RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
8/31 SUN
(8:27amET)
*Trending player the past 24+ hours...for those about to draft or looking at trades...*
-- Tony Pollard is one of the hotter players in ADP rise right now. The Spears news has lit the fuse.
-- Kenneth Walker sinking a bit with a Zach Charbonnet renaissance/rise happening.
-- Ollie Gordon white hot still.
-- Brandon Aubrey going quicker and quicker off the draft boards. Plan accordingly.
-- Cam Little getting nice heat from the kicker group. He’s a somewhat Aubrey alternative potentially.
-- Matthew Golden and Ricky Pearsall get hotter by the day.
-- I have been buying Tyreek Hill easily all over the place in redraft and Dynasty. Ever since I was in that FantasyPros expert voting on players we thought were gonna be underperformances/FF team killers for 2025...and seeing Tyreek Hill win the voting going away...I’ve been on the prowl buying ‘old, washed up’ (apparently) Tyreek.
If I were you, in all formats, I’d look into undervalued offers for Tyreek...you will be shocked by the deals you can get away with. I could build a HELLUVA FF-team in 2025 just drafting/acquiring players who are 28 and older. FF is still rookie deranged and older age averse as ever.
Step 1: Acquire Tyreek cheap. Don’t acquire Tyreek at all costs...the appeal is people giving up on him.
Step 2: In deep roster situations, sit on Malik Washington as his ‘cuff’ of sorts...who might be a WR3 hope regardless.
*College football is back!*
And I try NOT to watch CFB much at all in-season. I watch all the prior season tape come each January-to-August, for all the offseason/draft scouting purposes...but watch a rare amount of CFB in-season. BUT I made an exception for the Ohio State-Texas game yesterday.
I watched the first half, then took a nap at halftime, then woke up and watched the 4th-quarter. My initial thoughts on what I saw...
-- Arch Manning did not play well, but it doesn’t mean he stinks or is doomed yet. Maybe he is...maybe he isn’t, but I can’t close the door off a debut game at Ohio State in one of the biggest stages of an opening day regular season game there has been in years/decades/ever.
Arch looked nervous/amped and threw a lot of ‘wild pitches’. He started to a click a little late, but overall it wasn’t great.
And NOW my prediction will come true from July: The media and fans will now attempt to destroy Arch. He was put on such a pedestal...and today he’s made everyone look bad for pushing him as the obvious Heisman favorite...so, now the attacks will come -- he made ‘them’ look bad AND I’ve thought all along that there is a ‘Manning fatigue’ just waiting to spill out, and now it will.
He’s got a big hole to dig out of, which he can, but it’s gonna take a while...if he can.
-- Arch would’ve really benefitted from the ‘good ol’ days’ of CFB where teams Texas would play like Texas State, Sam Houston, and UTEP the first three weeks of the season...which allowed young QBs to get their bearings straight a little bit. Instead, Arch gets the defending champs at their place opening week with ESPN Gameday and everyone else in the football world there.
Maybe Arch stinks and will never be good, but man that was quite a backdrop to debut as ‘the man’ in.
-- When do people start to question whether Steve Sarkisian knows anything about coaching, QBs, or anything?
I haven’t studied it deeply, but here’s what I see as his track record...
2009-2013...a .500-ish coach for Univ. of Washington with Jake Locker as his prize, a QB failure.
2014-2015...jumped to USC...nothing great and fired for alcohol issues. Fraud QB Cody Kessler was his QB.
2016...Alabama ‘analyst’.
2017-2018...hired as ATL Falcons O-C when Kyle Shanahan departed the role, and the offense collapsed in his first year. He was fired after two seasons.
2019-2020...became the Alabama O-C, worked with Mac Jones and Tua. Both QBs did not live up to their ‘because they played for Alabama’ draft stock.
2021-2025...Texas head coach...handed the keys to the best program in the country that money can buy...wins games but loses the biggest games. Quinn Ewers is going to become an NFL bust and Arch Manning flopped in his starting debut here.
I’m failing to see that the most well-funded college program has the best coach that money can buy.
Just my 2 cents.
-- Arch Manning was not the only Heisman hopes that got crushed in this game. Jeremiah Smith dropped multiple passes and had a ‘meh’ game, and his new QB doesn’t look that hot to me. Arch will get crushed for his flop...but Jeremiah Smith will be excused for his opening week flop. It’s weird the way players get anointed and protected and which ones get hated or turned on. Smith needs a delivery system to win any awards...and it doesn’t look great for that to happen with OSU this year.
