Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
11/1 SAT
(7:54amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...the final reports to wrap up the week.
Week 9 projections update 8-11pmET range.
Any new betting items that I see that I want to lose money on, I’ll put it out there so you can bet the opposite...with my luck/skill lately.
-- Last night, I went to go visit my son who lives 3 hours away...and to our surprise, my other son flew in from Florida for an impromptu family get together 24 hours!! Shopping and eating and celebrating last night and today on all the good news on the cancer fight front this week/s.
So, the final two game reports from last week will post sporadically during the day and I’ll be getting back to do the SAT night projections update tonight as normal.
Sunday is a ‘back to normal day’. But today is going to be a ‘fun’ day thanks to Ross and Chris and Andrew scouting and reporting games for us...and the 6 teams on a BYE to make this a lighter report week!
-- News items...
Kyle Monangai week (Swift out)? Pretty favorable...facing the Cincy defense. But he’s not a star talent...but that doesn’t matter as much as ‘touches’. Travis Homer could surprise with touches here too.
TreVeyon Henderson week (Rhamondre out)? Yes. Terrell Jennings will get some chances too, and if he looks good it could be more split than anyone thought...but TH is in the driver’s seat. In the words of Troy Aikman, I’ve always liked Terrell Jennings...he’s good/scrappy but not likely bumping off Henderson here, but...
Travis Hunter...BTJ or Parker Washington (Hunter out)? Ross and I have been saying all season...the most comfortable Trevor Lawrence throw is to Parker Washington -- last game, Parker had 10 targets and 3 carries WITH Hunter having his bigger game.
Kyler Murray playing MNF? I am thinking he won’t. But it’s an unknown. Such a great matchup for the Arizona QB vs. Dallas D. Jacoby Brissett could be a QB1 this week.
Joe Flacco playing this week? I don’t think he will, but he’s being coy.
-- For the Kareem Hunt holders who are worried: https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/chiefs/2025/10/30/kansas-city-chiefs-hc-andy-reid-discusses-plans-at-rb-after-isiah-pachecos-injury/86975589007/#
-- I believe Dallas sees Malik Davis ahead of Jaydon Blue, push come to shove. And you might see that reading between the lines here?
https://x.com/NickHarrisFWST/status/1983620461230473557
-- Kenneth Walker’s run game metrics are really good, but his FF output sucks...for Zach Charbonnet reasons. Could this week change some things on KW’s outlook?
https://x.com/JamesDKoh/status/1984075875386847387
10/31 FRI
(7:53amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 9 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports. Could be more 10-MidnightET tonight due to some scheduling conflicts.
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
-- Week 9 TNF First Reactions...
It wasn’t the prettiest, but Baltimore did have their ‘smash party’ with Lamar and everyone else back from injury. Miami wasn’t blown away by the Ravens, per se, it’s just every time they drove down the field setting up for a score...a ‘Washington’ (Tajh and Malik) would fumble and ruin all the momentum.
Mark Andrews, a Baltimore Raven for life, scored two TDs. With the Ravens about to storm back for the division lead/title, there’s no way they will trade Andrews. They were likely never gonna...he’s like a legacy player. Once the trade deadline is over, 11/4, which is before TUE night waivers...then you can redraft drop the pipedream of Isaiah Likely.
3 TDs from TEs for the Ravens in this game...the league is shifting to a heavy TE-usage-in-the-passing-game league. It’s still in the early phases but is emerging.
We will see if Mike McDaniel lasts the day employed. He probably will. Might as well let him coach it out to the end now.
-- This Rhamondre Stevenson thing is getting serious...
Here’s the basis of the rumors/fears going around:
https://x.com/fantasyumpire/status/1983657743371178015?s=46
TreVeyon Henderson might be in for his first big workload opportunity.
-- How bad is Quinshon Judkins injured? I don’t know. Because they are on a bye, we won’t get any injury insight this week...but there is fear he might miss 1-2 weeks (Week 10 and possibly 11) with an AC joint issue.
They are saying he is day-to-day...but they don’t have to really accurately report until next week.
