Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
2/3 TUE
(7:52amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Senior Bowl Preview Scouting Reports continue with the few I have left to edit/publish...but we now turn to Combine preview reports, as we set sail for that mega important event.
Next Senior Bowl practice notes/report throughout the week as I get some better cut up tape to work with...Senior Bowl game itself report after the final practice reports. No need to rush these things.
Any FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Working on the next full scouting reports... Ty Simpson is projected to publish later today, to compare him to Mendoza among other things. One of the high rated WRs is on deck...as well as a wild card guy I stumbled across, we’ll see if he is worthy of a deep study...and more names as I start to knock more of the full reports down now.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
HOLY players intro to start the upcoming series planned to post midday or so.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Rams HC Sean McVay said “I’m keeping my fingers crossed” that Matthew Stafford returns in 2026.
HEADLINE: Rams HC Sean McVay said Matthew Stafford will not require surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back.
We seem to go through this every year...Stafford isn’t sure if he’s back...and his literal back is an issue that plays into that. This will be the year none of us takes any of this remotely serious...which means...’watch out’ for the swerve.
Stafford will be 38.5 this season. He’ll likely use this ‘I’m not sure’ routine to get a better deal out of LAR. Stafford has one year remaining at $48.3M in 2026. There are some ‘void years’ from 2027-2030, but they don’t matter. I bet he’d like to turn his 1-yr/$48M deal into a 2-yr/$60-70M, and then renegotiate that again next year...like he has done for a while now.
Puka Nakua’s FF-value changes radically the moment Stafford is out of the picture. *SEE: Justin Jefferson 2025 with JJM-Wentz-Brosmer.
-- HEADLINE: Broncos promoted pass game coordinator and QB coach Davis Webb to offensive coordinator.
This is the biggest ‘no duh’ of the week. Once Sean Payton fired his long-time O-C, you knew it was for creating a spot for Webb.
But look for Webb to be on the move after this season. All these head coaches that are the play callers...it doesn’t help the young offensive minds get that experience and a resume item.
I bet Joe Brady never reached out to him to be the O-C in Buffalo with Webb’s good friend Josh Allen...Brady does not want to hire a threat to his job.
I would’ve hired Webb, betting on the come, to be the actual head coach if I were the Bills GM/owner over Joe Brady. Actually, I would have hired Brian Daboll first...then Webb as second choice. Josh Allen’s window is only so long...young/first-time head coaches can be tricky and can waste his remaining years. But the Bills took the weak option (hire Brady).
The Bills are getting exposed for being the Canadian Bengals...a bad organization with weak leaders, a mediocre or worse roster outside of QB, and the franchise being propped up by a superstar QB.
What happens if we’re in the era where the QB/the QB differentials don’t matter hardly at all...and it’s all about head coach, system, offensive coordinator, and chiefly O-Line? Mahomes and Allen thrived in the era of ‘QB is everything’. Notice how they fell in 2025...the year everything changed with team dynamics and all QBs are some variation of ‘good’?
-- HEADLINE: NFL insider Josina Anderson reports former Dolphins QB coach and pass game coordinator Darrell Bevell is expected to meet in-person with the Jets for their offensive-coordinator vacancy.
The version of when the Grim Reaper shows up at your door is Darrell Bevell hired by a team to be their O-C.
Run out of Seattle in 2017.
O-C for Matt Patricia in Detroit...then was interim HC there when Patricia was so bad he was fired midseason of his 2nd-year.
O-C for the illustrious Urban Meyer season in Jacksonville, possibly the worst coaching job in the history of the NFL (enjoy your 7-figure paid Fox football analyst!), and Bevell became interim head coach a few weeks into Meyer’s first season.
Bet money that the next (interim) head coach of the Jets is Bevell, if he gets hired, by Week 5-10 in 2026.
-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Green Bay
(other notes)
-- Green Bay may be in some trouble. In a bad salary cap situation now, and the contracts they can get out of to save CAP are with mostly key players...which means those key players probably want better deals (Jacobs, Elgon Jenkins, Keisean Nixon, Kraft) and they have several free agents who are helpful but very likely leaving.
