2022 Free Agent Positional Preview: Running Back
I researched the available free agent lists in late-Feb./early March in order to get a feel for the marketplace and identify key players likely on the move; players that could shift a team's fortunes under-the-radar if a team landed/grabbed a bunch of them. We have the obvious names, the under-the-radar, and the trap doors to look at.
Here’s my take on 2022 NFL free agency…the players I’m really watching for fantasy, handicapping, etc., on where they might land.
The Top 3 Available According To NFL Analysts:
1) James Conner, ARI – There’s no real consensus #1 here with various sites pushing Conner or Fournette or Patterson as the top RB get, depending upon the need…but Conner seems to always be the one their (the media’s) heart’s desire the most and he had a helluva a season with Arizona…scoring 1-yard TDs.
To speak to the non-consensus, I’ve seen Conner #1 on free agent lists at RB…and as low as #4-5, and everything in-between.
2) Leonard Fournette, TB – There’s conflict here…some show him #1-2, saying he turned his career around. Others wary of Fournette’s past have him more #4-5.
3) Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL – Analysts NOW get the possibilities here, after years of being wasted by various NFL teams. Analysts are delighted to find ‘their Deebo’ while others think he’s a bit too old (will be 31+ this season). He’ll be in-demand by many teams in title pursuit as a short-term add weapon.
The Top 3 Talents Available/To Target If I Were an NFL GM:
1) Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL – If my team was a contender and I could reasonably bring in CP on a short term deal and use him as a ‘Deebo’, not just an RB (like ATL ended up doing in the 2nd-half, for reasons unknown) plus have his kick return ability at the ready – he’s a nice piece for a contender, and I suspect he would like to be with a contender…he has about 1-2 more years in him.
2) David Johnson, HOU – For what the cost of CP will be, I’d probably rather spend on David Johnson and make him the reverse ‘Deebo’…a primary RB who can also be a star WR. He’s the best receiver back (considering hands and build) in the NFL…and all these geniuses spending 25 hours a day at the office cannot figure it out (like none of them could figure out CPatt). There could be a DJ renaissance if he lands right…like with Patterson in 2021.
DJ won’t be expensive or a long-term investment…which is what you want at RB.
3) Rashaad Penny – You could get a real lead, workhorse back at a discount here…because of all his career injury issues. However, he was so hot to end 2021 that he may have priced himself past my risk tolerance. He’s still only 26 years old.
The Top 3 Values/Sleepers According to FFM:
1) Boston Scott, PHI – Scott could be a fantastic passing game back weapon, but he’s also a hard-nosed runner as a lead dog if needed. He’s versatile and gritty and super-athletic. One of the great underutilized, underappreciated weapons in the NFL. And he’ll be available for a great discount.
2) Phillip Lindsay, MIA – This guy has been screwed by the NFL since not being invited to the Combine, nor getting drafted…then runs for 1,000+ yards in his first two seasons in the NFL and gets benched/cut for unknown reasons after that.
What NFL people are really missing is his terrific ability in the passing game…at minimum he could be used that way.
3) Ty Montgomery, NO – Everybody is gonna be running around looking for their ‘next Deebo’…what about a former stud WR in college, a 220-pound thick athlete, turned Packers RB in an emergency a few years ago…turned back to WR by the Saints recently.
He’s a cheap way for a team to have their own ‘Deebo’ in an instant…versatile to be a lead RB running the interior…or as a sturdy WR option.
The Top 3 Problems According to FFM:
1) Leonard Fournette, TB – If I were an NFL GM, I’d stay all the way away from Fournette in free agency. This contract is his last money grab before he departs the NFL via being released in year two of a bigger 3-year deal, I’m sure.
Jacksonville didn’t want Fournette. Arians was about to boot him in mid-2020 season…then the Bucs had to ride him. With Brady gone and him already having money and a ring…he’s going to be a money suck for some dupe franchise, I fear.
2) Marlon Mack, IND – I’m not sure how this guy was once considered a franchise back. Time has passed him by and so many other WAY more talented RBs have entered the league. There’s nothing left for Mack but ‘journeyman’.
3) Duke Johnson, MIA – Had one good game, and it was stat accumulation…nothing great he did, late in-season with Miami and now he’s being discussed as a neat sleeper free agent RB. Ummm, no. He was never that good and he’s run his course in the NFL. Good for an emergency when 3-5 of your RBs get COVID in a week.
Predictions/Comments:
-- This RB class is deep on ‘good’ or ‘OK’ talent, in a marketplace where most teams have their lead back…I’m not sure there’s one free agent RB that could get signed to a different team and would be thought to be THE STARTER without question. Mostly, they’d all be going into a split or fight for the role on new teams.
Rashaad Penny, Fournette or RoJo, Cordarrelle, Conner type guys WOULD more be thought of as starters if they return to their 2021 team. But going elsewhere would be more for an RBBC situation, planned.
-- Arizona has both James Conner and Chase Edmonds as free agents. I wouldn’t be shocked if Arizona wanted either or both back, so if they both leave…it probably means neither really wanted to stay there.
My nickel bet would be James Conner is back, but Edmonds bails.
-- I wonder if Sean McDermott is going to land the RB that he low-key chased the last time he was a free agent…Melvin Gordon. That would thus render Devin Singletary back to a split back role.
-- Rashaad Penny staying in Seattle is the odds-on favorite thing to happen. Anywhere else he goes; it won’t be as an assumed starter. If Penny stays with Seattle…how soon will it be before there is RB1 talk?
-- My favorite for landing Leonard Fournette: New Orleans…going back home, and they may need a lead back for just 2022, depending on how long Alvin Kamara will be out.
-- If the 49ers bring back Raheem Mostert…that could be a minor issue for Elijah Mitchell, but I think Mostert will bail for some other opportunity/the 49ers are kinda sick of his roller coaster ride of constant injury and money complaints.
-- Might David Johnson reunite with Bruce Arians? Fournette and RoJo are free agents likely on the move. Why not DJ to work short-term with Ke’Shawn Vaughn?
If KC ditches Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon, might David Johnson be the supper/pass game back for Clyde Edwards-Helaire…and then DJ would be a risk to really slice into CEH (like Williams and McKinnon did).