-- Top 10 shutdown CB info season-to-date... https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-the-top-10-shutdown-cornerbacks-of-the-2025-nfl-season-so-far
-- FYI...
You know how the Tennessee Titans are ‘bad’, right? Well, they are on track to be without their three starting cornerbacks intended for this season AND without Jeffrey Simmons (their best defender) this week...
L’Jarius Snead = IR
Jarvis Brownlee = Traded to NYJ
Roger McCreary = Just traded to LAR
This is the defense that Justin Herbert and the Chargers are facing this week...a pass defense that is already #17 in pass yards allowed, #28 in QB rating against, #31 in Comp. Pct. allowed. And this week they will be at their theoretical ‘worst’ starting lineup ever in 2025.
-- Our Internal O-Line Grades through Week 8...
Top 5 BEST O-Lines:
1) BUF (5-2)
2) DEN (6-2)
3) LAR (5-2)
4) IND (7-1)
5) ATL (3-4)
*A combined 26-11 record. 20-16-1 ATS for the season.
Top 5 WORST O-Lines:
1) CLE (2-6)
2) LAC (5-3)
3) TEN (1-7)
4) ARI (2-5)
5) BAL (2-4)
*A combined 12-25 record. 15-23-1 ATS.
-- So, I had my first meeting face-to-face with a prostate cancer specialist doctor at a prostate cancer center locally -- and it went really well. I got to meet the whole team who are now taking over my treatments and fight. A very nice group of people who have impressed me from the minute I was referred to them back a couple of weeks ago.
The highlights of my first meeting/tour...
The specialist said my cancer is maybe more Stage 3 than 4, in this era, because the spread is ‘localized’ and they have such advanced weapons to deal with it now. That’s what I want to hear! We’re saying I’m like a ‘Stage 3.5’...I still have lymph nodes to deal with, but it’s very ‘localized’ (not much spread).
If the hormone therapy I’m on keeps working well, I should be good/on it for the next 2+ years...eventually getting to come off therapy and seeing how I fare/seeing if the cancer doesn’t fire back up. If it does, we catch/detect it early with quarterly testing, and we go back to the hormones. I could go for 10-20 years going on and off hormone therapies managing this. BUT...the doc also said I might possibly BEAT cancer totally and get clear with my hormone treatments and radiation. Not a sure thing for a total annihilation, but it’s the first time a doctor (and this was the first time I met with an actual specialist in prostate cancer) has said I could possibly clear myself totally (but then always being on an alert/testing for any signs of a comeback).
‘Radiation’ is the next/ultimate treatment goal, which is huge for me in the battle for longevity...and they think all roads lead to radiation in early 2026. My odds for more and more longevity and eventual normalcy go up very nicely if they radiate and it’s successful.
I got my blood drawn to get tested to see where I am truly at in the fight right now...with the PSA score (active cancer in my system) the big thing to see the result of. When I get my PSA score, I will share it. The doc thinks my PSA might be down to 0-2 already, being on the hormones for just 2 weeks and that I’m taking to the treatments well early on -- that the cancer is getting ‘starved to death’ rapidly. If my PSA is down to 0-2 already it would be HUGE. I should know by Monday end.
All good news today...but it was all talk (just really promising talk!). The ‘proof will be in the pudding’ of that blood test result and subsequent testing every couple of months. We just need to see the PSA going down (I am at a PSA ‘18’ start point months ago)...we don’t want the PSA score stagnant or going up. But if we find out the PSA score already went down to 0-2 level...then I am getting out to a big 1st-quarter lead (football analogy).
Will keep you posted on the PSA scoreboard number when I get it.
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10/30 THU
(8:20amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...a focus on game reports for the rest of the week.
Week 9 projections update planned approx. 7pmET+ range after TNF inactives.
TNF Week 9 tonight: BAL at MIA...my overview of the game and what I am betting, if anything, will post 6-8pmET.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see (but DK and FD have been very late/not early posting things so...prob. THU we'll have more things to consider).
-- TRADE: Jets acquired WR John Metchie and a 2027 sixth-round pick from the Eagles in exchange for CB Michael Carter and a 2027 seventh-round pick.
