We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Free Agency Losses:
CB Ronald Darby (Houston Texans)
S Andre Cisco (New York Jets)
C Mitch Morse (Retired)
RG Brandon Scherff (Free Agent)
TE Evan Engram (Denver Broncos)
TE Luke Farrell (San Francisco 49ers)
RB D’Ernest Johnson (Free Agent)
WR Christian Kirk (Houston Texans, via trade)
WR Devin Duvernay (Free Agent)
OG Blake Hance (Tennessee Titans)
QB Mac Jones (San Francisco 49ers)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
CB Jourdan Lewis (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
C Robert Hainsey (2 years, $12M, $6M guaranteed)
WR Dyami Brown (1 year, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
OT Chuma Edoga (2 years, $8M, $4M guaranteed)
TE Johnny Mundt (2 years, $6M, $3M guaranteed)
TE Chris Long (2 years, $5M, $2M guaranteed)
S Eric Murray (1 year, $5M, $2M guaranteed)
RG Patrick Mekari (3 years, $18M, $9M guaranteed)
QB Nick Mullens (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
WR/CB Travis Hunter (1st Round, No. 2)
S Caleb Ransaw (3rd Round, No. 88)
OL Wyatt Milum (3rd Round, No. 89)
RB Bhayshul Tuten (4th Round, No. 104)
LB Jack Kiser (4th Round, No. 107)
LB Jalen McLeod (6th Round, No. 194)
S Rayuan Lane III (6th Round, No. 200)
C Jonah Monheim (7th Round, No. 221)
RB LeQuint Allen Jr. (7th Round, No. 236)
DE Ethan Downs (UDFA)
DB Doneiko Slaughter (UDFA)
TE Patrick Herbert (UDFA)
DE Danny Striggow (UDFA)
S Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig (UDFA)
QB Seth Henigan (UDFA)
DL Eli Mostaert (UDFA)
G Sal Wormley (UDFA)
DL B.J. Green II (UDFA)
WR J.J. Jones (UDFA)
WR Quincy Skinner Jr. (UDFA)
DL Simeon Barrow Jr. (UDFA)
DB Daryl Porter Jr. (UDFA)
DB Mike Smith Jr. (UDFA)
EDGE Johnny Walker Jr. (UDFA)
DL Keith Cooper Jr. (UDFA)
OL J.J. Lippe (UDFA)
DB Melvin Smith Jr. (UDFA)
DL Anthony Booker Jr. (UDFA)
WR Theo Wease Jr. (UDFA)
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Houston Texans 2025 Free Agency Losses:
LT Laremy Tunsil (Washington Commanders)
G Kenyon Green (Philadelphia Eagles)
S Eric Murray (Jacksonville Jaguars)
WR Stefon Diggs (New England Patriots)
LB Neville Hewitt (Free Agent)
CB Ronald Darby (Free Agent)
CB D’Angelo Ross (Free Agent)
Houston Texans 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions: OT Cam Robinson (1 year, $14.5M, $7M guaranteed)
G Laken Tomlinson (1 year, $4.25M, $2M guaranteed)
DT Sheldon Rankins (2 years, $15M, $7.5M guaranteed)
DT Mario Edwards Jr. (2 years, $9.5M, $4M guaranteed)
DE Derek Barnett (1 year, $4M, $2M guaranteed)
DE Darrell Taylor (1 year, $3.5M, $1.5M guaranteed)
DE Casey Toohill (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LB Nick Niemann (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LB E.J. Speed (2 years, $6M, $3M guaranteed)
CB Tremon Smith (2 years, $7.5M, $4.5M guaranteed)
WR Braxton Berrios (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
WR Christian Kirk (Acquired via trade, contract not disclosed)
WR Justin Watson (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
OT Trent Brown (1 year, $5M, $2M guaranteed)
S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Acquired via trade, 2 years, $12M, $6M guaranteed)
Houston Texans 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents: WR Jayden Higgins (2nd Round, No. 34)
OT Aireontae Ersery (2nd Round, No. 48)
WR Jaylin Noel (3rd Round, No. 79)
CB Jaylin Smith (3rd Round, No. 97)
RB Woody Marks (4th Round, No. 116)
S Jaylen Reed (6th Round, No. 187)
QB Graham Mertz (6th Round, No. 197)
DT Kyonte Hamilton (7th Round, No. 224)
TE Luke Lachey (7th Round, No. 255)
WR Daniel Jackson (UDFA)
C Eli Cox (UDFA)
LS Austin Brinkman (UDFA)
LB KC Ossai (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
Jacksonville Jaguars Off-season Grade: B+
Lots of really sharp moves by the new GM James Gladstone who continues to impress me. Much like the Bears, Jacksonville moved quickly to completely revamp their interior O-Line and I think they got comparable improvement and for a much lower cost than Chicago managed, only they did it with lesser names so the media doesn't care. They also added one of the best slot corners in the game, Jourdan Lewis, and the ascending Dyami Brown to add more speed to the offense. A very solid group of additions. On the other side their only real notable losses were Andre Cisco who was very inconsistent, Evan Engram who was on the wrong side of 30, and Christian Kirk who is massively overrated. The single greatest move of the entire off-season was probably Gladstone somehow convincing a division rival to actually give them a draft pick for Kirk when he was destined to be cut anyways.
