5/18 MON
(4:53amCST)
Today/tomorrow
-- FAUX 2026 Computer Simulated season 1.0...a 10-part daily series studying, going through the win-loss projections of the season a couple weeks at a time.
-- IDP Dynasty projections 1.0
-- New Scouting Report: DT Caleb Banks
-- DRD rankings will now settle into once a week (min.) publishing the DRD top 300+ updates and adding/updating commentaries, etc. Likely every THU or FRI the rest of the preseason.
-- Miscellaneous reports on things that come my way and more scouting reports to come. I have a backlog of them to get published already.
This Week’s/Month’s Agenda…
-- 2026 Draft Guide studies and commentary writing is about to start...all month of May. More info on timings of the first reports to hit, etc., coming/debuting 2nd-half of May.
-- DRD valuations/rankings top 300+ board updates/adds to everyday post-NFL Draft week and every week through the entire offseason.
-- Prospect grades by position and rookie rankings boards are being debuted, updated and added to daily/weekly up to kick off 2026.
-- Dynasty and Best Ball rankings audits/updates daily/weekly.
-- Holy series QB and RB done. Holy RB Handcuffs underway (on hold for draft, since we’re this close)
-- Full scouting reports on various prospects from now until the NFL preseason. Deeper looks at Jam Miller, Kaelon Black, Cyrus Allen all on deck.
-- Any FFM News & Notes or Special Reports during the day as I get them.
-- New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...going through the entire staff...I am working on the framework of how I want to present that. This will be a first ever series (for me) where I go beyond ‘just the new head coaches’. ETA in May/June to start it up.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said Bucky Irving (shoulder) “will be limited during organized team activities but should be ready for training camp.” Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud describes Irving as “the chair” of what looks to be a running back by committee with Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.
I’ve had a bad feeling about Bucky Irving all offseason, and I do think that Kenneth Gainwell signing is going to have some kind of negative FF-impact on Bucky, at a minimum (like RB2 is more likely than RB1). At maximum, there may be a battle for the lead role week-to-week.
Bucs beat reporter Rick Stroud has a good insight into many TB things...
Zac Robinson’s words from the Stroud report:
“I think there’s always a sweet spot with the number of carries throughout the course of the season that you’re trying to hit with those guys,” Robinson said. “And then sometimes, sure, he’s running the rock great and he ends up with 25 carries, but he’s got 140 yards and you’re like, ‘Man, we needed every single one.’
“So there is a fine balance with it. But in terms of run concepts, I think Bucky can run everything. You know, he’s got some toughness, so you have to kind of save him from himself sometimes just because he is such a mentally tough, physically tough player. But yeah, I’m excited to see just what Bucky can (do).”
Better yet would be seeing Irving and Gainwell both on the field.
“Obviously, we’re missing (Irving) right now, but once he gets out there, I think it’s going to be great to see him and Kenny go hand in hand,” Robinson said. “Shoot, one guy might get this amount the next week. They might end up balanced, feeling the hot hand, and we’ll see where it goes.”
Every time I think about Bucky Irving for FF 2026, this plays in my head: https://youtu.be/FoIo33eOQw0?si=x4aWMkSwFY7Mqg7C
.
-- HEADLINE: The Athletic’s Joseph Person reports the Panthers aren’t expected to extend Bryce Young before the 2026 season.
Smart. Very smart. Don’t do it. Don’t commit long term to him or your franchise we’ll never get to the promised land! For the sake of Tet, please don’t do it!!!
Young/rookie QBs aren’t worth what they used to be.
The 2023 NFL Draft:
#1 pick Bryce Young...not early extended.
#2 pick C.J. Stroud...not early extended.
#4 pick Anthony Richardson...colossal bust.
And I was right there chirping about Stroud and AR as top of the draft assets. 2022 and 2023 were the pivot points but the NFL hasn’t fully noticed yet, and in 2023 none of us knew the sea change coming.
If I were an NFL GM, I would never draft a QB anymore. I’d do all my scouting and movement around guys who have been in the league as backups, developmentals and target them. Target the guy’s Shanahan, Ben Johnson, O’Connell, Coen, etc., are grooming.
Let other teams waste time and money riding the first few years of QBs, then you swoop in and get 1-2 of them in trade deals or as free agents.
I’d rather have trained/matured Tyson Bagent or Mac Jones on a decent 3-year deal than commit a fortune to any of the 2027 rookie QBs, at this point, except if I were the Indy GM especially, I’d consider Arch Manning or maybe Denver for the name appeal.
If were to draft a QB out of college it would have to be Joe Burrow 2.0, and I wouldn’t be planning on ever having the #1 pick in any draft, so...
-- RC’s “Tales from the Road”...
The Houston trip wraps up this morning, as I pack up for the 3-day trek back to home this day. I could do it in two days, but three reasons why I am not...
1) I like shorter days driving so I can enjoy it and it not be such a grind. Plus, in my condition with the meds I’m taking...taking more breaks and getting to the hotel for a nap is critical.
2) I could save time going through Atlanta but every time I go around/through ATL it is a nightmare. I don’t need that stress. The little longer way that I go back home was wonderful on the way out, so I’m following it on the way back.
3) Knowing I was going a longer/specific route back home, I set up meetings for FFM/business and to see family/friends to thank them for their support of my prostate cancer battle in each of my overnight stays on the way back, as I did on the way out. Tax write-offs baby!
