We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Denver Broncos 2025 Free Agency Losses:
RB Javonte Williams (Dallas Cowboys)
ILB Cody Barton (Tennessee Titans)
QB Zach Wilson (Miami Dolphins)
DB Tremon Smith (Houston Texans)
P Riley Dixon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Denver Broncos 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
LB Dre Greenlaw (3 years, $30M, $15M guaranteed)
S Talanoa Hufanga (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
WR Trent Sherfield (2 years, $6M, $3M guaranteed)
TE Evan Engram (2 years, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
ILB Justin Strnad (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
QB Jarrett Stidham (2 years, $8M, $4M guaranteed)
OT Matt Peart (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LS Mitchell Fraboni (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DL D.J. Jones (3 years, $15M, $7.5M guaranteed)
Denver Broncos 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
CB Jahdae Barron (1st Round, No. 20)
RB RJ Harvey (2nd Round, No. 60)
WR Pat Bryant (3rd Round, No. 74)
EDGE Sai’vion Jones (3rd Round, No. 101)
EDGE Que Robinson (4th Round, No. 134)
P Jeremy Crawshaw (6th Round, No. 216)
TE Caleb Lohner (7th Round, No. 252)
LB J.B. Brown (UDFA)
EDGE Johnny Walker Jr. (UDFA)
G Xavier Truss (UDFA)
C Nick Michalski (UDFA)
OT Jack Webb (UDFA)
C Eli Cox (UDFA)
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Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Free Agency Losses:
WR DeAndre Hopkins (Baltimore Ravens)
OT D.J. Humphries (Free Agent)
G Joe Thuney (Chicago Bears)
CB Jaylen Watson (Free Agent)
S Justin Reid (New Orleans Saints)
LB Willie Gay Jr. (New Orleans Saints)
LB Drue Tranquill (Free Agent)
Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
RB Elijah Mitchell (1 year, $3.5M, $1.5M guaranteed)
QB Gardner Minshew (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
OT D.J. Moore (2 years, $30M, $15M guaranteed)
CB Kristian Fulton (2 years, $20M, $10M guaranteed)
DT Jerry Tillery (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LS James Winchester (1 year, $1.65M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Josh Simmons (1st Round, No. 32)
DT Omarr Norman-Lott (2nd Round, No. 63)
DE Ashton Gillotte (3rd Round, No. 66)
CB Nohl Williams (3rd Round, No. 85)
WR Jalen Royals (4th Round, No. 133)
LB Jeffrey Bassa (5th Round, No. 156)
RB Brashard Smith (7th Round, No. 228)
LB Elijhah Badger (UDFA)
LB Andrew George (UDFA)
DT Reggie Izzard (UDFA)
CB Ryan Knowles (UDFA)
WR Brandon Lockhart (UDFA)
S J.J. Miller (UDFA)
OT Faion Pole (UDFA)
CB Keisean Smith (UDFA)
OL Brandon Cooper (UDFA)
CB Jaden Covington (UDFA)
P Matthew Czaplicki (UDFA)
WR Nick Dalena (UDFA)
S Noa Pola-Gates (UDFA)
QB Paxton DeLaurent (UDFA)
CB Cam Watts (UDFA)
LB Cooper McDonald (UDFA)
LB Corey Flagg Jr. (UDFA)
RB Qualan Jones (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
Kansas City Chiefs Off-season Grade: B
I love what the Chiefs pulled off here. In a year where a lot of factors were stacking up against them returning to the AFC championship and/or Superbowl, the Chiefs went and knocked the off-season out of the park. It would be easy for them to get complacent due to their success, but this team is never caught standing still. They are always looking to improve. They released a bunch of good players but players with big contracts that were starting to age, looking to get younger and cheaper in the process.
Many organizations wouldn't have the guts to get rid of a player the caliber of Joe Thuney, but KC rightly assumes they can replace most of his production for a fraction of the cost. Even if it's a slight downgrade, the move is worth it overall because they can use the money to get better elsewhere. Most of that money went to upgrading left tackle with Jaylon Moore. We'll see how well that works out, but it's a smart gamble. Tillery is good depth at defensive tackle, Fulton is a solid starter at corner, Mitchell is insurance for Pacheco and Hunt, and very quietly Minshew is a high caliber backup QB, one of the most underrated and overlooked positions in football. If something were to happen to Mahomes, KC can get by for a few games now.
