Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
11/16 SUN
(7:22amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show 10:30amET-NoonET. Show access will post around 10amET+.
Week 12 final projections update will post around 12:30pmET
-- Early Injury news...
Josh Jacobs...GB elevated Pierre Strong off the practice squad, so it’s likely JJ isn’t playing this week. I have believed that JJ was not playing this week to be saved for the Detroit game next week.
Bucky Irving...word hitting that Bucky could/should be back Week 13. If true, Sean Tucker has this week/12 to shine and then probably a co-starter-ish committee with Bucky and RW Week 13...then Tuck may be just a handcuff Week 14 on. https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1992437355936924152?s=43
Aaron Rodgers...50/50, probably plays...doesn’t really matter if he does (compared to Rudolph).
Chris Godwin playing...downgrades Tez Johnson to potentially ‘drop and pick up something else’ (redraft). Let’s see what Godwin looks like, etc., but it’s probably WR3/4 for Tez for now once Godwin is back. There is some concern Godwin won’t ever be ‘right’ this season and could go right back on IR. So, I try to hold Tez for one more week maybe, but not imperative if other options needed/desired.
Kenneth Walker, Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson = All back this week. The workload Stevenson gets vs. Henderson is gonna be a huge ‘watch’ item, obviously. I think we are headed back to 60/40 with Stevenson planned to be the lead again. https://x.com/FantasyPros/status/1992397694376214656
Center Ryan Kelly back for MIN is another boost for MIN, who I think are gonna upset Green Bay today...I got a funny feeling.
Charvarius Ward is back for Indy, as the debut Ward-Sauce-Moore CB-trio for the first time.
Joe Burrow...not this week, probably next if Cincy wins this week. If the Bengals lose they fall to (3-8) and decision-time on how important it is to rush Burrow back (or at all this season). I think we do see him Week 13 because it’s a Thanksgiving game vs. the Ravens.
Travis Etienne...dealing with an AC joint sprain...likely throttled back...this could be the Bhayshul Tuten week. Today’s projection update will downgrade Etienne some and boost Tuten.
-- Doing some more research on it...I think there is something to all the Jalen Hurts stuff. I don’t know who is in the ‘right’/’wrong’ but a little bit of a civil war is brewing involving Hurts, AJ Brown, and the O-C in it a little too.
It may be resulting in Hurts not wanting to throw the ball to AJB. You think ‘squeaky wheel gets the grease’ but if there is truth to the rumor that the Eagles tried to trade Brown at the trade deadline...and explored it in the offseason -- then it’s a potential civil war that Brown is on the losing side of/is the main source of the issue.
And it may be Brown and ‘his friends’ in the locker room or organization (and the ones who hate Hurts for whatever reason) stoking this war...and it being all over ‘targets’ and ‘treatment’ and some who just don’t like Hurts as a person for ‘reasons’. It’s possible that a diva/nutty WR is leading a revolution vs. the franchise QB...and the QB is getting sick of it being allowed to keep going.
And you know what people are likening it to? Russell Wilson falling out of favor with the cool kids in Seattle. Remember how some of the players used to knock Russ over the years...even when they were a Super Bowl team (like the Eagles, currently)?
And I’m not so sure Nick Sirianni is a big Hurts fan either...remember their riff last offseason or was it this offseason? Because I think Hurts doesn’t think much of Sirianni...so, Sirianni is ‘hurt’.
Trouble is brewing in Philly...but it doesn’t mean they can’t win a Super Bowl and then ditch AJB this offseason and rebuild players/the roster to support Hurts (which is what they should do).
https://x.com/aamaro87/status/1991612381307506998?s=43
-- Kirk Cousins is gonna speak this into existence, isn’t he?
https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1991922581520417070?s=43
-- HEADLINE: Jaguars TE Brenton Strange Activated Off IR
Not the greatest news for Parker Washington...I didn’t think Strange would get activated this week. It’s not a total killer but some extra targets will go Strange’s way, potentially.
-- HEADLINE: Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. To Miss Start Of 2026 Season?
The Falcons likely have to draft or sign a QB this offseason...and that QB will be a challenge to/for Penix...and that will not help his Dynasty value ahead. Injuries...coaching...now competition...rehab...all NOT GOOD for Dynasty valuation.
