We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Free Agency Losses:
LB Robert Spillane (Free Agent)
S Tre’von Moehrig (Carolina Panthers)
CB Nate Hobbs (Green Bay Packers)
S Marcus Epps (New England Patriots)
TE Harrison Bryant (Philadelphia Eagles)
LB Divine Deablo (Atlanta Falcons)
RB Ameer Abdullah (Free Agent)
RB Alexander Mattison (Free Agent)
OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (Free Agent)
Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
QB Geno Smith (2 years, $85.5M, $40M guaranteed)
RB Raheem Mostert (1 year, $2.1M, $1M guaranteed)
CB Eric Stokes (1 year, $4M, $2M guaranteed)
G Alex Cappa (2 years, $11.2M, $5M guaranteed)
CB Nate Holmes (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
S Jeremy Chinn (2 years, $16M, $12M guaranteed)
OLB Elandon Roberts (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
RB Ashton Jeanty (1st Round, No. 58)
WR Jack Bech (2nd Round, No. 39)
CB Darien Porter (3rd Round, No. 70)
G Caleb Rogers (3rd Round, No. 90)
OL Charles Grant (3rd Round, No. 92)
WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (4th Round, No. 105)
DT Tonka Hemingway (4th Round, No. 125)
DT J.J. Pegues (5th Round, No. 145)
QB Tommy Mellott (7th Round, No. 213)
QB Cam Miller (7th Round, No. 215)
LB Cody Lindenberg (7th Round, No. 222)
EDGE Jah Joyner (UDFA)
LB Matt Jones (UDFA)
DL Treven Ma’ae (UDFA)
CB Mello Dotson (UDFA)
WR Quincy Skinner Jr. (UDFA)
DL Simeon Barrow Jr. (UDFA)
DB Daryl Porter Jr. (UDFA)
DB Mike Smith Jr. (UDFA)
EDGE Johnny Walker Jr. (UDFA)
DL Keith Cooper Jr. (UDFA)
OL J.J. Lippe (UDFA)
WR J.J. Jones (UDFA)
DB Melvin Smith Jr. (UDFA)
DL Anthony Booker Jr. (UDFA)
QB D.J. Uiagalelei (UDFA)
WR Theo Wease Jr. (UDFA)
DB John Saunders Jr. (UDFA)
TE Gee Scott Jr. (UDFA)
WR Antwane Wells Jr. (UDFA)
DE T.J. Jackson (UDFA)
NT J.R. Singleton (UDFA)
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Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Free Agency Losses:
WR DeAndre Hopkins (Baltimore Ravens)
OT D.J. Humphries (Free Agent)
G Joe Thuney (Chicago Bears)
CB Jaylen Watson (Free Agent)
S Justin Reid (New Orleans Saints)
LB Willie Gay Jr. (New Orleans Saints)
LB Drue Tranquill (Free Agent)
Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
RB Elijah Mitchell (1 year, $3.5M, $1.5M guaranteed)
QB Gardner Minshew (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
OT D.J. Moore (2 years, $30M, $15M guaranteed)
CB Kristian Fulton (2 years, $20M, $10M guaranteed)
DT Jerry Tillery (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LS James Winchester (1 year, $1.65M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Kansas City Chiefs 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Josh Simmons (1st Round, No. 32)
DT Omarr Norman-Lott (2nd Round, No. 63)
DE Ashton Gillotte (3rd Round, No. 66)
CB Nohl Williams (3rd Round, No. 85)
WR Jalen Royals (4th Round, No. 133)
LB Jeffrey Bassa (5th Round, No. 156)
RB Brashard Smith (7th Round, No. 228)
LB Elijhah Badger (UDFA)
LB Andrew George (UDFA)
DT Reggie Izzard (UDFA)
CB Ryan Knowles (UDFA)
WR Brandon Lockhart (UDFA)
S J.J. Miller (UDFA)
OT Faion Pole (UDFA)
CB Keisean Smith (UDFA)
OL Brandon Cooper (UDFA)
CB Jaden Covington (UDFA)
P Matthew Czaplicki (UDFA)
WR Nick Dalena (UDFA)
S Noa Pola-Gates (UDFA)
QB Paxton DeLaurent (UDFA)
CB Cam Watts (UDFA)
LB Cooper McDonald (UDFA)
LB Corey Flagg Jr. (UDFA)
RB Qualan Jones (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
Las Vegas Raiders Off-season Grade: C-
So much for Tom Brady masterfully running this operation from the shadows. Or if he is doing that then he's just as big a joke at management as all the rest of them are. No, these moves reek of Pete Carroll with a side dose of John Spytek. I don't see that the Raiders got noticeably better or worse throughout free agency, Geno Smith included. Is he really a massive upgrade over Aidan O'Connell? I'm unconvinced.
Their biggest losses are Nate Hobbs and Robert Spillane, and I'm also not sure their replacements, Eric Stokes and Elandon Roberts, are upgrades. In fact, I'm pretty sure those are downgrades. Which leaves the draft with Carroll's fingerprints all over it.
