Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
5/15 THU
(7:21amET)
-- I honestly thought, yesterday, that the schedule was getting released today. To my surprise/ignorance, things were happening during the day yesterday and I just ignored it. There’s so much hoopla and leaks and ‘wacky’ team videos about the new schedule release that I just ignored every headline item to do with the schedule, thinking it wasn’t fully coming out until tonight, and kept working on other football things all day/night yesterday.
Then to my surprise, the schedule was suddenly out in the evening. I’ll spend the next few days analyzing and processing the schedule order...preparing to do our 1.0 Faux/Computer Simulation season run among other things...but I’m also starting to look at the interesting Week 1 matchups, and maybe some early bets on things/games. Whatever I or any of our betting group finds interesting early, we will put it out for consideration ASAP over the next few days...but really we’ll be studying the schedule and issues/opportunities all the rest of the month.
The most interesting thing about the schedule release for me to observe over the next 24-48 hours is -- how is the mainstream interpreting this year’s schedule? What are they excited about? And more importantly, what are they missing/ignoring? What are they changing the Vegas odds on...what Fantasy things are they going to try and make big sweeping decisions about because of perceived strength of schedule or ‘travel miles’, none of which has any correlation (in the modern era) to anything for wins/losses or FF performance, but they’ll be breathlessly trying to impress everybody with schedule ‘things’ they think they’ve discovered.
No need to rush to knee-jerk conclusions for us, we’ll be working on it over the next few days.
However, I’m human...I like looking at the early schedule matchups and having some knee-jerk reactions/feelings too. Peaking at Week 1’s lineup...there are some interesting matchups, as a fan/observer of such things.
TB at ATL caught my eye...Atlanta gets a potential break there to not have more tape on Michael Penix going into that game. I think it’s a subtle divisional game advantage for ATL. Whether they capitalize on it is a whole other event to discuss.
TEN at DEN...Hey, Cam Ward! Welcome to the NFL!! Have fun facing the league’s best defense at their home stadium/altitude!
MIN at CHI...Congrats on your first start, J.J. McCarthy! Please go to Chicago on a Monday night for that debut. An advantage for Chicago. Again, whether they can capitalize on it...we’ll see.
I got two Best Bets already percolating in my brain for Week 1, but I need to spend a little more time with it and we’ll release any plays on the Betting side of things on FFM. I’ll likely make and publish my first two schedule-related bets today.
-- The new season of our Betting Subscription option is now open for sign up. See our invite on the ‘Betting’ tab for more description on the details and how to sign up, etc., or click here:
https://ffmetrics.com/betting/5453-the-2025-betting-subscription-season-is-now-open
-- Rookie minicamp notes that I could get some confirmation on...
KC: Jalen Royals has received attention for his routes and smarts at camp, which is good for his trajectory to get to playing time fast. He’s not getting buzz off of ‘speed’...he’s getting noted for ‘routes’ and ‘smarts’...that’s a good thing in this era.
WSH: There’s been some local writer’s buzz about Commanders UDFA DB Car'lin Vigers in minicamp. The name wasn’t familiar to me, so I did about 10-15 minutes of researching/tape...and ‘I don’t see it’. A bad tackling safety or slow/thin-framed nickel corner.
Not for me.
DEN: An oddball UDFA that I didn’t have on the radar prior, has been signed by the Broncos to the 90-man roster after his tryout at camp. A quick summary of his story (below), because I had to go look him up and look at tape (and you’ll want to see a moment of his tape, and you will in a moment)...
(A Grok rewrite from my scattered notes and an article I came across): Kyrese White, formerly Kyrese Rowan, just got signed/has earned a spot on the Denver Broncos’ 90-man roster following an impressive tryout at their rookie minicamp. A former walk-on at Utah, White played special teams before transferring to Utah State, his stepfather’s alma mater. After six years, he finally showcased his offensive skills in 2024, recording 44 receptions for 526 yards, three receiving touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, and contributing on kickoff returns and special teams.
A former teammate of Denver’s Devaughn Vele at Utah, White’s journey from walk-on to NFL hopeful embodies a “Rudy”-like Cinderella story. His grit, athleticism, and underdog mentality make him a compelling figure in the Broncos’ 2025 rookie class. As a longshot, White’s performance in training camp could solidify his place on the team, continuing his unconventional path to the NFL.
