We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Chicago Bears 2025 Free Agency Losses:
OT Larry Borom (Miami Dolphins)
LB Jack Sanborn (Dallas Cowboys)
OL Teven Jenkins (Cleveland Browns)
DE Jacob Martin (Washington Commanders)
LS Patrick Scales (Free Agent)
S Kevin Byard (Free Agent)
WR Velus Jones Jr. (Free Agent)
Chicago Bears 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
WR Olamide Zaccheaus (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
C Drew Dalman (3 years, $42M, $28M guaranteed)
OL Joe Thuney (Acquired via trade, 1 year, $16M, $16M guaranteed)
TE Durham Smythe (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
OL Jonah Jackson (Acquired via trade, contract not disclosed)
DT Dayo Odeyingbo (3 years, $30M, $15M guaranteed)
DT Grady Jarrett (2 years, $20M, $10M guaranteed)
LB Olasunkanmi Ogbongbemiga (2 years, $5M, $2M guaranteed)
CB Josh Blackwell (2 years, $6M, $3M guaranteed)
CB Nick McCloud (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Chicago Bears 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
TE Colston Loveland (1st Round, No. 10)
WR Luther Burden III (2nd Round, No. 39)
OT Ozzy Trapilo (2nd Round, No. 56)
DT Shemar Turner (2nd Round, No. 62)
LB Ruben Hyppolite II (4th Round, No. 132)
CB Zah Frazier (5th Round, No. 169)
G Luke Newman (6th Round, No. 195)
RB Kyle Monangai (7th Round, No. 233)
S Major Burns (UDFA)
LB Power Echols (UDFA)
WR JP Richardson (UDFA)
K Jonathan Kim (UDFA)
WR Jahdae Walker (UDFA)
LS Luke Elkin (UDFA)
DE Xavier Carlton (UDFA)
DL Gio Paez (UDFA, minicamp invite)
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New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Losses:
QB Jacoby Brissett (Free Agent)
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Released, Free Agent)
C David Andrews (Released, Retired)
DT Davon Godchaux (New Orleans Saints)
DE Deatrich Wise Jr. (Washington Commanders)
CB Jonathan Jones (Washington Commanders)
OT Chukwuma Okorafor (Released, New York Jets)
New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Signings/Additions:
QB Josh Dobbs (2 years, $8M, $3.8M guaranteed)
WR Stefon Diggs (3 years, $69M, $34.5M guaranteed)
WR Mack Hollins (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
OT Morgan Moses (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
C Garrett Bradbury (2 years, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
DT Milton Williams (4 years, $104M, $52M guaranteed)
CB Carlton Davis (3 years, $60M, $30M guaranteed)
LB Robert Spillane (3 years, $37M, $18.5M guaranteed)
LB Jack Gibbens (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
EDGE Harold Landry (3 years, $43.5M, $21.75M guaranteed)
New England Patriots 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Will Campbell (1st Round, No. 4)
RB TreVeyon Henderson (2nd Round, No. 38)
WR Kyle Williams (3rd Round, No. 69)
C Jared Wilson (3rd Round, No. 95)
S Craig Woodson (4th Round, No. 106)
DT Joshua Farmer (4th Round, No. 137)
EDGE Bradyn Swinson (5th Round, No. 146)
K Andres Borregales (6th Round, No. 182)
OT Marcus Bryant (7th Round, No. 220)
LS Julian Ashby (7th Round, No. 251)
CB Kobee Minor (7th Round, No. 257)
TE C.J. Dippre (UDFA)
DL Wilfried Pene (UDFA)
S Jordan Polk (UDFA)
WR Jeremiah Webb (UDFA)
OT Cole Birdow (UDFA)
WR Efton Chism (UDFA)
QB Ben Wooldridge (UDFA)
TE Gee Scott Jr. (UDFA)
RB Lan Larison (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
New England Off-season Grade: A-
New England is undergoing a massive revamp under Mike Vrabel. He is putting his stamp on this team, and I expect massive improvement. What area did the Patriots not improve this off-season?
They cut a bunch of expensive, aging vets and brought in multiple solid starters on defense during free agency. Landry, Spillane, Davis, and Williams will immediately add an element of toughness missing from this team. They also brought in Moses to man the right side of the line, Hollins for his size and toughness at receiver, and Bradbury to compete at center, plus a ton of depth pieces. Then in the draft they hit on several critical areas including O-line, receiver, RB, and D-line, all potential young building blocks for the future.
Free agency was used to fill holes and make them more competitive, and the draft brought a new core. That's exactly how teams should be building.
