We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Losses:
QB Jacoby Brissett (Free Agent)
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Released, Free Agent)
C David Andrews (Released, Retired)
DT Davon Godchaux (New Orleans Saints)
DE Deatrich Wise Jr. (Washington Commanders)
CB Jonathan Jones (Washington Commanders)
OT Chukwuma Okorafor (Released, New York Jets)
New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Signings/Additions:
QB Josh Dobbs (2 years, $8M, $3.8M guaranteed)
WR Stefon Diggs (3 years, $69M, $34.5M guaranteed)
WR Mack Hollins (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
OT Morgan Moses (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
C Garrett Bradbury (2 years, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
DT Milton Williams (4 years, $104M, $52M guaranteed)
CB Carlton Davis (3 years, $60M, $30M guaranteed)
LB Robert Spillane (3 years, $37M, $18.5M guaranteed)
LB Jack Gibbens (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
EDGE Harold Landry (3 years, $43.5M, $21.75M guaranteed)
New England Patriots 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Will Campbell (1st Round, No. 4)
RB TreVeyon Henderson (2nd Round, No. 38)
WR Kyle Williams (3rd Round, No. 69)
C Jared Wilson (3rd Round, No. 95)
S Craig Woodson (4th Round, No. 106)
DT Joshua Farmer (4th Round, No. 137)
EDGE Bradyn Swinson (5th Round, No. 146)
K Andres Borregales (6th Round, No. 182)
OT Marcus Bryant (7th Round, No. 220)
LS Julian Ashby (7th Round, No. 251)
CB Kobee Minor (7th Round, No. 257)
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TE C.J. Dippre (UDFA)
DL Wilfried Pene (UDFA)
S Jordan Polk (UDFA)
WR Jeremiah Webb (UDFA)
OT Cole Birdow (UDFA)
WR Efton Chism (UDFA)
QB Ben Wooldridge (UDFA)
TE Gee Scott Jr. (UDFA)
RB Lan Larison (UDFA)
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Miami Dolphins 2025 Free Agency Losses:
QB Tyler Huntley (Free Agent)
OT Kendall Lamm (Free Agent)
G Isaiah Wynn (Free Agent)
WR Braxton Berrios (Houston Texans)
WR River Cracraft (Free Agent)
TE Jack Stoll (Free Agent)
DT Calais Campbell (New England Patriots)
OT Terron Armstead (Retired)
RB Raheem Mostert (Free Agent)
CB Siran Neal (San Francisco 49ers)
DT Da’Shawn Hand (Free Agent)
Miami Dolphins 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
LB K.J. Britt (1 year, $3M, $1M guaranteed)
TE Pharaoh Brown (1 year, $3.5M, $1.5M guaranteed)
P Ryan Stonehouse (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LB Willie Gay Jr. (1 year, $5M, $2.5M guaranteed)
CB Artie Burns (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DT Benito Jones (1 year, $2.5M, $0.75M guaranteed)
QB Zach Wilson (1 year, $4.5M, $2M guaranteed)
RB Alexander Mattison (1 year, $3M, $1M guaranteed)
G James Daniels (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
LB Tyrel Dodson (2 years, $10M, $4M guaranteed)
S Ifeatu Melifonwu (1 year, $4M, $1.5M guaranteed)
S Ashtyn Davis (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (2 years, $6.5M, $3.2M guaranteed)
Miami Dolphins 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
DT Kenneth Grant (1st Round, No. 21)
G Jonah Savaiinaea (2nd Round, No. 44)
RB Ollie Gordon (4th Round, No. 119)
S Andrew Trader (5th Round, No. 155)
QB Quinn Ewers (7th Round, No. 229)
T Ted Kushi (UDFA)
S John Saunders Jr. (UDFA)
DT Alex Huntley (UDFA)
G Addison West (UDFA)
WR A.J. Henning (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs analysis...
Miami Dolphins Off-season Grade: D
The big loss for Miami was Armstead, but they were somewhat prepared for that as they drafted Patrick Paul in the 2nd round last year. Whether Paul can successfully replace Armstead is a whole other matter. Outside of that the Dolphins didn't lose much of note, but they didn't add much either. There were a lot of bodies changing places but not much impact one way or another. At least all the contracts they signed were short and cheap. Maybe they got slightly better with some depth but it's negligible.