== TWEETS/X’S ROUNDUP ==
-- Is he back next week? https://x.com/culturedupdatez/status/1992092432100675720?s=43
-- The amount of meetings he’s missed or been late for are mounting...all his issues are slowly leaking out: https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1992154305139470448?s=43
If you can’t be prompt and attentive going into your 100-150M+ free agency year...when will you become a professional?
-- And #1 on the list is OUT today...
https://x.com/pff/status/1991944868118348200?s=43
My metrics agree with most of the PFF group here. We don’t have Dean or Gonzo as high, but it’s a minor difference.
Steelers CBs Joey Porter and James Pierre are trying to push into the top 5 in the league, which is wild because the Steelers pass defense metrics aren’t great.
-- I got a question on the headers for the Weekly Projections, and I wanted to share the answer in case it was a question others had.
The question was what weeks make up some of the categories. So, here’s an explanation (using Week 12/current week for the situation):
*NOTE for context: Week12/the current week at any given time is NOT factored into the columns for ‘Next 3 weeks’ or ‘FF playoffs’ or ‘Rest of Season’. All those categories are forward looking.
So...
‘Next 3 weeks’ is = 13+14+15, next week it will be 14+15+16, and so on.
‘FF Playoffs’ are always = 15+16+17 (majority of league’s ‘playoffs’
‘ROS to Wk14’ (pre-most FF playoffs) this week is = 13+14, just two weeks ahead
Hopefully that helps add context. Let me know any questions or ideas for columns of data to look at each week in-season.
*And I can’t show every single week ahead displayed, for various reasons (because companies could poach that info to run their projections off of, etc. I gotta be careful what’s displayed, sadly).
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are six tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here)
-------------------
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11/22 SAT
(6:53amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...all the remaining game reports planned to post.
Week 12 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see. All my last two days of bets are updated on the betting tracker/portfolio.
-- ESPN NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: Travis Kelce is on pace for an eighth season with 1,000 receiving yards and his first since 2022. Although the Chiefs have a full collection of receivers -- Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton -- Kelce still leads the team in targets (66), receptions (50), yards (631), touchdowns (4) and receiving first downs (33). The Arizona Cardinals' Trey McBride (718) is the only tight end with more yards than Kelce.
RC NOTE: Please don’t anybody tell me you need to get your Dynasty team ‘younger’. What does that even mean anymore? And no more talk of breakout ages, etc. Like I've said for years, in this era, all the age stuff is 'rubbish'; a distraction not an indicator.
-- RC NOTE (from a recent article): Weeks 14-15-16 Geno Smith faces DEN-PHI-HOU right in a row. Geno is FF-dead as will be Tre Tucker and any other WR in that stretch.
In a few weeks, Vegas faces the unholy trinity of pass defenses right in a row. Unreal.
Now is a good time to deal away Tre Tucker, coming off a TD week, and if you don’t desperately need him Weeks 12-13...try to get out in front of the disaster coming Weeks 14-15-16. If anyone is even buying him...but as a throw-in or for some other gamble WR3 valuation in redraft like Pearsall or something?
-- RC NOTE: Flacco v. Burrow...who is starting for Cincy this week?
I have no idea. The info keeps changing back & forth. It’s like 50/50. If I had to choose a guess right now...I’d say Joe Flacco is starting.
And if that is true, and then Cincy loses this week, and the rest of the AFC North (at the top) wins...are they gonna bring Burrow back Week 13 or at all the rest of this season?
Wouldn’t bringing Burrow back to this disaster team like Dan Quinn playing Jayden Daniels late game in a blow out?
Adam Schefter says: https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1991933829221863831?s=43
-- NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: Jaguars WR Brian Thomas (ankle) will not play in Jacksonville’s Week 12 game against the Cardinals.
One more hope for Parker Washington! No Brenton Strange either. Washington and Meyers have hope.
-- NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren (ankle) was removed from the injury report and will play in Week 12 against the Bears.
I point this out because the Bears will be without their two starting ILBs for this game, and also their main backup ILB is out as well. Three ILBs out for Chicago...good for the run game and TEs/Darnell?
-- NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: The Lions’ offensive line is ailing. LT Taylor Decker (shoulder/rest), C Graham Glasgow (knee) and RG Tate Ratledge (knee) are also questionable to play.
The Lions...Goff...could be a bit of trouble Sunday if the injury report turns against them.
-- NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (fibula) is questionable for Week 12.
I think Godwin is going to play...and we have no idea how he is gonna look, but probably OK enough. It does not help Tez Johnson at all.
-- NEWS HEADLINE/REPORT: Bills coach Sean McDermott said RT Spencer Brown (shoulder) could go on injured reserve.
When key OLs go down...it’s a big impact for QBs/FF assets down the chain...as you saw on TNF. Now, the Bills got hit. Their once great-graded O-Line is falling apart.
The Lions O-Line is starting to fall apart, maybe. The Rams took another Havenstein to IR hit. O-Line is the main driver of things in today’s NFL...
== TWEETS/X’S ROUNDUP ==
-- This is good news for Jared Goff, but his O-Line needs to get healthy to take advantage...
https://x.com/pattonanalytics/status/1991612534877757882?s=43
-- Why do people hate Kareem Hunt?
https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1991645520843125137?s=43
-- ‘Salty’ Kyle Shanahan discussing Ricky Pearsall...
https://x.com/coach_yac/status/1991621224309616838?s=43
-- Internal FFM O-Line grades (for the season) through Week 11:
TOP 5:
1) IND
2) BUF (starting to fall)
3) ATL
4) LAR
5) CHI
BOTTOM 5:
1) LAC
2) CLE
3) ARI
4) BAL
5) NE
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Bryce Young, Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are six tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here)
-------------------
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11/21 FRI
(6:26amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 12 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
-- TNF First Reaction:
I wrote about the ‘unholy trinity’ of defenses last week...defenses that were going to be a major threat/squash FF assets going up against it. Well...they claimed their first victim, since writing/warning about it -- Josh Allen got killed here. If you faced Josh Allen last week, you got destroyed in most FF situations...you face him this week, a 34-point swing down from Week 11, and you’re in a really nice position to win.
*Also, note...the Bills lost OLs in-game...another spot where the new NFL is all about the O-Line -- just ask LAC and LV, among others.
https://x.com/ihartitz/status/1991720611111137629?s=43
https://x.com/benjaminsolak/status/1991706146504339596?s=43
Do we have a QB controversy in Houston? We should. Davis Mills is (3-0) as a full starter with really solid numbers, while C.J. Stroud has some kinda case of the yips this season and has a (3-5) record this season. We won’t, but we should. Everybody can play QB in the NFL...it’s apparently ‘not that hard’. More so we have 60 guys capable for 32 seats at the musical chairs game in the NFL...where 10+ years ago there were like 5 good QBs.
https://x.com/underdog/status/1991701713825460466?s=43
We projected Jayden Higgins to have a nice night...and bet on some of his props, and while he did get a TD...just 4 catches for 38 yards otherwise. BUT he actually caught several other passes...but came down with a foot or half a foot or toe out of bounds. Davis Mills also missed him for 50+ yard TD on the 1st-series...missed him on 25+ yard TD with a terribly underthrown ball...and missed him wide open for 20+ yards on reading their route idea wrong. Four catches for 38 yards was really a potential 7-8 catch for 150–200-yard game with multiple TDs lost to the universe.
Plugging in this Buffalo loss to our seasonal projections, Buffalo instantly falls out of the projected #1 AFC seed and now loses the division to NE. And Houston vaults to the #7 seed wild card and kicks the Chargers out. BUT/also...Week 17 IND at HOU is for the division title, which we have Houston losing...but if they were to win it -- they win the division in our projections. Week 13 Houston at Indy is MASSIVE. Week 12 KC at Indy is MASSIVE.
https://x.com/ajaycybulski/status/1991724956502356235?s=43
https://x.com/andrewsiciliano/status/1991577727569362989?s=43
-- NBC NEWS/COMMENTS: Things remain less certain for Bucky Irving. In a recent broadcast, ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio said he does not think Irving will return “anytime soon,” indicating that he had recently learned “inside information” about “something that probably shouldn’t be out.”
This is a bombshell from Florio. I had been hearing some similar things, which is why I was pushing for Sean Tucker more and more the previous week or two before the big 2025 pop moment...and that may end up being a league winning maneuver slash piece of information.
But a respected local TB reporter isn’t so sure on what Florio is saying...
https://x.com/nflstroud/status/1991738044466995690?s=43
Rick Stroud is also pointing this out: https://x.com/nflstroud/status/1991653071567614382?s=43
-- NBC NEWS/COMMENTS: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that the “expectation” is Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) to play in Week 13 against the Colts.
