Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
11/28 FRI
(8:37amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 13 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
-- TNF First Reactions...
GB-DET
Plugging in this game result to my model of then rest of the season shot the Packers to the NFC North winners in our projections now...and the Lions to the #7 seed wild card.
Jameson Williams...ignored in this game until ARSB went down, then ‘boom’ Jamo is a star. This is the Jameson we’ve been looking for, but two zeros the past few weeks is proof they don’t really care about him. But no ARSB = Jamo is a WR1. What a ride. Ultimately, we were right about Jamo...he is ending up to be worth that 5th-round value -- it just got delivered in the worst way. At least our season-long Jamo bets should payout.
Is Isaac TeSlaa gonna step up with ARSB out? It looked like Tom Kennedy was more important.
Can you trust Dontayvion Wicks ahead? Probably not. Jayden Reed will return and go right into the rotation. GB WR usage is unpredictable and Jordan Love usually needs 3-4 weeks to throw 4 TD passes.
KC-DAL
I thought Dallas might win this game outright, but I took the points just in case. The Cowboys have just defeated last season’s Super Bowl teams...in the span of 4 days.
This Dallas win pushes them to the #8 seed in our projections...they HAVE TO beat Detroit Week 14...THEN Dallas is a serious playoff team.
Plugging in the KC loss sends the Chiefs reeling to the #8 seed as well...out of the playoffs. My Denver ‘to win the division’ bets are about a lock right now...but I’m also in line to get my DEN-LAC-KC-LV order of finish preseason bet too!
All my offseason bets are gonna hit hard and clean up all my weekly in-season Prop losses pace I’m on right now.
My bet on Kareem Hunt to be the new KC lead...Hunt 14 carries, Pacheco 3. Hunt is the new lead the rest of the way.
It doesn’t get any easier for KC...the Texans are up next/Week 14.
BAL-CIN
The Bengals were BTC Chris’s and my best game bet of Thanksgiving. I bet the game +7.0 but also bet the Moneyline straight up win, and that was good.
We also bet the Bengals to win the AFC North at 50/1...Chris reported that he was offered double his Tuesday night bet in an early payout in the middle of this game! Joe Burrow is now (8-0) in his last 8 starts.
I bet Cincy to win the AFC at 160/1...and to win the Super Bowl at 400/1...small/throw away bets...why not? If Cincy somehow finds their way to the playoffs, Burrow will be like (13-0 or 12-1) in his last 13 starts for that to happen. Wouldn’t you say they are one of the best teams in the league...as long as Burrow is at QB...if he gets this team to the playoffs?
It took to the final drive, but we did get the Mark Andrews prop...my best bet prop for the Thanksgiving Day props. It wasn’t pretty...and Isaiah Likely, for the first time all season, was used more.
Add another dud on the fire for Lamar Jackson. I told you something is seriously wrong. It was worse than I imagined here. Baltimore is ‘in trouble’.
That ‘terrible’ Cincy defense...1 pick, 4 fumble recoveries, 3 sacks.
Cincy planted 32 points on the Ravens, at Baltimore, with no Tee Higgins, and Burrow just back from 10 weeks missed with injury. Did I mention that: Baltimore is ‘in trouble’.
-- Gemini to explain the Daniel Jones injury:
Daniel Jones has been dealing with a lower leg issue that surfaced after the Colts' Week 11 bye, and it was later reported by NFL media to be a fibula fracture. Despite this serious diagnosis, Jones played through the issue in Week 12 and has stated his intention to continue playing in the critical games ahead as the Colts battle for a playoff spot. While the fibula is considered a non-weight-bearing bone (meaning a small, non-displaced fracture doesn't prevent walking), playing a high-impact sport like football on a fractured bone is extremely difficult and carries significant risk.
The primary concerns with Jones playing through a fibula fracture revolve around mobility, performance dip, and the risk of further injury. Quarterbacks rely heavily on lower-body stability and transfer of weight to generate velocity and accuracy on throws; a fibula issue can inhibit this, potentially explaining a recent dip in his production. More critically, the injury could limit his mobility, which is crucial for extending plays or avoiding pressure, especially against top pass rushes. Experts note that a direct hit to the area could turn a manageable non-displaced fracture into a much more severe injury, potentially ending his season and threatening his chances at a lucrative long-term contract following his career-best performance this season. The team is in a tough position, as their backup (Anthony Richardson) is currently on Injured Reserve.
Riley Leonard is now in play...potentially needs to play soon. Anthony Richardson is on IR, and likely will be for a while.