-- Boy, is Colts management down on Anthony Richardson...
They are really trying to manipulate AR into working hard/dedicated to his craft/maturing, so you know that is the real issue...and it’s been so for two years (probably three years)...but it’s been hidden/covered up from us.
Gone in 2026...Ballard, Steichen, and Richardson.
-- Winners #1-2 of the Rookie Card Giveaway have been selected and contacted...and they made their card choice.
Giveaway criteria #3 has been underway this week (info below).
Here’s the pool we’re selecting from for Giveaway #4 (of 5)...we will draw a random name from anyone who has tried out our new Chalk Talk Database offering by the opening kick of the season (Week 1 TNF) -- we will randomly draw one name from the subscriber group there and contact them THU night.
-- (REPRINT) A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/30 SAT
(7:09amET)
-- Week 1 projection baselines have been uploaded the past few days. The final group going in for a baseline is the IDPs. They will insert today.
Weekly projections update daily starting Tuesday for pretty much the rest of the season.
-- An update on my sentiment on JK Dobbins...
Insiders are telling me the JKD is going to be the Denver version of a lead back. Not like a full lead, but in the mix strong with the others.
Chalk Talk is telling us not to dismiss JKD.
My viewing of him in the preseason was that JKD was rotated in like a nobody and he did not seem important to Denver, nor did he seem overly quick/exciting at all...still broken down to me.
I’m not into JKD at all, but I will respect JKD and assume he’ll be in the mix. None of the Denver RBs looked all that good in the preseason. They’ve got a problem there. Eventually, it will be Alvin Kamara as their lead...but for now, I assume/it’s likely a JKD-RJH-Badie unpredictable rotation, which is a Payton hallmark.
-- The hottest players in the DRD or redraft the past few days are...
Ollie Gordon is white hot...maybe the hottest rookie outside the obvious top 5. Starting to push towards a top 12 DRD pick and is likely going WAY earlier than whatever your redraft or DRD platform says/shows.
Isaac TeSlaa is becoming everyone’s favorite ‘it’ WR...and it is causing Jameson Williams to fall in ADP. Now is a great time to trade for Jameson lower than ever this summer.
Emeka Egbuka is still hotter than TeSlaa, once the not on Chris Godwin’s return was rumored to be Week 5+.
One rookie cooling fast...
The Jacory Croskey-Merritt white hot rise the past week+ off the BRob. trade is slowly cooling off a bit.
-- Someone sent this to me yesterday, and I thought it was an interesting read, on the Micah Parsons trade.
My favorite clip from the lengthy piece: Jones believed the Cowboys could be disappointing on defense, even with Parsons in the lineup. Echoing the same logic the Bengals might have been using as they negotiated a deal with Trey Hendrickson, Jones and the Cowboys had very recent evidence that Parsons alone wasn't a guarantee of a great defensive season. In 2024, the Cowboys ranked 29th in EPA per play and points allowed per possession. They allowed opposing teams to score touchdowns on 75% of their trips to the red zone, the fifth-worst rate allowed by any defense in a single season since 2000. Perhaps Jones figured: If the Cowboys could be so bad with Parsons on the field for most of the season, was it really worth $47 million more per year to keep him around?
-- HEADLINE: Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez’s hamstring injury has been “tricky” and the timetable on his return is “tough to pin down.”
This would really hurt a Patriots DST Week 1 (or more) narrative. Gonzalez is the biggest key to this defense.
-- Two CFB notes...
1) I watched the condensed/highlight version of the Nebraska opening game, to watch a little NU QB Dylan Raiola...a talented thrower but he never puts up any numbers. He had an OK game debut for 2025, an NU win, but mild numbers for Raiola. No scores in the 1st-half. Sluggish offense. Raiola plays with little urgency or aggression. A ton of talent but the ‘it’ factor has yet to appear.
2) We’re not streaming the OSU-Texas game, but I will watch it and report out quick thoughts on it this holiday weekend.
If I watch it live, I’ll be in the FFM Private Club Discord chat via the Betting group making comments/seeing what people are thinking about Arch and others. Not sure if I will watch live...when I can easily watch it on demand throughout the day, but there is something about watching it live.
