There’s a lot to talk about from this game, after this game… But for the game itself recap: The Texans defense killed the Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s the game recap. End o’ story.
That’s the way we all remember this game, but when I went back over this game...seeing that the score was only 7-6 Houston going into the fourth quarter was a shock I forgot about. For as dominant as the Texans defense was, for as pathetic as the Steelers offense was and for as erratic as the Texans offense was -- the Steelers were still very much in this game going to the fourth quarter. And then the Texans really ratcheted it up and scored 23 unanswered points in the final quarter for a blowout victory.
The Houston 4th-quarter domination caused Aaron Rodgers to retire and lost Mike Tomlin his current employment...I’m sure that guy (Tomlin) will land on his feet. We’ll talk about it in a second.
Houston is moving on to a Patriots matchup that on paper the Texans should lose. New England has huge advantages on an offensive line comparison, and NE a huge advantage at quarterback, and the Pats with the big edge with the coaching staff. However, the one wild card…the ace in the hole that the Texans bring to the party is that elite NFL defense that can literally carry a team to the Super Bowl. I think the Patriots will win this game, but I would not be shocked if Houston found a way via a defense to pull it out.
The final eight teams left in this tournament can all go to the Super Bowl...they are separated by injuries and weird referee penalty calls. Which makes it a lot of fun for the viewers.
Player notes…
-- Have we seen the last of Aaron Rodgers (17-33 for 250 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)? I kind of hope so. It’s time to let the next generation take over. Aaron Rodgers has to be tired from two years of basically coaching and coordinating an entire offense head coach for bad teams while the dud offensive coordinator just kind of stood by and watched.
Rodgers should retire, but I have a funny feeling that we haven’t seen the last of him on a football field. Even if he does retire, he is but one Indianapolis Colts quarterback injury/phone call away…
-- Not that it matters, but I think Mike Tomlin was kinda forced out of Pittsburgh...by the entirety of Pittsburgh -- the fans, the bad roster, probably an unhappy GM and Owner. Tomlin probably wanted to take a break and then come back to what John Harbaugh is trying to be do...a highway robbery of NFL franchises with huge contract demands and huge staffing budget demands. Tomlin will probably be given a hero’s welcome when he’s hired by the Jets or whomever in the future. Smart move for Tomlin whether he was the driving force of resigning or not.
It was especially smart because that Steelers roster that’s left behind is a total disaster. DK Metcalf (2-52-0/5) is the only player, who played in this game, that is sure to be on the Steelers roster going into free agency.
FF player ramifications of the Steelers off-season include…
Free agent Kenny Gainwell (6-20-0, 4-26-0;/6) is sure to leave for a nice little deal somewhere to be a satellite back...a new contract that he owes Aaron Rodgers a lot of money for making it possible. We all appreciated Gainwell for PPR down the stretch but if you decouple him from Rodgers, I don’t think you’re getting the same player/PPR 2026.
Without Mike Tomlin, Jalen Warren (12-43-0, 1-4-0/1) is likely cut for CAP reasons and moves on to be a journeyman RB.
Pat Freiermuth (1-18-0/3) may not be cut for salary purposes as well. I have a feeling he stays because the Steelers don’t have any other players left and the fans like to yell ‘MUUUUTH’ way too much. You gots to give the people what they want. You gotta distract them from the utter collapse about to take place.
Assuming Arthur Smith is gonna be out the door soon Jonnu Smith (2-0-0/3) will be cut.
The new coach may smartly shift to a Darnell Washington centered TE group.
Calvin Austin (3-8-0/6) is definitely leaving this disaster in free agency.
All of this portends well for Roman Wilson, who may be the Steelers best wide receiver this very second, and yet he can’t even get active because Arthur Smith is an offensive genius…
I wouldn't be surprised if Roman Wilson is the Parker Washington/2025 Jags WR surprise for the Steelers in 2026.
-- On the Houston side…man, does C.J. Stroud (21-32 for 250 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) not look good. Five fumbles...FIVE, in the game...two of them lost. He’ll throw a decent pass one play then throw right into obvious coverage the next. If the Texans get throttled by the Patriots, no doubt it’s gonna be Stroud to blame.
I want nothing to do with Stroud for FF or Dynasty now...or for the future. Limited coaching, Stroud’s issues...none of it is good.
https://x.com/nflhatememes/status/2010939467066978748?s=43
-- ...and that includes a proclamation that I don’t want anything to FF-do with Stroud’s receivers either.
Nico Collins is great (3-21-0/7), but for his already established high value...I’ll pass and work with other top WRs. I just don’t want to be FF-connected with this constant disaster Houston offense...bad O-Line and seemingly no good O-Cs.
