The headline, the reason to watch this game, was to see the Colts QB battle ‘Round 1’ square off against the Ravens ‘B-C-D’ units. And because the Colts were gonna use a lot of 1st-team offense early and deploy two ‘starting QBs’ versus Ravens backups, Indy was a (-5.5) favorite going in. I intended to bet the Ravens +5.5 because the Ravens are stone cold killers in the preseason, but I got caught up in work and forgot to place the bet...and, well, the Ravens won outright.
I’m not going to put my foremost feelings about this game study in the intro, because it’s gonna make more sense to put it in the next section, in the first topic. Let me give a hint of where we’re going...
Upon watching this game, somewhere around the first quarter end or so...I jumped onto FanDuel and made a bunch of anti-Colts bets. Yep. All from watching one quarter of a Colts preseason game.
Player Notes...
-- Let’s start out talking about the Indianapolis Colts QBs.
Not.
Good.
Anthony Richardson (2-3 for 21 yards) started, threw a couple OK-ish passes and then his last pass was thrown right into coverage and was near picked/should’ve been picked. Richardson looks as ‘jumpy’ as ever, to me, as a passer. There is no change...he just doesn’t see or read the field well, period (at a high NFL level). Give him extra time...and he might throw a nice rocket somewhere. Give him 20 throws in a game, and 1-2-3 of them might be legendary...but the other throws will be ‘head scratching’ and ‘off the mark’. People focus on the ‘legendary’ throws because they are what is shown on highlight real tapes, and they look cool...but those special throws are not the likely outcome of him dropping back to pass.
AR is like a baseball player with epic power who hits some gargantuan homeruns that will take your breath away...but he has a batting average of .175 and strikes out 50% of the time. If you let that type of hitter play full time and get 600+ at-bats in a season, he’s gonna have 20 home runs on the season with 10 epic, highlight reel home runs...but will strikeout 300 times and lead the league in runners left on base. He’ll be an overall liability, but he will have some moments few humans are capable of. That’s Anthony Richardson.
It doesn’t look any better in 2025. I felt like watching AR in this game was like I left a game tape from 2024 on by accident. There is no change. He looks the same in practices/practice games in 2025, as he did in this brief game appearance.
It was a brief appearance because in his 2nd-series he didn’t sense a free blitzer and got nailed and this happened to take him out of the game: https://x.com/PropSwap/status/1953633167153279091
The finger injury looked like it might keep Richardson from being the Week 1 starter...because if it was a 50/50 battle to this point, now AR will lose 1-2-3-4 weeks (or more) working with the offense...and Dan Dimes is gonna win it by default...unless the finger is one of those things you kinda pull and twist and pop back into place. After I wrote all that, news just hit that AR is ‘day-to-day’ and not as bad off. I have a hard time believing he bounces back so quickly and that this doesn’t affect him...but we’ll see. The news sounds better for him right now.
I will give this compliment to Anthony Richardson...he’s not as bad as Daniel Jones (10-21 for 144 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). To keep with the baseball analogies, Daniel Jones is a pure singles hitter that is well-trained in a batting cage but is kind of afraid of the ball against live pitching and is a no-power slap hitter who hits for a better average than Richardson but has zero pop in his bat and just pops up and grounds out all the time with the occasional 2-hit game slapping and flaring balls out of the infield from time-to-time...he might even get a 3 or 4 hit game with enough at bats because everything he slaps into play luckily loops into a base hit...but over time it’s mostly weak outs as a result of an at-bat and he has no impact/hurts the team more than helps it.
If I were the Colts, I’d start AR over DJ Week 1...even if AR misses the entire preseason now. You can’t win with Daniel Jones...you’re just play not to lose. In boxing terms, at least Richardson is capable of knocking out Mike Tyson (in his prime) if he luckily lands one good shot. Dimes will never beat Tyson with light slaps and trying to evade Tyson for as long as he can. Richardson v. Tyson lasts one round, a lot of it winding up with AR knocked out within seconds...but every so often AR would get lucky and blast Tyson and shock the world.
Which all leads to the top revelation from this game -- rookie Riley Leonard (12-24 for 92 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 4-34-0) is the best QB talent on this team, right now. I am not joking. I am not trying to be hyperbolic to prove a point -- Leonard is better than AR or DJ.
But Leonard isn’t ready either, because they are not getting him ready because he’s a lowly 3rd-teamer. But don’t be shocked that Leonard is starting by Week 3-4 or so, if AR is out with his finger for 2+ months. If AR is back right away from this latest injury, then Leonard likely starts around Week 10-12 on...maybe...unless they just leave AR out there to die, to show the fans ‘it’s Richardson’s fault’.
Leonard has moxie. He has a decent arm, but more importantly he has confidence in his game. He is not completely rattled in the pocket. He is willing to run the ball into the teeth of a defense. Notre Dame didn’t get to the title game last season by accident. Leonard is not great, but he’s got more going for him than AR or DJ. I watched Dan Dimes throw off his back foot, scared half the game...gimme a guy like Leonard that is not scared, who can lead the offense by example whereas Dimes cannot because he gives off ‘scaredy cat’ vibes, like he always does.
