2021-22 NFL Handicapping/Picks: Super Bowl Betting

Last week’s results:

Best Bet: 1-0 (100%)

Overall ATS: 2-0 (25%)

No spread picks: 1-1 (50%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 0-0 (00.0%), 0-0 ATS (00.0%)

Playoff results so far:

Best Bet: 2-1 (67%)

Overall ATS: 7-5 (58%)

No spread picks: 7-5 (58%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 1-2 (33%), 1-2 ATS (33%)

2021 Regular Season:

Blazing Five/top 5 picks: 46-44 (51.1%)

Best Bet: 12-6 (66.7%)

Survivor Pool: kicked out Wk9 (LAR-GB-CAR-BUF-NE-PIT-ARI-CIN-DAL-TB-CLE-BAL-IND-SEA-MIA-LAC-SF-TEN)

Overall ATS: 146-125-1 (53.9%)

No spread picks: 174-97-1 (64.2%)

Calling Underdog outright winner: 18-16 (52.9%), 21-14 ATS (60.0%)

This week’s picks (will update as injury news hits or a big spread change):

CIN v. LAR (-4.5)

The Computer says…CIN by 0.7 (a 5.2 spread differential)

I think the Bengals are the better team here…as I’ve said about every week for the last 6+ weeks. In their last six games that the Bengals have played, that mattered (not the Week 18 with backups), the Bengals are 6-0…6-0 versus the spread…and four of those games they were underdogs going into it and got the upset win. Everyone keeps dismissing the Bengals…and it’s been the wrong bet for two months now.

I am 6-0 as well picking games in that six-game span, pushing the Bengals…so, no sense in stopping now. I do believe the Bengals are the better team, but nothing would shock me in this game/the irregular game called ‘the Super Bowl’. The Bengals have the most underrated defense in the NFL…and the better QB. What’s not to like?

When the topic of the Super Bowl comes up the past two weeks, everyone is asking me – “Do you really think the Bengals can win, that would be crazy?” No one is asking me…”Do you think the Rams can really win this one?” There’s such public brainwashing FOR the Rams + AGAINST the Bengals, which makes me LOVE this play of the Bengals +points.

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For FF/DFS or prop bets…

I don’t see any super slick ways to play it…or super-sleeper players.

The one thing that kinda caught my eye…there’s a lot of discussion of ‘Jalen Ramsey shutting down Ja’Marr Chase’. I would be inclined to bet against that. Jalen Ramsey has played as a floating defender, linebacker WAY more than as a corner this season…yet, the analysts all keep talking about Ramsey shutting down Chase…and they say that every week the Rams play (Ramsey taking out the opposing #1 WR), despite the tape showing Ramsey barely shadows anyone anymore (that’s how you know the ‘experts’ aren’t studying tape for real). Ramsey could always make an exception here, but why now? When he has shadowed some in-game (for plays or a series, not all game) this year, against good/great QBs, they’ve been able to throw on Ramsey. He’s not a 100% lockdown guy like he used to be. Still great but not the un-throw-on-able guy in 2021/22. I would give a general ‘don’t fear Ramsey’ lean for your betting or DFS.

Ramsey has had the most targets against him for a season since his rookie 2018…and ditto for completed passes against him (per NFL stats). He does have a career high 16 blitzes…up from his usual zero in a season earlier in his career. He’s not an exclusive corner anymore…he’s more an exclusive hybrid LB mixed with some CB/SAF.

Opposing QBs have thrown for 300+ yards in a game vs. the LAR pass defense in four of their last 8 games. The QBs that didn’t…Russell Wilson, Huntley, Kyler, Jimmy G. The ones who have: Kyler, Cousins, Jimmy G., Brady. I’d bet Burrow to be just fine against the good but overrated Rams defense. And thus, Chase, and especially Higgins, should be just fine.

Good luck with whatever you are betting. I talked about betting this game and more Kenny Pickett prop betting on the soon-to-be-released Bet The Close Podcast (we’ll notify you when that is up).

From a DFS expert I’ve been talking with, he wanted to pass along two notes:

1) Kupp and Stafford have been in the optimal DraftKings Showdown lineup for 5 straight Rams games and 8 of the past 9 games. 

2) Trent Taylor is also an intriguing “punt” play (i.e. very low salary) for people wanting to go with a top heavy lineup. He barely gets any action but at $1,000 on DK, all he’ll need is a catch or two to hold up his end of the bargain.  There is also the special teams upside with him too.