-- Winners #1-2 of the Rookie Card Giveaway have been selected and contacted...and they made their card choice.
Giveaway criteria #3 has been underway this week (info below).
Here’s the pool we’re selecting from for Giveaway #4 (of 5)...we will draw a random name from anyone who has tried out our new Chalk Talk Database offering by the opening kick of the season (Week 1 TNF) -- we will randomly draw one name from the subscriber group there and contact them THU night.
-- (REPRINT) A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/29 FRI
(7:32amET)
-- Big game report release today...the DAL-ATL preseason game. You'll want to read this. Out middayET.
-- TRADE: Packers acquired Micah Parsons from the Cowboys in exchange for two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark, and signed him to a four-year, $188 million extension.
My message to Jerry Jones: https://youtu.be/cusQfJKn8c0?si=GNQQivDWbQ2bTsYx
Finally, someone taking a stand against the ludicrous contracts for edge rushers. It’s rare to see, but it’s finally happening a little in 2025. Kudos to the Bengals for not giving a giant deal to Trey Hendrickson, and bigger Kudos to Jerry Jones for shipping highly overrated/inefficient, pain in the @$$ Micah Parsons outta Dallas.
Would I like Micah Parsons on my team for 2025? Sure, why not? But would I want him on my team if I had to commit to a $188M/$120M guar. deal or anything close to it? Absolutely not.
And Kenny Clark is one of the best run stopping DTs in the game the past 5 or so years...and Dallas has had a tough time stopping the run in the preseason. What Dallas loses in pass rush threat, they may gain in run stopping efficiency. Dallas’s defense may come out ahead just on the player side of things before you get into the picks and cash.
Now, the media (and most ‘fans’) are not gonna see it that way and are gonna cry a bucket of tears and complain about Jerry...but the complaining media will be taking a break from their brilliant analysis/scouting of how great Marvin Harrison, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young are...and how Abdul Carter was secretly the best player in the 2025 NFL Draft. Piss on them...they have no idea what they are talking about.
This was the right move. The Cowboys add a solid, healthy Kenny Clark (was banged up in 2024 but was a Pro Bowler in 2023) and get two #1 picks, which is nice fire power to trade or use, but most importantly they don’t saddle themselves with a horrific, salary cap crushing contract for Parsons.
And if you had questions about Parsons’ NFL worth and ability before today, now consider how good/motivated an overly paid Parsons in Green Bay is gonna be as we go.
I’ll bet the Dallas win total over/under line barely moved by Vegas on the news.
-- HEADLINE: Panthers GM Dan Morgan said Jalen Coker “is going to step into the slot” role this season.
No duh. How was this big news in the world yesterday? Did people think it was gonna be Hunter Renfrow? They cut him already. Of course it was gonna be Coker in the slot. And he’ll be the #2 target on the team but consider we’re talking about Bryce Young as the delivery system AND Young could barely make Thielen work...when Thielen did shine, it was a lot of tunnel screens and that’s not really Coker’s game. I love me some Coker, as a talent, as you may know, but I can only get so excited about him starting here -- now, when they bench Bryce for Dalton, then we can get a little more excited.
Dave Canales seems destined to go down with the ship with Bryce at this point, however. It might cost Canales his job, sadly...but he did it to himself. They could’ve drafted a day three QB the past couple years...they could’ve done something to hedge their bets.
-- HEADLINE: Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said Chris Godwin (ankle) is likely to return in Week 5 or later.
Wait, what? I thought they weren’t putting him on IR/PUP because he had a chance to be back for Weeks 2-3? Now we’re talking maybe halfway into the season? Why wouldn’t they just put him on the PUP for 4 weeks then?
Ok, he’s not ‘undervalued’ or someone to take as a gamble instead of Rashee Rice in a redraft, among guys out games to start the season. We’re back to more excitement for Emeka Egbuka, I guess. Let’s see what they say tomorrow...and the next day...
-- Winners #1-2 of the Rookie Card Giveaway have been selected and contacted...and they made their card choice.
Giveaway criteria #3 has been underway this week (info below).
Here’s the pool we’re selecting from for Giveaway #4 (of 5)...we will draw a random name from anyone who has tried out our new Chalk Talk Database offering by the opening kick of the season (Week 1 TNF) -- we will randomly draw one name from the subscriber group there and contact them THU night.
