Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Playoffs (AFC + NFC Conference Finals)
AFC Conference Finals matchup:
#5 Broncos at #1 Bills
The thing about the Bills chopping their way through this Faux 1.0 playoffs is -- they have home field advantage. Which for many teams, in this era, isn’t that big of a deal anymore -- but it’s a big deal playing Buffalo in Buffalo in Dec.-Jan. If the Bills don’t get home field advantage in any of our Faux simulation seasons ahead...they aren’t going through the playoffs. Simple as that. Everything in a fake world and in reality for Buffalo is -- getting home field advantage.
Having home field here against an upstart Broncos team that rides a hot defense to the AFC Finals -- it gives the edge once again to the Bills. Obviously, Buffalo has a good team as it is...but home field is just that little extra juice. You gotta lean Bills in this type of matchup...Buffalo has been so close, so many times...finally it’s their turn going over ‘a not ready yet for the whole enchilada’ Broncos team.
The Bills win 57% of the simulations.
NFC Conference Finals matchup:
#2 Rams at #1 Lions
The re-re-match of Goff v. Stafford.
Last year, Week 1...the Rams scratched and clawed in their matchup, and with the Rams heavily injured (at the time) they still nearly defeated the Lions at Detroit, but some late game luck led to a Detroit OT win. Also, in the 2023 playoffs...the Lions hosted LAR and snuck away with a 1-point win.
It’s been a war between them, but you gotta give the edge to the Lions at home.
Do I think the Lions are hurt by their coordinator changes? Possibly, but I’m betting against it. I think they will improve on defense with their changes and if they stay healthy and just keep the same script on offense -- they can go to the Super Bowl, like they should have the past 2 years.
The uncrowned champs of 2021-2022 = the Bengals.
The uncrowned champs of 2023-2024 = the Lions.
The Lions win 51% of the simulations and go on to the Super Bowl.
Super Faux 1.0: #1 Bills v. #1 Lions
The finals play out tomorrow!
