NFL Draft 2014 Scouting Report: WR Odell Beckham Jr., LSU

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much. 

Odell Beckham Jr. may be the most bizarre scouting conundrum that I have seen in a while. He has one of the most perfectly sculpted, gifted bodies for a smaller WR that you will in this draft or any other. He's a solid 5'11"+, 198-pounds and can run a low 4.4s 40-time with sensational agility. He has huge hands, long arms, and a great vertical. He is almost everything you would want in a smaller, speedy WR prospect. However, there is one major, frightening, scary, head-scratching problem...that we'll get to in a moment.

If you didn't catch the elite athleticism on paper with Beckham Jr., then just turn on the tape, and it won't take long to figure it out. His highlight reel is filled with amazing leaping catches and sweet runs through traffic for big players, whether as a WR or as a punt/kick returner. Just watching highlight reels, Beckham has to be the best WR in this draft.

Beckham Jr's background is a "life's lottery" win of sorts. His Dad was a former LSU RB, and his Mom a six-time NCAA track All-American. The parents have an amazing back-story, and have been quite an untraditional support system for Beckham Jr. By all accounts, Beckham is a great person and teammate.

There is so much to love here. That's why this next part makes absolutely no sense, and should shake you to your core if you see Beckham as the 'sleeper' of this WR class.

Odell Beckham Jr., Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

Allow me to blow your mind for a moment, because no one (I am aware of) is pointing out what I am about to. The draft analysts all have Beckham Jr. as their big-time WR sleeper in this draft, and I think I know why. They are only looking at that highlight reel. Beckham Jr's highlight reel has magical powers. It has the power to shift you completely away from a stunning fact.

Check this out...

4.8 receptions, 93.1 rec. yards, 0.66 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. in 12 games

You got that stat line above. That's all his game output for 2013. It equates to 57 catches for 1,117 yards and 8 TDs, which is a pretty solid year, right? Check out this output line...

4.6 receptions, 77.9 rec. yards, 0.22 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. in 9 SPECIFIC games

The above data is in nine specific 2013 games. Where did the other three games go? I took them out because they were against woefully overmatched Furman, UAB, and Kent State. You know what Beckham Jr. did in those three games?

5.3 receptions, 138.7 rec. yards, 2.00 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Furman, UAB, Kent State

You know what happens when Beckham Jr. played Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M...a.k.a. the more NFL-like talented programs he faced in 2013?

4.2 receptions, 63.2 rec. yards, 0.00 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Ala, Aub, Ga, Fla, Texas A&M

Statistically speaking, Odell Beckham Jr. is a mediocre SEC WR when you strip away his performance against lower-level opponents.

In the past two seasons, 26 games, Beckham Jr. has scored 12 TDs. Ten of them as a WR, and two on punt returns. Nine of his 12 TDs the past two seasons have come against: Towson, North Texas, Furman, UAB, and Kent State. His other three TDs came against Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

Beckham Jr. has posted seven 100+ yard receiving games in his college career. Four of them came against out of conference teams: Towson, Furman, UAB, TCU.

In his career, Beckham Jr. has one career TD against a nine win or greater team (West Virginia 2011).

In 23 career SEC games, Beckham Jr. has three 100+ yard games...the rest of his SEC games were under 76-yards receiving. In those 23 career SEC games, he has three receiving TDs.

For the entire 2012 season, Beckham Jr. scored two receiving TDs...none against a D1 opponent.

Are you picking up on a theme here? It's quite possible the Odell Beckham Jr. just isn't a very good WR. His body is an 'A'. His highlight reel is an 'A'. His statistical output is a 'D'. I would have never guessed it. I was so excited thinking this really was a true sleeper. You have to, have to, have to question the performance.

When you buy into Beckham Jr. for the 2014 NFL Draft, you are really buying a tremendous athlete whom you hope is ready to play WR mentally and effort-wise in the NFL...and the key word is 'hope'.

The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Odell Beckham Jr. Most Compares Within Our System:

It is very complicated to profile Odell Beckham Jr. because he has such an odd pattern of high-end athleticism, but mediocre output and a very low bench press (7 reps...again, making us worry about 'effort' and the dedication to his craft). Julian Edelman make some sense because not only was Edelman a great athlete coming out of college (as a QB), but he hit the pros and struggled some before finding his footing, plus has been very useful in the return game. It may be the same with Beckham. He may need 2-3 seasons to get his bearings straight and really learn his craft, and then thrive.

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Small-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Small-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Small-WR.

All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.

“Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.  High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.

“Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2014 NFL Draft Outlook:

Odell Beckham Jr. seems to be a universal 2nd-round WR in Mock Drafts, and that's where we think he will go as well. His athleticism is too special, too enticing to pass up on at a certain point.

If I were an NFL GM, I am interested in Beckham, but I am highly suspicious. I am not going to do anything radical to add him to my team because of the output questions, and he does have a great physical profile, but it's not so far beyond everyone else that he is a mythical god. He's got a great NFL body, but I'm not exactly sure what else, problem-wise, he is bringing to my table. So for that reason, I am cautiously optimistic.

NFL Outlook:   

Nothing would shock me with Beckham in the NFL. In three years, if he were the best WR in this draft, I would not be so shocked. Conversely, if you told me that he became a flaming bust...I would not be shocked at that news either. Sometimes these things are just super-curious to our computers, but hard to pick a side on. I could go either way looking at the data. The fact that there are so many doubts makes him hard to swallow in the early 2nd-round...especially in the year of the "deepest WR class ever" (supposedly).

2/28/2014