Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
7/9 WED
(7:39amET)
-- Yesterday, Netflix debuted the 2nd-season of their football documentary series ‘Quarterback’. This year’s group is Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins.
Here’s the trailer: https://youtu.be/00JaPxoZxiY?si=HZDE_pXiIJ7CWpv5
I did not watch the debut season last year...it didn’t really call out to me...I only have so much time in a day to consume football and non-football stuff outside of what I need/want to watch for sure for work. But I think I am going to try and watch at least the first episode of this one, to see if I like it...I’ll try one because I love Burrow, I am interested to learn more about Goff’s WR/TE relationships (if they even give us any insight), and the whole Kirk Cousins thing is an interesting soap opera.
If I watch episode 1, and subsequent episodes -- I will write a review/pass on any relevant betting or FF stuff here. Otherwise, this is a PSA that season two has just dropped.
-- Headline item in the news: Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that Dallas Cowboys running back Miles Sanders split first-team work during mandatory minicamp with backfield mate Javonte Williams.
I am not moved by this information.
No team signs two recently productive, veteran RBs (cheap) but then drafts two RBs on day three...and then jams the rookies into the early OTA starting role. Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah will get their shot to make a run at a starting role come the preseason...whether they capitalize it for Week 1, we’ll see. Dallas didn’t draft Blue/Mafah because they are locked in with Javonte-Sanders.
I would not lock in/assume Williams-Sanders as starters...and even if they do begin as the starters, it could only take a week or two before they get replaced. It happens that way in-season with ‘weak’ RBs often.
This RB race has a ways to go, in Dallas.
Miles Sanders has a terrible contract...a contract that says ‘he’s a nobody’, and can be cut quite easily with a pocket change lost of guarantees.
Javonte Williams has a better contract, but it is also easily cuttable if needed/wanted. Dallas only gave him $1M signing bonus/guaranteed.
Sanders feels like the one who will get cut, but we got a-ways to go in this. Mafah getting cut and then hoped to be put on the practice squad would be the second-most likely outcome from August as the lone RB pre-53-man roster move. Blue is a lock to make the team. Javonte likely makes the team and is the veteran presence, ceremonial starter. What it looks like Week 1 and Week 4 is going to be very different, I suspect.
-- I thought this was a fun little stat to look at (below/attached), and all of the names are ones you might expect to be their team’s #1...but there is one on there that stands out from the rest as a bit of an odd-ball.
...unless you were with us last season when I kept saying this receiver was secretly/not so secretly his QBs favorite target...that the tape just screamed it.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-safety-blanket-wide-receivers-highest-target-rates-pressure?utm_source=Klaviyo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insider_scoop&_kx=nZzGUmQqKGAgupUcdTUr6u8i0RU4NTLFuxBwXedA1Uc.U7MhhG
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Jacksonville.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, Michael Penix
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray
Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo, Detroit
Denver, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona
Carolina, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler.
7/8 TUE
(7:59amET)
-- I’m making my way back to homebase from some summer travels for fun and some meetings this past week. An overload of windshield time is about to end, and the NFL training camps will soon open up, and before you know it -- real football will be back! This summer has gone by in a blink...but I think I am ready for cool fall temperatures. It’s been a sauna outside everywhere I’ve gone recently.
FFM items ahead this week:
Draft Guide rankings update tonight.
Oronde Gadsden scouting report midday today.
Dynasty rankings update Wednesday.
Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings update Thursday.
I’m finishing a REWIND study that is very important; to be released sometime this week...a bit of a big shift in my thesis/scouting...it’s not Drake Maye, I tabled that one to get to this particular one/player coming. It’s a surprise...and important.