In the draft they added the underrated Kenneth Grant in the 1st round at defensive tackle, a dire need considering the state of their line and Jonah Savaiinaea at guard in the 2nd, another dire need. Savaiinaea was a strange pick from a scheme standpoint, but at least they attempted to help the line. The rest of their picks didn't add anything of note, and their secondary looks pretty bad even without the obvious Jalen Ramsey trade that's coming. Miami is sinking fast and could bottom out in 2025.
New England Off-season Grade: A-
New England is undergoing a massive revamp under Mike Vrabel. He is putting his stamp on this team, and I expect massive improvement. What area did the Patriots not improve this off-season?
They cut a bunch of expensive, aging vets and brought in multiple solid starters on defense during free agency. Landry, Spillane, Davis, and Williams will immediately add an element of toughness missing from this team. They also brought in Moses to man the right side of the line, Hollins for his size and toughness at receiver, and Bradbury to compete at center, plus a ton of depth pieces. Then in the draft they hit on several critical areas including O-line, receiver, RB, and D-line, all potential young building blocks for the future.
Free agency was used to fill holes and make them more competitive, and the draft brought a new core. That's exactly how teams should be building.
Ross’s Winner: New England Patriots
Nothing much really needs to be said here. Miami got a couple of decent rookies in Grant and Savaiinaeaa (I'm coming around on their offensive line fix), and I would probably give them a bit better grade if I redid this -- but it wasn't close to the massive influx of talent that New England added. The Patriots nabbed multiple new starters across the board, mostly on defense in free agency, but the draft brought them a new left tackle, RB, and receiver as well. We'll see how much it impacts their 2025, but on paper they are massively improved.
RC Analysis...
Miami offseason comments: Miami lost three locker room pillars in free agency (Calais, Mostert, Armstead). Huge losses on the field and in the locker room with Calais and Armstead...especially Armstead (Mostert not so big an on-field loss). And in their places, I don’t see anything of note that Miami added to improve their team. They have, arguably, the worst GM in all of the NFL...and this free agent class is proof that he is pretty clueless.
In the draft they did get a nice Kenneth Grant and a solid Jonah Savaiinaea...but not enough to offset their key losses and deep needs for their team.
New England Offseason Comments:
Looking at the Pats free agency...didn’t really lose much, name/talent-wise. And they definitely signed more talent coming in, with their big budget/CAP availability they had.
NE signed four instant starters on defense -- Carlton Davis, Milton Williams, Spillane, Landry. If Davis is as good at CB as he was last year, and for his career...teaming him with Christian Gonzalez is pretty savvy. The best CB duo in the division, and one of the best in the league perhaps? The defense is boosted.
The offense...not so much. Vrabel is ‘offensively challenged’ and he’s going for the Steelers-mindset of: boring run game and hopefully good defense. And offensive players know this, thus they couldn’t sign anyone of note...no one wants to go there if they have other options. They overspent/wasted $ on Stefon Diggs, who may not play until halfway into the season...and he did not look great last season. Mack Hollins is a good grinder WR, a mercenary not a game changer. They did add a couple useful OL upgrades, because the O-Line was so bad anything is an upgrade.
On both sides of the ball, the Pats are better in what they lost vs. gained in free agency. They got 4-5 instant starters from the draft too. The Patriots didn’t make 1-2 power/killer moves among all their dealings, but the power of this offseason was in the depth/quantity of useful or good players they got versus the marquee of ‘quality’ of top names. This is the kind of offseason they needed to have.
RC’s WINNER: New England Patriots
As I look at this matchup, it strikes me just how much the contrast of Miami jettisoning/losing good players but as important as their talent was their locker room value. As Miami loses ‘culture’...the Patriots dove head first into ‘culture’ and brought in a ton of talented players who are also ‘locker room guys’.
What the Patriots did this offseason just stands out more and more, the more that I look at it. I’m just not a ‘Vrabel guy’ right now, so I’m wary.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* New England moves on to the AFC Playoffs