-- (REPRINT) A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/28 THU
(7:38amET)
-- I’ve been going through and updating the rosters and depth charts with all the changes of the past 24+ hours...plus the projection adjustments from the various trades, claims, suspensions, and IR situations.
We’ll be done with that today and have a new set of draft guide rankings out today (offense and then IDP), then a Dynasty rankings update after that (prob. FRI).
Week 1 projections for all positions will be added/updated for all the moves over the next 24 hours, and then we’ll update that daily leading up to Week 1 kickoff.
-- With the rosters and depth charts and injuries, etc., updated we will run a Faux/Computer Simulation season 3.0/FINAL for the preseason, starting today. That series will go daily with 3 weeks/games at a time posted results/standings for the next 7 days to lead into the season opener on TNF next week. Stretching it out for a week for a little daily nugget, timing it to conclude with the simulated playoffs next THU, before the 2025 season officially launches.
-- Our annual preseason Betting video podcast extravaganza with RC, Bet The Close Chris, and Andrew DFS will be shot tonight and will be available to the Betting subscribers Friday.
-- TRADE: The Vikings have acquired Adam Thielen, a conditional seventh-round pick and a future fifth-round pick from the Panthers in exchange for a fifth-round pick and a future fourth-round pick.
Basically, Thielen + a 7th for the Vikings 4th-round pick.
For CAR: They should do this type of deal, because their team stinks and Thielen would really not matter to 2025 results, nor is he a long-term asset at his age (35+). AND the Panthers have Jalen Coker, so they were fine to make this move for the future. Coker becomes a WR3 +/- now...the #2 target (behind Tet) in a weak passing game. Coker has WR2.5 upside and a solid long-term outlook, because he is a talent.
For MIN: This is the type of deal good teams should do...a good deal structure for the NFL -- the Vikes get the undervalued veteran/’old’ (a.k.a. FF-hated because of age) player that makes a difference now and sells off the ‘meh’ draft pick to do it, and get one later pick back to offset. What MIN takes in the 7th-round could easily beat what they would’ve taken in the 4th-round. Smart for a team with playoff+ aspirations. These are the type deals Dynasty owners should be prepared to do in Weeks 3-4-5 when your off-to-a-slow-start league mates panic and crave to get to the emotionally safe space, never-ending ‘rebuild for the future’.
Thielen is a huge get for MIN. He plugs right in for missing Addison for Weeks 1-2-3, and he’ll likely be the #2 target for JJM ahead of Addison once Addison returns. Thielen will be a slot type WR, a pitch & catch option...while Addison becomes just a random deep ball/outside WR guy...that type of WR is weak, inconsistent for FF results and is big play/TD dependent. Addison is FF-hurt the most here...misses 3 games, a better WR brought into the fold...it kills off his 2025 FF ‘sleeper’ pick value in current redrafts.
-- HEADLINE: Texans GM Nick Caserio told reporters Joe Mixon (ankle) will be re-evaluated after four weeks.
This is not looking good for Mixon. Looks great for those of us ‘bag holding’ Nick Chubb owners, some of us since February 2025.
Houston did not add an RB so far. They kept 4...Chubb, Pierce, Ogunbowale, Marks.
Whatever happens from here, I claim victory on my Chubb call right now. His value today is a win vs. what we all paid for it the past few months. What you do with it from here is up to you. I’m holding, because if he has a nice game/heavy carries Weeks 1-2...his value will jump to trade, or keep sitting on or using.
-- HEADLINE: WR Rashee Rice accepted and will serve a six-game suspension to start the 2025 regular season.
Just looking at this for FF 2025 purposes...6 games is a deep cut but is not the feared 8+ game suspension. So it is six games and then maybe it might take 1-2 games to get back into the swing of things...AND Mahomes may be in midseason form with other WR options when Rashee is trying to force his way back in to the mix.
I ask myself which tainted WR is the better option, if they fell to a point I would consider them? Chris Godwin out 1-2-3 weeks, not put on PUP, but who knows what condition his foot will be in this season OR Rashee Rice out 6 gamed for sure, possibly a sluggish return 1-2 weeks after that, but you get half-a-season of hope...and he is also returning from an ACL? You think Rice was FF-good last year before he was taken out...you should re-look at what numbers Godwin was putting up before his season ending injury.
