2021 Fantasy Three Things/Five Players from Sunday’s Games: Week 6
Hard to tell how FFM-land is doing this week. Typically, there is an obvious trend of the week…good or bad. This week, it’s a bunch of scattered marbles rolling all over the place. Some hurt by the mass injuries of the week, others benefitting from it…others overcoming it…and too many still facing the high scorers of the league for the week, so it didn’t matter.
Many have Josh Allen or Dawson Knox going for them tonight, a few facing one or the other and/or Derrick Henry, and just hoping Henry doesn’t go nuts…while some with him hopes he does. It looks like a 55%-60% win-rate for the week for FFMers, but a lot going on with MNF to be sure…could go under 50%, could pop up above 60%. Some MNF games are low impact for the FFM nation…this week’s MNF seems to be the opposite – a lot of ‘things’ needing to happen (down or up) to secure things. Good luck with whatever you need to have happen.
Most FFM centric teams will be leaving Week 6 with a (4-2) record…that’s the ‘mode’ of our tracking…with an equal distribution of (5-1) or (3-3) surrounding that on the graph as next most likely. All those records are good places to be. It could be worse; you could be less than .500.
The less than .500 teams in our tracking seem to have a common theme, however – they’re the top 1-2-3-4 scorer (points for) season to date in the league…while simultaneously the top 1-2-3 in points allowed/bad schedule. It’s infuriating if that’s the case -- you’re doing your job and the schedule keeps punching you in the gut. There’s nothing you can do about it – all you can do is know you are doing your job…scoring points at a high rate, and that’s probably with more points left on the bench Weeks 1-2-3 trying to figure out your best lineup should have had Cordarrelle Patterson or whomever that player is that haunted you early on. YOU ARE DOING YOUR JOB if you are top 25% of your league’s scoring. Mass changes are not what’s needed to fix anything…it’s a schedule thing. All you can do is hope the schedule is turning in your favor.
Whether you are (4-2) or (2-4) or any other record…the job this week still remains: Stay patient (curse the schedule later). Buy low. Sell high. Be smart on waivers.
4-5-6 win teams…the injury bug is coming for you, or it came this week. It’s no time for rest. That doesn’t mean making a thousand moves or any moves, just look to see what’s the smartest moves for your squad…and try and take advantage of the panicked in their bye week hell’s.
1-2-3 win teams…injuries are going to open opportunities in the form of a key waiver pickup, or your upcoming opponents are hit with it and you get a cheap win. You’re likely 0-1 games out of the playoffs with like 8 weeks to go until the FF postseason. Even 2 games out with 8 weeks to go is next weeks 1 game out with like 7 weeks to go. New players are coming, emerging…you can get on a hot streak ahead even though it feels like you are doomed. Chase the hot streak. Keep punching.
Do not (mentally) quit the game right now…because it is a game. It is to be played. Moves and countermoves. Bad dice rolls, perfectly timed dice rolls. Punches and counterpunches. We’re barely approaching midgame of the overall game. If you think you’re done…you’ll act like your done…and you’ll make loser moves to ensure you’re done. Take advantage of those 1-2 win people, or 2-game losing streak people…don’t be the one they take advantage of.
Once again, RBs are going down at a high rate…most people wasted a 1st-round redraft pick on a running back. Can we all (me, specifically) really remember each August redraft time that there are new RB solutions most every week – many of us are winning with Khalil Herbert or Alex Collins for the week. Chuba Hubbard is somehow important. Who thought any of these names would ever matter?
Who is chuckling at me or you taking Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen ‘too early’ now? For 4+ out of the last five years, I’ve been building around the elite QB (or trying)…and when they hit they can carry your bizarre backfield through the woes of the season and bye week stretches. But next year, when we draft them highly again, they’ll laugh at us again. I hope so, because then they’ll all still be a value to acquire.
If you think ‘your RBs are killing you’ – they are…and killing everyone else who doesn’t have Derrick Henry. The good news is – there are temp solutions on waivers, a fresh batch every week. You see owning Hubbard and Collins, etc., as ‘problems’, but right now they are RB1 hopefuls. You’ve got them…and it’s a good thing, for now. You’re never going to solve the RB issue with the perfectly acquired backfield, so just go with the next best plan – smart waiver claims. We should not end a week without the last roster spot being for Joshua Kelley or Marlon Mack or Jerick McKinnon or Darrynton Evans or WHATEVER RB is just a COVID case or ACL injury to the main starter away. Having a 5th or 6th flyer WR on the depth chart like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Bryan Edwards or Jarvis Landry, etc., are nice and cute but there are nice/useful WRs everywhere on waivers each week. #2-3 RBs on NFL depth charts are becoming the hot waiver wire Devontae Booker pickup of any given week off the fluke injury.
