Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/28 WED
(8:11amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Senior Bowl Preview Scouting Reports...will continue to post this week and into next week I suspect. They are all guys going to the Combine, so I want to be sure to see all of them before that event and I will update any player previews that radically impressed or not during the Senior Bowl week.
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Playoff Game Reports will be out this week when they’re finished.
Anything else that pops up, and any betting opportunities I might see.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
-- Needless to say, I was shocked when I got out of radiation and saw a message from AndrewDFS that Joe Brady had been hired by the Raiders to be head coach...at least that’s what my mind perceived it as trying to look at it while driving. But then I knew something was wrong...and I re-looked to see Brady had been hired by the Bills.
Literally...W-T-F. The most textbook use of that acronym applies here, for me.
The very first Bills interview for Joe Brady was on 1/21 for Buffalo. If he was such a special candidate, and he literally worked for you the past few years...why would you wait a week to make this move? Why would you waste Philip Rivers’ time? Why would you waste several candidate’s time? I know you have to get the ‘Rooney Rule’ candidates in, a rule that’s really everything that is wrong-thinking about the NFL or Corporate America -- a sweet notion that has absolutely backfired and has no real results...the Bills could’ve Zoom called those interviews real quick...literally ‘phoning it in’ and then hired Brady. Were the Bills hoping someone could ‘interview’ so well that it would move them off knowing/having three years spent with Brady in their employ? Can one interview change the 7-figure-paid leadership decision for a billion-dollar business? An interview? Seriously? Yep...
I saw it all the time when I worked in Corporate. I think NFL GMs (and most ‘decision makers’) love the power of people coming in to professionally grovel at their feet, so they will schedule 5-10 interviews to get the ego stroke AND it looks like they’re really being thorough at their job. And bosses are so arrogant to think that they can judge the future from a 30-60 minute ‘first date’, that they alone are the only ones who can pull the sword from the stone and make THEE greatest decision...because they are the most intuitive among the human race.
I saw a lot of people great at their job specialty or even good-to-great high-level bosses conduct a job search and do the interviews -- and they almost always made horrible choices and conducted dreadful interviews, the ones where the interviewer does all the talking. The hiring/search process was all of their achilles heel. When I designed a different approach to do my hiring, to be as much of a recruiter of talent as I was ‘picker’ of people...when I took every candidate out for a lunch for their first interview, even for the lowest level of jobs I had to hire for, so I could observe in a more natural setting, when I designed totally new questions for the interviews versus going off the given script by HR...when I did all that -- I was admonished for wasting time and money.
When I ended up having the single greatest hiring history/tree of employees in the company...one person from corporate came out to see ‘how I had such off the charts hiring success, and those people getting promoted success’...I never heard from them again and nothing was changed in the company. Why did nothing change in my corporation...because all the levels of bosses didn’t believe anything could top ‘their judgment’ from them interviewing.
So why should we think the NFL is any different or ever going to change human/boss nature? The GMs are killing NFL teams...and it’s the owner’s fault for hiring them.
Hey, the fans lap it up and don’t ask many questions, so...the wheels on the bus go round and round...
I’m not willing to give a thumbs up or down on Brady as an HC yet, because I don’t know enough about him as a leader...because I didn’t look deep yet...because I never thought he would be an NFL HC.
This Brady hiring ‘feels like’ it could be Brian Callahan 2.0 -- the young O-C ‘drafting’ off a great QB’s performances they were randomly lucky enough to be around and they get credit for making ‘it’ happen.
If I am hiring a young O-C to be an HC, I better see evidence where they took a turd QB/offense and polished it up and made a miracle happen. Where is that with Brady?
Brady’s first NFL job was him coming off the LSU ‘greatest college team ever’ with Burrow and friends and thus getting hired as O-C by new Carolina coach Matt Rhule in 2020.
2020...Carolina had the #23 offense with Teddy Bridgewater and a really good cast of WRs and CMC to start the season but then he was traded to SF.
2021...OK, don’t judge Brady totally by his first season. In his 2nd season, he gets Sam Darnold and guides him to a disaster season and the #27 ranked offense. Can you blame him for the Darnold disaster? I mean, how could anyone be expected to turn that guy around? Where’d that Darnold guy even wind up at anyway?
Oh, and Brady was so good at O-C-ing that he was fired midseason 2021.
2022...he took a step back to be QB coach for Buffalo.
(this is a real great NFL resume to this point)
2023...Ken Dorsey, one of the worst O-Cs that I’ve ever seen, was fired midseason and Brady was ‘there’ and was promoted to interim O-C then officially the O-C for 2024-2025.
