Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
2/9 MON
(7:40amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
My annual Super Bowl Game Report Extravaganza will be worked on all day and will post when complete...evening time eastern projected.
All week, after we wrap the Super Bowl, I’ll be working on...
Working on the next full scouting reports... One of the high rated WRs is on deck...as well as a wild card guy is on the next-up that I stumbled across, we’ll see if he is worthy of a deep study...and more names as I start to knock more of the full reports down now.
Senior Bowl Preview Scouting Reports continue with the few I have left to edit/publish...but we now turn to Combine preview reports as well, as we set sail for that mega important event.
Next Senior Bowl practice notes/report throughout the week as I get some better cut up tape to work with...Senior Bowl game itself report after the final practice reports. No need to rush these things.
Any FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
Holy series ‘QBs 1.0’ is about 3/4ths done...it will publish post-Super Bowl week.
New coaching staff hire’s analysis series...going through the entire staffs...I am working on the framework of how I want to present that. This will be a first ever series (for me) where I go beyond ‘just the new head coaches’.
== SUPER BOWL FIRST REACTION ==
-- I’m going to do/work on my Super Bowl extravaganza game report all day, which will have some more details on all things/thoughts, and that will be out later today, but first reactions to some things...
It was over before it started: https://x.com/wingoz/status/2020644352394145886?s=43
-- The feeling I get from most people even without me asking for it...people were bored by this Super Bowl. From all angles. Casual fans weren’t into it. Serious fans weren’t into it. This may be a problem more than THEY think. I’ll get into it in more detail on the big game report.
I just overheard so many ‘the game was dull’ passing by people in my hotel or on the elevator unprompted...it was weird.
https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2020675520816468151?s=43
https://x.com/akafaceus/status/2020689606648504333?s=43
-- Once again, a game is determined by the #1 thing in football...offensive line.
Seattle sacks in games before the Super Bowl:
1 = v. LAR (NFC title game)
2 = v. SF
3 = v. SF
2 = v. CAR
0 = v. LAR https://x.com/fdsportsbook/status/2020694344056164368?s=43
1 = v. IND https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2020685540451074117?s=43
Then 6 sacks, officially, here.
All those games listed before the Super Bowl...the low sack totals -- Seattle won them all.
This game seemed more about...
The Seattle O-Line development down the stretch and into/through the playoffs...and the Patriots O-Line getting exposed, as it has this whole playoff.
It’s more about Klint Kubiak, who Seattle will very much miss when he leaves...but he leaves behind a nice O-Line structure.
Klint Kubiak is better at his job than Josh McDaniels. https://x.com/stuckey2/status/2020652947588436168?s=43
Seattle’s defense was great, but this is more about the Patriots ultimately, finally being exposed as a fraud representative in this game.
https://x.com/holdencantor/status/2020657294573441150?s=43
-- I think about how often we were we railing, last draft season, on the fact that the Patriots were making a massive mistake with Will Campbell as a draft pick, and for putting him at tackle, and for NE and then entire NFL for not drafting Grey Zabel as the #1 offensive lineman?
The drafting of Campbell by NE, and the steal of the draft by SEA with Zabel much later in the 1st-round -- it may have been the event that determined this Super Bowl.
FFM scouting is still ‘batting’ for a high average in the scouting game. I’d say the highest.
-- A month+ ago, FF owners were like...man, I hope Kenneth Walker lands well in free agency because Seattle definitely likes Zach Charbonnet better and Seattle would be dumb to put any money into an RB they don’t seem to love or need all that much.
TODAY = FF owners are like...wow, Kenneth Walker may be the best RB in the NFL, give him all the monies!
Whatever people/the masses ‘just saw’ (or think they saw) is what they think is ‘fact’ for the rest of time, so there are three unquestionable truths that come from this game for the unwashed masses based on the ‘what I just saw’ principal...and they will be unchecked thoughts now for the next 6+ months without any new games to divert attention:
1) Kenneth Walker is the best RB in football.
2) Drake Maye was really never that good...he’s an NFL hype creation. https://x.com/danfetes/status/2020691494190125355?s=43
3) Christian Gonzalez is the best CB in the NFL...because they saw him have 2-3 really nice passes defended.
-- OK, enough for this morning. We’ll get into more topics, and deeper, more player talk, Bad Bunny analysis, the commercials...all that on the mega game report later today.
-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Kansas City
(other notes)
-- KC is WAYYY over the cap in the early phases...#32/32 teams in CAP space at -$57M. Work to do.
And free agent Travis Kelce will likely return and will want $$$$.
I see $40-50M in CAP to cut and take smaller hits on...Jawaan Taylor getting cut is like a $20M savings alone.
Kareem Hunt and Marquise Brown are free agents added to our list.
QB:
Joe Flacco (free agent)
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
Malik Willis (free agent)
RB:
Javonte Williams (free agent, but I highly assume Dallas will sign him long-term)
Rico Dowdle (free agent)
David Montgomery? ($8.4M pay to play 2026 or cut for $4.9M hit, split in half on a past-June 1st cut)
Travis Etienne (free agent)
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Kareem Hunt (free agent)
Nick Chubb (free agent)
Jerome Ford (free agent)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
Joe Mixon ($10M pay to play 2026, or $2M hit to cut)...can he ever play again anyway?
WR:
George Pickens (free agent, but I can’t imagine Dallas lets him go to FA)
Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce
Christian Watson (free agent...but doubtful GB lets him go)
Romeo Doubs (free agent)
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
Christian Kirk (free agent)
Marquise Brown (free agent)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Evan Engram? ($14M pay for 2026 or cut for $10M hit, which they can maneuver with a post-June 1st cut)
David Njoku (free agent)
Mike Gesicki ($7.7M pay or cut for $4.3M)
Tommy Tremble ($8M pay for 2026 or cut for $2.2M hit post-June 1st)
Other:
OL Braden Smith (free agent)
EDGE Trey Hendrickson (free agent)
CB Greg Newsome (free agent)
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
2/08/26, Day 16 in JAX
9 of 39 radiation treatments done so far. No radiation on weekends.
Two weeks down, 6 more to go.
A simple note for my diary...
I got to spend the day and watch the game with my son...life doesn’t get any better than that...unless both my sons could’ve been here.
I had a blast with him watching the paint dry bowl.
My daily food diary...
Day 16 food spend = Hotel breakfast. $15 Mod Pizza lunch. $15 Five Guys dinner (just counting my cost, not my sons). $30 total
16-day total food spend = $394...$24.63 per day average...this weekend did end up tough on my budget.
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