Two weeks ago, people owned Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt or both, and thought they had their RB situation locked. And then two weeks later… Fantasy Football changes fast.
Handcuff your obvious stud RB. Gamble on other handcuffs if your RB depth is waning. Keep looking at DST matchups to exploit those DST points others miss by sticking with the same names every week. Keep punching and counterpunching – it is not over yet, whether you’re in 1st-place or 2-games out of the playoffs or aren’t sure (today) that you have a live 2nd starting RB for Week 7.
It’s not easy, it’s often not pretty, it’s sometimes beautiful…but it’s a weekly battle of wits and persistence and curveballs.
This is a Fantasy Football season all in five minutes of video: https://youtu.be/wM-lOVgoUqI
We’re still in the early part of the fight. Round 7 starts now…ding-ding.
TB-PHI
-- Antonio Brown (9-93-1/13) is becoming the #1 WR for Tampa Bay…as we theorized in the preseason…that he was an excellent redraft value for his ADP. It’s become reality...
Per game in 2021:
5.8 rec. (8.5 targets), 83.6 yards, 0.80 TDs = AB
5.7 rec. (7.7 targets), 68.2 yards, 0.33 TDs = Godwin
5.2 rec. (5.2 targets), 70.0 yards, 0.80 TDs = Mk Evans
-- Kenneth Gainwell (0-0-0, 1-1-0/2) is all talk (from the coaches) and no action. He’s barely touched the ball the past two weeks. If he’s ‘their guy’ or ‘the future’…there is 0.1% sign of it happening the last two weeks.
-- It’s still early, but DeVonta Smith (2-31-0/4) isn’t showing me much. He’s not bad, he’s just ‘meh’. He is absolutely Jalen Hurts’s close friend and #1 WR, but their output together is boring. He looks like a WR3 over time with WR1 volume weeks here and there.
MIA-JAX
-- Well, we now know there’s a for-sure Tua-Jaylen Waddle (10-70-2/13) connection. It makes sense…Tua does all those baby throws, and he just slices and dices with Waddle.
2.5 catches (5.0 targets), 32.0 yards, 0.0 TDs = Waddle without Tua (2 games)
9.3 catches (11.3 targets), 58.7 yards, 0.67 TDs = Waddle with Tua (3 games)
Notice the huge catch counts…and the low yards. Baby throws. You’ll take it for FF/PPR.
-- Jamal Agnew (5-78-0/6) since D. J. Chark went down (the last 2 weeks)…
5.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
He’s entering the WR3/Flex discussion.
-- I have no idea how to project Myles Gaskin (5-9-0, 2-5-0/6) week-to-week. First off, he’s awful. Secondly, he somehow is their long-time starter. Thirdly, the offense sucks with a terrible O-Line…so his output is all over the place. Fourth, it seems like they might want to go to Salvon Ahmed (7-22-0, 1-15-0/2) ahead…maybe. He was the guy on the final drive to try to tie/win it.
LAC-BAL
-- Mike Williams (2-27-0/5) wasn’t right from the jump. Midgame, he caught a pass over the middle (falling a yard short of a TD) and laid on the ground for a while until he final got helped up and walked slowly off the field. He tried to give it a go, but once the game got out of hand he was out for preservation. We’ll see his status this upcoming week, but he’s not a sure thing for Week 7.
-- Could be just for the week…could be a shift in momentum that will continue into next week…but Devonta Freeman (9-53-1, 0-0-0/2) seemed like he kinda seized the heart of John Harbaugh here. It was a true trio sharing this week and Ty’Son was set inactive, but Freeman looked like a real RB in the trio of ancients. Something to watch for RB desperation ahead.
-- Justin Jackson (1-7-0/1) was active, but he had zero carries while Joshua Kelley (4-7-0) took 4 totes. Kelley may have pushed his way to the #2 spot. Doesn’t matter…unless Ekeler gets hurt, then it really matters.