I see the case for either side of the argument...or just staying away.
-- Rookie Card giveaway #2 was randomly drawn among any current subscriber of the FFM site and/or the Draft Guide...the winner was contacted and they quickly selected the Tyreek Hill certified autographed rookie card.
Rookie Card giveaway #3 eligibility/info is below. Giveaway #4 details will be announced this weekend.
I’m going to the shipping store today to get special boxes and protective material to ship the first two winner’s cards out next week.
-- A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
8/27 WED
(7:09amET)
-- Last night’s video show is available for watch/listen anytime. We covered a lot of ground over 2+ hours.
-- Today is the day teams can claim the cut players...and the majority will not be claimed and are free to sign deals to join practice squads, usually with the team they have been with this summer...but not always.
Next Draft Guide update will be after the claim period is done, practice squads set, probably a trade or three will happen...so likely WED late or THU early.
-- TRADE RUMORS: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that the Vikings and Panthers continue to discuss a trade involving Adam Thielen.
I would’ve thought the Panthers made it clear on them not trading Thielen, but the fact that this is still active means...Carolina may make a deal. I really don’t think they want to, so you know Minnesota must be dying to make a deal for Thielen...and you can see that Thielen and his family want to go back to Minnesota.
The Vikings need a WR for Weeks 1-3, with Jordan Addison out and others hurt...but then I think they aren’t that into Addison as it is, so having a Thielen type ‘professional’ WR is a great thing. If Thielen goes to Minnesota, Addison value gets cut by 20-30%+ for FF 2025. I wouldn’t touch Addison if Minnesota acquired Thielen.
TRADE: Seahawks traded T Michael Jerrell to the Falcons in exchange for a 2027 seventh-round selection.
Smart trade. I liked the developmental upside of Jerrell back in 2024 pre-Draft scouting. I don’t know that it helps ATL now, but they are dealing with some OL injury issues and were in need. This deal got my attention. The new regime must not think a lot of Jerrell to just let him go for the value of a cut-level player.
The Falcons have McGary down, and lost Dallman to CHI in free agency...the Falcons O-Line has been ‘hit’. Not great news for Bijan’s first few games...doesn’t help Penix out of the gates either.
-- A quick draft guide note, just to be clear/sure...
Considering Brandon Aubrey, or any of the top kicker options...it’s increased value on them IF you get more FF-scoring the longer the kick.
There are still, to my surprise, a few leagues in existence where all FG distances made are treated the same (3 pts). In that scoring system, the kickers have no real urgency or value compared to if there is a distance scoring situation.
Make sure you know your kicker scoring detail pre-draft.
-- So, I was part of another FF ‘expert’ vote on FantasyPros. This time we voted on who would be the biggest busts or disappointments for FF 2025.
I think the results are very interesting...and expected, but when you see it up close it’s quite interesting.
We voted for one player at each position (about 40-50 of us). Here were the players, regardless of position, getting the most votes (at their position)...
1) Tyreek Hill = 15 votes (this is a growing value if he falls to the later 3rd)
2) Mark Andrews = 11
3) Jared Goff = 10
4) Kyler Murray = 10
5) Travis Kelce = 10
6) Baker Mayfield = 9
7) Breece Hall = 9
8) Sam LaPorta = 9
9) Patrick Mahomes = 8
10) Terry McLaurin = 6
What sticks out to you about this list?
-- Nine of the 10 are players that have been in the league for three full seasons or more. Only LaPorta isn’t in that bucket.
FF owners and experts are so averse to ‘old news’ (to them) players. The value in redrafts is chasing 3+ year NFL players and keeping yourself restrained from chasing rookies (which the experts and players absolutely adore). 3+ year players are typically undervalued in ADP...rookies way overvalued in ADP.
I voted for, by position...
QB = Justin Fields...he got 5 votes/was 5th most votes at QB.
RB = Breece Hall...and he led all the RB voting with a distance.
WR = Marvin Harrison...I thought I’d be alone here, but he got 4 votes/was 3rd most votes. FF analysts are usually the first to turn on things that need turning on, but the mainstream football analysts will never give up...Marv will be a WR of interest for the mainstream for years. Next up for mainstream = it will be Kyler and the coach’s fault, so they must be fired.
TE = Colston Loveland...he got 5 votes and was 4th most.
