We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 Free Agency Losses:
C Robert Hainsey (Jacksonville Jaguars)
OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Cleveland Browns)
T Justin Skule (Minnesota Vikings)
ILB K.J. Britt (Miami Dolphins)
CB Tavierre Thomas (Minnesota Vikings)
G Royce Newman (Arizona Cardinals)
LB J.J. Russell (Free Agent)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
G Ben Bredeson (3 years, $22M, $12M guaranteed)
OLB Haason Reddick (1 year, $14M, $12M guaranteed)
CB Bryce Hall (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
S Kaevon Merriweather (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DL C.J. Brewer (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
CB Kindle Vildor (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
P Riley Dixon (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
WR Emeka Egbuka (1st Round, No. 19)
CB Benjamin Morrison (2nd Round, No. 50)
CB Jacob Parrish (3rd Round, No. 84)
OLB David Walker (4th Round, No. 121)
DL Elijah Roberts (5th Round, No. 157)
WR Tez Johnson (7th Round, No. 235)
S Shilo Sanders (UDFA)
S J.J. Roberts (UDFA)
DT Desmond Watson (UDFA)
WR Will Sheppard (UDFA)
C Jake Majors (UDFA)
T Ben Chukwuma (UDFA)
C Ben Scott (UDFA)
WR Garrett Greene (UDFA)
QB Connor Bazelak (UDFA)
RB Josh Williams (UDFA)
LB John Bullock (UDFA)
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Carolina Panthers 2025 Free Agency Losses:
S Xavier Woods (Tennessee Titans)
P Johnny Hekker (Tennessee Titans)
RB Miles Sanders (Free Agent)
CB C.J. Henderson (Free Agent)
LB Shaq Thompson (Free Agent)
DL Jadeveon Clowney (Free Agent)
Carolina Panthers 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
S Tre’von Moehrig (3 years, $51M, $25.5M guaranteed)
EDGE Patrick Jones II (2 years, $20M, $10M guaranteed)
RB Rico Dowdle (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
DT Bobby Brown III (2 years, $10.5M, $5M guaranteed)
WR Alec Chisena (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
P Sam Martin (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
K Matthew Wright (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
WR Hunter Renfrow (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Carolina Panthers 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
WR Tetairoa McMillan (1st Round, No. 8)
EDGE Nic Scourton (2nd Round, No. 40)
EDGE Princely Umanmielen (3rd Round, No. 71)
RB Trevor Etienne (4th Round, No. 102)
S Josh Ransom (4th Round, No. 122)
DT Cam Jackson (5th Round, No. 140)
TE Mitchell Evans (5th Round, No. 163)
WR Jimmy Horn Jr. (6th Round, No. 208)
QB Ethan Garbers (UDFA)
WR Jacolby George (UDFA)
S Aaron Jones (UDFA)
S Jalen Williams (UDFA)
OL Andrew Raym (UDFA)
WR Sam Pinckney (UDFA)
CB Willie Drew (UDFA)
DT Popo Aumavae (UDFA)
LB Donovan Jennings (UDFA)
WR Devin Carter (UDFA)
CB Bayron Matos (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
Carolina Panthers Off-season Grade: C-
Carolina has been a bottom-feeder for several years, so it would be very difficult for them not to at least stumble into some improvement at some point. They let a few underperformers go this year, and signed a few decent enough players, nothing special though.
The draft landed them the best receiver available in McMillan who should be a nice boost for the offense. After that though they missed a golden opportunity to add some premium talent. Scourton and Umanmielen each have things going for them as edge rushers, but neither stands out in any particular way and Umanmielen has several concerning character issues that could hold him back. Why the team spent a 4th round pick on Trevor Etienne when they have so many holes on the roster and several good RBs is beyond me.
Overall they certainly improved, but it could have been much, much better than it was. They'll be relying on Dave Canales to coach this team up once again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Off-season Grade: B-
Tampa had a relatively quiet free agency period with their only major move in or out being the addition of Haason Reddick. If they get a full, motivated season out of him that will be a win. If they don't, oh well, it's a 1-year contract. He could/should be a big boost to their pass rush. Anthony Walker is a pretty good addition at inside linebacker as well.