What do I think of Riley Leonard?...do an intra-site search (use the FFM search bar) and see, if interested. I wish that the intra-search came up in date order, but we’re working on that this offseason. Focus on the 2025 preseason game scouting. There are several scouting notes but no official overall scouting report. He is graded/ranked on the positional scouting grades.
-- Arizona WR Michael Wilson (make sure you listened to the first 20 or so minutes of the Thanksgiving Video Show...it’s imperative.
https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1992987005991702959?s=43
https://x.com/theo_mackie/status/1993024128585285877?s=43
-- ‘As the Bucky turns’...
https://x.com/PolymarketBlitz/status/1991897801341751409
-- This is a major disruption in trying to project 2026+ for Falcons assets.
https://x.com/polymarketblitz/status/1993422436415816165?s=43
And their will be a new head coach, I assume...so totally chaos trying to project that passing game especially in 2026+.
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Joe Burrow, Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
-------------------
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11/27 THU
(7:01amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
HAPPY THANKGIVING!!! Enjoy the day, the food, and the football!!
1-2 Game Reports out today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 13 projections update planned for NOON-ishET (whatever we find in the morning) and then again approx. after 8pmET for a full day’s info update.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
*Thursday Morning Special Sit-Start video show 10:30amET to 11:30amET+.
I will do 20+ minutes of an opener on the questions/dilemmas that I most see and any new news.
From there, I’ll answer the specific sit-start questions in the chat and try to be done by 11:30am or so...so that the video is out there for an hour+ before the first game’s kickoff for anyone that would like the input.
Everyone may be sleeping in (depending on your time zone) or prepping Thanksgiving but I’ll be on for any questions anyone might have.
At minimum, listen/watch the first 20 or so minutes of my monologue...it’s gonna be meant to help one and all in the big picture for Week 13...with a lean towards discussing players in the THU and FRI games.
Here’s some headlines and tweets, and my commentary/reactions on the various subjects I accumulated from Wednesday.
-- The Tampa Bay guys are back/getting back...
https://x.com/gregauman/status/1993717623348228175?s=43
We don’t know how much they’ll use Bucky Irving Week 13...which then goes to the question: How much will Tucker-White be used?
And then assuming Teddy Bridgewater at QB...how effective will any of those RBs be? It’s a bleak, cloudy, confusing situation for ‘Bucs things’ right now -- one that NO ONE knows how it will play out Week 13 given all these variables hitting Tampa...not even the coaches or players knows what’s gonna happen when Bucky takes a hit or how bad Teddy B. might be for things.
And if it’s Baker playing with a damaged shoulder...that can’t be great either?
But also note from this tweet, Jalen McMillan is starting to work out...he may actually be back in a few weeks? That’s a new variable that further changes everything...if he can get back in the mix.
-- Omarion Hampton return note:
https://x.com/alexinsdorf99/status/1993663263402557760?s=43
We also have no idea on how much LAC will push Hampton this week, if he returns (and it looks like he will). Do they have to go heavy right away to beat Las Vegas? They’d likely keep him protected a bit for the major schedule hitting LAC after the LV game/Week 13.
-- HEADLINE: DeVonta Smith was not seen at practice earlier in the day and is officially listed with an illness in addition to the shoulder and chest issues. Adding an illness at least indicates Smith could have practiced today, but the illness kept him out.
DeVonta has now missed two practices in a row. May just be extra rest for healing for the shoulder, but now extra precaution because he is feeling under the weather. There’s not a ton of time left for game week for Philly, for DeVonta to be ready. This one is definitely a watch list item.
-- CIN at BAL notes...
Joey B: https://x.com/sleeperbengals/status/1993388459785179615?s=43
Ja’Marr: https://x.com/pat_thorman/status/1993302975281008648?s=43
More Burrow v. BAL: https://x.com/fdsportsbook/status/1993422906492375462?s=43
If Mark Andrews doesn’t take advantage of this: https://x.com/adamlevitan/status/1993031820502557075?s=43
JJ McCarthy:
https://x.com/dmrussini/status/1993704621781795251?s=43
Is Anthony Richardson a JJM replacement candidate (I’m kidding...he is not, but AR isn’t kidding?):
https://x.com/vikingzfanpage/status/1993719072677331311?s=43
-- SF-CLE Note...
https://x.com/chase_senior/status/1993445068284604422?s=43
-- Momentum for Brenton Strange and Jakobi Meyers...
https://x.com/jordandelugo/status/1993376178812715243?s=43
Trevor 2025 throwing to:
Meyers, Strange, Washington: 72/104 = 69%
Everyone else: 148/264 = 56%
-- Rome Odunze keeps sinking but no one ever crushes Caleb for this like they do JJM with Justin Jefferson...
https://x.com/underdog/status/1993721174002741714?s=43
-- Our internal OL grades through Week 12...