QB:
Joe Flacco (free agent)
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
Malik Willis (free agent)
RB:
Javonte Williams (free agent, but I highly assume Dallas will sign him long-term)
Rico Dowdle (free agent)
Davis Montgomery? ($8.4M pay to play 2026 or cut for $4.9M hit, split in half on a past-June 1st cut)
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Jerome Ford (free agent)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
WR:
George Pickens (free agent, but I can’t imagine Dallas lets him go to FA)
Romeo Doubs (free agent)
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Evan Engram? ($14M pay for 2026 or cut for $10M hit, which they can maneuver with a post-June 1st cut)
David Njoku (free agent)
Mike Gesicki ($7.7M pay or cut for $4.3M)
Tommy Tremble ($8M pay for 2026 or cut for $2.2M hit post-June 1st)
Other:
Trey Hendrickson (free agent)
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
2/02/26, Day 10 in JAX
5 of 39 radiation treatments done so far. No radiation on weekends.
Nothing major to report for the diary today.
The only mildly interesting thing was that I had two new people on the 3-person radiation team today. And everything was going as it usually does. I got up onto the table for the prep to begin. They did all my prep and were wrapping up to leave the room to start the procedure...and I happened to notice Tom Petty on the speaker system. Usually, it’s classical or some soft mood sounds for your relaxation. But there was Petty jamming on. I recalled it was different and liked it...and then two seconds later, as the last tech was leaving the room to go to the control room, he caught ‘the sounds’...and he shouted to me ‘is Tom Petty OK’? I shouted back, ”YES...but maybe this song is a little wild to listen to on a radiation table”...as I hear, ‘Last Dance with Mary Jane...one more chance to kill the pain...’ Not necessarily upbeat for the situation!
But then The White Stripes popped up next in the mix, Seven Nation Army, and everything was cool...except -- how am I supposed to lie totally still while Jack White was making me want to tap my fingers and toes. I held it together to the end. I’m gonna see if I get to choose the music for treatments today!
My daily food diary...
Day 9 food spend = HOTEL Breakfast. $10 Full Sam’s Club Pizza. Sam’s Pizza for dinner. Chocolate Chip Muffin that I love and grab from the breakfast bar when they have them, and squirrel them away...$20 total spend.
10-day total food spend = $233...$23.30 per day average...starting to head back towards my $20 budget per day goal.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
------------------------
2/2 MON
(7:22amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Senior Bowl Preview Scouting Reports...now turn to Combine preview reports, as we set sail for that mega important event. Basically the Senior Bowl players I still have to work on, especially the late add offensive players.
Next Senior Bowl practice throughout the week as I get some better cut up tape to work with...Senior Bowl game report after the final practice reports. No need to rush these things.
Any FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Working on the next full scouting reports...looks like Ty Simpson, to compare him to Mendoza...one of the high rated WRs...and a wild card guy I stumbled across, we’ll see if he is worthy of a deep study...and more names as I start to knock more of the full reports down now.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- HEADLINE: Cardinals hired Mike LaFleur as their new head coach.
He’s getting huge credit for Stafford’s MVP season. Really? An offensive coordinator that didn’t call plays...he’s promoted to a big-time job because Stafford and Puka added Adams, and crushed...via Sean McVay. LaFleur was ‘near it’, so I guess that is good enough.
I remember LaFleur from his NY Jets stint as a real offensive coordinator...not good/not attention getting, 2021-2022...but he didn’t have a lot to work with to be fair. They drafted Zach Wilson #2 overall...and Wilson’s failure should fall back on LaFleur, in some respect, but I guess only when he’s around Stafford, as McVay’s high paid secretary/executive assistant is he credited with things.
I don’t get this at all. I‘ve seen some of his press conferences, interactions...and from what I see, I don’t believe it is an NFL head coach/CEO at all. But...let’s see how he puts his staff together and what he does in free agency before totally burying him. Right now, I do not understand this at all.
------------------
GEMINI research and opinion on LaFleur (which nof course leans ‘glowing’ because it reflects the collective nation’s football writer puff...
Mike LaFleur's Coaching Profile:
NFL Career Path
- Arizona Cardinals (2026–Present): Head Coach.
- Los Angeles Rams (2023–2025): Offensive Coordinator. Under LaFleur, the 2025 Rams offense ranked #1 in both points and yards, helping Matthew Stafford achieve an MVP-caliber season.
- New York Jets (2021–2022): Offensive Coordinator under Robert Saleh.
