Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
12/9 TUE
(5:45amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 15 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Report/s today...as many as we can get out.
News & Notes throughout the day.
MNF Week 14: PHI at LAC first reactions...
-- My first thought is...listening to sports talk radio in Philadelphia today is gonna be quite something. The hate/vitriol/frustration is going to boil over today.
-- Jalen Hurts had 4 INTs...and he was already a strong contender for ‘blamed the most’ in the current Philly slide...and being the QB puts you in that spot, like it or not, so he’s gonna really get it today. Already being scrutinized, the team losing, and then having a bad game on a solo night game...MNF being the worst place to do that...it’s gonna be a nightmare for Hurts this week/rest of season. https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1998214591445368835?s=43
Hurts needs to like win back-to-back games with major outputs to stop this bleeding. The bleeding can be stopped: https://x.com/thechiefnerd/status/1997998846241087588?s=43
Ladies and Gentleman, your reigning, defending Super Bowl champ MVP...now will have this week (at a minimum) where everything is gonna be about how to trade him or replace him. https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/1998213920977469759?s=43
-- Plugging in this game result and projecting ahead...the final playoff spot in the AFC is going to be won/lost this week with the result of the LAC at KC. The winner is all but in, especially if LAC wins. The loser is out of the playoffs. It’s that simple.
The Eagles still win the NFC East, but it is very precarious. Dallas can still win it but needs help from like a Washington to somehow beat Philly one of the 2 times they play each other from here. Dallas has a chance to pull this off but can’t afford a slip up...but Philly has to stop this bleeding. The strength of schedule says the Eagles ‘got this’: https://x.com/rjochoa/status/1998253638838558918?s=43
But... https://x.com/kevinnegandhi/status/1998254672604492207?s=43
-- Justin Herbert got sacked 7 times...LAC had the advantage of 5 Philly turnovers...it wasn’t a banner game by LAC either, they still needed a great play at the end of OT...a pick at the goal line to save this game for them.
-- MOST IMPORTANTLY...I am getting peppered with messages from FF teams who got a miracle win due to the dreadful Hurts FF scoring, and/or because people sat Herbert/Gadsden and even Ladd for this week...but mainly a lot of the shock come-from-behind FF-wins had Cam Dicker’s 5/5 FGs putting the exclamation point on it. There’s a few+ low probability-to-win FF teams entering the game last night who pulled it out and are headed to the playoffs.
Honestly, we love to hate-watch football and hate-play Fantasy...but all these Week 14 wins to launch people into the playoffs after such a rough start to this season -- there’s not too many other cheap thrill rides like the NFL and FF sometimes in this crazy, intense ‘real world’.
Thank you to Fantasy for giving all of us a great distraction...to have a constant jigsaw puzzle/Escape Room to figure out every day for like 5-6+ months out of the year. Even if you were on the losing end of the Hurts meltdown or got Dickered by the LAC kicker...it’s an engaging thrill ride, an emotional roller coaster game to play.
A poetic way to end this section: https://x.com/austinabbott/status/1998193106215186589?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Bengals coach Zac Taylor said Tee Higgins is back in concussion protocol.
Tee banged his head around a couple of times, again, on Sunday...and he’s coming off a concussion that had him miss the Thanksgiving game. This is likely to go all the way to Friday before we find out if he clears...but there’s real concern here that it might be more than one game: https://x.com/thefantasypt/status/1998128378814287950?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Chiefs OT Wanya Morris suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 14’s loss to the Texans.
The Chiefs are really falling apart...a battered O-Line, 2-3 starters on the O-Line are hurt...they are in trouble. Facing the other big-time hurt O-Line Chargers Week 15 for a virtual playoff game between LAC-KC for the #7 seed in the end.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Colts will bring in QB Philip Rivers for a workout Tuesday.
-- HEADLINE: Colts coach Shane Steichen said “the hope” is that Riley Leonard (knee) will play against the Seahawks.
It’s a workout for Rivers...not a reality (yet)...but if Riley Leonard is more hurt/possibly missing this week -- the Colts are super-desperate for a QB. Brett Rypien could start Week 15...but then they have no QB behind him for an emergency (if Leonard is hurt).
I’m going to guess that they sign a QB off the practice squad of some team Tuesday. They would get Sam Ehlinger off Denver if they could, as a guess...unless they burned a bridge with Ehlinger when he was there last. https://x.com/kelbermannfl/status/1998184743154639171?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Broncos coach Sean Payton said the Broncos have “got to continue to find more touches for” Marvin Mims “on the offensive side of the ball and we’ll do that.”
