NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: CB Marcus Peters, Washington

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available. 

I’m going to go the opposite direction on Marcus Peters.

Opposite of the mainstream vibe, and opposite of my first impression.

The world says: “Peters is as talented a corner as there is in this NFL Draft. The top-ranked guy, IF not for the off-field issues.”

I say, “The same people that are massively overrating Trae Waynes and Jalen Collins, are about to deal you another ‘bad card’ here with Peters.”

My first walk through of basic tape (highlight-ish stuff) was pretty favorable on Peters. He seemed like a nice cover corner with lock down skills. Once I saw his NFL Combine results, and then our weaker computer grades and comps…I knew something was up. I sat down to watch some game-by-game tape, and think I noticed the problem.

Let me first paint a picture with the measurables: Not good.

‘Not good’ for a supposed elite NFL corner prospect. He has decent size (5’11”+, 197), but there’s not high-end athleticism here…a 4.5+ runner with a 1.61 10-yard split is ‘not good’ for NFL speed or acceleration. His 7.08 three-cone measurement is scary—for a supposed top guy. He is a small-handed, slower, limited-agility cornerback…so why does everyone think he is so great?

For two flawed reasons, I suspect:

(1) His highlight reel, and college game logs/data, show a nice run of interceptions in college (11 picks in 34 games). He is involved in the action…it easy to see him on tape ‘looking good’ on select plays. Which lends itself to an important point…

I think the Washington Huskies defensive talent upfront was so good, that it gave the secondary a more favorable atmosphere to work within. It allowed Peters a luxury to sit back and ball hawk…and make big plays. QBs, by and large, did not have a ton of time to let patterns develop. On occasion, QBs were  throwing the ball while getting hit, and offering wounded ducks to the defensive gods…to be picked-off downfield.

Peters played way off a lot of his WRs…almost in a zone, a rover waiting to make a play on errant throws. He had the luxury of keep things in front of him because QBs had little time to work the secondary. It’s possible that the Washington defensive philosophy made Peters look more fantastical than he really is—just a gut feeling.

Not that he wasn’t a very good college corner. He was. His NFL Combine numbers make him a very good college CB…but more of a so-so one for the NFL.

(2) Peters acts like a tough-guy cornerback. He flails up and down, and gets in WR’s faces after the play…jawing, etc. He’s demonstrative and diva-ish. He draws attention to himself. Boring CB prospects like UConn’s Byron Jones or Utah’s Eric Rowe just go about their business, and QBs tend to stay away from them…they’re easily overlooked. Peters acts like he hit the lottery after some basic or nice plays. He gets your visual attention, but it doesn’t mean his shtick translates elite to the NFL.

His measurables scream ‘solid-not-special’ for the NFL. His attitude screams ‘future headache’ for the coaches.

On the talent side, you have a so-so measured athlete at an acceptable (not amazing) size—one who might be just a really solid cover guy in the NFL, or just ‘OK’ in the NFL because of his mediocre size-athleticism package. Perhaps, you have a ‘B’ talent here, maybe a ‘C’…’A’ doesn’t appear to be on the board.

How much is it worth investing in a ‘B-C’ talent who comes with a load of headaches off-the-field? He was suspended, then kicked off his college team for mouthing off to coaches in 2014. Some reports say he choked an assistant coach. Some evaluators are discounting him further for running around with Marshawn Lynch in the off-season. How much is a ‘B-C’ talent with ‘D-F’ off-field issues worth? To me, all these top 30-40 projections on Peters are crazy. I don’t want him in my locker room as a personality, but I also call into to question how well he translates to the NFL as a starting CB on talent alone…I don’t think he is a for-sure starter-level talent (on a stable team).  

Marcus Peters, Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:

I can’t help but notice that Washington couldn’t beat anyone worth a damn in the entire time Peters was a top CB for them. In the past three years, facing Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and LSU…the Huskies posted a 2-11 record. This is a Washington team that went to three bowl games, but getting over on weaker teams. You cannot blame it all on Peters, but Marcus Mariota, Zach Mettenberger, Brett Hundley, and Matt Barkley went 6-0 vs. this Washington defense the past three seasons…dropping 13 TD/2 INTs. It’s not all Peters’ fault, obviously. I’m just questioning his real impact in general.

Peters had 11 interceptions in his career, and three of them against FCS schools.

Peters posted NFL Combine numbers similar to Miami, Ohio’s Quinten Rollins. They measured about the same size, speed, agility. Rollins had a fantastic college debut transitioning from basketball to football in one season, and is an interesting, raw prospect…but everyone left the NFL Combine disappointed with his speed-agility times, and dropped him down draft boards. Peters was very similar in his efforts, only he comes with a ton of off-field baggage…and yet everyone is making excuses and propping up Peters as a top prospect….whereas Rollins is paying a price for the same measurables. I don’t get it.

The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Marcus Peters Most Compares Within Our System:

There are some Morris Claiborne similarities here—a CB prospect everyone signed-off on as a future star pre-Draft, but (to me) was showing tendencies that he was just an average translation to the NFL. Obviously, he has struggled in the NFL. I think Peters could be headed that way…plus all the extra issues.  

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0

OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good-great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve.

Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis.

COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data

SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc.

AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc. 

POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Most projections show Peters as a being selected in the range around pick #25-40. I have to believe his so-so Combine numbers mixed with the off-field troubles is going to push him down further than—late 2nd-round or into the third.

If I were an NFL GM, I would have Peters off my draft board. It would be one thing if he were a one-of-a-a-kind athlete with issues, but a so-so physical specimen with issues who would take up a top-100 pick…no thanks.

NFL Outlook:   

Peters will be selected with higher expectations and be a letdown quickly; I suspect. He’ll make fans excited initially, then we’ll all forget about him 2-3 years from now. It’s not certain doom and gloom. I could see him turning his life around, honing his craft and being a useful NFL CB…but that’s the longer odds likelihood. Hopefully, he bucks the odds and breaks through. History says he won’t.

3/8/2015