The Bills led the league in scoring in 2021 (Daboll O-C) and 2022 (Dorsey)...while Brady’s three years as O-C (23-24-25) the Bills were #4-3-5 in scoring...still very good, but is the O-C really the mastermind of all this? 2024 and 2025 represent Josh Allen’s two worst yards passing per game and pass TDs per game since becoming a breakout star in 2020 (Daboll) -- the decline taking place under Brady. Allen was sacked an all-time high 40 times in 2025 (was only 14 times in 2024).
...and you can’t blame McDermott for having some negative effect because the Bills were dominant with and for Allen, statistically, in 2020 and 2021 and 2022 under two different/other O-Cs...the mild declines started happening the season Brady took over midway 2023 (but he was better than Dorsey).
Has anyone watched Bills games, watched their offense in the past three years, and thought -- wow, who is the play caller there? Mostly people have either said, ‘Wow, Josh Allen is a Superman’ or ‘What happened to Josh Allen...he used to be such a Superman?’ There’s been a lot more ‘What’s happened to Allen...?’ questions under Joe Brady.
I don’t get this hiring at all except -- this must have been what Josh Allen was good with and what GM Brandon Beane wanted...someone he could control better. Brian Daboll and Davis Webb probably would have been too adversarial/independent working with/against what’s turning out to be one of the league’s worst GMs. Daboll and Webb both knew Beane from working there prior and may have been hesitant to work with him again...not that they turned down an offer, but that they may have had things they wanted control of that Beane wasn’t yielding. Just a wondering/theory.
This looks like a ‘The Bills choose Brady!’ moment...but it might be that Daboll and Webb knew the GM/situation and tried to demand control over some things that the GM was not giving up and the Bills may have been backed into a corner and/or subverted by a terrible GM trying to retain power over his situation...which he clearly has the weak owner ‘conned’ in this dance as well.
When the Bills continue to fall short, you need look no further than this GM...who lucked into Josh Allen...and that’s hidden the GM’s decline of the roster talent levels year-after-year since Allen broke out and Daboll left.
The Buffalo Bills are rapidly turning into the ‘Canadian Cincinnati Bengals’...we have an elite QB, and we got close to the Super Bowl at their peak...but have been fading ever since.
You know what’s looking like a better and better and better hire this cycle? John Harbaugh.
The Giants have a passive, weak-willed owner (like Buffalo does), and NYG probably has the weakest personality GM in the NFL (and that’s saying something)...and Harbaugh negotiated a deal that effectively rendered the GM useless and to-be-fired/replaced next year if Harbaugh has a decent season and gets even more power. Harbaugh contractually answers to the owner now...who is a pushover. Harbaugh now runs the Giants, for better or for worse. Considering how bad every GM is in the NFL...it can’t be for the worse.
Also, the NYG GM is a disciple/friend of the BUF GM.
The best thing the weak Giants’ owner could have done is give all the power to somebody, anybody else to run things. Clearly his GM has no answers...just excuses.
Owners bond with the GMs because GMs are corporate suck ups and owners rarely ever bond with a head coach because it’s two different worlds that don’t mesh. That’s why coaches often get 1-3 years to produce/please and GMs get 5+ years all the time.
The NFL is run very poorly...but what business in America are you seeing that are getting better run, providing better service as they mature?
In other news, Shedeur Sanders is a Pro Bowl QB for this giant business entity.
-- I am going through the Day 1 practice tape of the Senior Bowl and will report out on things I saw today or tomorrow. I am hoping today, but I gotta shoot the Podfather podcast in the afternoon so we’ll see. My practice reports might be out later today...or not, but they will be out eventually.
I am taking a different approach with the Senior Bowl coverage/study this year...I’m taking the approach many coaches do -- this event, on the field scouting, is losing all of its relevance, so I’ll just check out the tape of it as I go, like the coaches and scouts mostly do...no need to stop my entire life to watch it in real time, with limited views of only ONE thing at a time, and then cram some report outs to be early to market with a lot of ‘this guy looked good’ bullet points/fawning. I want to take my time with these players/their scouting. Speed of reporting is what junior, young football writers/analysts try to do with this two-hand-touch event (and I was one of them). I’ve been around long enough now, and I’ve been physically at that event several times, to now know...’speed of reporting kills’. There’s no need to rush this.
The things I like to look at/focus on from the Senior Bowl practices...it takes time for my sources to send me good tape to watch the things I want to watch...and watch again...and rewind and focus on nuances.
I’ll let the other football writers/observers submit their ChatGPT reports immediately with ‘stock up/stock down’ posts after one day based on a good catch they saw. I will report out on things when I’m ready to...I’m not going to get trapped by my mind saying ‘you got hurry, you gotta be early and brilliant with your observations’. ‘Early’ and ‘hurried’ are the enemy of ‘brilliant’.