MIN-CAR
-- Dalvin Cook (29-140-1, 2-3-0/2) back…and thus Kirk Cousins (33-48 for 373 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is back to elite passing numbers, after a two-week vacation. Cousins as your #2/emergency QB is a smart move…in case you or someone else gave up on him after his past two weeks.
-- The Sam Darnold (17-41 for 207 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) tumble is upon us, and he’ll take D.J. Moore (5-73-0/13) down with him. The hot start by Darnold and DJM was just a blip. Darnold is also taking the team down…losers of three in a row. Sad. Carolina will NOT admit the mistake and make a change for a while…probably not this year, but a few more losses…maybe. They moved quickly off Teddy Bridgewater, so who knows how long they’ll be patient.
-- Part of the Darnold issue here was the Minnesota-DST. Yes, Carolina scored 28 points…but there was a blocked punt TD in there, and a lucky/BS TD drive to tie it late (aided by Patrick Peterson getting hurt on the final drive). Otherwise, they held Carolina to 306 yards total, 2-of-12 on 3rd-downs, got 4 sacks with 3 turnovers.
The Vikes-DST is legit, but a bye Week 7 and then DAL-BAL-LAC-GB Weeks 8-11. No reason to hold.
GB-CHI
-- I’m starting to get a little unnerved watching Aaron Rodgers (17-23 for 195 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) this year…the fade is upon us, potentially. He doesn’t have that assassin feel anymore. Not that Rodgers is bad, but he’s not THAT GUY anymore…for now. In this era of QBs going off for numbers, Rodgers is consistently throwing for under 260-270 yards and only seems comfortable throwing to Davante Adams (4-89-0/5) – and the Davante connection has been a little lesser this year too.
-- Another week, another Darnell Mooney (5-45-1/8) is Justin Fields’s BFF WR game. I think it’s no longer speculation by me, it’s a fact/reality. Allen Robinson (4-53-0/7) has become a WR3-4. ARob has 1 TD this season, with highs of 4 catches and 63 yards in any game this season.
-- Another week, another unimpressive Justin Fields (16-27 for 174 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 6-43-0) passing effort. He looks pretty good with extra time or on the move under no duress, but when there is pressure, or he is making a quick timing throw from the pocket – it’s not good.
I am not kidding when I say I’m starting to wonder if Davis Mills is going to be a better QB for the NFL than Fields.
CIN-DET
-- The Lions scored 11 garbage points late, but otherwise this was a dominant performance by the Bengals defense. The Bengals are becoming a top 6-10 type of NFL defense…and you’d expect that type of defense to crush an offense like Detroit’s, and they did.
Bad matchup at BAL next week, but at NYJ Week 8 is sweet…which is the last time you can use them with confidence until maybe Week 11 at LV, maybe.
-- Samaje Perine (DNP) was out with COVID and then Joe Mixon (18-94-0, 5-59-1/6) got banged up for a bit…then Chris Evans (4-18-0, 3-49-1/3) was needed…and, man, does he look good. Evans is moving towards being the proper handcuff for Mixon…but likely a Perine-Evans split right now, if needed, but in a few weeks, it could be Evans as a lead #2 if needed.
-- Amon-Ra St. Brown (5-26-0/7) was big talk of the week for FF analysts, because he had a spike in targets the past two weeks…which is true, but that overlooked the likely lack of yards and TDs that would go with that, for his style. He’s a worse Jakobi Meyers…St. Brown is handy for PPR emergency, but not filled with a ton of upside with this offense.
HOU-IND
-- Don’t overreact to the low Indy FF numbers from the passing game. The Colts were set up so well on offense in this game (from the constant HOU turnovers) and then Indy had a few long plays to score fast (thus they were beaten in time of possession badly, despite winning by 28). Throw this game away for any Indy passing game trends.
-- Davis Mills (29-43 for 243 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) didn’t lead any TD drives and had a couple turnovers, but from what I saw he didn’t play that bad a game. Just everything that could wrong went wrong for Houston.
-- Last week, David Johnson (2-7-0, 1-14-0/2) was involved heavily in the passing game…out of the backfield and lined up as a flanker, etc. This game, when behind quickly and needing to push offense…the Texans never really changed off running Mark Ingram (18-73-0, 2-8-0/2) and plodding around with no real offense. The David Johnson sleeper watch is off…our only hope is he gets traded, but I doubt any teams in the NFL are paying attention.