How in the hell did the New York Giants make the playoffs AND win a playoff game led by this guy?
Just some final FF notes on all this...
Richardson has some value because he will start eventually, possibly by Week 1...then you can trade him, if you’re stuck with him. AR could be good for a spot start in an emergency, for FF, hoping he runs the ball a bunch.
Daniel Jones will probably start Week 1, and that will be OK-ish for Josh Downs and dreadful for Michael Pittman.
Riley Leonard’s value rises on speculation, but I’m not sure how great that will be for FF 2025.
...and one last thought on the Colts QB situation...and why I went out and bet against them in various ways mid-game...
This Colts team played this game with very little emotion or energy. I think you can already see this team knows they are screwed with either starting QB, and their head coach is also milquetoast -- and the team is taking on their coach’s personality AND sensing the downfall to come. Daniel Jones is the epitome of milquetoast, which is why I have thought all along Shane Steichen was gonna name him the ‘winner’ of the QB battle...he identifies with Dimes.
It's a bad scene in Indy, but that’s probably a good thing because now the new owner can clean house and rebuild this thing, and Chris Ballard can get what he has deserved for years.
-- Who the Colts were throwing to a lot out of the gates...was Tyler Warren (3-40-0/3). Keep in mind it was his rookie debut...Downs-Pittman-Pierce didn’t play...it’s only wise to get Warren some touches and ‘break him in’.
Warren looked fine...he looks like he always does to me...he’s supposed to be a superhero TE, but he looks Jake Ferguson-esque to me...which is not special, but it’s fine/good. I’m looking for the superhero side of things, but he didn’t show it in his brief appearance here.
-- Offensive MVP for the Ravens this game: LaJohntay Wester (2-41-0/3, and an 87-yard punt return TD.
Wester was fine here, but not special-looking at all. Looked like a poor man’s Rashod Bateman. He’s got NFL ability, but more of a team’s #3-4 WR and punt returner. He proved he belongs. There may be more to him, but I need to see more of his NFL work ahead to get more excited. First glances here...he’s fine/OK/good...better than Tez Walker (0-0-0/2), for sure.
-- The Ravens gave good work to two RBs that I was very interested in seeing their progress (or not)...
Keaton Mitchell (9-68-1) got the start and had a TD run, but just visually observing his work...I didn’t see that old special speed/burst that Mitchell had before he literally tore 17 different things in his leg and knee a year+ ago. He just does not look like the Keaton speed that I remember. Maybe he needs more time to heal or get used to playing after all that...but from this look, it’s Justice Hill as the Derrick Henry handcuff.
Rasheen Ali (9-37-1, 0-0-0/1) looked more like a ‘real’ RB of the two here, to me. Ali makes the smart cuts and has higher level vision working the interior, but he’ll be a #3/4 with Keaton to start the season.
-- As for the Colts RBs...
Tyler Goodson (4-11-0) was first in the game for Indy (JT sitting out)...he was fine, a known commodity.
D.J. Giddens (6-17-0, 0-0-0/1) came in next, quickly, and he looked as expected/remembered...quick, slithery. Of all the RBs in this game, DJG was the best-looking among them, to my scouting eye. He’s just a handcuff if JT goes down in 2025. In 2026, the skies look a lot clearer for him...potentially.
-- Defensive MVP of this game? That’s easy...BAL rookie UDFA, ILB from Iowa, Jay Higgins (3 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT). The thing to note here -- Higgins played like he belongs in the NFL. The UDFA status was not warranted. He’s either making that team or getting poached off the Ravens practice squad...for sure by Indy, if they try to cut him pre-53-man, because they just saw it.
-- Two young kickers in this game...
Ravens rookie Tyler Loop (1/2 FGs, a 52-yarder late) looked fine. He missed his first FG attempt but later in the game, with the chance to kinda put it away, he nailed a 52-yarder down the middle which would have been good from 60-65+.
Spencer Shrader (3/4 FGs with a 53-yard long) had a nice day kicking as well. He missed one FG with a ‘doink’ off the post. He’s likely to win that kicker job...it really isn’t much in doubt.
-- Adonai Mitchell (2-37-0/6) played a lot of snaps, while Alex Pierce watched in street clothes...so, that tells you Mitchell’s status on the Colts -- a 2nd-team WR. He didn’t do anything here that got my attention.
-- A couple IDP notes...
Indy rookie SAF/LB Hunter Wohler (9 tackles) looked legit...led all players in this game in total tackles. Played mostly SAF. He’ll be a key starter and leader for this defense sooner-rather-than-later.
The talk of Colts camp has been 3rd-round rookie CB Justin Walley, who worked his way into already being named 1st-team/starter...and promptly tore his ACL in this game and is done for the season. This game for the Colts was about as bad as anyone could’ve imagined...from how uninspired and weak they looked to awful injuries.
To add to that, 2nd-round rookie EDGE J.T. Tuimoloau (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) sustained a knee injury of unknown severity as well.
BAL had one serious defensive injury... Rookie 6th-round CB Bilhal Kone (1 tackle) blew out his ACL and MCL and is done for the season as well.