I have been racing against time with the Senior Bowl coverage for years...I’m not sure how it happened, it just happened...I created the narrative in my mind and just kept doing it and killing myself, schedule-wise, in the process. But, in 2026, I have been going through everything I normally do in an offseason, and the way and the timing that I do it -- and I am asking myself, ‘Why are you doing this...this way?’ and ‘Is this really a time sensitive item?’ and ‘Is this the most important spend of your time today/this week, or are their other things as/more important?’ and ‘Is this thing you’re doing still relevant?’
Honestly, I think the coaching research I’ve been doing and my preparation for my upcoming ‘The Holy Players of 2026’ series I’m doing are more important to Dynasty/Fantasy 2026. And that’s not me just working on which coach is going where type of matchmaking ‘coaching research’...no, I’m doing the most research I ever have into the assistant coaches/candidates. Who they are, what’s their tree, what’s their claim to fame/real success, what are their tendencies? The new head coaches and new coordinators have as much bearing on a player’s output as the player’s talent does. I wish it wasn’t so, but the coaches are the gatekeepers and the catalysts that can make or break (mostly break) talent...just ask Michael Wilson’s career arc.
I don’t want to be ‘first to market’ with Senior Bowl notes...and just dish out harried slop. I don’t need to be ‘first to market’, I don’t have a deadline from an employer -- I have the luxury to be ‘best to market’ and whatever time that takes, it takes. Because the Senior Bowl study/dissection was where I ‘found’ the proper appreciation and knew to really dive deep on a Michael Wilson before his draft...while everyone covering the event was falling all over Jayden Reed instead. It’s where I found the early ‘divine revelations/visions’ of David Johnson...and Nico Collins and Grey Zabel, and many others.
This is a message to ME directly, and a notice to you (my faithful supporters) -- the Senior Bowl analysis will be posted when it’s good and ready to be. The clock/calendar is not gonna be my boss in this arena. The key CTQ/‘critical to quality’ thing is not ‘hurry’.
That being said, I will share this little blip...I watched the first practice of the day, the National Team...and I have covered the Senior Bowl for like 15+ years now...and this was the sloppiest 11-on-11 practice I’m sure I’ve ever seen from Mobile. Fumbles, bad exchanges, offsides, etc. But it is ‘frickin freezing’ down there right now. I’m glad I’m not there in person...I’ve been there in the stands, among the scouts and personnel people, in blazing heat and a frozen tundra, and everything in-between. The freezing part is thee worst...those metal bleachers on 30-degree temps...not good.
== HEAD COACH HIRING BOARD ==
The latest on the HC openings, and my current guesses/predictions...
(jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):
LV = Klint Kubiak...Denver fired Sean Payton’s version of what Greg Roman was for Jim Harbaugh...Joe Lombardi is now gone, about 10 years overdue. The Broncos did that to elevate Davis Webb to O-C and Asst HC, I assume. So, no Webb here apparently.
All the Raiders have left is Kubiak...they’ve missed on everyone else.
Prediction Market favorite = Klint Kubiak 0.82
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ARI = Raheem Morris or Mike LaFleur...Anthony Campanile appears headed back to JAX, so Arizona is running out of candidates too. I think they will go defensive-minded with the choice...because only defensive coordinators can appreciate this roster...offensive coordinator types repel at this current Arizona situation.
Prediction Market favorite = Vance Joseph 0.12 (Raheem nor LaFleur are options on my Robinhood acct)
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CLE = Jim Schwartz or Nate Scheelhaase (but they want a guy like Scheelhaase or Udinski, but those guys will turn the Browns down...they’re too good of candidates to take this bottom feeder ownership/organization job. Udinski officially turned them down.)
Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job. https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2014096757257367828?s=43
Prediction Market favorite = Jim Schwartz 0.62
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-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Carolina
(other notes)
-- The Panthers aren’t in bad shape. They got some guys to pay, but also some players they can cut and save chunks of CAP space.
-- The only possible trade I see coming is them dumping Xavier Legette if they find a taker of his payroll...they’ll probably keep him just to see if a ‘turn’ comes; he’s not that expensive to take another look.
QB:
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
RB:
Rico Dowdle (free agent)
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
WR:
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Tommy Tremble ($8M pay for 2026, or cut for $2.2M hit post-June 1st)
Other:
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
1/27/26, Day 4
Yesterday was Day 2 of radiation. Went by pretty well. No major items to report. Only minor...
1) I got up at 4:15am yesterday...not because I wanted to, but because my sleep patterns are all out of whack. Took the dog out at 4:30am in the 30-degree Jacksonville weather...Noooooooo!! My first two days it was 60s low and about 80 high...shorts and t-shirt walking of the dog. Not anymore...not for like the next 2 weeks.
2) Heading back from radiation, I thought...man that Steak N Shake burger was so good yesterday...let’s do that again. The sequel is never as good as the original. I need to put some space in-between repeat visits.
I decided to have cereal for dinner as my penance, and to save money on my food budget.