LAR-NYG
-- I’ll have a lot more to say in my recap, but all pregame on the Video Q&A we were getting reports on Kadarius Toney (3-36-0/3) having an issue with his ankle in warmups…and we were cautioning not to start him if you had reasonable options.
On the 1st-series, Toney was targeted 3 times in the first 6 plays and looked great but on the third play he made a cut and aggravated his ankle…and was done for the day. I bet he’s going on IR…his season may be over.
Like I said last week, the time to chase Toney was not last week…let his value fallback a little. It’s about to fallback this week. We’ll see how bad the injury is this week.
-- I give Daniel Jones (29-51 for 242 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs) a pass for this bad game. I’m still not a big fan, but he’d earned my respect with his play earlier this year – but his respect/ability is tied to Saquon. When Saquon is there then he’s 2x a better QB. When Kadarius is there, he’s 2x better still. He had no Saquon. Lost Toney quick. Had already lost Golladay. You can’t be too hard on him, but get ready…he’s likely to be missing all those key weapons for several weeks ahead. You want the DSTs facing NYG when Saquon and Toney/Golladay are out.
-- Hope you bought low/reasonable last week on Cooper Kupp (9-130-2/12)…because that window is now closed for 2021. Kupp is getting every other pass, and everyone should know it…and yet the defenses can’t stop it. He’s more Davante Adams than Davante Adams is right now – unstoppable, despite everyone knowing it’s coming.
KC-WSH
-- Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, it was all Darrel Williams (21-62-2, 3-27-0/4)…and once again, Williams was much more effective than CEH…when CEH is gone (like late last season). We may be seeing the end of the CEH as the full starter era if this keeps up…more a 50/50 split or hot hand ahead.
I thought Jerick McKinnon (3-10-0, 1-5-0/4) might get more run here to see what he could do, and he looked good…but was barely used. Assume that ahead. It’s the Darrel Williams show until CEH comes back.
-- Antonio Gibson (10-44-0, 2-0-0/3) had his shin issue flare up…so we’re probably inching closer to his time on the IR. J.D. McKissic (8-45-0, 8-65-0/10) will likely split with Jaret Patterson (1-5-0, 1-0-0/1) if/when Gibson goes down…with McKissic the one to own for FF purposes.
-- Like Sam Darnold, the more Taylor Heinicke (24-39 for 182 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is seen in his new environment, the faster he’s getting figured out…and the receivers are going down the with QB-ship for FF. Terry McLaurin (4-28-0/8) is in trouble/fading fast from WR1 to WR2, sadly.
ARI-CLE
-- Kareem Hunt (14-66-0, 3-12-0/3) carted off in this game…crying…so, it may be a season-ender. D’Ernest Johnson (1-2-0, 1-7-0/1) would take over for THU night game Week 7…if Nick Chubb isn’t back. Note: Demetric Felton (2-14-0/2) is a wide receiver.
*Monday afternoon news: Kareem Hunt to miss 4-6 weeks, possibly more. Chubb less than 50/50 for Week 7 TNF…so D’Ernest likely in-line for work, possibly with a forced Felton.
-- Helluva game for Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-101-2/5) – he had his breakout game here. 4.5 rec., 85.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the last two weeks. This isn’t just a ‘he was there’ game…this was a breakout game. The new Baker BFF game, I think…but as long as OBJ (5-79-0/8) is there, DPJ can not be assured of anything. But I think I saw the official changing of the guard here…but Jarvis Landry could/will mess this up too. DPJ as the new #1 WR is still like a WR2.5-3.0 here…if it’s even true because of the crowd around him (and Baker not 100%)
-- Chase Edmonds (4-46-0, 3-4-0/4) is now about dead for serious FF use. He’s an RB3/flex in PPR at best. Rondale Moore (3-10-0, 3-16-0/4) is more a part of the running game, almost. Arizona is never down, so they’re never playing hurry-up with Edmonds in the dump passing game.
LV-DEN
-- I was whining the whole live view game about how pathetic Teddy-to-Courtland Sutton (8-94-1/14) was looking…Sutton open deep a bunch and Teddy either underthrowing or overthrowing. It looked like it was going to be an FF-dud…and then the 4th-quarter happened, and we’re all good.