Starting work on the mega-mock (re)draft on Wednesday...to be published...?? Published when it’s done, and I’m not sure when ‘done’ is -- because it’s a monster one to start the mock draft, pre-training camp season. But ASAP
-- Here’s some typical feelings/sentiment from Miami reporters/fans on the Ramsey-Minkah trade.
https://sports.yahoo.com/article/bad-odor-jalen-ramsey-behavior-032501184.html?guccounter=1
There are all kinds of ‘Ramsey is a problem’ reports hitting...that he was late to practice and unfocused, etc. And the Miami reporters/fans are celebrating the fact that they ‘got rid’ of this ‘problem’.
My thoughts, and discussions with people I trust on this is -- Ramsey was lax, he’s always been...but he’s so good it doesn’t matter as long as he’s focused come game time...but reports of Ramsey’s issues are falling in line with a bunch of issues with Miami players the past few years...which SHOULD be sending warning alarms off on the common denominator of the issues = head coach Mike McDaniel.
Not everyone can lead an organization, be a leader of men. Doesn’t mean he can’t be an offensive genius or a likeable dude, etc., but his head coaching ability is, and has been, called into question by many people the past season or two, and the list is growing...especially issues with his coaching and management (D-C hiring and management of) on the defensive side of the ball. They used to complain that Buddy Ryan only cared about his defense and kind of ignored his offense...and it was kinda true. What if Mike McDaniel is the opposite version of that? He wouldn’t be the first. Most coaches gravitate towards ‘their’ side of the ball that they are familiar/comfortable with.
Mike Tomlin and Mike McDaniel really have what each other needs...if you paired them two together, put Tomlin as the HC and defensive counsel and leave Mike McDaniel alone to deal with the offense, but have Tomlin there to step on toes with any offensive players getting out of line -- it would be sweet music together, potentially.
But taking them separately, Tomlin is offensively-blind, with the worst offenses and O-Cs in the league for years...and has the worst O-C in the game yet again. Over to Miami, Vic Fangio could leave Mike McDaniel fast enough...and went right over to the Eagles, turned the defense immediately, and won a Super Bowl. Why did Fangio fail in Miami? Very likely, because of McDaniel’s culture or lack thereof in some way.
In the battle of ‘headache’ or ‘lax’ defenders traded in the MIA-PIT deal...how much you wanna bet Ramsey turns things around under Tomlin...and Minkah continues to decline in Miami?
-- Three TE stories I found interesting yesterday...
1) Jonnu Smith’s journey, in his own words.
2) The last time I remember Travis Kelce pointing out a TE at the TE U. (event), which he has done several times over the years, but this one memorable one (to me) a few years ago, it was a guy that I thought...he’s (Kelce) just being nice, that guy’s not that good...and that TE was Jake Ferguson. Kelce was right.
But he (Kelce) also pointed out Daniel Bellinger along with Ferguson their rookie year. Bellinger I thought would make it, and Ferguson would be ‘meh’. It’s been the opposite, so far.
Here’s one of Kelce’s pointed out guys at TE U in 2025...
3) When Sean Payton says:
(clip from the article below) “Hey, you ever heard of Jimmy Graham?” Payton asked Lohner, (as his Uncle Mike recalled). “We’re going to make you the next Jimmy Graham.” I think we should probably pay attention?
Both Ross and I have done some minor scouting work on enver 7th-round draft pick Caleb Lohner, and we don’t really ‘see’ the ‘next Jimmy Graham’ here...BUT this is a developmental thing, so he could really pop with training perhaps (3+ years college hoops, 1 year college football) and we could change our tune fast. We’ll see how he looks in the preseason.
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/07/07/caleb-lohner-broncos-tight-end-jimmy-graham/amp/
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Indianapolis.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, Michael Penix
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo, Detroit
Denver, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona
Carolina, Indianapolis, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Almost done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report to be published ASAP.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
For those into Best Ball and Unique FF tourney action...It’s FastDraft, from our friends at PlayerProfiler.