Again, I ask... Do we have a QB controversy in Houston?
We should.
If they even tried to let Mills run with it a bit...Stroud would demand a trade, and this offseason would be chaotic.
Houston did sign Davis to an extension to add 2026 under contract to his existing deal (that would’ve expired after the 2025 season).
If Stroud gets in Week 13, and Houston gets rocked by the Colts...oh boy...
-- NBC NEWS/COMMENTS: Bengals QB Joe Burrow took snaps with the starting offense again on Thursday, “preparing him for the possibility that he could play” in Week 12 against the Patriots.
I can't believe Burrow is going to be back already but if he is practicing in-full I don't know what stops him from starting Sunday. I'm starting to operate and project like he is going to start on Sunday. It’s not a lock, but it’s trending that way.
-- NBC NEWS/COMMENTS: Charvarius Ward is firmly on track to play in Week 12 against the Colts. The Colts’ secondary has been banged up this year, so Ward’s return is a positive occurrence. Colts slot CB Kenny Moore II is also fully healthy after dealing with an Achilles injury for much of the year.
Bad news for Kansas City... The Colts are about to get all their injured starting cornerbacks back for this week's game, plus they have the recently acquired Sauce Gardner. The Colts are going to arguably have one of the best CB trios starting a game in Week 12...out of nowhere.
== Tweets/Xs Round-up ==
-- Social Media + Football Fans = the cruelest people you know (and often the funniest)...
https://x.com/coopafiasco/status/1991001314482942051?s=43
https://x.com/nflhatememes/status/1991720490961088566?s=43
-- Facts?
https://x.com/nickelenis/status/1990793390183850066?s=43
-- We should make t-shirts of this and wear them all after the season officially ends...
https://x.com/lobosffden/status/1990961009150820458?s=43
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
(You might think I’m making a long list, but this is actually a tiered list...it’s oddly starting out that there are 6 tiers of QBs that I see/feel so far. The list will start moving sideways from here/soon)
11/20 THU
(7:33amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 12 projections update planned approx. 7pmET range after TNF inactives.
TNF BUF at HOU...my overview of the game and what I am betting, if anything, will post 6-8pmET.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
-- HEADLINE: Colts opened the 21-day practice window for CB Charvarius Ward (concussion).
The thing to continue to keep in mind here...Ward is a really good CB, and he’s been out for a few weeks. If/when he gets back to join up with Sauce Gardner, it will create, instantly, one of the best CB duos in the NFL. Which may lead to one of the best defenses in the NFL...at least one of the tougher to pass on.
Is it gonna happen this week...just in time for the Chiefs game?
-- HEADLINE: Head coach Mike Macdonald said on Monday that the initial news on Grey Zabel’s knee injury was “really positive.” He could still miss some time, but it doesn’t appear to be a long-term injury.
This is major (good) news for Seattle. This would’ve really dented their playoff chase, but they will likely lose him for 1-2 weeks...and they face the Titans this week, so they can treat it like a bye almost.
-- HEADLINE: Rams placed RT Rob Havenstein on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Rams placed TE Tyler Higbee on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Ian Rapoport reports Rams S Quentin Lake (elbow) underwent surgery
The Rams can overcome all of those injuries with their depth, except the loss of Havenstein...that stings. The Rams have better OL depth than most, but that one sets them back for a few weeks having to work around it.
TB-CAR-ARI-DET are the next 4 games he will for sure miss. That Lions game miss could be a difference maker. If he’s back the next game, it will be Havenstein returning for the CRITICAL Week 16 TNF game...AT...Seattle.
== Interesting Tweets/Xs Roundup ==
-- CeeDee Lamb game preparations...?
https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1991238549241475160?s=43
-- I thought Caleb Williams would lead this chart, but he’s dead last. The QB in first rattled me a bit...
https://x.com/panthersanalyst/status/1991247585869492729?s=43
But it’s not many sample sizes for most/each QB, so 1-2 plays can throw the whole thing, but still...
-- Do with this as you wish...
https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1991207643013054509?s=43
I just ‘can’t’ with Kirk Cousins...so, Mooney will probably go off for at least like 30+ yards...