This feels like a ‘who cares’ trade but it’s actually a brilliant trade...once again...by the Eagles, potentially.
No one cares about John Metchie. NFL teams keep hanging on to his NFL Draft grade, etc., but since his NFL Draft he has unfortunately had to battle cancer and missed a year+ and never returned the same. I can definitely sympathize with this -- but also know/realize that he may have lost his high-end abilities from a football sense in the battle.
But Michael Carter...that guy was one of the better/decent slot corners in the NFL from 2022-2024. He fell out of favor with the new regime in 2025...and they just gave him away yesterday.
I do not understand the NFL giving away these corners this year like they’re nothing...Philly got Jakorian Bennett (on IR) and Michael Carter this season in deals for near nothing and the Rams just got a very solid Roger McCreary for near-nothing from the Titans...the same Titans who gave away a very good Jarvis Brownlee to the Jets a few weeks ago. The Titans gave away two really solid corners for peanuts.
I like the Eagles in this trade...it was definitely worth taking a look at Carter for nothing.
-- INJURY NEWS: Zac Taylor told reporters that Joe Flacco’s odds of suiting up in Week 9 against the Bears currently sit at “50-50.”
As Ross Jacobs reported/speculated...this is probably 2-4 week type issue. We are highly assuming no Flacco this week, and thus all the Cincy-related things are reducing for FF projections.
-- My physical well-being update, three quick items...
1) I’m still catching up to all the wonderful emails sent to me a couple weeks ago on my announcement...I’m getting there but still have a chunk of them to go. I will be responding to each one from all sent in the past couple of weeks...doing about 2-4 a day. I’m getting there...please don’t take offense if I have not responded to your email. I’m getting there ASAP!
2) I got a bill from my second body scan for cancer...a PET scan that shows any cancer in the bones, soft tissue/lymph nodes, and the prostate itself and to what degree. I took a radioactive injection and then got into a like 45-minute MRI machine type scan.
The bill showed $41,000+ for that scan. Insurance paid their part, and I have my much smaller (but sizable) amount to pay...but the $41,000+ was a ‘wow’ to see. To all you young people paying $X amount into insurance and never using a fraction of it (yet)...just note: there will come a day when you will likely get back all your premiums paid in with some event/s in the future, so don’t complain about the cost being taken out now for something you rarely use currently.
But if you do complain about it, like I did back when I was young and indestructible -- I thank you for paying in because the collective of people paying in and NOT using it helps those of us who all of sudden are gonna be a massive/negative ROI on the insurance system. Seriously, thank you! If not for insurance and ability to get to these specialized/expensive scans, etc., my outlook would be much more dire.
3) My first meeting with a real specialist is today. Which is crazy when you think of it...I had MRIs, biopsies, scans for the past two months and it was known I had cancer to some degree a month+ ago, but I’m just now able to get a meeting with a specialist in the field.
Why?
Because the early stages of this is me getting passed around from thing-to-thing, always having to have a meeting with a doctor so that they could get ‘referred’ to the next thing. They could’ve just sent me to the next thing right away, but there was always a ‘meet with this person’ event to get them to refer you to the next part of the game...a constant chain of approvals between lower-level doctors and insurance, etc. It’s not a streamlined system. But I didn’t know it because who is prepared for these things?
But when you consider a $41,000+ scan has to be paid by someone/the system...the system can’t approve things in a blink...they have to have their own guard rails and approvals and fraud checks, etc.
At first, I did what I was told...just went meeting to meeting when they said, BUT then when I figured out basic logic on things, and started asking questions...I got angry and started intervening and pushing schedules and asking more ‘what if’ and ‘could I’ questions that you think some team of doctors would be doing/asking/debating on my case like you see on a TV medical series -- but they aren’t doing that. ‘Dr. House’ is fictitious...especially for someone not a billionaire.