7/7 MON
(6:48amET)
-- A new week...post-July 4th holiday week...I’m headed home from a long weekend of being lazy, hanging with my friend for a boys weekend...and watching baseball/betting on baseball and eating a ton of calories. It’s getting close to the time for no more trips, no more friends, no more sleep...report for football service for a 6-month ‘tour of duty’ of all football, all the time.
The summer, as always, is going by in a blink...and as much as I like this little lull in the football news/activity in July -- I can feel the training camps time is getting ready, the preseason games about to begin, Fantasy redraft season is about to pop. Honestly, July is a fun breather...but I am starting to get the itch for football to get back going...and I am ready for the horribly hot and humid period of the South to depart and the perfect fall temps to arrive.
It won’t be long now.
This week, among all the other items -- a mega mock draft piece I’ll work on all week...like a 3-4 mock drafts in-one report with commentary on my picks/rounds from various spots each round, which will kick off mock draft season the rest of the next 2 months to get us as ready as we can for redrafts and best ball, etc.
That opening mock piece is a doozie...5-7-8K+ words. I hope it can be done this week/end.
Here’s three quick news item/outside articles that may be of interest:
-- Dumb...misdemeanors...not suspension level...not smart...but his position doesn’t warrant any particular genius:
-- A nice, fluff ESPN story on Marvin Mims...
-- A little Theo Johnson update of interest for some...
-- Item/visual stat that I thought was interesting...
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/1941907295509606779?s=43
More interesting, as always, in a bizarre, clinical analysis of societal psychology way...are the X account morons who make comments underneath an X post.
No one is like ‘congrats to Jalen’ or ‘wow, that’s impressive’ or ‘what a statistical deviation’...instead it devolves into the typical chaos and negativity...comment-fighting about how Josh Allen isn’t good at goal line work because of this stat, and Jalen Hurts secretly sucks, and how Hurts is a jerk for killing Saquon (2024) and D’Andre Swift’s (2023) FF value by stealing TDs, and how Lamar Jackson isn’t on the list, so he sucks.
Less than 30 days until the opening preseason game...football is almost back. Also coming back, all the online critics/fight-pickers/know-it-alls of everything mob. My first thought is -- ‘I can’t take another year of these idiots’, my second thought is -- they deserve for all of us to take their money in FF and betting player props, etc.
It’s almost that time...
-- QB hierarchy (daily)...
(Same intro daily): I got into a conversation with Ross J. the other day about who were the top QBs in the NFL, and where did Patrick Mahomes rank among them...which got me to thinking about the QB group as a whole, for just 2025 -- if I had just this one season as an NFL head coach and I could have any ONE QB, who would it be? So, I am going to go in team alphabetical order each day and just simply put that day’s QB into the list/rank...so I can focus on just that QB and compare him to the other options. It will be a vertical list, and quickly/also a horizontal one putting them in ‘tiers’.
One QB a day, as we play this out for a month...just for fun.
Today’s add: Houston.
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, Michael Penix
Jordan Love, Kyler Murray
Caleb Williams
Joe Flacco
Bryce Young
-- (Same intro daily): I wanted to add another little ranking thing, for fun, before training camps begin -- my NFL team power ratings. Who I think has the best roster/team/coaches/GM...who I think the best TEAM in the league is, right now, for 2025.
We will run this ranking parallel with the QB hierarchy, going in alphabetical order/daily:
Buffalo, Detroit
Denver, Baltimore
Houston, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, Arizona,
Carolina, Chicago
Cleveland
-- Coming up on FFM today/this week...
*Devy 2026+ scouting series began yesterday and runs all month.
*The receiver group ‘tournament’ has begun and runs for a week+. A full division per day then the playoffs and the finale/Super Bowl.
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP. Almost done an Oronde Gadsden report.
*Draft Guide rankings have been updated for the week. Next update after July 4th, like the MON-TUE after the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Special reports that pop up will be published randomly all this week.
**Working on my next REWIND report...probably on Drake Maye.
=====================
How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