This Houston trip is the most vacation-y type thing I’ve done in decades. It was great and weird.
My idea of a vacation is more on the relaxing side, but this trip has had something booked every hour it seemed. All good and wonderful things I did, but now I am a week behind on work. I tried to cram work in the morning and at night but there wasn’t as much time as I had hoped. And my point on doing this trip was not work and definitely not overwork.
I am focused on 2026 schedule release studies...so, I am behind on answering emails and working on the draft guide and IDP rankings. I got 3 weeks to crunch/catchup before my next trip...planned a year ago+ before I knew I had cancer -- a 30th anniversary trip to Niagara Falls. We’ve tried to go to the Falls at our 25- and 20-year marks, but COVID and a freak thing that closed the hotel for 2 weeks last second, one of them when we were booked a year ahead. Maybe this time we’ll actually get to go for our first time ever!!
So many great memories made on this Houston trip, but I am ready to get back to normal...in 3 days...because the next 3 days are travel home and work at the hotel days.
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES (pulled from an internet A.I. search, I try to make sure it’s accurate but some of it is ‘trust in AI’) ==
-- Kayshon Boutte latest? https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/patriots-trade-rumor-reignited-romeo-133025842.html
-- (YAHOO) Vincent Bonsignore, who used to cover the Los Angeles Rams as a beat writer and now cover the Las Vegas Raiders, authored a piece in the NY Post this week that explains how LA is facing “the most daunting schedule I’ve ever seen”.
While Bonsignore no longer covers the Rams, he was intimately familiar with how LA’s front office operates and applies a broader context with his overall NFL understanding. When Bonsignore speaks on the Rams, fans should listen. The Rams’ schedule will either test them as eventual champions or expose them for premature offseason hype:
Here is where the league did the Rams no favors whatsoever.
Not only do they have to wait until Week 11 to finally get a break with their bye week, but immediately after that respite they will gear up for one of the most brutal stretches of games we’ve ever seen.
It all starts with the Wednesday night Thanksgiving Eve game against the Packers at SoFi Stadium, followed by a Thursday night game at home against the Chiefs. Up next are the 49ers in Santa Clara, followed by a home game against the Cowboys.
If they survive all that with their heads above water and still in contention for the division title, a three-game mad dash to the finish line awaits them in which they’ll get two chances to knock out the Seahawks.
Or, vice versa.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
I shared this with my youngest son who never heard the song or seen this video before and has little/no idea of the MTV generation. I rewatched it and was kinda jamming out to it out of nowhere. I used to hate this song...now it’s kinda stuck in my head.
Now I’m gonna get it stuck in your head and in your eyes if you watch the video: https://youtu.be/5IsSpAOD6K8?si=VTAlvYiwK5frBnS2
The NFL should use this as the theme song for the NFL Draft each year...
== New Daily Series ==
Let’s rank The Best players/The Most Important players in the NFL!
The NFL does that series each summer where the players (and maybe others?) vote on the top 100 for the prior season, and the outcome (to me) is like a voting by people who never watch football besides highlights and people without a clue voting in very bizarre ways. You know this series, right?
Well, I was wanting to do a kinda top 100 type thing myself, but I am going to tone it down to the top 64...but using two players from each team, so it may be more of a true top 40-50(?) with some forced stragglers on there for the player’s after 40-50+...but it should be ‘close enough’ and ‘interesting enough’, and I guarantee my rankings will be way different than the NFL voting.
I’ll do a team a day, two players from it and when we get enough you’ll see 4-5 tiers develop. I’ll go alphabetical order, but to switch up my usual pattern...I’ll do a reverse alphabetical order. We start with Washington and add two more each day until we get to Arizona.
*When I have an offensive lineman, I’m going to add their overall grades from PFF last year for some context...XX Overall Grade/rank at their position...XX/x, XX/x Pass/Run Block grade with the rank at their position for 2025.
Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Trent Williams (92/3rd OT...80/12th, 93/2nd), Tristan Wirfs (93/2nd OT...85/4th, 92/3rd), Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield
Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, Creed Humphrey (89/1st OC...84/1st, 89/2nd), Puka Nacua, Andrew Thomas (90/4th OT...87/3rd, 85/7th), Rashawn Slater (2024 numbers: 91/2nd OT...90/3rd, 78/15th), Justin Jefferson, Drake Maye
Jordan Mailata (88/6th OT...82/6th, 82/6th), Laremy Tunsil (85/8th OT...89/2nd, 75/21st), Grey Zabel (From Wk14 on, the SEA march to SB: 82/8th OG...79/10th, 82/5th...9 grades in the playoffs), Brock Purdy, Quinyon Mitchell, Christian Gonzalez, Sam Darnold, Aaron Brewer (87/2nd OC...71/10th, 92/1st), Zach Tom (84/7th OT...79/15th, 82/12th), Kolton Miller (hurt 2025, 2024: 81/14th OT, 82/11th, 72/25th)
Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley, Christian Darrisaw (healthy...he’s top tier, but injuries are killing him), Tyler Linderbaum (80/4th OC...63/22nd, 84/4th), Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Peter Skoronski (79/5th OG...85/2nd, 73/10th),
Travis Hunter, Joey Porter Jr., Kelvin Banks (74/29th OT...70/41st, 76/19th), Malik Willis, Breece Hall, Parker Washington, Will Anderson, Armand Membou (73/31st OT...74/31st, 72/27th), Erik McCoy (68/16th OC...84/1st, 62/25th)
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