The doctors in a big system have no idea who I am (why would they), they see a bunch of people each day/hour/week, they check/skim my file 0-10 minutes before we meet for 10-15 minutes and they make the typical/standard recommendations on the fly, while in a hurry to get to the next patient meeting (where they do the same quick scan of a file and answer fast and move on to the next...it’s like an assembly plant not a personal ‘Manhattan Project’ by the doctors). My questions, my research, etc., have driven things as much as any doctor (so far) has road mapped a specific-to-me plan.
All that may change today when I meet with someone who specializes in prostate cancer...but maybe not...we’ll see. I’ll report what I find out. But I’m more aiming for/more encouraged/more anticipatory of my MD Anderson meeting in two weeks. There feels like/is a HUGE difference in getting past the lower-level doctors who are not specialists or they do different things/wear many hats versus the doctors who just do ____ in my case they just do prostate cancer. I can feel the power of what you see on TV with teams of doctors working on cases/debating cases with MD Anderson (who all they do is cancer)...a power that I do not feel in my local big city system, so far. Maybe all that will change today when I meet my first local/big city top rated doctor in this specific field -- who (in my mind) I should’ve met with a month ago, but I didn’t know and that the system had 24 speed bumps and stop signs set up for me to even get to this person.
-- RB Trends Weeks 4-8...
TOP 10 PPR PPG (Wks 4-8)
28.3 = JT
25.4 = CMC
24.0 = J Jacobs
22.7 = Bijan
19.7 = Gibbs
19.5 = Achane
19.4 = Swift
18.2 = Javonte
17.6 = Jeanty
17.4 = Skattebo
20+ Yard Runs (Wks 4-8)
5 = Breece
4= JT
4 = Achane
4 = Dowdle
4 = KWalker
Top 5 Best YPC (30 or more carries Wks 4-8)
6.4 = Dowdle
6.4 = J Cook
6.2 = JT
6.0 = J Warren
5.8 = Ch Brown
Top 5 Lowest YPC (30 or more carries Wks 4-8)
2.8 = M. Carter
2.8 = D Montgomery
3.0 = Allgeier
3.1= Rhamondre
3.2 = Chuba
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10/29 WED
(6:51amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 9 projections update 7-9pmET approx.
Any early betting I see that I want to lose money on, I’ll put it out there so you can bet the opposite...with my luck/skill lately.
-- Waiver TUE Night Commentary/notes...
Crazy night for waivers...I don’t get much of it.
I see so many Brashard Smith bids and priorities across the land, and a general ignoring of Kareem Hunt. I expected Hunt to get ignored/lower prioritized and Smith to be chased hard from the early data...but I didn’t expect to see Smith get chased so hard/bid up so much. The power of rookie hopes and dreams...
Tyrone Tracy won the ‘most coveted’ player of the week, as expected, but in some leagues Brashard got near the same level/amount of FAAB bidding.
I thought Troy Franklin would be the #2 hottest FA of the week, but people cooled on him/didn’t trust him in the end. Christian Watson and Kayshon Boutte got about as much love in waivers.
Darius Slayton got some love in places, more than I expected. The long TD called back by penalty in Week 8 had an effect.
I see many FFMers got Chimere Dike without much resistance in normal redraft leagues. But in deeper roster/Dynasty there was a little bit of a fight for Dike.
The Rams-DST was a huge add for DST nationally...followed by the Lions.
Tank Bigsby had a lot of heat...100+ yard game Week 8 and daydreams/fears of Saquon being hurt drove a lot Barkley owners to have to chase...and plenty of other daydreamers were hoping for a secret Saquon injury that will propel Tank Week 10, but I don’t think that’s happening at all/I think Saquon is fine and gets two weeks off. But Saquon owners couldn’t risk it now/later, so the chase was on.
-- NBC HEADLINE: 49ers acquired EDGE Keion White and a 2026 seventh-round pick from the Patriots in exchange for a 2026 sixth-round pick.
The former 2nd-round pick who always had ‘big things’ expected was given away by the Patriots to the desperate for pass rushers 49ers. Smart move by SF. White was really flashing some last season but never put it all together. Maybe Robert Saleh can get through to him.
-- NBC HEADLINE: Steelers acquired SAF Kyle Dugger and a 2026 seventh-round pick from the Patriots in exchange for a 2026 sixth-round pick.