Jeanty is a good player and helps the run game, but is that really what a rebuilding team needed to compete in the future? It helps them for 2025 though. They also got a running mate for Jakobi Meyers in Jack Bech. I like Bech well enough, but he does seem to have a similar skillset to Meyers. I would have preferred a receiver with a different style. After that I'm not a fan. Darien Porter and Dont'e Thornton are class Carroll he's-a-great-athlete-hopefully-we-can-teach-him-to-play-footballs pick. Honestly so is Charles Grant, but I have more hope there. Pegues is very interesting for his very diverse skill set and ability to rush the passer. I suppose I'll give the Raiders a low "C" grade since they did get an upgrade at QB (however small) along with big upgrades at RB and WR, but overall this off-season left me thinking nothing has really changed with the Raiders. Sure, maybe they win a handful more games now, but they aren't getting out of Mediocristan anytime soon.
Kansas City Chiefs Off-season Grade: B
I love what the Chiefs pulled off here. In a year where a lot of factors were stacking up against them returning to the AFC championship and/or Superbowl, the Chiefs went and knocked the off-season out of the park. It would be easy for them to get complacent due to their success, but this team is never caught standing still. They are always looking to improve. They released a bunch of good players but players with big contracts that were starting to age, looking to get younger and cheaper in the process.
Many organizations wouldn't have the guts to get rid of a player the caliber of Joe Thuney, but KC rightly assumes they can replace most of his production for a fraction of the cost. Even if it's a slight downgrade, the move is worth it overall because they can use the money to get better elsewhere. Most of that money went to upgrading left tackle with Jaylon Moore. We'll see how well that works out, but it's a smart gamble. Tillery is good depth at defensive tackle, Fulton is a solid starter at corner, Mitchell is insurance for Pacheco and Hunt, and very quietly Minshew is a high caliber backup QB, one of the most underrated and overlooked positions in football. If something were to happen to Mahomes, KC can get by for a few games now.
To all of that they added one of the most interesting drafts. KC got perhaps the best left tackle, Simmons, although he probably needs a year to finish recovering from his injury. Norman-Lott and Gillotte (that's a lot of Lott) help upgrade the pass rush. Williams and Bassa should be upgrades in coverage. Royals was a steal at his spot and a future starting slot receiver. And Brashard Smith adds an element of speed missing from the RB room. Overall, just a very, very smart and solid group of signings and picks.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders might win in a flash and name value with Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, but a mediocre QB and a first round RB in this day and age just do not matter that much. The Chiefs, by contrast, got big upgrades at left tackle, defensive tackle, edge rusher, corner, and backup QB...all premium positions. Just to drive the point home, the gap between Geno Smith and Gardner Minshew is not that big (Minshew was 7-10 with 16 TDs/14 INTs over his last 17 starts for the putrid Raiders and Colts while Geno was 10-7 with 21 TDs/15 INTs on a solid Seattle team), and yet the Raiders paid Geno $75 million to replace Minshew and KC picked up Minshew for just over $1 million. There is no world where Geno Smith is worth $74 million more than Minshew but leave it to dumb teams like the Raiders to figure that out the hard way.
Smart teams make smart moves and dumb teams make dumb moves. The Chiefs move on in a blowout.
RC’s analysis...
Kansas City offseason comments:
The Chiefs took a big hit in the offseason when they traded away Joe Thuney to the Bears, but they did OK in free agency to improve from there...signing OT Jaylon Moore, solid CB Kristain Fulton, and upgrading backup QB in Gardner Minshew.
And then KC had a really nice draft. Josh Simmons was an incredible value in the 1ast-round. Ashton Gillotte was one of our top value prospects in this draft. Lott-Royals-Nohl Williams-Brashard Smith can all contribute in 2025.
Las Vegas offseason comments:
With a roster needing to be churned due to lack of talent, and with a new regime coming in -- how did the Raiders manage to get worse in free agency? Lost key starters in Hobbs and Moehrig. Lost former starters/contributors Deablo, Epps, Chaisson. A lot of good and decent players they let go and signed very little in return to replace them. Jeremy Chinn was the only decent add in free agency.
LV’s best thing to save the offseason was trading for Geno Smith, which is a big offseason upgrade in what we’re judging here (2025 only) but after that trade it was a weak free agency period. A big letdown from where I thought this team might be headed with the new regime.
Their draft was OK...a lot of interesting developmental prospect PLUS Ashton Jeanty and a solid enough Jack Bech. Their draft was interesting/intriguing but it feels like it’s a lot of hope more for 2026+. Jeanty is nice but it’s still ‘just a running back’. Almost every NFL team has a legit RB, if not two+...now, the Raiders have one too.
RC’s WINNER: Kansas City
They lose Thuney but add Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore to the O-Line to turn it into a positive. Good pieces added all over...guys who can contribute to an already talented roster. I give KC the win because they bolstered the 2025 season results more than I think the Raiders did.
The Raiders’ offseason was more interesting for the long term perhaps, but they gave up on a lot of current/experienced talent and didn’t bring in much aside from Geno Smith...which is huge, but I don’t think is enough of a bump for 2025 compared to what KC did.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Kansas City moves on to the AFC West Finals
