Running a computer simulation of the 2025 NFL season using our FFM internal data/projections.
Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Playoffs (AFC Divisional Playoffs)
#7 Bengals vs. #1 Bills
Man, you do not want to face Joe Burrow in the playoffs...but the Bills home field advantage pays off here and the squeak by the Bengals and move on to the AFC Conference Finals.
A war between Allen v. Burrow, but the winning factor is how much better the Bills defense is across the board and in depth.
The Bills win 53% of the simulations.
#6 Chiefs vs. #5 Broncos
Will the Chiefs extend their current 8-game win streak by exercising their experience factor over another AFC West playoff team? Nope. Denver takes them down.
You got the Denver home field + if you think the Eagles defense gave KC fits in the Super Bowl, then it could be worse here with the Denver defense. Denver slips past KC and is on to the AFC Finals.
The Broncos win 51% of the simulations.
Playoffs (NFC Divisional Playoffs)
#5 Commanders at #1 Lions
The Lions have been so close the past couple seasons, but something strange always gets in their way of making it to the Super Bowl...but given a bye week and home field, they move step closer here taking down the Commanders, a team that it is easy to forget made it to the NFC Finals last season!
The Lions win 59% of the simulations.
#3 Buccaneers at #2 Rams
The Bucs were upset in the playoffs last year, in the wild card round by the Commanders. The Rams had the Eagles beat last playoffs but botched it with under a minute to go...and the Eagles went on to win a Super Bowl. That Rams team that gave Philly it’s toughest test last playoffs, they’re back and better than last season’s team and they take out the Bucs here...to set up one of the best rivalries in football -- the Lions-Rams with the infamous Stafford-Goff trade as the baseline storyline.
The Rams win 60% of the simulations.
AFC Conference Finals matchup:
#5 Broncos at #1 Bills
NFC Conference Finals matchup:
#2 Rams at #1 Lions