I’m joking, Cousins will probably go for 400+ and Mooney 100+, because some team uses them again one of my FF teams.
-- FYI on a Rome Odunze start this week...
https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1990825577176051737
== TE scoring trends (Week 6-11) ==
PPR PPG (Wks 6-11):
24.5 = McBride
20.4 = Bowers
16.2 = Kelce
14.0 = Warren
13.9 = Kittle
13.7 = Gadsden
13.3 = Schultz
13.3 = LaPorta
12.3 = Goedert
11.2 = Juwan
11.1 = M Andrews
Top 5 in Rec. Yards (Wks 6-11):
443 = McBride
431 = Gadsden
388 = Kelce
310 = Warren
303 = Schultz
Top 5 in Targets (WKs 6-11):
57 = McBride
41 = Schultz
38 = Gadsden
38 = Pitts
37 = Otton
Top 5 Total TDs (WKs 6-11)
6 = McBride
4 = Kittle
4 = Kraft
4 = JFerg
4 = M Andrews
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Lamar Jackson
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
11/19 WED
(7:34amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 12 projections update 7-9pmET approx.
Any early betting I see that I want to lose money on, I’ll put it out there so you can bet the opposite...with my luck/skill lately. Last week wasn’t the worst: Some big wins (Sean Tucker) with big losses (Josh Palmer) offsetting it to a +/- 0% week...which is better than negative ROI weeks.
-- Waiver TUE Night Commentary/notes (national overview)...
Emanuel Wilson did ‘win’ the waiver night, as our early projections showed. He had double the average spend in FAAB and the highest average priority in ‘order’/claim free agency.
Emanuel Wilson was way out in front followed by Michael Wilson and Sean Tucker as the kinda ‘tied’ for #2-3 spots.
Bhayshul Tuten and Kenneth Gainwell drew interest after that, ahead of Zon Knight.
The Browns were BY FAR the DST of interest in free agency this week.
Tyler Loop made a big move in PK free agency...it was Loop and Fairbairn as the hottest kickers people grabbed.
It was a more subdued, uninspiring TE week. There was a late break towards AJ Barner and really cooled interest in Dalton Schultz or Juwan Johnson as a TE fill-in for the week.
Jacoby Brissett easily won the night among the FA QBs, but Kirk Cousins got a lot of heat too.
Names being dropped most: JCM, Parker Wash., Flacco, Otton, Dike (noting this that sentiment on these players are way down, if you’re interested in them for Dynasty Stash types on JCM, Dike, PW...and Otton as a TE flier ahead for those in need.
-- TE FF Schedule look...
FAVORABLE
You want your TE to face the Bengals, for sure...and we got a TE that is facing Cincy 2x the next couple weeks. After Cincy was out in front as the most favorable defense on the TE to face, the Steelers are a nice draw, as are the Jaguars and Dolphins AND the 49ers (lots of LB injuries). Keeping those five defenses, here are the TEs drawing these defenses the most ahead (Weeks 13-17)...
3 times = Mark Andrews (CIN/13, SF/14, CIN/15)
3 times = Tyler Warren (JAX/14, SF/16, JAX/17)
Here are the teams/TEs facing 2-3 of those defenses in Weeks 12-13-14:
2 times = BAL
2 times = BUF (but Kincaid may no be back for any of it)
Here are the teams/TEs facing 2-3 of those defenses in Weeks 15-16-17:
2 times = BAL
2 times = IND
2 times = MIA (Dulcich probably, but Waller maybe?)
UNFAVORABLE
You don’t want your TE to face Buffalo...they are TE killers. After BUF it’s Philly and Houston...and maybe Atlanta holds up but there is risk they will fall out from here. We’ll look for the TEs facing those ‘Big 3’ + Denver…while Denver’s defense vs. the TE isn't statistically elite, passing games are definitely under pressure against them in general.
So the TEs facing BUF-PHI-HOU-DEN the most ahead (Weeks 12-17)…
3 times = Brock Bowers (DEN/14, PHI/15, HOU/16) *What a terrible time for this schedule.