Sutton is just the embodiment of a real #1 WR, he moves and works like a #1 WR…but one with a mediocre/crappy QB. It FF-works as much as it leaves you lacking – it worked this week, and last week.
Bad matchups ahead…Week 7 with Denzel Ward, Week 9 with Trevon Diggs, and Week 10 with Darius Slay. Then a Week 11 BYE.
-- New coach, new whatever…Darren Waller (5-59-0/5) still a TE2 since Week 2. 4.6 rec. (6.8 targets), 55.6 yards, 0.20 TDs per game since Week 2. Week 1 was the blip that has us all swayed.
He’s not a buy low…he’s not a sell off. He’s a hold. A should-be TE1 caught in a death roll of TE2 output numbers right now. Why buy low when five of the 6 games this year has been a letdown? The trend is LETDOWN.
-- No signs of Javonte Williams (11-53-0, 3-15-0/3) pulling away from Melvin Gordon (10-50-0, 3-23-0/3) spotted in this game. Still a split…still the Broncos losing. Changes have to be coming, but that’s just speculative.
DAL-NE
-- And just like that…Brandon Bolden (1-0-0, 1-3-0/1) goes from the James White fill-in to a nobody, and nothing-like-a-satellite-back Rhamondre Stevenson (5-23-1, 3-39-0/3) started taking some of that work. It makes sense, but it happened without warning. What does Belichick do next week? Why do I keep trying to guess it?
-- Amari Cooper (5-55-0/8) has died in this offense…died from his former self. Since Week 2, Amari is averaging 3.4 rec. (5.2 targets), 46.2 yards, 0.40 TDs per game – that’s not #1 WR targeting or output. I wouldn’t dump him for pennies on the dollar, but I wouldn’t call him a ‘buy low’ either. It is what it is, like Darren Waller, you just have to hope for a turn soon. Why buy low when five of the 6 games this year has been a letdown? The trend is LETDOWN.
-- Three weeks in a row for Hunter Henry (2-25-1/2) with a TD. It isn’t pretty, but it’s working…for TD…just 3.0 targets per game in those three weeks. At the same time, Jonnu Smith (1-9-0/2) is just about dead in NE/for FF.
SEA-PIT
-- In a VERY favorable matchup, all Big Ben could give (29-40 for 229 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) was 229 yards and a TD in 40 passing attempts. It’s so bad, that when the Steelers are in a 4th & short, ‘go for it’ question mark…Mike Tomlin is sending the punting unit before Ben starts pleading his case to the sidelines. It is over. Not a loser…just not a winner/playoff team anymore. This team will finish under .500 and send Ben on his way this offseason.
-- Ben’s fade is good for Diontae Johnson (9-71-0/13, 1-25-0) and dump pass Najee (24-81-0, 6-46-1/7), but took down Chase Claypool (2-17-0/7) because all Ben was doing was flinging off-target, harmless jump ball prayers to Claypool who couldn’t come down with them. Claypool was excellent last week…nothing this week. He’s a WR3 from here on in for the Ben era…we can’t get captivated by one hot game, because Ben is never going to be Ben again…I got caught in the trap of Claypool looking majestic Week 5.
-- Sorry to D.K. Metcalf (6-58-0/7) and Tyler Lockett (2-35-0/7) owners…you’re collateral damage from the Russell Wilson injury. DKM goes to WR2…Lockett to WR3-4.
===== FIVE PLAYERS… =====
*** FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO TRUST***
*Looking at players owned less than 50% on average in leagues across the whole FF-landscape. Your league, obviously, may be different/deeper.
**Adding a school grade to show my interest level (A-F)…and I don’t mean that a D-F grade is ‘bad’/just showing how pressing/important to me, your situation may differ due to injury, etc..
***FAAB % mentioned at any time below is based on a 17-20 man roster league. And it’s hard to predict the right bid % because every league, situation, and lineup needs are so different. So, doing the best I can to ‘project’ (i.e. ‘guess’) what they will be based on early chatter.
1) RB D’Ernest Johnson, CLE (Grade C+) *Again, note…not a grade on talent…just how important/urgent/great the waiver move is in context.
The urgency/excitement of this grab is all based upon how bad the Nick Chubb injury is – if Chubb is back for Week 7…then this is a ‘D’ move, or worse. And then if Baker is hurt and going to miss anytime…then even worse for everybody.