When I quick-watched some tape to see if there was anything worth mentioning here, I saw the first play shown on this tape and I was like ‘OK, we need to get this guy on the radar).
https://youtu.be/bi-zL2beB_8?si=xhxXd37E3ukNV6gf
Is this a new Deonte Harris/Harty hope for Sean Payton?
-- This is one of the best, most thoughtful pieces that I’ve ever seen on ESPN. It’s a long one, and an interesting one. You’ll chew up some good worktime reading this one.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP...looking like it will be Will Howard.
*Top 600 Dynasty, Best Ball top 600 and IDP update updated last weekend, planned next update this weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
5/14 WED
(7:33amET)
-- The official NFL schedule release is coming up tomorrow. A couple notes on what we’ll do around all that.
*It will take a few days to process/analyze it and update our systems to consider the impact the schedule will have affecting our 2025 player projections and valuations, etc.
*The schedule order affects our Draft Guide projections and planning the most...and you won’t see and read about all those effects, by player, until the draft guide player commentaries and projections release in early June.
But we will touch on things that wildly stand out as big opportunities or things we need to run from, due to the schedule layout, on special reports all the rest of May.
*Our annual FAUX season/computer simulation series will begin sometime the week after the schedule release -- where we run simulations of all the 2025 games, 3 weeks of the season at a time, up unto/through the playoffs.
And to go with that, we will get several other FFM analyst’s projected standings as well to compare all our notes. Annually, we do a Faux season projection sometime after the schedule is released, and then at least one more right after the 53-man rosters get locked in.
*Any betting items that spring forth from our schedule analysis we’ll report out/make bets on as we see them.
I am hoping DraftKings has that ‘drive for five’ betting opportunity again (betting on the first 5 games/records of the season for each team). We won’t know until the schedule is officially released.
*The schedule order will affect Dynasty and Best Ball slightly, but the major effect is the redraft impact as we have proprietary calculations on how the schedule layout affects player valuations.
-- Random rookie camp notes I could get somewhat verified...
LAC = Onlookers pointed out RB Rahiem Sanders and WR Luke Grimm as the ones who stood out from among the UDFAs, and then Jim Harbaugh gave them some praise at one of his post-practice press availabilities. Sanders got the most love, I’m told.
LAC = People are in love with watching Tre Harris and Justin Herbert in throwing drills. I saw some tape of them working together, I mean...it’s just shorts and t-shirt throwing against no coverage. I haven’t seen any reason to get over-excited yet. I’m a Harris and a Herbert fan, and I expect it will be good/great...but this early practice tape doesn’t mean anything definitive to me yet.
SF = UDFA WR Isaiah Neyor has been the huge talk of 49ers camp. I’m surprised he wasn’t drafted...I’m not surprised that they’re all marveling at him now. He is a physical presence and a nice athlete -- but I think he also has some WR chops to go with the physique/size/athleticism.
CLE = Mason Graham is getting the most negativity of any 1st-round pick so far at their minicamps. And all reports seem to believe it’s warranted.
Graham getting sick during the initial workouts is the easy thing that is drawing some national attention. But getting less discussion outside of local media and observers -- how clunky, unathletic, and how small he looks. Ross Jacobs was all over this months ahead of the draft.
The fact that the Browns traded away their shot at Travis Hunter and part of the deal was falling back to Jacksonville’s #5 pick to get what has looked like all pre-Draft scouting and now currently in real-time looks like is going to be the biggest bust of all the 1st-round picks (until we see Jaxson Dart) -- it’s so ‘Cleveland’.
Will this get the Browns GM and President, etc., fired...finally? The same people who did the Deshaun Watson deal, among a myriad of stupid deals also were the ones who traded away Hunter. It’s insane that the management team got raises/new deals like a year or so ago.
PIT = Kaleb Johnson is getting top praise from minicamp. Some of it is desperate fans/media wanting some offensive hope. But the coaches are showing a lot of interest in his every move.
I did a quick Grok check on the latest comments by Tomlin-Smith on Kaleb. Here were the results...