2 times = Travis Kelce (HOU/14, DEN/17)
2 times = Oronde Gadsden (PHI/14, HOU/17)
2 times = Zach Ertz (DEN/13, PHI/16)
2 times = Dalton Schultz (BUF/12, PHI/17)
2 times = Dalton Kincaid (HOU/12, PHI/17)
-- George Pickens ‘LOVE’ day, yesterday...because THEY saw it on national TV with their own two eyes!!
https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1990634524456226994?s=43
https://x.com/kurtbenkert/status/1990615686209507613?s=43
Jerry Jones saw it too...
Jerry Jones touted Pickens when he spoke to reporters (after the MNF game).
"Pickens was — I’ve never seen a performance like that. It was poetic the way that he was making those moves out there. It was like he was in an opera or something out there. A ballet," Jones said
When does Steelers’ ownership finally ‘get it’ on the problem they have with the coaching of players in their organization...and why all the trade-available and free agents WON’T go there? Likely never.
-- PK Scoring Trends (Wks 6-11)
PPG (Wks 6-11)
12.0 = Dicker
11.8 = Myers
11.5 = Boswell
11.0 = Santos
09.8 = McPherson, Reichard
*#8t Aubrey (9.2)
50+ Yard FGs (Wks 6-11)
5 = Boswell
4 = Pineiro
4 = McLaughlin
3 = Reichard
2 = Eight tied, including Aubrey and Dicker
-- For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We start today with the ‘As’ ARI and ATL. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Michael Penix
Jacoby Brissett
Kyler Murray
Kirk Cousins
11/18 TUE
(6:55amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 12 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Reports today...mid-morning and hopefully another will post in the evening.
*Last night started my new round of hormone therapies being dropped on top of my original set to try and really launch a nuclear bomb on my cancer...but with that comes new risks of side effects.
I’m on so many pills right now doing so much churn to my body I can’t hardly keep track of them all. I’m hoping this new round won’t hit me too hard. We march on! Next stop...a blood test in a month to see where we are at on the scoreboard. As long as the numbers keep dropping I’m working my way towards radiation treatments in 1Q of 2026.
-- MNF Week 11: DAL at LV first reactions...
I thought the Raiders were in trouble here given their O-Line issues and Dallas having rebuilt/debuted a brand-new defense (with all their trades/changes) -- and that’s exactly the main storyline from this game. You can’t make too extreme a judgment on the new Dallas defense because the Raiders are a gift to face due to the O-Line. BUT it’s a good first step.
George Pickens/Dak Prescott will be the main headline from this game because offense is what is talked about, not O-Line analysis/debate. And Pickens had arguably his best game in the pros that I’ve ever seen him have...he had a true, elite ‘#1 WR’ night/showing -- but with that he also got penalized for being an idiot on a TD celebration...AND he was ‘benched’ (with CeeDee) for something lacking in preparation for this game. All that reminds me that Pickens is one of the 5 or so most talented WRs in the NFL, but I don’t know how you invest one of those $100M+ deals into him because he is so immature and really just ‘dumb’. Jerry has a big decision this offseason.
Ashton Jeanty...6 carries for 7 yards. Rebuilding Dynasty teams...get Jeanty in a ‘dump’ deal, don’t go for ‘picks’...go for real players we have seen. lV will build an O-Line to support Jeanty...eventually.
-- HEADLINE: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase has been suspended for one game for spitting on Steelers DB Jalen Ramsey.
Great news for my Joe Flacco stock. You can do all the scouting and trend analysis, etc., and then your QB loses his top of the NFL heap/superstar WR because the idiot spit on somebody. It’s what makes FF so great and sucks all at the same time.
I’m sure we’ll hardly tell the difference between Chase and Charlie Jones or Mitch Tinsley.
-- HEADLINE: Packers HC Matt LaFleur said Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee contusion. When asked if there was a chance Jacobs could play in Week 12 against the Vikings, LaFleur said, “Potentially. We’ll see where he’s at.”
I would bet A LOT Jacobs sits out this week (home v. MIN), to buy a week to get to Week 13 health-ish vs. Detroit. An MCL injury...he can try to play through it, but his abilities will be zapped to some degree, a not good degree.
-- HEADLINE: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said he’s “not going to get into any of that right now” when asked if there was a level of performance that would lead J.J. McCarthy to get benched.
This is so ridiculous. Was anyone asking if Caleb was gonna get benched every week/all his rookie season? What about Cam Ward this year?
It’s not going well for JJM right now. It does look sketchy. But he has had some good moments. He’s still very early in this. Can you let him have a few months to see how he is developing?