- San Francisco 49ers (2017–2020): Passing Game Coordinator. He was a key architect of the offense that reached Super Bowl LIV.
- Atlanta Falcons (2015–2016): Offensive Assistant.
- Cleveland Browns (2014): Offensive Intern.
College Coaching (2009–2013)
- Davidson (2013): Offensive Coordinator/QBs/WRs.
- Saint Joseph's (2010–2012): Offensive Coordinator.
- Elmhurst (2009): Offensive Assistant (his alma mater).
Coaching Influences & 'The Tree'
Mike LaFleur is a central figure in the most successful modern coaching tree in the NFL, often referred to as the Shanahan-McVay Tree.
Primary Mentors
- Kyle Shanahan: LaFleur spent nearly a decade working under Shanahan in Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco. He is considered one of the purest practitioners of Shanahan’s "outside zone" run scheme.
- Sean McVay: His three seasons in Los Angeles were pivotal. While Shanahan gave him his foundation, McVay is credited with mentoring LaFleur on the nuances of being a Head Coach and refining his passing game philosophy.
- Matt LaFleur: His older brother (Green Bay Packers Head Coach) has been a lifelong influence. The two grew up in a football family; their father, Denny LaFleur, was a long-time assistant at Central Michigan.
The LaFleur Coaching Tree Relations
As a "branch" himself, Mike is part of a massive interconnected web:
- Robert Saleh: A close personal friend (Mike was the best man at Saleh’s wedding). They coached together in San Francisco before Mike joined him in New York.
- Mike McDaniel: Worked alongside LaFleur for years under Shanahan; they are often cited as the two primary "disciples" who evolved the 49ers' offensive identity.
- Raheem Morris & Dan Quinn: Colleagues from his time in Atlanta and Los Angeles.
Offensive Philosophy
LaFleur’s "tree" influence is evident in his schematic flexibility:
- The Run Game: Utilizes heavy "Shanahan" zone-running schemes to create "illusion of complexity," making different plays look identical at the snap.
- The Passing Game: In Los Angeles, he adopted McVay's emphasis on "Duo" run schemes and heavy use of 11-personnel (3 WRs) to stress defenses vertically and horizontally.
- Player Development: He has a reputation for maximizing "position-less" players, notably overseeing the record-breaking rookie season of Puka Nacua and the late-career resurgence of Matthew Stafford.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak “intends to try to work out a deal to become the next head coach of the Raiders.”
‘Intends’? ‘Intends to try to’?
Weird language.
There are no other head coaching jobs available now. Kubiak either has no leverage now, per se...or they’ve already worked this out days/weeks ago and they just can’t announce it until after the Super Bowl.
I never want to assume the Raiders do a logical thing, so let’s see.
-- HEADLINE: 49ers hired Raheem Morris as their new defensive coordinator.
BUT I THOUGHT GUS BRADLEY WAS SOOOO GOOD?
This an upgrade for the 49ers defense.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo reports Eagles D-C Vic Fangio’s return for next season “has been uncertain”
I guess we are watching two things in Philly...
1) The fall of the Eagles current ‘Dynasty’ in real-time...coaches bailing, no one wants to take the open spots...AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts fighting each other (figuratively) and both battling team management as well.
So, let me understand -- the Eagles win the Super Bowl...they are the defending Super Bowl champs, remember? They win the last Super Bowl but the QB (that game’s MVP) sucks, and everyone in Philly knows it and it’s time to move on/change and no one wants to coach with the head coach who just coached a team to the Super Bowl? I thought winning a Super Bowl gives you powers of immunity for like 5-50 years?
Not in the new era...you enjoy a Super Bowl title for a few months, and then back to over-realistic expectations to win the thing every year for forever...or face hurtful MEMEs!!!!
2) Nick Sirianni, as a leader/CEO, is now in question...no one has wanted that offensive coordinator job...and now Fangio is thinking about jetting out? And Jonathan Gannon not waiting to see if he could ‘go home’ to be with Sirianni again?
Howie Roseman is losing control of the great thing he had. The NFC East is wide open in 2026.