A $12 lunch. A $6 coffee for a ‘reward’ for getting up at 4+am, and they made it bad...it was bad. Already ‘paid for’ dinner of cereal from my grocery run. Day 4 spend = $18
Another day under my $20 per day goal for food costs for 50 days. Two in-a-row.
Four-day total food spend = $102...$25.50 per day average...getting back on track.
Onto day three of radiation.
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1/27 TUE
(6:29amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Senior Bowl Preview Reports...Senior Bowl Week this week. I will not have all the offensive Senior Bowl prospect reports done ahead of the first practice, and that’s OK...I am taking my time with the prospects, not rushing to beat deadlines...quality over speed. We got 9 million other things as/more pressing in football going on to cover/stay up with too.
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Playoff Game Reports will be out this week.
Anything else that pops up, and any betting opportunities I might see.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
Dynasty Stash report update
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Side note: If all timings work out and I’m in good stamina shape...Wednesday 1/28, I will be reappearing on a podcast episode with The Podfather.
Not sure if it is live or recorded for later posting (later afternoon ET)...because they are working around my radiation schedule. I don’t ask questions; I just show up when asked.
-- Another side note: I am also posting any published reports of note onto Twitter/X, as well as using our App notifications like normal...just an FYI if you want to follow FFM on Twitter to get report post notices that way.
Just trying to make notifications easier/more universal. Not doing it for ‘follows’, I don’t even look at our Twitter/X and I don’t allow comments on our notifications so I don’t see the cesspool of social media critics...it’s just a stable/universal notification system most people use on their phones that we can utilize for free.
I’m also working on a big-time/improved option for ALL notifications that I think you’ll like. We should be running trials of it early February, for February implementation for everyone to use if they wish. No cost or anything...just an improved option in every way.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss reports the price for Kyler Murray in trade “starts with a third-round pick.”
Furthermore: “That source compared Murray’s situation with Geno Smith’s when he was traded from Seattle to Las Vegas last March for a third-round pick.
It’s not 2024 or the 10+ years prior. The desperation by teams for QBs is dwindling...most every team has at least one. And the teams that don’t are ready to draft them or sign a veteran or lure Hall of Famers out of retirement.
What team is looking for a giant payroll, immature QB to lead their team? I know Cleveland and the Jets are dupes...but hold on a second. Why would any team be interested in trading Arizona for Kyler, if Arizona (also a dupe team) doesn’t want him? Has no one learned from the Carson Wentz chronicles of a few years ago? Arizona needs a QB, and they don’t even want him...in fact they now hate him so much they are gonna take a payroll bath to get rid of him.
And this source comparing Kyler to Geno Smith isn’t a logical thing, but it proves the point of what a waste of a move that Geno trade was. The Raiders traded for Geno last offseason, and it went so well they are literally picking #1 in this year’s draft and taking a QB. But Geno Smith had the heart of Pete Carroll, and given the stupidity of the Brady-led ‘management team’...so, Pete got what he wanted (then got what he deserved after Week 18 finished). Who is Kyler tied to...who is making a big move for him? Is Kliff Kingsbury getting a head coaching job I don’t know about?
Kyler is getting outright cut or traded for like a day three pick with Arizona footing the bill for much payroll.
Who even needs a QB right now?
Miami...Kyler not likely a Jeff Hafley player. Malik Willis is a very likely signing there.
The Jets...Aaron Glenn would have zero interest in a disinterested, non-hard working/studying player like Kyler.
Cleveland...hell, they already have a 2025 Pro Bowl QB as it is! (I‘ll get to that sometime this week).
Las Vegas...they have Geno...and the #1 pick.
Minnesota...not Kyler. They’d stick with JJM before that.
No NFC team even needs a QB...besides...Arizona. Maybe they go with Brissett, maybe they don’t. What head coach prospect wants the Cardinals job with Brissett at QB as their big lure to hire them?
There’s nowhere for Kyler to go...but to...Arizona.
And all those potential QB job openings we mentioned...there is Flacco, Mac Jones, Jameis, Willis, among other options.
Here’s a clip of the Cardinals GM telling Kyler they are trading or cutting him, and his reaction: https://youtube.com/shorts/i8Kr1BVlnnA?si=9d0LnHRnAtMG6v_R
Maybe that baseball dream is still alive for Kyler?
--HEADLINE: Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has removed his name from the Eagles’ offensive-coordinator search.
I wondered why he was even bothering with other O-C jobs. Just stick with Ben Johnson, and everything will be fine for jobs down the road.
No one wants the Cleveland head coaching job, nor the Arizona head coaching job, and apparently not the Eagles offensive coordinator job either.
== HEAD COACH HIRING BOARD ==
The latest on the HC openings, and my current guesses/predictions...
(jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):
BUF = Brian Daboll or Davis Webb...I’ve already written a lot on this already. I can add something new today: the Grant Udinski Twitter love racing him to the leader of the social media army predictions now...it’s a bored fan’s hope/fantasy...’we want something new! And we don’t know who or what a Davis Webb is...our overlords in NFL media haven’t spoon-fed us info to fawn over this Webb guy yet’. Well, I’ve been talking about Webb as an HC happening in 2026 for what?...2 weeks now?
Prediction Market favorite = Grant Udinski .45 (was .64 at a peak MON)
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LV = Davis Webb or Klint Kubiak...if Webb doesn’t get this, he might be the Bills new O-C and Ass’t Coach in training...maybe.
Vegas is running out of options and Tom Brady keeps broadcasting Seattle games/Kubiak.
The fact that Udinski isn’t even interviewing here or with Arizona, shows he has NO real hiring heat.
Prediction Market favorite = Klint Kubiak 0.44
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ARI = Raheem Morris/Vance Joseph or Anthony Campanile...young coaches are reluctant to go to take on McVay-Shanahan-Macdonald. You’ll know that’s true if Arizona is forced to go with a retread…or young guy no one else is giving big attention too.
And I think they will go defensive-minded...because only defensive coordinators can appreciate this roster...offensive coordinator types repel at this current Arizona situation.
Prediction Market favorite = Anthony Campanile 0.23
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CLE = Jim Schwartz or Nate Scheelhaase (but they want a guy like Scheelhaase or Udinski, but those guys will turn the Browns down...they’re too good of candidates to take this bottom feeder ownership/organization job. Udinski officially turned them down.)
Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job. https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2014096757257367828?s=43
Prediction Market favorite = Jim Schwartz 0.62
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-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Buffalo
(other notes)
-- The Bills salary cap for 2026 isn’t looking great right now, but I assume the GM will now gut the roster of the ‘McDermott guys’ and most of those are defensive players. The new HC and D-C can rebuild a lot of this defense in their image quickly.
-- I’m looking at their Josh Palmer deal and just shaking my head...they gave him 2-years/$18M. This GM has blood on his hands for this missed opportunity mess of the past few years too.
-- Only Curtis Samuel is added to the list below.
QB:
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
RB:
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
WR:
Curtis Samuel ($8M pay for 2026, cut for $3.5M)
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Other:
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
1/27/26, Day 3
Alright, I had my first radiation treatment yesterday. I’m going to give two analyses of the day/things that stuck out to me the most...
(1) I totally lucked out with the place I found to stay short-term in J-Ville. Easy access to the main roads to get straight to the hospital (MD Anderson) downtown.
And I totally lucked out by luckily getting a recommendation to apply to MD Anderson (MDA) as my care choice. When I got to MDA, it was 10:00am, and the place was calm, serene, no fighting for parking spots...no mass of humanity waiting in line or overcrowding the waiting rooms or check in areas...plenty of employees to take care of everyone, whereas most hospitals I have been to feel like they are squeezing the $$ for efficiency with staff -- MDA is overstaffed by comparison, and I mean that in the best way I could say that. Every employee seems happy to be there. Everyone is smiling and asking how they can help.
My message to you, if you get cancer and if you are able to...go to MD Anderson or (probably) any of the other top/elite hospitals that specialize in JUST cancer. Even if you have extra cost to do so...try to find a way. This is a serious thing...you want the best. Likely, when I am done here...I will donate money to MDA on a regular basis. I’ll probably up my St. Jude giving as well.
You have no idea what a godsend these places are for people in minor and major crises. They have free housing/apartment like options for 1-2 weeks or more for people who need/want it at MDA. St. Jude’s...no one gets a bill for things, so I understand it. I didn’t understand the beauty of that until I got into this unwanted battle...and I have it way better than most everyone I see here.
So, I got checked in and I only have one requirement ahead of time...for the 45+ minutes beforehand radiation -- drink 24oz of water...AND HOLD IT. They need you to have a full bladder because that bloated organ then pushes things out and makes my specific radiation maneuvers easier for the robots/doctors...they are VERY serious about your water levels prior to treatment. Water is my natural enemy...can’t stand it...but I gotta do what I gotta do.
I went into the radiation room which, the best way I can describe it, was like I was captured by aliens and taken to their exam room and laid on a table and then this giant open air machine with like five high tech ‘tentacles’ (the radiation lasers) moves around me like a technologically advanced symphony, so quiet, so smooth, able to go into various angles, all swirling around me. My very tough job during this is = ‘lay still’.
So, 20+ minutes of lying still later, it was over. Now, I was allowed to go deal with all that water. So, I did...then off to the parking deck...no swarming traffic aggressively wanting my spot, I easily pulled out of my spot and got on the highway headed for (new)home.