I’m not gonna hold onto Jayden Higgins (3-39-0/4) and Jaylen Noel (0-0-0/1) for years waiting for a magical complete reversal/fix of the Houston offense and Stroud. If it happens...it is likely happening without me.
-- Woody Marks (19-112-1/20) had 100+ yards rushing here, so everyone is all FF in love with him. I would be a seller, and would’ve been for weeks, of Marks in Dynasty ASAP. And no way I am pursuing him as some sleeper or upside talent...because he isn’t one.
And it’s not because I’m afraid of Joe Mixon...I don’t even know if that guy will play again, and even if he does...if it’s for this Houston offense -- why would I want to wait/hold Mixon for this...for what? There’s a million other RBs to work with that are cleaner than Mixon, and just as hopeful.
BONUS GAME ANALYSIS from Pittsburgh Dad: https://youtu.be/B-klujjMIFg?si=a_3X9HtUOP5k1tbL
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Metcalf
35 = C Austin
33 = MVS
17 = Thielen
32 = Gainwell
26 = J Warren
48 = Marks
20 = Chubb
54 = Schultz
45 = Hutchinson
38 = Collins
38 = C Kirk
36 = Stover
31 = J Higgins
06 = Noel
What GEMINI/the Hivemind said about this game...
The Houston Texans made franchise history on Monday night, Jan. 12, 2026, securing their first-ever road playoff victory with a dominant 30-6 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. In a game that was a narrow 7-6 defensive struggle heading into the fourth quarter, DeMeco Ryans’ "S.W.A.R.M." defense completely took over. Will Anderson Jr. and Sheldon Rankins combined for a strip-sack scoop-and-score that broke the game open, followed by a Calen Bullock pick-six off a struggling Aaron Rodgers to seal the rout.
While C.J. Stroud battled through a career-high five fumbles (two lost), the Texans' offense found life through rookie sensation Woody Marks, who became the first rookie since 2021 to rush for over 100 yards in a playoff game. Pittsburgh’s offense was held to a dismal 175 total yards, converting only 2 of 14 third downs. The loss marks the Steelers' eighth consecutive postseason exit without a win, immediately followed by the news that Mike Tomlin is stepping down after 19 seasons. As Pittsburgh heads into a massive offseason of uncertainty, Houston advances to face the New England Patriots.
Top 10 Dynasty / Fantasy / IDP Takeaways
- Woody Marks (RB, HOU) – The New Bellcow: Marks has officially arrived. His 112-yard playoff performance cements him as a high-end dynasty RB1. He has completely overtaken the Houston backfield.
- Will Anderson Jr. (DE, HOU) – IDP 1.01: Anderson is no longer just a "promising" pass rusher; he is a game-wrecker. He is the top overall defensive lineman in IDP dynasty rankings following this postseason takeover.
- Mike Tomlin & Aaron Rodgers – End of an Era: With Tomlin stepping down and Rodgers hitting free agency (or retirement), the Steelers are the #1 "Avoid" team in fantasy until we see the new coaching regime and QB.
- DK Metcalf (WR, PIT) – Elite Talent, Zero Ceiling: Metcalf is a WR1 trapped in a QB-less void. With Tomlin gone and no QB on the roster, his dynasty value is at an all-time low—making him a risky "buy low" if you believe in the new regime.
RC NOTE = Elite talent?
5. Christian Kirk (WR, HOU) – The Safety Valve: With Nico Collins dealing with a concussion, Kirk’s 144-yard game proves he is the engine of the passing game. He is a high-end WR2 in PPR formats for 2026.
6. Calen Bullock (S, HOU) – Playmaker Status: The rookie safety has elite range. His 50-yard pick-six highlights a growing IDP floor that makes him a must-start in DB-required leagues.
7. C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) – Volatility Check: Five fumbles in a playoff game is a major red flag for his 2026 consistency. He remains a top-5 dynasty QB, but his "elite" tier status is being tested by ball-security issues.
RC NOTE = Elite tier status?
8. T.J. Watt (LB/DE, PIT) – Still the King: Despite the loss, Watt was the only Steeler who showed up. He remains the gold standard for IDP, though his "win-now" window is closing as Pittsburgh enters a rebuild.
9. Jalen Ramsey (CB, PIT) – IDP Decline: Ramsey was picked on by Stroud and Kirk all night. In IDP leagues, his name value still outweighs his production; he is a prime "sell" this offseason.
10. Steelers RBs (Gainwell/Warren) – Avoid: With the offense in total flux and a new coaching staff coming in, this backfield is a fantasy "dead zone" until a clear lead back is established in the 2026 Draft.