Top 5:
1) LAR
2) IND
3) BUF (fading the last 3 weeks)
4) CHI
5) TB
*Four division winners and playoff team/2nd-place team
Bottom 5:
1) TEN
2) CLE
3) ARI
4) LAC
5) LV
*Four last place teams and a 3rd-place team that is a playoff team right now
#6 is NE...and that’s really mostly all the data before the two massive OL injuries they just took on Week 12.
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
-------------------
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11/19 WED
(8:11amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 13 projections update 7-9pmET approx.
Any betting items that I see...and we did a 2+ hour show on the THU-FRI games and prop bets and ATS items. I did 4 hours’ worth of football shows/talking last night...for your viewing and listening pleasure...all on demand on the site.
*I will be doing a special Thanksgiving Day sit-start show from 10:30am to 11:30-NoonET. It depends on how many items we have and questions that come in. I’ll go over a lot of the most asked sit-start players/situations and take questions and comments.
-- Tuesday night free agency/waivers commentary/notes (national overview)...
As projected, Devin Neal was the big ‘winner’ in free agency last night. It made sense given a week without any other real, exciting, fresh RB options. Neal was the clear winner.
The 2nd-most pursued item, showing the lackluster options this week...or a Thanksgiving week malaise, was a DST -- people went after the Chargers-DST wanting to face LV this week. Jacksonville (v. TEN) was the #2 most pursued DST.
Neal and the Chargers-DST were the universal #1-2 pursuits...and then the Jags-DST was #3 overall. Then there was a drop in intensity to two WRs...and it got kinda split in desires, nearly tied in ‘love’/desire between Jayden Higgins and John Metchie.
Brenton Strange was #6 in our tracking of players added/spent FAAB on overall -- Strange was the TE people looked to for change/hope and a position that nags many.
The intensity dropped off/faded after the top 6 (above)...
We had early tracked Chris Rodriquez and Chimere Dike to be top 5 heat for waivers/free agent night but that didn’t hold up as they came in #6-7...#4-5 if you ignore the needed/desired DSTs. Darren Waller was a close #8 most coveted/pursued overall.
What people were most moving on from (non-DST/PKs) = Joe Flacco, Sean Tucker, Rashid Shaheed, Brock Purdy, Kyle Pitts
-- HEADLINE: Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (shoulder/chest) did not participate in Tuesday’s walkthrough practice.
Given they play Friday, this is a bit concerning. They may be totally resting him from some hits he took Week 12, but this is one to watch for today’s development.
-- HEADLINE: Bears LB T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) did not practice Tuesday, and neither did Ruben Hyppolite (shoulder), LB Noah Sewell (elbow), or CB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) on the estimated report. Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson, both on IR, practiced in full on Tuesday.
Good news: Bears getting back two CB starters...that’s huge.
Bad news: All the main/starting ILBs are likely gone again this week.
Should be good for Saquon, but has anything been good for Saquon this season? Lane Johnson out trumps the LB issues for CHI, potentially.
-- HEADLINE: Chiefs G Trey Smith (ankle) did not practice on Tuesday.
Not good for KC...not good for Kareem Hunt, who I think is going to be a ‘surprise’ lead RB despite Isiah Pacheco returning.
-- Omarion Hampton seems to be moving well in practice/drills, but there’s still some discussion whether he will get fully cleared for game play this week...that they may want to give it one more week to be TOTALLY healed, and that they don’t necessarily need Hampton to rush back for a week facing the Raiders AND given that the Eagles-Chiefs-Cowboys-Texans-Broncos as five killer games/matchups the have after that.
https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1993439123265470645?s=43&t=boEIh9WoDO0-kMiW54NuYA
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are six tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here)
-------------------
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11/25 TUE
(6:52amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 13 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Report/s today...as many as we can get out.
News & Notes throughout the day.
-- A special ‘Bet The Close’ Live/Streaming Podcast -- Our annual Thanksgiving games edition.
Shooting that show tonight after the Tuesday Night Waivers show. We’re hoping to do it ‘live’. Approx. 10-10:30pmET planned start time on YouTube, if you’d like to live attend and ask any questions. Will be on-demand after that for anytime you want.
-- Prostate cancer quick update...