Q: what has mike tomlin and arthur smith said about Kaleb Johnson in 2025
A: In 2025, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith made several statements about their third-round draft pick, running back Kaleb Johnson, highlighting his fit with the team and addressing concerns about his speed. Below is a summary of their comments based on available information.
Mike Tomlin's Statements:
On Johnson's Speed and Game Tape: Tomlin addressed concerns about Johnson’s 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine, emphasizing that his game speed was evident on film. He stated, “We didn’t question his speed whatsoever watching the video... His speed was not in question on the video. He broke a lot of long runs in the Big Ten.” This was said during a post-draft press conference, indicating Tomlin’s confidence in Johnson’s ability to perform despite his combine numbers.
On Team Culture and Physicality: Tomlin highlighted Johnson as part of the Steelers’ strategy to add size and physicality to the roster. During the post-draft press conference, he noted, “We wanted to retool physicality in all areas,” and Johnson, at 6’1” and 224 pounds, fit this mold as a physical running back.
Personal Interaction: Tomlin personally expressed enthusiasm for Johnson during a pre-draft visit, telling him, “I like you as a player, and I want you to come.” Johnson recalled this interaction, noting Tomlin’s direct encouragement.
Arthur Smith’s Statements:
On Scheme Fit: Smith was highly enthusiastic about Johnson’s fit in his zone-rushing attack, describing him as a “perfect fit” for the Steelers’ offense. He noted, “We think he’s a great culture fit. Obviously extremely fired up to get Kaleb in here.” Smith emphasized Johnson’s experience running outside zone concepts at Iowa, which aligns with his offensive philosophy.
On Johnson’s Performance: Smith praised Johnson’s explosiveness and late-game production, stating, “What he averaged in the fourth quarter, I believe it was over five yards per carry. Might have been closer to six.” This highlighted Johnson’s ability to finish games strongly, a key trait for the Steelers’ offense.
On Culture and Character: After the draft, Smith succinctly explained why Johnson was selected, saying he was a “great culture fit” for the team. This aligned with the Steelers’ focus on drafting players who embody their team-first mentality and work ethic.
-- Some rumblings of Will Levis trade rumors to Saints since Derek Carr retired. I don’t believe that is going to happen.
No one wants to take on Will Levis preemptively/proactively...because most all NFL teams either have their QB or they don’t but are total ‘chickens’ to take on risk/make a bold statement on any player...especially a QB.
Teams are afraid of Levis from the media reports and mocking of him all last season. When Levis made mistakes it was comedic fodder for sports media. When Bryce Young made mistakes or Caleb Williams looked like idiots -- it was glossed over/excused; they just needed time to ‘clean things up’.
Teams think Levis stinks because the media does...just like teams all stayed away from Derrick Henry last preseason because ‘he’s shot’, so said the media and their one flawed/out-of-context PFF rushing efficiency stat...and all the teams believed it. The contract Henry signed with Baltimore was a total embarrassment/underpayment for what he was worth. Baker Mayfield was toxic and no one wanted him either, at certain points of his career...until he then became a top 10 NFL QB. Then TB O-C Dave Canales was initially thinking Kyle Trask was gonna be his QB, would win their QB competition...not Baker.
So, for sure Kellen Moore isn’t sticking his neck out for Will Levis. Why would he? The Saints stink, so why trade draft picks away for a QB you’re about to lose contractual control over? And new coaches want THEIR GUY...and that guy is Tyler Shough for Moore. They will not pursue Levis.
I’ll show you how stupid NFL teams are when it comes to QB, and I won’t even use the Giants trade up for Jaxson Dart to prove it. NFL teams see a ton of potential with, enough to trade draft picks for, Joe Milton...and he’s a worse Trey Lance disaster about to happen. BUT football people convinced themselves that Milton completing a bunch of short/simple passes in a Week 18 against the Bills backups = Milton is ‘it’. Yet, none of them are making a move for Levis right now.
Tennessee is stuck waiting for a team to have an injury/get desperate at QB -- or they will just have to dump Levis to a smart team who scoops him up for a 5th-round pick to be their backup...like look for Tampa or Buffalo or Arizona or my #1 landing spot potential now -- Jacksonville, to reunite with Liam Coen. If Buffalo didn’t have its head up its own arse on offensive moves...they would’ve landed Levis to be an Allen understudy already.