Then the draft saw Gladstone make the very bold move to trade up for Travis Hunter and pick up several other useful players in Ransaw, Milum, Tuten, and Kiser. This was a fantastic start for the young GM and I'm excited to see what he does in the future.
Houston Texans Off-season Grade: B+
Tennessee could take lessons from Caserio and the Texans. This is how you handle the off-season. The Texans identified their two key problems from 2024, offensive line and receiver, and they attacked the problem. Now trading away their "best" offensive lineman from an already shaky group might not sound smart to most people, but Tunsil was a walking penalty and was infecting the locker room with his terrible attitude. This is addition by subtraction. Then they went and added a lot of good depth, and perhaps a couple veteran starters, on cheap 1-year deals. There are too many potentially useful ones to list here, but almost all of them, save for the goofy WR deals, were extremely smart.
Having patched the offensive line for the short term, Caserio turned his attention to the WR room in the draft and nailed it by grabbing both of the super athletic Iowa St kids, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, along with a very athletic developmental (in my opinion) tackle in Ersery. The draft tailed off after that, but those three alone are better than most teams managed. Overall, this was a highly impressive job by Houston and might have them poised to rebound in 2025 and make a deep playoff run.
WINNER: Jacksonville Jaguars
I applaud both of these GMs. So many smart, cheap signings by both in free agency and then solid drafts to back it up. At the end of the day though, I think Jacksonville did more to improve for 2025 specifically. They addressed the offensive line with clear upgrades, added Jourdan Lewis, upgraded to Dyami Brown from Christian Kirk (ironically Houston's most bone-headed move), and of course the big swing for Travis Hunter. Houston added a lot of depth and shuffled some things around, but the Jaguars clearly got better at multiple spots.
RC’s analysis...
Jacksonville offseason comments:
The only thing the Jags lost in free agency that hurts them for 2025 is Evan Engram. I get the big picture move, but this is a step back for judging just 2025 impacts.
They brought in, via free agency, a lot of decent/lesser-known/lauded player moves...which is what free agency should be for healthy teams or rosters that need an enema (JAX is in the enema state). I see the logic in many of their subtle moves...their free agency power was in the overall quantity not one major quality/blows you away big ticket item headline move...they saved that splash move for the draft.
You know I loved the Travis Hunter trade...a brilliant trade, an instant impact for 2025. But they also got several more quality pieces in the draft to go-with. Milum at OL could start right away or just be a great rotational piece for 2025, then starting in 2026.
Houston offseason comments:
Houston attacked the offseason trying to clean up its biggest problem -- the O-Line. They did ditch ‘names’ from the past (Tunsil, Green), but this was a terrible O-Line, so how big a loss could they be? They brought in Cam Robinson, Trent Brown and Laken Tomlinson through free agency...decent but risky.
Aside from the O-Line churn in free agency, the Texans did add several smart, smaller pieces to the defense. Defensive-minded/background head coaches load up on defense...that’s just the way it is. And they did add some smart pieces for depth and rotation, to an already hopeful/good defense.
In the draft, they really did great day one (trades) and day two (picks)...got a nice OL prospect (Ersery) and two great WR prospects Higgins-Noel. Day three of the draft was more riffraff but thumbs up on a great day two.
RC’s WINNER: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags really, subtly, upgraded their offensive line signing Hainsey and Mekari in free agency and drafting Wyatt Milum. Adding Travis Hunter and Jourdan Lewis bolsters their secondary...and receiver ranks. All the Jags really lost for 2025 impact was Evan Engram. Getting better on the O-Line and secondary was much needed and supersedes losing Engram.
The Texans also needed to get better on the O-Line and I don’t think they took the task as seriously/effectively as Jacksonville...they made moves but I don’t know if they really gained all that much. Houston added a bunch of defensive bodies/depth, but I don’t know that it beats what the Jags did adding Hunter/Lewis to the secondary.
Houston had a solid offseason, but Jacksonville just had a better one...especially for 2025 improvement/impact.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Jacksonville moves on to the AFC Playoffs
Offseason 25 Playoff matchups coming up in Round 3, so far:
NYG v. CHI
CLE v. NE
JAX v. ???