1) The new hormone therapy added to my existing therapy about a week+ ago...I’m rolling through it pretty well. Some mild hot flashes time-to-time and some fatigue/stamina issues catching up to me a little...but not too bad. Trucking through OK.
2) Got ‘the call’ today...the call to set up radiation, which is the much-needed battle in this war.
Late January/early February should be the time that I start the every day, 5x a week, 8 week program. NFL Draft scouting, Dynasty offseason analysis, Radiation treatments, sleep, eat, repeat coming up!
My initial hormone therapy was like getting to 1st-base and getting ready to steal 2nd. My add-on hormone therapy is getting to 2nd-base and eyeing a big lead off the base and possible steal of 3rd. Radiation is a base hit that can allow me to try to score.
-- MNF Week 12: CAR at SF first reactions...
I figured/projected Carolina would wilt in a big moment like this, and they did. Bryce Young just ‘ain’t it’...and that was on display again here.
I commented, on his return from injury, that Brock Purdy was taking some odd risks with deep ball throwing last week -- and it appeared in this game as well. Three picks in the 1st-half. Purdy doesn’t look in full control of his deep game...and it could be he still has some toe/planting and throwing issues that could haunt him for weeks or the rest of the season.
Looking for Ricky Pearsall to step up...and ‘no’. Pearsall is part of the deep ball crew, and I think every Purdy ‘pick’ was a pass intended for Ricky. I’m calling off any major Pearsall rise from here. Not impossible but two weeks of nonsense/nothing signaling Pearsall as ‘important’ in the passing game. Kittle-Jauan are much more important.
Rico Dowdle bottled up again. My other fear. It’s too easy for defenses to focus on Dowdle-Jeanty-Judkins-Henry and rather make Bryce-Geno-Shedeur-Lamar try to beat you.
Carolina with Bryce...Tampa with a huge Baker issue...and Atlanta with Kirk Cousins. If Baker is toast, do the Falcons have the best QB in the NFC South stretch run? The Falcons are two games out of first, and by the Week 13 odds -- they could be a game out of first after Week 13...with 5 weeks to go, and a game vs. TB to go.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports an MRI revealed a low-grade sprain to Baker Mayfield’s shoulder. Rapoport notes that this is “good news with an eye toward next week,” suggesting Mayfield could miss at least one game with the injury.
I think Baker definitely misses Week 13...and I bet Week 14 too. Everything for Tampa is Weeks 15-18...they face ATL Wk15, and CAR Wk16 and Wk18.
The Falcons are only 2 games back...and if TB loses Week 13 without Baker and CAR loses to the Rams Week 13...but ATL beats the Jets...and none of that is farfetched at all...the Falcons are 1-game out.
If Baker is out for a while and then isn’t ‘right’ when he returns -- the division is WIDE open, IF the Bucs lose Week 13 v. Arizona. If the Bucs beat the Cards without Baker...then the path is pretty wide for TB to take the division again.
-- HEADLINE: Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon did not have an update on Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis) to start the week.
I think they may hold him out/I have said all along...MHJ will not come back early/quickly because he’s not that kind of player. He’s gonna protect himself. He SHOULD BE back Week 13...so, probably Week 14.
And Gannon was asked about Mike Wilson IF MHJ returns... https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1993082970031505633?s=43
This is a good reason why they should take Wilson more seriously...
https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1992966721641062786?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Bengals QB Joe Burrow is practicing in full for Week 13’s game against the Ravens.
He’s definitely playing THU night.
-- HEADLINE: Packers listed Josh Jacobs (knee) as limited on Monday’s estimated practice report.
It was a walkthrough practice, so not really telling. Jacobs is gonna try to be ready/play THU for the big game v. Detroit. I believe he will play. But hold onto Emanuel Wilson in case Jacobs re-injures himself.
-- HEADLINES: Jayden Daniels (elbow) is unlikely to play in Week 13 against the Broncos.
Commanders coach Dan Quinn said Terry McLaurin (quad) was practicing on Monday.
Jayden Daniels will avoid Denver but try to get back for Week 14 at MIN. Dan Quinn is in some trouble, so he’s not gonna keep JD from playing. Quinn needs wins. If JD gets hurt again with Washington’s season over (after they get crushed by Denver), Quinn is going to get crucified by the fanbase.
McLaurin seems like a lost asset without Daniels...and wasn’t great with Daniels either. Maybe it will be better with a reboot in 2026. In 2025, I’m really not that FF-excited about Daniels’ return to that Commanders mess of an offense nor McLaurin returning to it either. Deebo would be the big winner.
-- HEADLINE: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said J.J. McCarthy is in the concussion protocol.