Mike Vrabel doesn’t like ‘not his guys/the former regime’s guys’. Keion White gone, and now Dugger gone. Hey, the Pats are in first place so I’m not doubting him.
-- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes “at least one” of the Saints wide receivers will be dealt, and added that “if I had to bet, I’d say Rashid Shaheed is the guy who interests most teams.”
I think Shaheed will be traded and my ranking of likely destinations is:
Denver = No one can probably appreciate him more than Sean Payton, who discovered him.
Pittsburgh = I don’t know why, but they’ve been desperate for another WR... a veteran WR. They have Calvin Austin, so I don’t get it but...
Atlanta = They desperately need WRs.
Buffalo = Josh Palmer hurt, Keon Coleman failing...Shaheed would be an added luxury for their title pursuit.
Baltimore = Always in the WR market.
LA Rams = Trying to put together the greatest show on turf 2.0...
-- QB Scoring Trends (Wk4-8)...
Top 10 PPG 4pts (Wks 4-8)
27.5 = Mahomes
24.6 = Nix
22.7 = Dak
22.6 = Maye
22.4 = Stafford
22.0 = Hurts
22.0 = Dart
21.7 = J Allen
21.2 = Stroud
21.0 = Herbert
Top 5 Pass Yards (Wks 4-8):
1,430 = Mahomes
1,304 = Baker
1,280 = Herbert
1,269 = Dak
1,268 = Nix
QB Rushing Yards (Wks 4-8):
195 = Dart
191 = Fields
179 = Herbert
163 = Maye
155 = Mahomes
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10/28 TUE
(7:34amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 9 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Reports today...mid-morning and hopefully another will post in the evening.
MNF first reactions...
-- This was a pretty miserable performance on both sides for a half...then KC kinda got going in the 2nd-half, but it wasn’t pretty. Washington never got going because their O-Line is dying and Marcus Mariota is the worst and the Washington game plan was a joke/didn’t help him out.
-- I think Isiah Pacheco took a good shot to the knee and had it bent back late in the game. He’s gonna feel that in the morning and maybe all week. On a short week, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t play Week 9...or if he does it will probably be ill-advised. Those PCL type sprains and strains can be played through, but they cut the player effectiveness down for 1-3 weeks. Kareem Hunt might really be something this week. We’ll see.
-- Another week where Jacory Croskey-Merritt has nowhere to run. He’s doing the best he can with the little/no space, but it sucks for FF purposes. Unfortunately, he has two bad matchups with top run defenses in the next two weeks...SEA and DET. Week 11 v. Miami might be his next moment.
-- As we projected last week or so...Washington is NOT headed to a repeat playoff appearance it appears. They really need to get Jayden back and they must beat Seattle on SNF Week 9 or it’s about ‘over’ for them for the playoffs with their schedule ahead.
-- On the executive report Monday, I wrote the following: The RBs most likely dealt this next week: Mostert, Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, Zamir White, Jerome Ford.
Let me play matchmaker with how I think this will go:
Raheem Mostert = Traded to Green Bay...Matt LaFleur is in the Shanahan/McVay ecosystem, so Mostert would get a recommendation to go there if the 49ers don’t feel like they need to make a move for him. Houston is possible as DeMeco Ryans used to be D-C in SF.
Devin Singletary = Will likely stay put. NYG’s staff is in jeopardy so they need ‘all hands on deck’ now that Skattebo is out. Daboll won’t help Dallas...and probably won’t help Green Bay because he’s not from that Shanny/McVay ecosystem...he’s more likely to help New England because he’s from the Belichick ecosystem.
Tony Pollard = Possibly back to Dallas. Won’t be New England, the Titans won’t want to help Vrabel. Possibly to Green Bay if Mostert doesn’t go to GB. Possible long shot to Houston.
Zamir White = Mostert traded probably means White stays in LV for depth/to take hits and workload off Jeanty a little bit.
Jerome Ford = Dallas is my top guess. Dallas needs a legit #2 bad. Jaydon Blue is not ready. Mafah is probably on IR all season. Malik Davis isn’t enough if a crisis hits.