Here’s the full article/report including my potshots at Marv and the scouting community.
-- WARNING: If you read this article, you’re gonna get sucked in for redraft/FF. You have been warned...
If Rashee is gone for 6-8+ games, and Kelce is in better shape than the past 1-2 years...who knows...who wants to bet against Mahomes-Kelce?
-- A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
TUE 8/26
(7:59amET)
-- Tuesday Night Video Q&A tonight at 8:30pmET start time, as usual.
Access will post between 8-8:15pmET.
TRADE: Raiders acquired QB Kenny Pickett from the Browns in exchange for a 2026 fifth-round pick.
The entire Browns organization is insane. I’m not saying Pickett was a must keep, but they’re gonna keep Dillon Gabriel because Kevin Stefanski is literally in love with him...and wants him to be his QB, which I hope he gets to be...so that it’s Stefanski’s last QB as an NFL head coach. Also, Shedeur is being kept even though the staff doesn’t want him...so, Shedeur mayhem will hang over their heads all year and every time Joe Flacco throws an incomplete pass, the call for Shedeur will be screamed from all corners of the globe.
This is actually bullish for Flacco to play/start longer because the guys under him are nowhere near ready. BUT that likely won’t stop Stefanski from foisting Gabriel onto the world.
TRADE: Vikings traded CB Mekhi Blackmon to the Colts for a 2026 sixth-round selection.
Jeff Okudah is a starter for MIN, so I guess Blackmon/CB depth was unnecessary? The Vikings look thin at CB, so they must be giving up on Blackmon.
-- Quick note on the FFM App...
We were updating some links and site address stuff behind the scenes and the FFM App had its linkage to the site disconnected. So, you won’t be able to go to the site from the App on your mobile until we fix it. But you can access FFM every way possible on your mobile otherwise...Google search on phone or any other search platform on your phone. Everything on the web, from a computer, is normal. The site is fine...it’s just the App connection to our site got disconnected. Like a cable line getting cut in the neighborhood by accident.
It should be repaired in the next 24-48 hours. FYI
Notifications are all fine on Mobile...just the connection from the App to go to FFM with a touch is disconnected for a moment.
*NEW: It's the FFM (full name).NET that got messed up (and will be fixed soon). The .com's are all fine. If you're saved link to FFM is the .NET version, update to ffmetrics.com or full name of FFM.com. When we first started construction of the new site it was being built on .NET, so some O.G.'s have that as their saved link from the early days. Sorry for the hassle but we did some updates behind-the-scenes, and you know what happens sometimes when an update runs on your phone or on an App. Annoying, I know. But needed to be done.
*News headlines*
-- Texans placed RB Joe Mixon (ankle) on the reserve/non-football injury list: Welcome to the Nick Chubb show...the prophecy has been fulfilled! For now. I’m ready for 9,000 articles/commentaries daily from FF analysts who have zero idea when they blurt out how -- they know, from some camp reports (i.e. one person tweeted it), that Chubb is slow/lost his powers. Please keep saying this mainstream!!
-- Trevon Diggs was a full participant in Monday’s practice: Huge news for Dallas’s season.
-- Raiders are signing Amari Cooper to a one-year contract: Likely a precursor to a Jakobi Meyers trade? If he goes to New England, it’s a mild torpedo shot to Kyle Williams. Jakobi to reunite with Josh McDaniel is a Jakobi FF 2025 killer...and Kyle 2025 FF killer.
-- Cowboys placed RB Phil Mafah (shoulder) on injured reserve: A slick way for Dallas to put Mafah on ice for a bit without chewing up a roster spot. I’m totally fine with it for Dynasty. For redraft, little need to hold...unless you're in a super-deep league.
-- Bengals have agreed to a one-year contract with Trey Hendrickson: The way he’s treated vs. Myles Garrett is sickening.
-- Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (leg) will not play in Week 1 against the Colts: Ollie Gordon is a heartbeat away...
-- PK Jason Sanders (hip) won’t be available for the start of the season: Rookie Ben Sauls or more likely Matthew Wright winds up here, as a guess.
*Some interesting names released (53-man rosters must lock this afternoon):
RB Blake Watson, DEN...Denver will definitely put him on the practice squad.
RB Audric Estime, DEN...I think Denver will want to put him on the practice squad, but some team will intervene...a team that scouted him/liked him pre-Draft 2024.
