Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Playoffs (AFC Wildcard Round)
#1 seed (bye) Buffalo
#5 Broncos at #4 Texans
Bad draw for the Texans...they face a top defensive unit that’s too much to overcome for the still kinda weak O-Line for Houston. It’s close, but...
The Broncos win 52% of the simulations
#6 Chiefs at #3 Chargers
A bad draw for the Chargers...such a nice season for LAC, but they get the playoff experienced Chiefs playing like disrespected underdogs as wildcards/not winning the division for the first time in forever, and winners of 7-in-a-row in our models...make it 8-in-a-row, as experience wins out in the 1st-round.
Two wildcard games so far, two lower seed wins.
The Chiefs win 54% of the simulations.
#7 Bengals at #2 Ravens
Make it three-for-three on ‘bad draws’ and three-for-three on ‘lower seed pulls upset’ in the AFC Wildcard round. The Ravens have been chokers in the playoffs with Lamar, while Burrow has typically been a killer. You don’t want to face Joe Burrow any time...but especially not in the playoffs.
The Bengals win 52% of the simulations.
The re-seeded Divisional round matchups in the AFC:
#7 Bengals vs. #1 Bills
#6 Chiefs vs. #5 Broncos