I know what you’re trying to do Sean Payton, you sneaky Pete...this is Lucy ‘pulling the ball away’ again and again on Charlie Brown. You’re not going to fool me again: https://youtu.be/mZkJAx8FycI?si=dGWwe-j3IZ94Fzgn
-- PK Scoring Trends...
The kickers are starting to settle into the ‘cream rising to the top’ (you’ll see the same names in the different time period trends a lot now)...and one kicker is a surprise the past 5-10 weeks.
Top 5 PKs Weeks 1-14
12.2 = Myers
11.3 = Fairbairn
11.1 = Aubrey
10.8 = Dicker
10.4 = Pineiro
Top 5 PKs Weeks 5-14
12.4 = Fairbairn
12.2 = Myers
11.9 = Dicker
10.8 = McPherson
10.7 = Pineiro
Top 5 PKs Weeks 9-14
14.2 = Myers
12.4 = Dicker
11.8 = McPherson
11.8 = Fairbairn
11.2 = Aubrey
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
*I go in alphabetical order, but mistakenly skipped over ‘Cleveland’...the three Browns QBs are here now.*
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith
Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders, J.J. McCarthy (the 3 QBs listed after him...all bombed in their starting season), Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray
Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins
-------------------
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12/8 MON
(5:51amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Week 14 TNF report will post Monday midday.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...
Daniel Jones = Achilles tear, done for the season. Riley Leonard joins Sauce Gardner to try to hang onto the playoffs (and it’s likely they will fall out of the race, as we projected they would...even with DJ). https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1997758088708071508?s=43
This would not surprise me if Cincy loses one-more-game and is out of the playoffs: https://x.com/jmthrivept/status/1997829135390138864?s=43
Jayden Daniels = Re-injury to his arm, but not dire...could come back this week but if he’s not shut down for the season, government officials should raid the Commanders management offices and Navy Seals should extract JD from the team.
Zach Ertz = ACL...career-ending, most-likely.
Tyrod Taylor = Groin strain out for a week+ likely.
De’Von Achane = Rib injury...could’ve returned but was held out because the game was at hand.
Nick Chubb = Rib injury...could be a fracture.
Keaton Mitchell = Knee injury...unknown severity.
David Njoku = Reaggravated a knee injury, unknown for this week.
Darnell Washington = Concussion...unknown for Week 15.
Geno Smith = Shoulder...hopeful for Week 15, but unknown...and ‘why’ push him back?
== News & Tweets Items ==
-- Thank you to Michael Wilson, my most FF savior player of the 2025 season. Thank you from all the do-or-die Week 14 teams you gave wins too. https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1997820979524067556?s=46
https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1997830307177996590?s=43
https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/1997791008550248726?s=43
https://x.com/mattharmon_byb/status/1997825796262821962?s=43
People will never ‘get it’ with Wilson, they’re confused and want to make jokes about it...which is a slap in the face to what Wilson is doing and the scouting problem that keeps MHJ in the way: https://x.com/jakobsanderson/status/1997821075896541445?s=43
https://x.com/davismattek/status/1997789663558353086?s=43
-- Trey Benson is pretty much toast for 2025, I had been told to look out for that in recent weeks...and now so has Adam Schefter, apparently: https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1997649406854590760?s=43
-- Sorry to my Bears fans: https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/1997828301336035467?s=43
-- I talked about this a bunch this past offseason... https://x.com/mlfootball/status/1997432507772330121?s=43
Why should well-paid college stars rush to the pros anymore?
-- Me and Bucky Irving are on the same team: https://x.com/bucstrackernfl/status/1997674949096444229?s=43
Congrats, Bucky!
-- JJM gonna have a hard time ever escaping this...poor Pat Mahomes: https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/1997885325276754288?s=43
The ‘unholy trinity’ of pass defenses strikes again!
-- ‘Facts’...to end things on: https://x.com/itsme_urstruly/status/1997257032681083136?s=43
-- Maybe this is the more appropriate way to end things: https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1997765442337726642?s=43
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
*I go in alphabetical order, but mistakenly skipped over ‘Cleveland’...the three Browns QBs will be on here tomorrow...and I added a 3rd Indy QB today as well.*
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith
J.J. McCarthy (the 3 QBs listed after him...all bombed in their starting season), Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Riley Leonard, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins
-------------------
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