What I can tell you is: He has talent…he’s like an Alvin Kamara clone. He would do fine if pushed into a lead role, but it likely lasts only a week…if that. He will NOT split with Chubb, on purpose/by design when Chubb is back. This only works if Chubb is out.
2) RB J.D. McKissic, WSH (Grade C+)
We’re likely to have the ‘shin watch’ for Antonio Gibson every week…and they’ll gradually lower his touches to get him through it…until they declare the season over, and then they’ll sit him down and go McKissic-Patterson. McKissic is what you want for FF if the Gibson news starts to turn worse.
3) WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Grade C-)
I think he’s a top talent, and on the verge of some big games, BUT he’s only playing 50% or so of the snaps and is not the top look on a team with many weapons. He’s someone to have as a bench WR investment to see if it clicks over into something hot.
4) WR Tim Patrick, DEN (Grade: D+)
He’s been giving WR2-3 work all season. A steady, productive hand. WR2 ceiling who will flutter between WR2-3.5 most weeks.
5) WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Grade D+)
Avery talented WR who is his (new) QB’s #1 WR…you love that, but it’s one of/the worst passing game in the NFL he’s working on…so, the output is erratic and trends lower rather than higher most weeks.
6) WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Grade D)
Had his breakout week in Week 6. The problem is two-fold…
a) If Baker is out, then this is a problem…breakout paused.
b) How can he sustain a breakout with OBJ/Landry so needy?
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***FIVE WAIVER PLAYERS TO DISTRUST***
1) WR K.J. Osborn, MIN
I’m a fan, but I know he’s lowly in the pecking order. Really nice week, but if it wasn’t for the OT allowing his long TD, it would have been a WR3-4 week. Don’t trust the blip.
2) WR Robby Anderson, CAR
Caught a TD pass but dropped 2-3-4 other passes…caught 3 passes on 11 targets this week. He’s fading away and Sam Darnold makes it worse.
3) WR T.Y. Hilton, IND
There’s not enough passing game in Indy to make two WRs work for FF, and TYH is not going to leap Michael Pittman. And TYH is getting nearer to the end of the road as a talent…he’s not a #1 WR, hasn’t been for years.
4) RB Le’Veon Bell, BAL
Had a TD Week 6…no, thanks. The 3rd RB in a terrible RB trio.
5) WR Rashod Bateman, BAL
It’s going to take him time to get integrated, and then he can’t be any better than a #3 option among the receivers in 2021. But analysts love him because they love rookies and they loved him among the rookies. If you’re a shoulder shrug at Rondale Moore…how could you be excited about this?
Good name to get to trade but is not hot WR relief ahead…with the waiver wire filled with useful WRs.
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***FIVE BUY LOW PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Buy at any price’…it’s Buy LOW. Try to find a deal. If none to be had, walk away. It’s also NOT…go immediately ask the owner ‘What do you want for ____’, don’t telegraph your desires.*
1) WR Davante Adams, GB (trying to buy as a solid WR1, not #1 of the WR1s)
Just two TDs this season.
Weaker Week 6, and a weaker Week 4…two of the last three weeks have been so-so.
If the current owner is (2-4) or worse and has glaring needs, you might be able to put an RB they need (or whatever need item) + a hot name WR like Deebo or Sutton and try to snatch Adams away from an RB or QB desperate owner whose season is getting away. You try to acquire him to go for the jugular (or die trying) this season.
…with the risk Aaron Rodgers is starting to fade off a bit too much. But if you’re betting on buy low WR1s…he’s a shot at the brass ring if all Rodgers needs is his key OLs back to help open things up more.
2) RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (trying to buy as an RB2.5-3)
It’s been a long time since Mitchell did anything of note (his debut with 100-yards). He missed games, came back and had a weak FF game Week 5, then a bye last week. There are all kinds of JaMycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson chirpers in the FF community…use it all to poach the true starting RB, Mitchell, for dirt cheap prices.
3) TE Dalton Schultz, DAL (Trying to buy as a low-end, distrusted TE1)
People just do not love/respect the name. I think he’s a top 2-5 TE in PPR. If the current owner has just Schultz at TE (on a bye) and needs a body this week…and you have excess at TE…like maybe you have Ertz from emergency use last week, maybe an Ertz for Schultz, on the current Ertz hype deal can be made.
4) RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Buy as an RB2.5-3.0)
In redraft, current owners have just about had it with this rookie who is running as an RB3. If you wanna bet he has an upside ahead, it’s a good time to invest and put him as your #3-4 RB.
5) WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Dynasty Alert…maybe buy this week, maybe wait a bit longer)
We want in on Toney, in Dynasty, but we need to time this right because the current owner is likely hyped too…but will be less hyped if Toney is going on IR/having ankle surgery. We need bad news to pour in here to assess how best to try and knife in there to get him…if you want him. We’ll discuss this more with his game recap out on Tuesday.
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***FIVE SELL HIGH PLAYERS***
*NOT ‘Sell at any price’…it’s sell HIGH/sell good. Try to find someone in love with your player or seen as a neat value thrown into a multiplayer deal. If no one respects the player/buys right…then walk away.*
1) TE Zach Ertz, ARI
I don’t see how Ertz walks into a new offense with a ton of weapons and is suddenly old Zach Ertz…on an offense not ever featuring the TE. Sell this hot, sell it fast.
2) WR Courtland Sutton, DEN
Love the player, but if he’s like your 3rd-4th-best WR/you have WR depth and you need to sell this high…he’s had a couple nice weeks in a row and had his value percolating. Not giving it away, just OK to sell high because you can’t fully trust this passing game under Teddy.
The schedule ahead (next 3-4 weeks) of cover CBs on him is not good.
3) WR Deebo Samuel SF
Again, I’m not against Deebo…I just think his standing in the FF-world is higher than it should be…a good time to cash out. He’s a top 3 scoring PPG FF WR. Use that to buy into something great.
4) WR Odell Beckham, CLE
Solid week…solid two of the last 3. If you have any OBJ lovers out there, you gotta dump him to them.
5) TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WSH
Back-to-back solid weeks, but you can’t trust this passing game…and Logan Thomas is due back in a couple of weeks. If you don’t need RSJ right now, if he was an emergency use this week…he has some value to throw in a deal to get a 2-for-1 thing you want done with a TE needy trade partner.
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***FIVE DEEP SLEEPER WAIVER PICKUPS***
*Total flyer/lowly owned or not-owned players
1) RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA
Taking a dart throw that Brian Flores gets mad at life and ‘changes things up’ with an RB change. Ahmed was running at RB with Malcolm Brown on the final/crucial series of the game/loss in Europe.
I’m not sure of this at all…just a flyer shot that an unannounced RB change might be at hand.
2) RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Started taking some receiving game work this week, usurping Brandon Bolden in the James White role. He’s also the natural takeover of main carry duties if Damien Harris goes down.
3) RB Jaret Patterson, WSH
If you fear the Antonio Gibson shin issue, then Patterson would be taking over a split role with J.D. McKissic…and Patterson seeing more work as the season gets away from Washington in the weeks to come.
4) RB Devonta Freeman, BAL
Looked like the best of the ancient RBs this past week…for whatever that is worth. During bye weeks…it may be worth more than nothing.
5) QB Trey Lance, SF
If you don’t love your QB2 and can afford to burn the roster spot in 4pts pass TD leagues to wait for Lance to return to 100% healthy and take the job as SF is dying off…this is a gamble that Shanahan doesn’t go back to Jimmy G.
6) WR Jamal Agnew, JAX
6 and 7 targets in a game the last two weeks, as he is playing more with D.J. Chark out.
5.5 catches for 59.5 yards per game is something to look at for the WR desperate. On a BYE this week is not favorable. Can wait a week if needed.
7) RB David Johnson, HOU
An obvious trade candidate in the NFL…and RBs are going down like crazy every week now. Teams should be interested in DJ, and the Texans should want to trade him as his contract ends this season. Should Carolina or Cincinnati or KC or the Chargers make this move? What about Cleveland if Hunt is done for 2021?
8) RB Rashaad Penny, SEA
Eligible to return Week 7, but who knows? If Chris Carson is done, and Penny returns…will he get one more shot?
9) RB Chris Evans, CIN
Looked great when Mixon went down for a bit Week 6. Samaje Perine is likely ahead of Evans right now, especially if a one-week thing, but if something long-term hit Mixon…it might be Evans they push in short order.
10) RB Joshua Kelley, LAC
Just a guess of the ‘what if Austin Ekeler goes down and misses time?’ RB to suddenly have big value…the RB on a top offense/O-Line.