-- Arizona Cardinals backfield stirrings...
Trey Benson is eligible to come off IR Week 10...but he may not be ready until Weeks 11-12-13 range. He’s not back practicing in any way yet that I have info on.
Arizona cut Michael Carter on Monday, which is VERY odd. Had to be an off-field incident with the coaching staff...OR they cut him with the intent of then re-adding him, they’re just making roster moves/maneuvering...but it’s odd they would do it with Carter.
I don’t think it means anything for Benson because they need RBs until Week 10 at least. Bam Knight would be in full control of the backfield if Carter is gone-gone, but that pesky D’Ernest Johnson is on the roster as well...but it should be/was already moving towards Bam as the lead and D’Ernest (or Carter) in support...again, unless the Carter move was just a temp move and he’ll be back today/tomorrow.
-- NBC HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports free agent WR Tyler Lockett is expected to sign with the Raiders.
This move is a precursor to a Jakobi trade, I assume. ‘Where to?’
My rank of landing spots:
Falcons
Bucs (if they are worried about Godwin)
Ravens
Eagles
-- NBC HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Broncos CB Patrick Surtain (pectoral) is week-to-week with a strained pectoral.
The word going around is 4-6 games missed potentially. This is a KILLER to the Denver-DST. Defense is dead in the NFL and FF. Stream them a week at a time, or not...I don’t even know anymore. Surtain is getting a second opinion, so let’s see what develops today but this is a HUGE hit to Denver-DST and as a team...KC is being shoved ‘by fate’ back into winning the AFC West.
-- TE FF Scoring Trends (Weeks 4-8)...
Top 10 PPR PPG TEs (Wks 4-8)
18.3 = Kraft
18.0 = McBride
15.8 = Goedert
15.4 = Warren
15.0 = J Ferg
14.6 = Kelce
13.2 = Gadsden
12.7 = Pitts
12.1 = Barner
12.0 = LaPorta
Top 5 Yards (Wks 4-8):
340 = Kelce
339 = Gadsden
300 = Kraft
299 = Warren
246 = Otton
Top 5 TDs (Wk 4-8):
6 = Goedert
6 = J Ferg
4 = Kraft
4 = Theo Johnson
4 = Waller
Top 5 in 20+ Yard Catches (Wk 4-8):
6 = Warren
6 = Gadsden
5 = Kraft
5 = Otton
5 = Kincaid
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10/27 MON
(7:22amET)
-- Today Agenda...
Week 8 TNF MIN-LAC Game Recap scheduled to post midday today.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injury watch from Week 8 Sunday...
Quinshon Judkins Shoulder issue (AC joint sprain?) = Bye Week 9. Hopes to be OK for Week 10, but with the bye we won’t know the extent...could be 2-3 weeks on the bad side. Back Week 10 on the good side.
Saquon Barkley groin injury = Has a Week 9 bye, so will probably be OK for Week 10.
Marvin Mims concussion = But I could not care less because he’s gone from my rosters, concussion or not.
Alvin Kamara knee/ankle = Unknown extent
Carson Schwesinger high ankle = 4-6 weeks out, estimated.
Ed Oliver bicep = could be a bad one.
Joe Flacco AC Sprain = Bye Week 9, should be back for Week 10
Harold Fannin (unknown injury) = Bye Week 9, not sure if anything of concern.
-- It’s easy to say ‘bench the bum’ when QBs aren’t killing it...but they are human...
https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1982568560015614443?s=43
-- If the playoffs were locked in today...
The Colts and Packers would be #1 seeds.
Jacksonville and the 49ers would be the last teams in as wild cards.
Seattle would win the NFC West.
The last teams out of the playoffs would be Kansas City (a win tonight sneaks them ahead of JAX) and da Bears.
The top 3 picks for the 2026 NFL Draft would be: (1) Saints, (2) Jets, (3) Titans
Coaches most likely to be fired this offseason: (1) Mike McDaniel/MIA (2) Jonathan Gannon/ARI (3) Kevin Stefanski (4) Mike Tomlin (5) Brian Daboll
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