NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: WR Jarvis Landry, LSU

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Among the smaller (size), 2014 WR prospects, you will not find a WR with better hands than Jarvis Landry. He has 10.25", big TE sized-hands, and he knows how to use them. His highlight reel is filled with one-handed catches, and he almost never drops a pass he can legitimately get his hands on.

Among the smaller (size), 2014 WR prospects, you will be hard-pressed to find a WR who measures worse athletically than Jarvis Landry. He is a 4.6+ 40-time runner with terrible agility, vertical leap, and bench press...other than that he's awesome.

This is going to be a bizarre scouting conundrum, because we not just talking about a mild opposite end of the spectrum between hands and athleticism. We are talking about the BEST hands and the WORST athlete among the top 20-30-40-50+ WR prospects in this draft.

What you see on tape is a savvy WR, kind of a mini-Anquan Boldin. Landry moves through a zone smartly, and is reliable to make the catch...even a miracle catch. You watch the college tape, and you love the guy (which is why he was top-5 among WR prospects to start this process for the mainstream). However, you look at the measurables and there is almost no way...no way he can get open and work in the NFL.

I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but we are not talking about mediocre measurables...he has awful athletic measurables. On paper, he is simply too slow, too un-agile, and too overall unathletic to be anything more than a bit player in the NFL.

I list all those negatives, but I know our system missed on Wes Welker and Anquan Boldin. We have a blind spot for WRs who have sensational hands and awareness. If there is a "Boldin-Welker" lifeline to be extended, this would be the WR to extend it on.

The problem with projecting a "next Welker" or "next Boldin" (i.e. WRs who defy the Combine numbers) is that there is likely no Welker without Tom Brady. Someone special at QB has to make use of what Welker-Boldin brings to the table. Landry's hands will always be great. Landry working with Aaron Rodgers could become a 100+ catch a year WR we all love, and one that you will throw tomatoes at us for ever doubting. Landry working with Jake Locker or E.J. Manuel...and he will never be heard from again.

There is a fine line between being the next Anquan Boldin...or the next Jason Avant.

Jarvis Landry, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

There's not much to pick at with Jarvis Landry's on-field performance. He had 77 catches for 1,193 yards and 10 TDs in 2013. Those are nice numbers, but when we consider he played for an LSU team loaded with NFL talent you might expect a little more...especially in games against the better competition.

Landry scored 50% of his 2013 TDs (5 of 10) out of conference with TCU, UAB, and Kent State. He will not be a TD-maker in the pros. He is too short (5'11") and too slow to be a major weapon around the red-zone.

In his final seven games of 2013, as the schedule stiffened, Landry averaged 5.0 receptions, 82.4 yards, 0.42 TDs per game. Those are solid numbers, but not mind-blowing.

We should probably consider that Zach Mettenberger isn't a great passing QB, and this was more of a run-first team, so someone with the unique skills of Landry may have been under-exposed against the better competition on the LSU schedule. Landry needs a pinpoint tactician, but that's not Mettenberger.

When Anquan Boldin slid away from Kurt Warner, he averaged 5.0 TD catches per year (2009-2013). Boldin had a monster season in 2005 (102 catches and 1,402 yards), but outside of that he has averaged 70.0 yards per game for his career. Not to tear down Boldin, but he has been more 'good' than great (but sensational in the playoffs). We think that Landry is a shorter, poor man's version of Boldin...so he might be solid in the NFL, but not an elite weapon.

Of the 40+ "Small WR" names we have researched so far, there are none with any worse of a vertical leap (28.5") or three-cone time (7.5+) than Landry. That has to scare scouts to death...I know our computer models hate it.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Jarvis Landry Most Compares Within Our System:

When our system was searching for size and athletic matches to Jarvis Landry in our system, it defaults to taller (than Landry) WRs...because the bigger, bulkier guys are where you find matches to Landry's underwhelming athleticism numbers.

We really see this coming down to: Is Landry the next Anquan Boldin, or is he the next Jason Avant? Both great 'hands' guys, but not game-changers from a YAC and long TD perspective. The problem with making a too simplistic comparison to Boldin or Avant is that Landry is 1"+ inch shorter and 5-10 pounds lighter than them. He may not have the body that can take the over-the-middle beating that the bigger guys can.  

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2014 NFL Draft Outlook:

Some national draft analysts are sticking by an earlier love for Jarvis Landry, projecting him as a 2nd-round draft pick. Others have been slowly moving Landry into the 3rd-round due to the poor athletic measurements. Most NFL draft boards, I believe, are cemented earlier in the process, so I will assume NFL teams are on-board with Landry as a 2nd-round value. He will not slide much into the 3rd-round would be our prediction, with late 2nd-round likely.

If I were an NFL GM, I couldn't do it. I could not pull the trigger on Landry on Day-2 of the draft. The measurables are just too bad for me. I want WRs who might be huge difference-makers, and Landry is not one of them. He might be an excellent pro's pro, but I would want 'special' when using a 2nd or 3rd-round pick. I'd like to take a look at him as a 5th+ rounder, but that's not likely to be an option.

NFL Outlook:   

There are more bust/forgotten quickly NFL-flags showing, versus data which shows Landry as a good-great starting WR in the NFL. We are looking at two extremes: He falls on the right team and grabs 100+ catches a year, or he lands in a bad spot and is a ghost for 3-4 years. He has NFL hands and IQ, but it can be wiped out by his poor athleticism. We could be wrong here, but I am going to trust the data and believe that there is too big a mountain to climb here.

4/11/2014