We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
Carolina Panthers 2025 Free Agency Losses:
S Xavier Woods (Tennessee Titans)
P Johnny Hekker (Tennessee Titans)
RB Miles Sanders (Free Agent)
CB C.J. Henderson (Free Agent)
LB Shaq Thompson (Free Agent)
DL Jadeveon Clowney (Free Agent)
Carolina Panthers 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
S Tre’von Moehrig (3 years, $51M, $25.5M guaranteed)
EDGE Patrick Jones II (2 years, $20M, $10M guaranteed)
RB Rico Dowdle (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
DT Bobby Brown III (2 years, $10.5M, $5M guaranteed)
WR Alec Chisena (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
P Sam Martin (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
K Matthew Wright (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
WR Hunter Renfrow (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Carolina Panthers 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
WR Tetairoa McMillan (1st Round, No. 8)
EDGE Nic Scourton (2nd Round, No. 40)
EDGE Princely Umanmielen (3rd Round, No. 71)
RB Trevor Etienne (4th Round, No. 102)
S Josh Ransom (4th Round, No. 122)
DT Cam Jackson (5th Round, No. 140)
TE Mitchell Evans (5th Round, No. 163)
WR Jimmy Horn Jr. (6th Round, No. 208)
QB Ethan Garbers (UDFA)
WR Jacolby George (UDFA)
S Aaron Jones (UDFA)
S Jalen Williams (UDFA)
OL Andrew Raym (UDFA)
WR Sam Pinckney (UDFA)
CB Willie Drew (UDFA)
DT Popo Aumavae (UDFA)
LB Donovan Jennings (UDFA)
WR Devin Carter (UDFA)
CB Bayron Matos (UDFA)
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Atlanta Falcons 2025 Free Agency Losses:
DT Grady Jarrett (Chicago Bears)
C Drew Dalman (Chicago Bears)
KR/PR Avery Williams (Philadelphia Eagles)
DT Eddie Goldman (Washington Commanders)
OLB Lorenzo Carter (New York Giants)
TE Ross Dwelley (San Francisco 49ers)
ILB Nate Landman (Free Agent)
CB Dee Alford (Free Agent)
Atlanta Falcons 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
OLB Leonard Floyd (1 year, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
CB Mike Ford (2 years, $4M, $2M guaranteed)
ILB Divine Deablo (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DT Morgan Fox (2 years, $8.5M, $4M guaranteed)
CB Keith Taylor (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
TE Feleipe Franks (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DT Ta’Quon Graham (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
WR KhaDarel Hodge (2 years, $6M, $3M guaranteed)
OL Storm Norton (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
OL Brandon Parker (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
OL Eli Wilkinson (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
OL Kyle Hinton (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
ILB Josh Woods (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
Atlanta Falcons 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
EDGE Jalon Walker (1st Round, No. 15)
EDGE James Pearce Jr. (1st Round, No. 26)
S Xavier Watts (3rd Round, No. 96)
S Billy Bowman Jr. (4th Round, No. 118)
OT Jack Nelson (7th Round, No. 218)
WR Nick Nash (UDFA)
OL Joshua Gray (UDFA)
CB Cobee Bryant (UDFA)
DT Simeon Barrow Jr. (UDFA)
LB Nick Kubitz (UDFA)
CB Daryl Porter Jr. (UDFA)
WR J.J. Jones (UDFA)
G J.J. Lippe (UDFA)
LB K.C. Ossai (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ analysis...
Carolina Panthers Off-season Grade: C-
Carolina has been a bottom-feeder for several years, so it would be very difficult for them not to at least stumble into some improvement at some point. They let a few underperformers go this year, and signed a few decent enough players, nothing special though.
The draft landed them the best receiver available in McMillan who should be a nice boost for the offense. After that though they missed a golden opportunity to add some premium talent. Scourton and Umanmielen each have things going for them as edge rushers, but neither stands out in any particular way and Umanmielen has several concerning character issues that could hold him back. Why the team spent a 4th round pick on Trevor Etienne when they have so many holes on the roster and several good RBs is beyond me.
Overall they certainly improved, but it could have been much, much better than it was. They'll be relying on Dave Canales to coach this team up once again.
Atlanta Falcons Off-season Grade: C+
The Falcons did lose a couple of good players in free agency, namely Drew Dalman and longtime fan favorite Grady Jarrett. Those losses will be felt for sure, and while the team didn't bring in direct replacements, they did add a few decent players to help make up the difference. Morgan Fox is no Jarrett but he's a good player. Divine Deablo and Leonard Floyd add a bit to the front seven.
The draft is where the real reinforcements came though. Jalon Walker was a bit overrated, but he's a high character guy that could grow into a good player inside. James Pearce was the best player Atlanta drafted despite his character and motivational issues. He helps juice up the pass rush. The cost to acquire him isn't factored in here. And they rounded out the defense with two really good safeties in Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman. Atlanta should definitely try out some 3-safety packages on defense because both those guys can play.
There were some big losses incurred in Atlanta this year, but the team also added enough in replacements to make up for it and hopefully improve. Not the best off-season, but not the worst either.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
I'm not in love with what either team did here, but I'll take Atlanta very slightly for 2025. Carolina got the best single addition in McMillan, but Atlanta landed more impact players in my opinion. Whether it's enough to challenge Tampa for the division crown remains to be seen.
RC’s analysis...
Carolina offseason comments:
Nothing major lost this offseason...X. Woods and Clowney are functional but not that important. They signed Tre’von Moehrig to replace Woods, which is an upgrade at SAF. Patrick Jones was a sneaky D-Line signee from the Vikings as was Bobby Brown a decent signing away from the Rams. The Panthers used free agency to improve this offseason.
Carolina got arguably the best player in the draft in Tet McMillan, but mild prospects after that and all but wasted picks in Evans and Horn.
Atlanta offseason comments:
Big free agent losses in Dalman and Jarrett, and not much signed in response with guys like Leonard Floyd, Morgan Fox, and Divine Deablo. The Falcons left free agency net ‘losers’.
In the draft, they added nice defensive pieces...Walker-Pearce-Bowman help to try and build up that defense.
RC’s WINNER: Carolina Panthers
I toss-and-turned on the decision here...it was tough to try to compare the apples-oranges comparison of what these teams did. But it came down to Atlanta losing Dalman and Jarrett and replacing with lesser free agents and promising rookies didn’t feel like the best 2025 only impact judgment versus Carolina lowkey adding three ‘veteran’ defensive starters but also adding the major impact piece of Tetairoa.
And with a split decision from Ross and I, I’m going to advance Carolina because it was close for both of us...but the pieces that Atlanta added in the draft, Ross doesn’t really love them and if it works out that Pearce is a headache and Walker is overrated -- then the Falcons are going to be deemed going backwards with their 2025 offseason in total...with two huge losses in free agency, two of the better players in free agency were Dalman and Jarrett, and Atlanta let both go to Chicago.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Carolina moves on to the NFC South finals to face Tampa Bay.
