.

If you strip away the notion of a magical runner, then what do we have for the NFL—a kinda mobile QB in a QB-friendly system with a mediocre arm…who is also a really nice guy? Some NFL team is going to spend millions on ‘hope’ in a few months.

The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Marcus Mariota Most Compares Within Our System:

I’ve made the Geno Smith comparison, but that was just to poke holes in Mariota’s 2014 statistical output, which was probably making your head explode with joy. The QB, who I think I see when I study Marcus Mariota is a little Geno Smith, but a lot of Derek Carr. Guys who scouts will fall in love—great character and personality. Nice height, and stronger arms with a track record of big numbers in college. There is a ton to love visually, but in the end you have an up & down, flawed NFL passer—a QB who is used to having his way in a magical offense against weaker opponents.

They are also guys who can put up numbers in the NFL, because they keep throwing…even if the game is well out of hand. They belong in the NFL but are on that lower tier of QBs who hold a spot, but aren’t taking your franchise far unless everything else (defense, WR group, running game, etc.) is hitting on a cylinders.

*“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

**A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going onto become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.

QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Marcus Mariota is tracking as the #1 overall pick for most right now, and at least is in everyone’s top-3. If you put Mariota in a Derek Carr class, then in most NFL Drafts he would be a top 20-25 overall pick. However, this QB class is a little thin, and QB is so critical…I would wager Mariota is a top-5 draft pick, and a possible #1 overall. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he tumbled out of the top-10. If I had to bet, he goes top-5, but don’t be shocked when the critique arrows start flying his way concerning his gimmicky offense, and/or if he is confounded by Ohio State in the title game—then his stock may really take a hit.

If I were an NFL GM of a team picking in the top-3, and we desperately needed a QB—I would pass on Mariota to pick a top prospect at another position and try to make a deal to acquire an existing QB (Foles, Nassib, Glennon). I would not want to bet my NFL GM career on Mariota, because I think the upside is so limited, but the downside could be breathtaking. I have yet to see the read-option/Pistol QBs come in and take over the NFL world…in fact, the jig on that seems to be up…the clock is striking midnight on the Pistol QBs in the NFL. It’s a cinder block falling in deep water, and I don’t want my faux GM future tied to it.

NFL Outlook:   

Mariota ends up drafted highly, and pushed into a starting lineup too early…and has up and down moments, leaving a team with hope (a la Derek Carr)…but then, after a few seasons, you realize you gone as far as you can (like a Ryan Tannehill)—and you have a huge organizational dilemma. You get kinda stuck with Jay Cutler or Ryan Tannehill because it’s hard to do better (only so many great QBs created by God), but you know you need to. Mariota will be a decent/plausible NFL starter, but I don’t think we’ll ever see him as worth the high draft pick or look back and see a great-elite QB.

4/15/2015