Nope. The mainstream has their target locked on him.
They did this to Will Levis last year...JJM is their scalp in 2026. I’m sure JJM will be good...somewhere around 2020, like is the trend with these QBs now. He just needs a couple of years and three different teams. He’ll be a Charger before you know it.
-- Just an FYI for those that didn’t know (like me until I saw it by accident running some projections)...
1) The Falcons have been obviously fading away.
2) Kirk Cousins will be the QB the rest of the season.
3) Kirk Cousins is the worst starting QB in the NFL.
4) When I run the seasonal projections with Cousins...ATL loses out from here.
5) If ATL were to lose out...in our projections...ATL would then have the #2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
6) Actually...the LA Rams have the rights to their 1st-round pick! Arguably the best team in football might get a top 3 pick in the NFL Draft in 2026. Wow.
-- It’s Tetairoa ‘love’ time for the mainstream. I thought he was a bad route runner and lazy and couldn’t separate? I’m looking at your Steve Smith...
https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1990471358162350348?s=43
https://x.com/thomaswrrld/status/1990182928048103661?s=43
-- Kenneth Walker’s going to trend up now...
Seems Seattle shifts their RB plans about every month or so. It’s still gonna be a split to some degree, but maybe now Walker doesn’t come out for EVERY res zone event.
-- The Drake London forecast is gonna be bad with Cousins...if London is healthy enough to play (he’s already out Week 12)...
https://x.com/sleepernfl/status/1990448945663996320?s=43
-- Mark Andrews ain’t ever leaving Baltimore is he?
https://x.com/underdog/status/1990517801824760052?s=43
GPS info is cool...except, I don’t trust it. And this piece of info isn’t helping change my mind from that.
-- Jalen Hurts has had two wobbly weeks after a great start to the season, but Philly still won his two shaky games...but still/now there’s a QB controversy? Are you kidding me? The Super Bowl winning QB?
But apparently this reporter is connected?
https://x.com/eliotshorrparks/status/1990480134554386525?s=46
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11/17 MON
(6:08amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Week 11 TNF NYJ-NE Game Recap scheduled to post midday today.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...
This is how we start the day, as more specific info will hit throughout the day:
Josh Jacobs PCL sprain...projected back Weeks 13-14...and then may be rushed back/not right upon return.
Drake London knee sprain...possible one game missed, maybe none.
Aaron Rodgers broken bone in left wrist. Potentially done for a month+ or the season.
Seattle ace rookie OT Grey Zabel might have a serious knee injury.
Michael Penix...left knee sprain...may or may not miss a week.
Dillon Gabriel...concussion. Unknown severity.
Calvin Ridley...ankle fracture...season over.
Chimere Dike...concussion. Unknown severity.
Bhayshul Tuten...ankle. Unknown severity.
Eddy Pineiro/SF...pulled hammy?
-- This may be the best AI video of 2025:
https://x.com/notthefakednp/status/1990234747134734474?s=43
-- This may be the best non-AI video of 2025 season:
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/1990139528607314203?s=43
-- I’m trying to use Joe Flacco down the stretchy...and now idiotic Ja’Marr Chase is gonna get himself suspended for this week, isn’t he?
https://x.com/theponiexpress/status/1990185029222506518?s=43
https://x.com/bepryor/status/1990184732118667386?s=43
-- The Michael Wilson week comparison...
https://x.com/underdognfl/status/1990211491254190515?s=43
-- JJ McCarthy hate is going to boil over today...
https://x.com/haterreport_/status/1990152596108062947?s=43
-- CeeDee Lamb vs. Davante Adams...
https://x.com/thomas_carrieri/status/1990072532200808510?s=43
-- Our 2025 Season Computer Sim’d out with the Week 11 results in (except MNF)...
Playoff seeds...
AFC:
1) BUF
2) DEN
3) IND
4) BAL
5) NE (13-4 wild card)
6) KC (yes, they do make it)
7) LAC
---------
8) PIT, HOU, JAX all (9-8 tie w LAC, but LAC gets the tiebreaker)
NFC:
1) PHI
2) LAR
3) TB
4) DET
5) SEA
6) SF
7) GB
------------
8) CHI
2026 NFL Draft top 5:
1) TEN
2) NYJ
3) NYG
4) CLE
5) NO
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