To all of that they added one of the most interesting drafts. KC got perhaps the best left tackle, Simmons, although he probably needs a year to finish recovering from his injury. Norman-Lott and Gillotte (that's a lot of Lott) help upgrade the pass rush. Williams and Bassa should be upgrades in coverage. Royals was a steal at his spot and a future starting slot receiver. And Brashard Smith adds an element of speed missing from the RB room. Overall, just a very, very smart and solid group of signings and picks.
Denver Broncos Off-season Grade: B-
The tale of two cities...Denver had arguably the best free agency period of any team in the league, but their draft left a lot to be desired from my perspective. The Broncos got three massive upgrades in free agency, stealing both Greenlaw and Hufanga from the 49ers and picking up Engram from the Jaguars.
The draft on the other hand...Barron is tough and athletic, but is he really a big upgrade on Ja'Quan McMillian? RJ Harvey is respectable, but I feel like guys with his skill set can be had later in the draft. Again, is he a big upgrade over the very similar Jaleel McLaughlin? Both guys play the Darren Sproles 3rd down back role and not much else. And then you have Pat Bryant who almost nobody in the media even knew before Denver took him, and now they are all running to proclaim him the next Michael Thomas. Why? Because Sean Payton picked him so he must be good. I don't see it. Bryant reminds me a lot more of Tre'Quan Smith than Michael Thomas, and Sean Payton picked him too. Payton is good, but every player he takes is not magically a borderline Hall of Famer.
I'm giving Denver a good grade overall because they did improve by quite a bit, but I feel like this easily could have been an A or A+ with a better draft. Missed opportunity.
Winner: Denver Broncos
If I was grading this overall and including the long-term picture, I'd probably take KC here. But given that this is 2025 only improvement we're looking at, I'm going with Denver. They had a much, much better free agency and those are very successful veteran players we already know are good. The KC rookies may or may not pan out and Simmons, their top prospect, might not even play year one.
RC’s analysis...
Denver offseason comments:
No real losses for the Broncos in free agency...they let inconsequential players walk, smartly so. But then in replacement they signed several free agent 2025 impact players -- Engram, Hufanga, Greenlaw. Three brilliant signings if you’re focused on 2025. A huge upgrade in net impact talent in free agency.
In the draft...it was ‘OK’. A bit of a letdown. Jahdae Barron is fine. RJ Harvey helps. Then the rest of the draft is OK but mostly reaches, from my vantage point.
Overall, Denver added to/aided the 2025 cause nicely...but mostly from free agency, which is hard to do...but they did it.
Kansas City offseason comments:
The Chiefs took a big hit in the offseason when they traded away Joe Thuney to the Bears, but they did OK in free agency to improve from there...signing OT Jaylon Moore, solid CB Kristain Fulton, and upgrading backup QB in Gardner Minshew.
And then KC had a really nice draft. Josh Simmons was an incredible value in the 1ast-round. Ashton Gillotte was one of our top value prospects in this draft. Lott-Royals-Nohl Williams-Brashard Smith can all contribute in 2025.
RC’s WINNER: Denver Broncos
KC lost two key starters in free agency/trade, but then assed back two starters signed. ‘Net’ even in free agency, roughly. Probably a slight downgrade in free agency. A very good draft yielded 2-4 potential starters for 2025, but if Josh Simmons injury holds him out into the season...that’s a big blow in this 2025-only analysis.
All Denver’s moves were ‘haymakers’ thrown at 2025...they killed it in ‘2025 only’ efforts. They didn’t lose anything of note in free agency, but they did add three instant, Pro Bowl level starters -- Greenlaw-Hufanga-Engram. Then in the draft they added a starting CB (Barron) and starting RB (RJ Harvey). Big improvements...no losses. Denver is going to be hard to beat in this tournament.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Denver moves on to the AFC Playoffs
Offseason 25 Playoff matchups in Round 3, so far:
NYG v. CHI
CLE v. NE
JAX v. DEN