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-- FIVE…IT’S OK TO QUIT THEM PLAYERS (for REDRAFT) --
1) RB Brandon Bolden, NE
Was running as the James White for three weeks but got stripped of that Week 6 apparently. I was hoping to get some PPR emergency use Week 6 out of him in PPR places in need…and got roasted.
2) RB Ty’Son Williams, BAL
Inactive Week 6…I’m done. Only a DEEP roster hold.
3) TE Jonnu Smith, NE
Has done almost nothing in New England. There’s plenty of other things to look at.
4) TE Robert Tonyan, GB
You think he’d get a TD any given week, but he can’t even get 10 yards in a game.
5) WR Bryan Edwards, LV
New coach, same treatment. No need to mess with this in redraft…but now we’re getting into ‘why bother’ in Dynasty when there are other interesting things or operational crisis needs right now.
You saw what he could do earlier in the year…but Vegas/Carr hasn’t seen it. I don’t need an award for holding on the longest for some Disney story to hit. He may make it in a year or whenever, but it might be without me sadly.
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***STREAMING DSTs OFF WAIVER(?) OPTIONS***--
1) Chargers-DST
Week 7 bye.
Where I want LAC is Weeks 8-17. *Listing ARI-DST because that’s the #1 most-owned DST for FFMers (along with BUF-DST).
Week 7 = BYE (ARI-DST v. HOU is a great start)
Week 8 = NE
Week 9 = at PHI (ARI-DST at SF)
Week 10 = MIN (ARI-DST v. CAR here, to avoid LAC)
Week 11 = PIT
Week 12 = at DEN
Week 13 = at CIN (ARI-DST at CHI as an option)
Week 14 = NYG
Week 15 = KC (ARI-DST at DET, to avoid LAC here)
Week 16 = at HOU
Week 17 = DEN
You can run the table the rest of the season with LAC + ARI, if they are as good as I believe they are (but that’s still fluid…we need Kenneth Murray back to aid the cause fully).
ARI + LAC means you get one of these DST vs. Mills, Mac J., Jimmy G. Darnold, Ben, Teddy, Fields, Dan Jones, Goff, Mills/Tyrod, Teddy
2) Browns-DST (not under 50% owned, but putting them on here in case the last two weeks gets them dropped further this week)
I love the way this defense looked in Week 4…and then they got slaughtered in Week 5 (LAC) and beat up Week 6 (ARI), as I hoped they would…as someone looking to Weeks 7-12, if I want.
Week 7 = v. DEN
Week 8 = v. PIT
(two of the worst teams/O-Lines in football Weeks 7-8)
Week 9 = at CIN…weaker O-Line, good QB
Week 10 = at NE…terrible O-Line, weaker QB
Week 11 = v. DET
3) Saints-DST
Week 7 at Seattle is a good start for a week. No good Week 8 vs. TB, but then a-go Week 9 vs. ATL and probably Week 10 at TEN.
4) Jets-DST
Desperation flyer here…vs. NE Week 7 with a rested, decent Jest defense.
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-- Sleeper/lesser-name IDPs whose box scores or live watch caught my attention --
1) LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, NE
8.0 tackles per game the last 4 weeks. He’s pushing towards being one of the NFLs top tackle count guys.
2) LB Micah Kiser, DEN
Josey Jewell gone for the season a few weeks ago, now Alexander Johnson gone for the season Week 6. Kiser was a tackle machine for LAR last season. I expect him to be elevated into a starting role with Justin Strnad.
3) DE Jonathan Greenard, HOU
Only three games played this season, but he has at least 1.0 sacks in each game. 4.3 tackles. 1.33 sacks, 1.6 TFLs per game this season.
4) SAF Sean Chandler, CAR
7.7 tackles per game the last three weeks…two games with 9 or more tackles.
5) LB Andre Van Ginkel, MIA
Last 3 games: 5.0 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.67 PDs, but only playing 40-70% of the snaps.
6) CB Keith Taylor, CAR
C.J. Henderson was inactive this week…there may be problems with his shoulder or his work ethic. Taylor had 10 tackles and 3 PDs in a giant splash onto the scene this week. I’m a fan of the rookie…a very physically tough corner that I think has a future at safety. Stephon Gillmore activated likely takes this away in a week or two or so.
Outtro: I hope Fantasy Football 2021 turns out like this…https://youtu.be/o6tz9pga4H4