Levis will be traded. There’s no way they let him anywhere near the same field as Cam Ward, in my opinion. Levis cannot be seen outshining Ward in any way. The Titans keep waiting for a team to get desperate to chase Levis...but soon it will be the Titans that get desperate if no QB fluke injuries hit by July camp.
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP...looking like it will be Will Howard.
*Top 600 Dynasty, Best Ball top 600 and IDP update updated last weekend, planned next update this weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
5/13 TUE
(7:23amET)
-- Rookie mini-camp notes of interest that I could get some trusted confirmation on...
WSH = Jacory Croskey-Merritt buzz is picking up and getting confirmed from multiple sources...but it’s more of a thing where people didn’t expect much from a 7th-rounder, but JCM has hit the ground running and gotten noticed as ‘legit’. Not a threat to take over the world, just that he’s getting noticed.
WSH = The best words on a Washington player from minicamp that I heard...it was on WR Jaylin Lane. I continue to say he reminds me a little of Marvin Mims.
KC = I asked a Chiefs source if he’d seen/heard anything about UDFA RB Qualan Jones from mini-camp, and he told me -- nothing...real silence, so far.
And even worse...I am told he didn’t sign a UDFA deal, he’s only there as an invite/tryout. Not good. I won’t forget that another HBCU UDFA RB, Emanuel Wilson, bounced around teams in his rookie summer...and then settled in with Green Bay and exploded in his rookie preseason debut and forced his way onto the Green Bay roster. Hope is not lost with Qualan, but it’s not the start I was hoping for because it’s too ‘quiet’.
JAX = Of course, Travis Hunter is all the rage...but after that the player that people and even Liam Coen are cooing about -- Notre Dame LB Jack Kiser. Caleb Ransaw got great accolades as well from people I trust.
MIN = I have been told I should reconsider our computer model scouting grades on Kobe King, who has been a stand out at Vikes minicamp.
King is a throwback middle linebacker with decent Pro Day measurables and had an OK Big Ten career at Penn State but apparently may have been ‘hiding in the weeds’. I’ll look at him some more ahead of our next DRD top 300 update Thursday.
-- A sad note from yesterday (from NBC): Browns placed LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck) on the reserve/PUP list. Owusu-Koramoah reported to Browns OTAs last month, but didn’t practice with the team after suffering a serious neck injury in Week 8 against the Ravens last season. The Browns released a statement saying that they “will not make any predictions on Jeremiah’s football future at this time.” Landing on the reserve/PUP list means that Owusu-Koramoah will miss the entire 2025 season. Second-round pick Carson Schwesinger would seem to have a chance to compete for a starting role in his rookie season.
A top IDP asset may have had his career taken away...sad.
But it is a spring up in IDP for the rookie we love, Carson Schwesinger.
-- A story from the anti-Shedeur, a guy who survived the Colorado/Deion culture...
https://www.outkick.com/sports/travis-hunter-airplane-woman-heartwarming-story-jacksonville-jaguars
-- Jauan Jennings has a different opinion on who the 49ers #1 WR is...
https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-oc-klay-kubiak-expects-jauan-jennings-to-resume-wr1-role-in-2025
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*Top 600 Dynasty, Best Ball top 600 and IDP update updated last weekend, planned next update this weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
5/12 MON
(7:01amET)
-- Random rookie camp notes I had confirmed from decent sources...
NYJ = Arian Smith is getting the most buzz from the Jets minicamp. Aaron Glenn is spending a lot of words/effort talking about how much he likes him to the media as well.
DEN = CB Jahdae Barron has Sean Payton’s heart. He is definitely going to start for them in Week 1...I can feel it from Payton’s comments and from the early reports from camp people are telling me. I am surprised how fast they are ditching JaQuan McMillan, but it’s happening apparently.
TB = If you think Sean Payton loves Barron...it may pale in comparison to how much Todd Bowles is beaming about CB Jacob Parrish. I think they are moving Tykee Smith to SAF and Parrish is in line to take over slot/nickel. I’m not 100% sure on that...Christian Izien still has sway among the DB group, but could be an odd man out/a #6 DB.