(2) So, they told me of the possible side effects from radiation...things that would/could probably happen in a few weeks as the radiation built/wore on over time. As I left the hospital, I felt totally normal. As I approached the hotel...around noonET, I started yawning. OK, let’s take a nap. I only slept 5 hours overnight because of hot flashes, among other things, disrupting my sleep...so a midday nap was definitely in order.
I was gonna work for a few, then lie down...was my plan as I pulled into the hotel. By the time I got to my room, I was like...sorry (my)dog, I gotta lay down...3 hours later of solid uninterrupted deep sleep later (rare)...I woke up in a stupor like I’d been run over by a truck, but in a kinda good way. I didn’t know where I was or what time it was for like 2-3 minutes before I ‘came to’. I was fine the rest of the night but definitely felt ‘off’/not 100%. If this is day one of this for fatigue, and they warned me that fatigue wouldn’t probably hit until Week 3...now I am worried what Week 3 will really be like. But hopefully my body adjusts/adapts quickly, but my defenses are down from the hormone therapies.
So much going on...the war for my ‘self’ is underway.
On to more serious matters, like my food choices and spending budget for Day 3. Yesterday/after Day 2, I was already over budget...but blame an initial grocery supply run throwing things off for a bit. My two-day tally was $72...$36.0 per day...trying to stay in a $1K spend for two months, about $20 a day with all my gift cards and other gits family gave to me for the holidays, etc.
So, I was driving home from the hospital when one of the first warned side effects popped up...maybe. How do I say this in case you’re eating while reading, it won’t be too bad...but I started to realize that I had more of my guzzled 24oz of water to get rid of. I thought I did at the hospital, but suddenly I had a small urge...then one of the other warned of side effects a minute later -- a major urgent urge, I was getting off the next exit manically.
Just so happens that exit had a restaurant I hadn’t been to in years...one I used to like OK = Steak N Shake. So, I decided I would go there and also get some lunch. How convenient! I don’t know if it was the radiation or what, but that was arguably the best burger I have had in a long time. So dang good. Good service, great food...had the option to pay in Bitcoin but I went old fashioned with just a regular old credit card. Nice job Steak N Shake. I heard they were improving all facets...and a big ‘thumbs up’ from me...and a possible next visit after treatment today.
A $12 lunch. No coffee at all for the day. FREE dinner...using points at Chipotle for a chicken bowl...and that was great too. Does radiation make your taste buds get warped into everything tastes amazing? Day 3 spend = $12
Three-day total food spend = $84...$28.0 per day average...getting back on track.
I typed this when I woke up this morning...at 4:15amET...after 5 hours of sleep. Man, is this gonna be a trying day/week/2 months.
Onto day two of radiation.
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1/26 MON
(7:19amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Senior Bowl Preview Reports...Senior Bowl week this week.
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Anything else that pops up, and any betting opportunities I might see.
My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.
-- ALERT: New hire coaching scouting from me...
We’ve got a ton of coaching changes happening and still to come, obviously, and I’m making some quick reaction/commentary on them along the way as it ‘strikes me’ to...but I just wanted make note -- I will be going very in-depth on the new coaching hires AND (as importantly) their staffs and reporting out on it all probably in later February and into March.
These reports are gonna be an all new (for me) format, a very in-depth look at these coaches/coaching staffs and projections on their impact on the FF players.
We can’t just ‘kinda study’ the head coaches anymore...we have to dissect and dismantle them and their entire staff. It will be a huge undertaking, because I think in this new era it needs to be. I just wanted to put that out there as an FYI.
== SUNDAY FINAL FOUR GAMES, FIRST REACTIONS ==
NE-DEN
-- From (3-14) and the #2 pick in the draft, that they trade away to drop down...new coach/staff, great free agent session...and now onto the Super Bowl for the Patriots. https://x.com/sleeperhq/status/2015567380848452000?s=43
-- The outcome might have been different if Bo Nix played...might have been different even without Nix if there was not a blizzard after halftime...might have been different if Sean Payton kicks a FG to go up 10-0 early...might have been different if the refs got the call right on a Drake Maye 4th & 1 stuffed, but they let him squirm for an extra minute...then the refs hurried to get the next playoff without even a measurement...then the red flag...then we see Maye stuffed from a camera shot above...then New York doesn’t reverse it.
All games are 50/50 in these playoffs...and outcomes have/had nothing to do with the teams/rosters/matchups.