OT Dan Skipper, DET...surprising, he’ll definitely get grabbed by some team.
K Ben Sauls, PIT...this rookie will be claimed by some team, my bet is the 49ers to dump Jake Moody. Possibly NYG or MIA jumps in.
QB Hendon Hooker, DET...finally.
QB Kyle McCord, PHI...likely goes to the practice squad.
RB Montrell Johnson Jr., PHI...will very likely go to the Philly practice squad, for sure.
-- The Rookie Card giveaway card #1 has been selected...the graded 10, certified autograph Jordan Love rookie has been claimed by the winner.
We’re ready for giveaway #2...which is for any current FFM subscriber to the monthly or annual access and/or Draft Guide subscription. Each subscription is a ‘ticket’ to the drawing. We will randomly choose the winner and contact them today.
The eligibility for giveaway #3 is below (re-post from yesterday).
-- A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add/FINAL: Washington
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Kyle Shanahan/SF, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL, Sean Payton/DEN
Dan Quinn/WSH, Ben Johnson/CHI, Dave Canales/CAR, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Macdonald/SEA, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Todd Bowles/TB, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL, Brian Callahan/TEN
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
MON 8/25
(7:19amET)
-- Next game scouting report from me will be LAR-CLE, which ended up quite an interesting affair for scouting...even beyond the Shedeur faceplant.
After CLE-LAR posts, I will write up the Broncos-Saints Week 3 game...and I hope to have that out 2nd-half of the day(ET)...worst case first thing TUE, but it’s important so I’m rushing it. And this DEN-NO game report, shockingly (shocked me, and I’m gonna shock you), may be the MUST READ report of all the Week 3 games.
All the Week 3 games will report out all this week/weekend as we head towards OPENING WEEK! Can you believe it?
Our TEST Week 1 projections post is out...just the early DST projections are there, with the framework for all the other positions. Today, we plan to add Week 1 QB and PK projections.
-- Quick note on the FFM App...
We were updating some links and site address stuff behind the scenes and the FFM App had its linkage to the site disconnected. So, you won’t be able to go to the site from the App on your mobile until we fix it. But you can access FFM every way possible on your mobile otherwise...Google search on phone or any other search platform on your phone. Everything on the web, from a computer, is normal. The site is fine...it’s just the App connection to our site got disconnected. Like a cable line getting cut in the neighborhood by accident.
It should be repaired in the next 24-48 hours. FYI
Notifications are all fine on Mobile...just the connection from the App to go to FFM with a touch is disconnected for a moment.
-- TRADE: Vikings traded QB Sam Howell to the Eagles for a 2026 fifth-round pick and 2027 seventh-round pick.
Everyone wants Sam Howell, and then they don’t a year later.
I would NEVER take a developmental QB that Kevin O’Connell didn’t want. However, the Eagles were desperate with Tanner McKee getting hurt. And the last time Howell ‘crushed’ in the NFL was some lucky games with Washington, versus...Philly...31 points scored by Washington in each game vs. Philly in 2023, Howell averaging 2.5 TD passes and 323.0 yards per game. So, Howell is in their heads from 2-years ago.
Minnesota signed Carson Wentz in Howell’s place. This doesn’t make me feel better about the insurance plan if JJM goes down.
Nothing to see here, from an FF perspective...except for the downfall of Howell.
-- HEADLINE: Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley believes “the Jaguars will look to unload” either Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby.
Maybe. I imagine if they get an offer they like, but Etienne was a giant waste of a 1st-round pick and a waste of cash by the brilliant Urban Meyer administration. It’s gonna be hard to unload Etienne and his money due, for anything great. These morons (prior JA administration) actually gave Etienne a 5th-year option and he makes a guaranteed $6M+ this season.
Jacksonville needs these, or some, RBs to try to make a run at the AFC South...unless they are about to make the major mistake of keeping rookie LeQuint Allen because ‘he can block’...so, they are gonna dump ‘not the new regime guys’ in Etienne or Bigsby.
This is a minor test for the boy wonder GM James Gladstone. Jacksonville has some hope of winning the division, but it will be tough if they are short at RB going with two rookies off-the-bat and a still young Bigsby. UNLESS the Jags are about to make a move for like Breece Hall or something...then I get it.