TB = And if you think Bowles loves Parrish...he is really in love with rookie DE David Walker out of the FCS ranks. Called him ‘the best player on the field’ after day one of minicamp.
LV = The early reviews on Tommy Mellott’s conversion to WR have been very positive, especially his natural route running.
-- I ran a Weeks 11-18 comparison of outputs of the Denver Broncos WRs...the time period where Marvin Mims started to break out. Here’s the comparison tables if you’re interested:
Performance Stats Table (Weeks 11-18 in 2024)
|
Player |
REC/G |
TRG/G |
REC YDS/G |
REC TD/G |
RUSH ATT/G |
RUSH YDS/G |
RUSH TD/G |
|
Courtland Sutton |
4.6 |
6.1 |
61.6 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Marvin Mims Jr. |
4.0 |
4.7 |
62.0 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
|
Devaughn Vele |
2.3 |
3.0 |
26.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Troy Franklin |
1.4 |
2.4 |
12.6 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Fantasy Scoring Table (Weeks 11-18 in 2024)
|
Player |
PPR PTS/G |
HALF-PPR PTS/G |
NON-PPR PTS/G |
|
Marvin Mims Jr. |
15.5 |
13.5 |
11.5 |
|
Courtland Sutton |
14.2 |
11.9 |
9.6 |
|
Devaughn Vele |
5.8 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
|
Troy Franklin |
3.5 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
-- It has been announced that the Friday Week 1 game in Brazil will be KC v. LAC. As a bettor on LAC this year, I am not happy about this...for 3 reasons:
1) I don’t want Andy Reid to have weeks/months to prep for a game.
2) Omarion Hampton will not have come into his own by then...it’s his debut game. Too much Najee could be coming, and that’s an advantage to KC.
3) This is considered a HOME game for LAC...that’s NOT a home game. I want LAC to play KC at HOME-HOME not in freaking Brazil on the terrible turf.
I would’ve wanted this to be like a Week 3-4 game at L.A./Sofi stadium.
I haven’t seen a spread on this, because it’s not official-official yet...but I’ll guess, for fun, it will be KC (-3.0).
Last year’s Brazil game...PHI beat GB, Jordan Love got hurt...Philly went on to get upset by Atlanta Week 2. The Packers shocked Indy with Malik Willis at QB in Week 2. Also, there is a 100% trend that the winner of the Brazil game goes on to win the Super Bowl... 😊
-- Coming up on FFM today...
*Next scouting report will publish ASAP.
*JJ McCarthy note incoming.
*Best Ball top 600 and the top 600 Dynasty over the weekend.
*Next DRD top 300 rankings update will be Thursday/s all summer.
**Our new series analyzing NFL team’s offseason moves (FA, trades, and draft) continues.
=====================
*FASTDRAFT is opening up more, new all-rookie Best Ball type contests and tournaments...and some lower cost ones to have fun with. Put your rookie studies to the test in a contest available in most states. More info on FastDraft and promo codes for initial deposit matches below:
***For those into playing DFS or Best Ball style tournaments for prize money, we have Promo Code (FFM) for matching funds deposited with our friend, The Podfather and Playerprofiler for their new tournament prize drafting App FastDraft.
Link to learn more and get the Promo Code: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/5363-upcoming-rc-interview-video-who-what-why-ff-contest-promo-code
I think FFMers could do quite well in the unique contests they have…especially jumping on things early, ahead of the curve -- like the all-Rookie (2025 class) FF draft/lineup contest and the D-Up/all IDP Best Ball tournament play. They are trying to bring unique game play to the DFS/Best Ball draft world, I think you might enjoy.***
*TWO NOTES OF INTEREST* On the FastDraft App/prize tournaments...
1) The FFM Promo Code opportunity has now been doubled by FastDraft for a stretch of time...matching funds of +$50 when you deposit $50 when you use the promo code FFM.
2) Also, there is a free to enter contest just opened on FastDraft...it’s an abbreviated Best Ball type draft...open for a limited time.
And note... The ‘all rookies’ tournament/prize contest ‘Origins’ closes April 24th...it’s a pre-Draft contest/battle of rookie scouting skills, so a great opportunity to try and take advantage using your rookie research.