Chicago Bears Off-season Grade: A
I could quibble about the age and contracts of some of the free agents they signed/traded for, but there's no arguing the Bears got significantly better this off-season. In the span of a few days they fixed the interior of the offensive line, the most important thing they could have done. Why other teams don't get this aggressive to solve problems I'll never know. Now this doesn't mean Chicago suddenly has a great line, but it's at least respectable.
In the draft they added several more impact players in Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Frazier. That's a couple of excellent weapons for Caleb Williams along with a good starting left tackle and a very interesting corner prospect. Heck, Shemar Turner might turn into something at defensive tackle. He's certainly athletic enough. Again I don't love how high they took Loveland, but it's inarguable that he's a good player and adds something to the team.
Winner: New England Patriots
Man, this is tough. You could go with either of these and it would make total sense. But when I look at both lists it seems like to me the Patriots just got a greater volume of new respectable starters than any other team in the league. 4 new offensive linemen, 3 receivers, a running back, an edge rusher, a defensive tackle, a corner, and a linebacker. That's half a starting team. I'm not sure I can recall any team adding so many new starters in one off-season, and for that reason I have to go with the Pats.
RC’s analysis...
Chicago offseason comments:
The Bears killed it in free agency...losing little-to-nothing but then signing and trading for offensive line strength, which is SO key and the thing most every team should be doing, but don’t. 2-3 impact offensive linemen added. That alone makes this a top 1-5 offseason. But they also added Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo at DT...another critical position to bolster. Beautiful job in free agency and trade.
In the draft, they were solid...several useful players, future starters and contributors. The Bears got markedly better this offseason...but if they don’t fix Caleb, it won’t play out as genius as it really is.
New England Offseason Comments:
Looking at the Pats free agency...didn’t really lose much, name/talent-wise. And they definitely signed more talent coming in, with their big budget/CAP availability they had.
NE signed four instant starters on defense -- Carlton Davis, Milton Williams, Spillane, Landry. If Davis is as good at CB as he was last year, and for his career...teaming him with Christian Gonzalez is pretty savvy. The best CB duo in the division, and one of the best in the league perhaps? The defense is boosted.
The offense...not so much. Vrabel is ‘offensively challenged’ and he’s going for the Steelers-mindset of: boring run game and hopefully good defense. And offensive players know this, thus they couldn’t sign anyone of note...no one wants to go there if they have other options. They overspent/wasted $ on Stefon Diggs, who may not play until halfway into the season...and he did not look great last season. Mack Hollins is a good grinder WR, a mercenary not a game changer. They did add a couple useful OL upgrades, because the O-Line was so bad anything is an upgrade.
On both sides of the ball, the Pats are better in what they lost vs. gained in free agency. They got 4-5 instant starters from the draft too. The Patriots didn’t make 1-2 power/killer moves among all their dealings, but the power of this offseason was in the depth/quantity of useful or good players they got versus the marquee of ‘quality’ of top names. This is the kind of offseason they needed to have.
RC’s WINNER: New England Patriots
Neither of these teams really lost a major piece (CHI did lose Tevin Jenkins, so that was a hit)...and they both did so well in the offseason (thus they made it to the finals)...so, I wanna try something different for the final judgement...
I am going to do a draft of the top 7 most impactful players these two teams signed or drafted or traded for, regardless of cost/payroll or long-term effect...just who would I take off their roster moves for the most 2025 impact...in order of 1st to 7th choice. So, a ‘best of 7’ -- and the team that has 4 or more on the list wins it all!
*Because CHI lost OG Teven Jenkins, I will cross off OG Jonah Jackson (CHI traded for from LAR) from this list of options to draft as the offset/net neutral move for 2025.
1) OT/OG Joe Thuney, CHI = I mean, O-Line is so critical and they get an experienced three-time pro bowler the past 3 years.
2) OC Drew Dalman, CHI = A top center added (2-0 CHI)
3) CB Carlton Davis, NE = Man, the combo of Gonzalez/Davis... (2-1 CHI)
4) WR Kyle Williams, NE = Instantly a #1 WR for them (2-2 tie)
5) OG Will Campbell, NE = I’m not the biggest fan but he’s fine and at the critical OL spot (3-2 NE)
6) OT Morgan Moses, NE = goes right in as a starting RT (NE 4-2)
*Patriots get to ‘4’ and thus win the 2025 offseason tournament*
7) OC Jared Wilson, NE = I have a feeling he may start sooner rather than later in 2025
*Officially WINNER of the Tournament* The New England Patriots
Last year’s winner in our tournament was the Washington Commanders...and they went on to have the most change in wins (up) on the 2024 season. So, let’s see if the 4-win Patriots have near as a big a jump.