Many people didn't see the point of the team drafting Emeka Egbuka, but it makes total sense. First, he's just a good player with excellent character. He'll be with the team for 10+ years and should be a captain sooner rather than later. Second, Chris Godwin is coming off another major injury and Mike Evans is probably playing his last year. Jalen McMillan is just ok. The cupboard was essentially bare outside that. Egbuka is a phenomenal 3rd receiver this year as Tampa tries to make a Superbowl push, he's insurance in case of an injury to one of the two stars, and he's the future #1.
After Egbuka, Tampa stacked back-to-back corners to restock the secondary, and Benjamin Morrison is one of my favorites from this class when healthy. He's not the most athletic but boy is he smooth and competitive. Parrish is very interesting as well and they should make a nice tandem. It wasn't a super splashy off-season for Tampa, but they definitely got better and are hoping to make a run at a title this year.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is close. Carolina added a couple of ok defensive tackles in free agency and probably upgraded slightly at safety with Tre'von Moehrig. Patrick Jones for Clowney is basically a flip.
The draft brought Tetairoa McMillan, a favorite of mine and RC's, but the edge rushers weren't great. Tampa rented Haason Reddick and drafted Egbuka and Benjamin Morrison. I could see this going either way honestly and I wouldn't be upset.
RC’s analysis...
Tampa Bay offseason comments:
The Bucs really didn’t lose anything in free agency of note. OC Hainsey was a mild hit to the O-Line, but they added OG Bredeson to kinda even it out. Outside of that, they spent money on Haason Reddick, which is a waste of money to me...but fine, he’s there now...he’ll help 2025.
Not the greatest draft for Tampa. Egbuka is solid but not a 1st-rounder, to me. They drafted a 1st-round human but not a 1st-round WR. But regardless, Egbuka will help/not hurt 2025. Benjamin Morrison is my favorite pick by them. Day three of the draft may be an issue unless Elijah Roberts comes through like he might be able to.
Great UDFA period. I think Shilo Sanders is a possible contributor, but I think SAF J.J. Roberts was a top 5 SAF talent and they got him for free, essentially. I like the gamble on 450+ pounder DT Desmond Watson as well.
Carolina offseason comments:
Nothing major lost this offseason...X. Woods and Clowney are functional but not that important. They signed Tre’von Moehrig to replace Woods, which is an upgrade at SAF. Patrick Jones was a sneaky D-Line signee from the Vikings as was Bobby Brown a decent signing away from the Rams. The Panthers used free agency to improve this offseason.
Carolina got arguably the best player in the draft in Tet McMillan, but mild prospects after that and all but wasted picks in Evans and Horn.
RC’s WINNER: Carolina Panthers
In free agency, Carolina upgraded slightly/nicely at SAF and especially upgraded on the D-Line. In the draft, Carolina made a huge upgrade with my WR love Tetairoa McMillan...a #1 WR out of the chute, right away, is big for a team’s offseason. Nothing but gains from the Carolina offseason.
Tampa Bay’s real free agency ‘net’ was Hasson Reddick...a ‘shoulder shrug’ pass rusher. In the draft, they added useful talents but maybe not the biggest 2025 helpers, as they are more future/2026+ helpers. One of CB Benjamin Morrison or Jacob Parrish might make an instant impact, but Egbuka won’t really change the game and David Walker is a hopeful not instant impact, in theory.
If this were a 2026 and beyond decision, I’d lean towards Tampa Bay. But judging for 2025 impact only -- I go with Carolina.
We have a split decision between Ross and I, and I feel like we’re both in the same boat of ‘it’s close’/’’could go either way’. I’ll decide it by the best of 3 contest...the three best players for 2025 impact either team got, and I’ll do it in a draft...and whichever team has two of the 3 moves on.
Biggest impact moves:
1) WR Tetairoa McMillan, CAR
2) CB Benjamin Morrison, TB
3) CB Jacob Parrish, TB
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Tampa Bay moves on to the NFC Playoffs
Offseason 25 Playoff matchups in Round 3, so far:
NYG v. CHI
CLE v. NE
JAX v. DEN
TB v. ??