New regimes do not like the prior regime’s players. So, anything is possible here. Etienne is the very likely one to get dumped, to drop some of his payroll on the receiving team.
Teams that might be looking for RBs to start the 2025 season...
The Steelers.
The Ravens, if one veteran comes cheap as a #3.
Houston...someone to run with Chubb.
LAC...depending on the real Najee news.
Denver...a total mess of a run game right now, but it’s an O-Line issue.
Miami...if the injury news is worse than let on for Achane/Wright.
RBs who might be/will be available...
Etienne.
Breece Hall.
Zamir White.
Jaleel McLaughlin/Audric Estime.
-- Cuts made that caught my eye from Sunday...
*Reminder, the 53-man rosters must be locked in Tuesday afternoon...so, lots of trades coming the next 24+ hours. And lots of cuts. These cuts from Sunday are the easy cuts for teams, they still a ways to go.
QB Tyler Huntley, CLE...the joy within the mainstream for them to announce that Huntley got cut, so they think/assume it means Shedeur achieved something by making the team. Why the mainstream is sticking by Shedeur after this entire last 6 months fiasco from him is inexplicable...but I love it! The mainstream is still leading the masses astray, as is their deal for the past 10+ years I’ve been in this profession.
TE Zack Kuntz, NYJ...the Combine phenom never made it. Look to see if PIT claims him with his prior relationship with Aaron Rodgers, or if Rodgers isn’t interested.
SAF Lewis Cine, PHI...a high draft pick of the Vikings a few years ago, I think the debut draft for the current regime...and it turned out to be a disaster on their early picks...and all their picks that year.
DT K.J. Henry, CLE...I think there’s some talent for a 53-man roster here. I think I know why he got bounced, and it’s not all his fault. He’ll get claimed.
-- A multipurpose announcement on Rookie Card giveaway #3...
Giveaway #3 will go to a current subscriber (via random draw) from our BETTING subscription group as of this Labor Day weekend.
The reason we’re a week away from this drawing is to give everyone time to sign up to get ready for the new season of Betting (sub runs to the Super Bowl, then we retool for a March new season subscription). All the props and game picks...the heavy betting season, etc., is about to happen. It was a pretty profitable season in 2024.
ALSO, the Betting subscription comes with access to our exclusive FFM Discord. We designed it for a place where folks can chat and comment and ask questions of the group about Fantasy or Betting or whatever. Our own private space. You don’t have to be a bettor to enjoy this ‘private club’.
We’ve not updated the Discord rolls from last season of the Betting subscriptions, so anyone planning to re-sign up for the new season -- you have all this week to do so. We’ll be updating/refreshing the Discord rolls Labor Day weekend to set our private club up for the new season.
*Our Betting Subscription (including private Discord chat access) offering/sign-up link: https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
-- (same intro daily) Like our QB and Team hierarchy we just went through, I thought it would be interesting to go through the head coaches and rank them.
I am taking this from the perspective of: Just the head coach, not his staff...and if I were a GM and I was trying to poach a head coach away from a pool of all the NFL teams -- who would I choose to steal?
We’ll add/rank one a day, going in alphabetical order for 30 days.
Today’s add: Tennessee
2025 RC Head Coach Hierarchy:
Kevin O’Connell/MIN, Dan Campbell/DET, Sean McVay/LAR, Kyle Shanahan/SF, Sean Payton/DEN, Andy Reid/KC, Jim Harbaugh/LAC, John Harbaugh/BAL
Ben Johnson/CHI, Sean McDermott/BUF, Mike Macdonald/SEA, Dave Canales/CAR, DeMeco Ryans/HOU, Pete Carroll/LV, Mike Vrabel/NE, Matt LaFleur/GB, Mike Tomlin/PIT
Mike McDaniel/MIA, Nick Sirianni/PHI, Kevin Stefanski/CLE, Kellen Moore/NO, Liam Coen/JAX, Zac Taylor/CIN, Aaron Glenn/NYJ, Todd Bowles/TB, Brian Schottenheimer/DAL, Brian Daboll/NYG, Shane Steichen/IND, Jonathan Gannon/ARI, Raheem Morris/ATL, Brian Callahan/TEN
=====================
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to sign up for our Draft Guide package of reports: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
*Our new 2025 project launch, ‘Chalk Talk Database’: https://ffmetrics.com/5776-new-ffm-offering-subscription-chalk-talk-database