IT’S ALL JALEN HURTS’ FAULT...that stupid MVP of the big game...how dare he humiliate the ‘chosen one’ Patrick Mahomes!! I wish we would’ve never won the Super Bowl if it meant another year or week with too focused/too dedicated Jalen Hurts, I mean...lighten up, what are you trying to win the Super Bowl or something? Slow down and talk to more people and maybe we might win the Super Bowl...I mean, we did just win the Super Bowl, but that was probably luck overcoming that Jalen Hurts isn’t cool enough for A.J. Brown. I mean our QB can’t even appreciate his lunatic #1 WR who reads books on the sidelines in-game, as everyone laughs?, he reads books in-game in-between other forms of ‘checking out’ and sideline tantrums.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports former Titans HC Brian Callahan is a candidate for the Giants’ offensive-coordinator vacancy.
Every other day, John is interviewing either a possible nightmare candidate or a fresh/interesting one. It’s gonna be a HUGE fantasy ramification what way Harbaugh goes.
-- Let’s end this section on a lighter note.
No intro, just watch all the way through...
https://x.com/happypunch/status/2017783175867445404?s=43
-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Detroit
(other notes)
-- Detroit doesn’t have much CAP space to start the offseason...and they have some defenders to pay up (or lose), especially Brian Branch.
-- Add David Montgomery to the growing overload of available in trade or free agent RBs. Actually, that growing list likely means there’s nowhere for Montgomery to go really...so a renegotiation (downward) to stay in Detroit could happen...it’s going to happen to many RBs this free agency -- the RB devaluation will be breathtaking in 2026, when you see the contracts and roles many ‘names’ have to accept.
QB:
Joe Flacco (free agent)
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
RB:
Javonte Williams (free agent, but I highly assume Dallas will sign him long-term)
Rico Dowdle (free agent)
Davis Montgomery? ($8.4M pay to play 2026 or cut for $4.9M hit, split in half on a past-June 1st cut)
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Jerome Ford (free agent)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
WR:
George Pickens (free agent, but I can’t imagine Dallas lets him go to FA)
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Evan Engram? ($14M pay for 2026 or cut for $10M hit, which they can maneuver with a post-June 1st cut)
David Njoku (free agent)
Mike Gesicki ($7.7M pay or cut for $4.3M)
Tommy Tremble ($8M pay for 2026 or cut for $2.2M hit post-June 1st)
Other:
Trey Hendrickson (free agent)
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
2/01/26, Day 9 in JAX
4 of 39 radiation treatments done so far. No radiation on weekends.
Nothing super memorable happened today, a quiet day of work and sleep...and eating.
Two quick notes, so I remember when I look back in the future:
1) So, I woke up at 5:30am...took the dog out at 5:45am...it was SO COLD. I triple layered...but the 15-20 mph winds cut right through it seemed paired with 21-degree temps...’feels like’ less than 10.
How did this happen to me...in Florida? Where is global warming at when you need it?
It will be 72 degrees Wednesday...with a low of 50.
The 2nd item is food related...
My daily food dairy...
2) I made my pilgrimage to Raising Canes...a 25-minute jaunt to see my old friend. When I got there, at 10:30am...there were ZERO cars there. I don’t mean no customers in the drive thru...I mean not one car anywhere in the parking lot or drive thru. Were they closed? Has a Canes ever closed…like permanently from bad business...the internet showed them clearly in business/open. Canes usually people wrapped around the building at eating time. This was a bit early for people to eat lunch -- but NO cars at all? I’m the only freak in all of Jacksonville who eats lunch at 10:30am, when the offer is extended?
I circled the building trying to see lights or humans, and as I made the final wrap around the side...there...right there...I thought I saw a human moving inside, like an episode of some ghost hunter show or scary movie. It was a flash of a human...i think...or was it my mind playing tricks?
No horror story ending...they were open. I’ve never seen a Canes with zero cars. As soon as I ordered and was waiting for the food, then like five cars arrived to the lot + drive thru...I saw the parade as I left with my goods. Perfect timing. And then I drove over to a spot under a tree...and me and my dog ate some Canes. Mostly me. So-so-so good.
Day 9 food spend = HOTEL Breakfast. $11 Canes Lunch. $12 Chipotle dinner...$23 total spend.
9-day total food spend = $223...$24.77 per day average...I’m still off track of my $20 per day avg. goal for this 2-month existence/sentence, but if I decide to boost my budget to $25 per day...I’m right there.
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
