Using the rosters as they are as of mid-May (version 1.0), obviously everyone is healthy in this simulation, and we run our data to the new NFL schedule to see 'what happens' (in our world) and taking the win-loss record projections right through the playoffs for an eventual title winner projection.
This will be a series -- three weeks of regular season results at a time released daily with some light commentary, up to the playoffs where we will publish a round at a time playoff results until a Super Bowl winner is declared.
In reality, when the first key injury happens to any team -- throw all these projections in the trash. But we are using this as a guide looking for over/under win total bets, especially 'unders' -- if a team's projected win total isn't close to their Vegas O/U line fully healthy…then there might be handicapping opportunity there.
Notes from Weeks 10-12...
-- Current best record in Faux 1.0 is a 3-way tie at (9-2) between the Chargers, Eagles and Bills.
-- Worst record is now held by the Saints at (1-10).
-- The (9-2) Bills now lead the AFC East by 2.5 games over Patriots (7-5).
-- The Ravens (8-3) lead the AFC North by two games over Cincy (6-5).
-- The AFC South is still weak with Houston (6-5) barely over .500 but leading the division by two games.
-- The AFC West still has the same 1-2 punch at the top with the Chargers (9-2) just ahead of Broncos (8-3)...AND here’s the real shocker: the Chiefs (5-6) are tied with the Raiders (5-6) for last.
Before you think that’s insane on KC...note that early schedule that has PHI-BAL-DET-WSH-BUF along with LAC and DEN -- 7 playoff teams from last season...five of them winning at least one playoff game last season. It’s a brutal early schedule that (in reality) either proves KC is the best team in football still or reveals their downfall slide that’s overdue.
The schedule is about to loosen up for KC, we’ll see if there is time to catch the leaders yet!
-- The Eagles (9-2) appear to be on their way to another NFC East title...leading WSH (7-4) by 2 games.
-- The Lions (8-3) are staying ahead of GB (6-5) and MIN (6-5) in the NFC North, also appearing to be on their way to another division title.
-- Tampa Bay (7-4) is trying to lock down their 5th NFC South title in a row, but the Falcons (6-5) are staying close.
-- The Rams (8-3) continue to hold the NFC West lead, but the Cardinals (7-4) are riding their easy schedule to hang tight in the race.
-- Tomorrow we’ll see the results from Weeks 13-14-15.
AFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
BUF | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
NE | …. | 7 | - | 5 | = | 0.583 |
MIA | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
NYJ | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
BAL | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
CIN | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
PIT | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
CLE | … | 2 | - | 9 | = | 0.182 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
HOU | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
IND | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
JAX | … | 3 | - | 8 | = | 0.273 |
TEN | … | 2 | - | 9 | = | 0.182 |
=============== | ||||||
AFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
LAC | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
DEN | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
KC | …. | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
LV | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC East | W | L | PCT | |||
PHI | … | 9 | - | 2 | = | 0.818 |
WSH | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
DAL | … | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
NYG | … | 3 | - | 9 | = | 0.250 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC North | W | L | PCT | |||
DET | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
GB | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
MIN | …. | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
CHI | … | 4 | - | 7 | = | 0.364 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC South | W | L | PCT | |||
TB | …. | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
ATL | … | 6 | - | 5 | = | 0.545 |
CAR | … | 4 | - | 8 | = | 0.333 |
NO | …. | 1 | - | 10 | = | 0.091 |
=============== | ||||||
NFC West | W | L | PCT | |||
LAR | … | 8 | - | 3 | = | 0.727 |
ARI | … | 7 | - | 4 | = | 0.636 |
SEA | …. | 5 | - | 6 | = | 0.455 |
SF | … | 4 | - | 8 | = | 0.333 |