-- When it mattered, Drake Maye made the plays needed to win...mostly with his feet...he is now the Josh Allen of the NFL.
https://x.com/anthonydabbundo/status/2015562605423686110?s=43
-- Sean Payton coached some of the worst football, made the worst decisions throughout the season...and it finally caught up to him.
https://x.com/panasonicdx4500/status/2015559243013771313?s=43
https://x.com/ihartitz/status/2015525041983602716?s=43
https://x.com/notthefakednp/status/2015534184014496191?s=43
LAR-SEA
-- Another 50/50 game...both playoff games this weekend were coin flip games determined by things that had nothing to prove which teams were better. New England and Seattle are very good teams and deserve to be here...but it so easily could’ve been Bills, Broncos, Rams, Texans, Bears, or Packers here. Not so sure the Panthers couldn’t have gotten on a roll to get to the finals either, with a little luck.
The only team, looking back on it, that had little-to-no chance to get to the Super Bowl, even with some luck, was the Chargers...because of the state of the O-Line.
And that’s a wild statement considering that I also think a healthy Chargers O-Line would have made the LAC the Super Bowl favorite/best team in the NFL.
https://x.com/doug_clawson/status/2015623331546882267?s=43
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2015619277944930733?s=43
-- We have a memory of Kenneth Walker dominating in this game...and he looked great on that first drive...but he ended up with his typical 2025 Seahawks game = 19 carries for 61 yards and a measly 3.3 yards per carry...but the memory will be (mostly from the first drive) = Walker is a god, I hope my team signs him in free agency.
The best, most talented RB in this game isn’t even a starter...Blake Corum.
-- Sam Darnold is going to the Super Bowl...Vikings and Jets fans are crying about it. But why?
(1) You didn’t/don’t have the coaching or ownership/management or infrastructure to be where Seattle is at. No more ‘you can’t criticize Kevin O’Connell’...you can. It’s a big deal now/in retrospect that he chose JJM over Darnold/Dan Jones...and you have to get a load of that GM’s awful drafts since he took over...and also notice the coaching staff turmoil that has happened in Minnesota this past few weeks.
Vikings fans...you have bigger issues than just 'we should've kept Darnold!' If you think Seattle is now the best/holy franchise to aspire to because they are progressing in a coin flip tournament...you're missing the mark...the NFL reality is passing you by while you're stuck in the 2000s-2024. It's entirely possible the three best teams, truly, in the NFL in 2025 are: A healthy Chargers team/O-Line, the Daniel Jones-led Colts (how good were they, and we all just 'forget'), and the Chicago Bears not losing their linebackers and secondary on-and-off all season, and then losing their key linebacker/team leader and starting OL (Trapilo) in the Packers game/before the Rams game. Teams/fans should be aspiring to those 2025 teams as well as Seattle and New England, but nope...we're all just gonna fawn exclusively over the Super Bowl combatants because that's what we're trained to do.
https://x.com/kalebnfl/status/2015637236683866298?s=43
https://x.com/_mnmuse/status/2015619415887220948?s=43
(2) The public is gonna take years to realize a truth right now, spawned from the 2025 season...the QB position/importance has changed rapidly to ‘not that important, as long as you have a competent one’. We came very close to seeing Stidham beat Maye and we did see Darnold defeat Stafford, despite insane numbers by Stafford.
-- I joked after Rashid Shaheed opened the game with that 51-yard catch...well, there’s his one target/catch for the game. Shaheed ended the game with one catch for 51 yards.
-- This Seattle win is not helping Klint Kubiak exercise real leverage over the coaching market.
-- The way the Rams were planned/schemed/coached this past 5 weeks, since the Seattle Week 16 debacle, I don’t see any reason to rush out and hire all the spawns of McVay over the other legit young coaches: Udinski, Webb, Kubiak.
Warren Sharp has been on this for weeks too: https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2015592914823352688?s=43
Other weird notes on the Rams loss:
https://x.com/sarahbarshop/status/2015643237932052904?s=43
https://x.com/shootermcgavin/status/2015620922082799983?s=43
https://x.com/schultz_report/status/2015629668167393618?s=43
https://x.com/bgrisaktst/status/2015623770682085404?s=43
https://x.com/camdasilva/status/2015623865167131009?s=43
Wrapping up the weekend...
https://x.com/billshanks/status/2015620262771720389?s=43
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- The 49ers are taking a beating on social media from this weekend’s events...
https://x.com/jnay_lss/status/2015622781447123225?s=43
https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2015588487836442697?s=43
https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2015467782494707751?s=43
https://x.com/chase_senior/status/2015641732008853942?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Giants hired former Titans DC Dennard Wilson to the same position.
I mentioned him as a LAC potential, but I forgot he had stronger ties to John Harbaugh...but Mike McDaniel has stronger ties to Shanahan/Saleh and went with the LAC situation.
I’m glad Wilson is getting a chance to erase the Titans years from his memory banks.
-- Pitch Perfect from SNL or the NFL: https://youtu.be/daXHsQYQbjc?si=1sIOQz_bB85wDMmA
== HEAD COACH HIRING BOARD ==
The latest on the HC openings, and my current guesses/predictions...
(jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):
BUF = Brian Daboll...this is making more and more sense to me. It won’t be a young guy, unless Davis Webb. If it’s a retread...it has to be Daboll. Josh Allen is making this decision.
Prediction Market favorite = Brian Daboll 0.37
-----------------------------------------------------------
LV = Davis Webb or Klint Kubiak...if Webb doesn’t get this, he might be the Bills new O-C and Asst Coach in training...maybe.
Vegas is running out of options Tom Brady keeps broadcasting Seattle games/Kubiak.
Prediction Market favorite = Klint Kubiak 0.68
-----------------------------------------------------------
ARI = Klint Kubiak or Grant Udinski...young coaches are reluctant to go take on McVay-Shanahan-Macdonald. You’ll know that’s true if Arizona is forced to go with a retread.
Prediction Market favorite = Anthony Campanile 0.35
-----------------------------------------------------------
CLE = Jim Schwartz (but they want a guy like Scheelhaase or Udinski, but those guys will turn the Browns down...they’re too good of candidates to take this bottom feeder ownership/organization job...but maybe they throw enough money at Udinski...).
Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job. https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2014096757257367828?s=43
Prediction Market favorite = Nate Scheelhaase 0.54
-----------------------------------------------------------
-- Dynasty Owners...
Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare
AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.
I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.
BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.
-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...
(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.
We’re looking at players who...
*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.
*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.
*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.
We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...
(intro end)
---------------------------------
Today’s look: Baltimore
(other notes)
-- A collection of OK and terrible contracts that they really can’t get out of smoothly this year...and the contracts explode on them in 2027 and 2028. This team is hurdling to a disaster. When you’re next 2-3 years money is tied up in Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman...and Derrick Henry’s deal exposed (GUAR) in 2027-2028.
They need to maneuver some of these deals, re-do them to be in a position to rid themselves of overpaid junk.
John Harbaugh knew what he was doing getting out of this situation.
QB:
Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)
Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)
RB:
James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)
Justice Hill (3.9M keep for 1-yr or cut for $667k)...enjoy New York.
WR:
TE:
Kyle Pitts (free agent)
Isaiah Likely (free agent)
Other:
========================
-- RC Daily JAX Diary...
(same intro every day)
At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.
I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF
(end of intro)
1/25/26, Day 2
Writing this on Sunday, tomorrow (today) is day one of my radiation treatments. I’m going to the hospital very early to get a feel for the drive, check in early and take care of any initial paperwork things that tend to crop up.
Sunday is/was a busy day to try to get stuff done before the playoff games. Did a little grocery shopping, then did a bunch of work and then a nap before the playoff games. The only real money I had riding was early year bets on the Rams to go to the Super Bowl, so that money got right up to the finish line and then got slapped away. Every gained dollar is going to a good cause -- all my health care costs with the new year, deductible begins anew with the new calendar year, everything costs me now. Soon it won’t. I’ll be at my deductible pretty quickly!
My wife asked me if I was ‘ready’ for the big day (radiation start). I kinda haven’t been thinking about it in my solitary confinement at the hotel...too busy trying to get a feel for things in my ‘new home’. I wonder if it will hit me as I drive there this morning...or when I walk in the hospital main door.
Will the feeling hit me that -- this is the next kill shot...a major kill shot. When I walk in the door to the hospital and get on the bed for the robot guided radiating -- that doctor is gonna be like the old Mariano Rivera game entry, or whatever baseball closer you like, coming into finish off the big lead we have through my successful therapies reaction so far...or he could blow the save...or he get the save but I take on some internal damage and having lasting ramifications I don’t want to think about...BUT, the goal is to win the game, no matter what else happens.
Today is the start of radiation...the potential ‘beginning of the end’.
My vision of my entry into the hospital is this with all the people who have prayed for me and wished well for me as the people in the stands as I enter the facility...
https://youtu.be/kjcwXPyKQ58?si=OZ9hTLByIQMRI1Rh&t=29
Wish me luck, throw me a prayer today!
The food budget went off the rails Sunday, two days in, but I got an excuse...had to get some initial groceries. I’m trying to stay around $20 per day over 50 days...$1k gifted in gift cards and cash by family members, Christmas presents, etc., for this event.
I spent $26 day one.
Day 2...grocery store trip for $29 to start the day. Coffee for $6. Wendy’s Baconator for dinner (at 2:30 to get it in before the game), plus fry was $11. My two-day tally is $72...$36.0 per day. I’m gonna need a cheap day to swing the numbers back my way...or I need the Bills to hire Brian Daboll as HC to get a nice payout on those bets for some cushion.
I will absolutely not cook for myself. That’s a side goal of all this. I hate cooking, and the whole process leading up to it.
Man, Wendy’s is really going downhill. Haven’t been there in a while. Not great. No workers. Mediocre food now.
