Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Playoffs (NFC Wildcard Round)
#1 seed = Detroit
#5 Commanders vs. #4 Eagles
As 2025 season wears on, the Commanders, Jayden Daniels gets better and better...and there will come a point where Daniels’ sheer ability/dominance will get the Commanders over -- and it could very well be by this point in year two, having faced the Eagles 5 times in their last 27 games, and having faced them two times in the prior 3 weeks, and having lost the division to them at Philly Week 18...the 6th-time is the charm and the Commanders finally ‘go over’ on Philly here and the NFC East is never the same again. It’s time for a changing of the guard.
The Commanders win 51% of the simulations here.
#6 Cardinals vs. #3 Buccaneers
The Cardinals got here on the back of a great early schedule, but they faded in the 2nd-half of the season...but glided into a wildcard -- and they will get totally wrecked here by the better, more experienced Bucs.
The Buccaneers win 68% of the simulations.
#7 Vikings vs. #2 Rams
Bad draw for the Vikings, the experienced Rams host the young QB-led Vikings and it’s closer than you’d think...and Minnesota is going to be an NFC power to come, blowing past the Rams and others...but not right here, not on the road n the playoff debut with J.J. McCarthy...too tough a task.
The Rams win 57% of the simulations.
The re-seeded Divisional round matchups in the NFC:
#5 Commanders at #1 Lions
#3 Buccaneers at #2 Rams