I don’t know if this concussion news is ‘fake’, as some suggest...that it is a move towards benching. That sounds ridiculous. But if it is a legit concussion, let’s say, then Max Brosmer is going to get a shot out of nowhere...for a team/fan base starved for a change -- and is Brosmer plays well with his ‘one shot’(?) then history, for MIN QB position, could be changed.
J.J. McCarthy is becoming the Will Levis of 2025 -- the world has turned on him, and there’s a small chance/narrow window for him to get himself out of it...but we’re very close to JJM getting on the Darnold-Mac Jones-Baker, etc., path of ‘cast out by his original team’ and will have to fight for his career revival as a backup, journeyman for a couple of years, etc.
-- HEADLINE: Browns HC Kevin Stefanski has named Shedeur Sanders as the team’s starting QB.
Stefanski had no choice. Shedeur is unbelievable...truly...
https://x.com/jonnyroot_/status/1992834885544013990?s=43
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Patriots LT Will Campbell is believed to have suffered a torn MCL in Week 12’s win over the Bengals.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Patriots LG Jared Wilson suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 12’s win over the Bengals.
This could be the end of the great Patriots story of 2025. Things like this destroy the best of teams. Look at how bad the Chargers are with their O-Line issues, and the Patriots had a bad O-Line situation before this...now they’ve lost two stable starters for several weeks, Campbell probably for the regular season.
Not good news for TreVeyon or Rhamondre or the deeper passing game...Mack Hollins.
-- Our playoff picture, for the NFL, after Week 12 results...
AFC
1) DEN
2) BUF
3) IND
4) BAL
5) NE
6) HOU
7) JAX
--------
8) LAC
9) KC
NFC
1) LAR
2) PHI
3) DET
4) TB
5) SEA
6) SF
7) GB
-------
8) CHI
9) DAL
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are six tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here)
-------------------
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11/24 MON
(7:23amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Week 12 TNF BUF-HOU Game Recap scheduled to post midday today.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...
Baker Mayfield...lower-level AC Joint Sprain...might miss a week or more but Baker is insane (good), he’d play though having his throwing arm ripped off in a freak circus accident...he’d just staple it back on and play. He may play Week 13 anyway.
Tee Higgins...Concussion...they play TNF this week, so he likely can’t clear to play if he could (not enough days).
Alvin Kamara...MCL knee injury could be 1-3 weeks, or they could shut him down for the rest of the season.
Ashton Jeanty...Ankle Sprain...50/50 for this week.
Rashee Rice...Hamstring...played through it but it’s a watch item ahead.
Joe Flacco...Dislocated finger on throwing hand but played/threw the ball with it in-game. He can play, but Burrow is likely taking over Week 13 anyway...but who knows.
DK Metcalf...Ankle sprain of unknown severity. Might miss a game Week 13, we’ll see.
==============
These next injuries (below) are hardly making headlines, but they are among some of the worst/most impactful things that happened this week (and any week). Offensive line is everything.
OL Will Campbell, NE...May be lost for the season.
OL Christian Darrisaw, MIN...The Vikings were already dying, and now Darrisaw and Donv Jackson may be out this week with 1-2+ injuries.
OL Trey Smith, KC...Ankle Sprain, unknown severity but might be 2-3 weeks.
-- HEADLINE: Chip Kelly fired.
The Raiders franchise is adrift.
I think Kelly was very fire-worthy but Pete Carroll just set himself up for a disaster...LV is getting ready to play LAC-DEN-PHI-HOU in a row. This whole offense is toast aside from garbage time.
-- The Baker Mayfield issue/ripple effect...
Everything ‘Tampa Bay’ is in trouble because either Baker plays with a major injury, as he does, but is working at 50% ability -- which affects pass game output and opponents stacking the run.
Or Teddy Bridgewater plays, and he played the worst quarterbacking of any QB in 2025 in the Rams game filling in, so everything I just said about Baker is true and worse with Teddy.
Bucky Irving returns to this mess? Doesn’t look good now...and he likely splits with Tucker-White upon first return. If Bucky doesn’t return...Tucker-White can’t thrive in this environment without Baker.
Egbuka ROY campaign...over.
Tez and Godwin and Otton...can’t have much hope.
The only hope there can be is that the Baker injury is mild and he’s gonna take a week+ off and be back to 80%+ in Week 14-15. For Week 13, all our Tampa stuff...’it’s all screwed’, is my base case analysis to start the week with TB stuff.
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow (I now have to hold the constant injuries against him)
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are six tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here)
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