2025 Faux FFM Computer Simulated Season 1.0 (Weeks 16-18) *Final standings added

Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.

This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.

In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.

Notes from Weeks 16-18...

 -- Best record in Faux 1.0...and runaway #1 seed in the AFC (by 3 games) and AFC East winner by 6 games = Buffalo (15-2).

The NFC #1 seed? Detroit (13-4) with the tiebreaker over the Rams (13-4).

 -- Earning the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft...the battle for Arch Manning, supposedly, is the Saints (2-15). CLE-TEN-NYG (3-14) all just missed.

 -- The Bills (15-2) won the AFC East by 6 games. The Patriots (9-8) miss the wild card by one game.

 -- The Ravens (12-5) take the AFC North. The Bengals (10-7) ride a 4-game win streak at season’s end to take the final wild card spot.

 -- Houston (10-7) easily wins the AFC North. No other team in the division finished above .500.

 -- The AFC power is in the AFC West...three playoff teams. The Chargers (12-5) pretty much go wire-to-wire to win it, but Denver (11-6) and KC (11-6) tried to catch them in the end, but fell a game short. KC won 7 in a row to get to 11 wins.

 -- The Eagles (12-5) hold off Washington (11-6) for a second season in a row winning the NFC East. Dallas (8-9) falls just short of getting into the (9-8) log jam for wild card spots. If they acquire Jalen Ramsey before the next Faux season (2.0)...Dallas might be a playoff team projection.

 -- Detroit (13-4) cruises to the NFC North title and a #1 seed. Green Bay and Minnesota both finish (9-8) and are two of 4 teams at (9-8) fighting for the last two wild card spots. Washington is already in as a wild card.

 -- Tampa Bay (12-5) wins the NFC South again...with distance over Atlanta (9-8). The Falcons are part of the 4-way ti8e at (9-8) trying to get into the 2 last wildcard spots.

 -- The Rams (13-4) had already clinched the NFC West on our last report/after Week 15. They officially win it and Arizona (9-8) is the 4th member of the wild card hopefuls fighting for the 2 open wildcard spots. SF and Seattle just missing the 9-win group at (8-9).

 -- The AFC playoff spots are set...no tiebreakers to get into the wildcard. As far as the official seeding and matchups, you’ll see them tomorrow.

 -- The NFC playoff spots are NOT set...two of GB-MIN-ATL-ARI will be the #6 and #7 seeds, and two of them will miss out. You'll see who is in and out on Friday 5/30, when we play out the NFC Wild Card round.

 -- 2025 Faux 1.0 coaches to be fired projections:

Brian Daboll (in-season) and GM Joe Schoen

Brian Callahan

Arthur Smith (Tomlin hangs on)

Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard

Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier somehow don’t get fired.

Awards:

MVP: Joe Burrow, CIN

ROY: Ashton Jeanty, LV

COY: Jim Harbaugh, LAC

-- My last Faux (3.0) of 2024/last season predictions (Sept. 2024) on coaching fires and awards, let's see how they turned out...

Coaches who get fired after 2024 Faux 3.0’s results:

Doug Pederson (YES...came true)

Mike McCarthy (YES)

Nick Sirianni (NO...’so close’; he won the Super Bowl instead)

Matt Eberflus (YES)

Dennis Allen (YES)

Mike Tomlin avoids the chopping block, but Arthur Smith doesn’t. (YES/NO)

 -- Faux 3.0 MVP: Joe Burrow (NO)

 -- Faux 3.0 ROY: Jayden Daniels (YES)

 -- Faux 3.0 COY: Brian Callahan (Waaayyyy NO)