We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
New York Jets 2025 Free Agency Losses:
OT Morgan Moses (New England Patriots)
DE Haason Reddick (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
DT Javon Kinlaw (Washington Commanders)
CB D.J. Reed (Detroit Lions)
DT Solomon Thomas (Free Agent)
LB C.J. Mosley (Free Agent)
S Chuck Clark (Free Agent)
S Ashtyn Davis (Miami Dolphins)
QB Aaron Rodgers (Free Agent)
K Greg Zuerlein (Free Agent)
WR Davante Adams (LA Rams)
New York Jets 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
QB Justin Fields (2 years, $40M, $30M guaranteed)
CB Brandon Stephens (3 years, $36M, $23M guaranteed)
S Andre Cisco (1 year, $10M, $10M guaranteed)
C Josh Myers (1 year, $3.5M, $2.75M guaranteed)
OT Chukwuma Okorafor (1 year, $4M, $2M guaranteed)
TE Stone Smartt (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
DT Byron Cowart (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DT Jay Tufele (1 year, $2.5M, $0.75M guaranteed)
DE Rashad Weaver (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
WR Tyler Johnson (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
CB Kris Boyd (1 year, $1.5M, $0.3M guaranteed)
P Austin McNamara (1 year, $1.5M, $0.3M guaranteed)
FB Andrew Beck (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
DT Derrick Nnadi (1 year, $3M, $1M guaranteed)
WR Josh Reynolds (1 year, $5M, $2.75M guaranteed)
DB Isaiah Oliver (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
New York Jets 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Armand Membou (1st Round, No. 7)
TE Mason Taylor (2nd Round, No. 39)
CB Azareye’h Thomas (3rd Round, No. 71)
WR Arian Smith (4th Round, No. 108)
S Malachi Moore (4th Round, No. 130)
LB Francisco Mauigoa (5th Round, No. 162)
DE Tyler Baron (5th Round, No. 176)
WR Quentin Skinner (UDFA)
RB Donovan Edwards (UDFA)
S Jordan Clark (UDFA)
S Dean Clark (UDFA)
K Caden Davis (UDFA)
WR Jamaal Pritchett (UDFA)
WR Dymere Miller (UDFA)
DT Fatorma Mulbah (UDFA)
DE Ja’Markis Weston (UDFA)
LB Aaron Smith (UDFA)
TE Bartle Bull (UDFA)
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Miami Dolphins 2025 Free Agency Losses:
QB Tyler Huntley (Free Agent)
OT Kendall Lamm (Free Agent)
G Isaiah Wynn (Free Agent)
WR Braxton Berrios (Houston Texans)
WR River Cracraft (Free Agent)
TE Jack Stoll (Free Agent)
DT Calais Campbell (New England Patriots)
OT Terron Armstead (Retired)
RB Raheem Mostert (Free Agent)
CB Siran Neal (San Francisco 49ers)
DT Da’Shawn Hand (Free Agent)
Miami Dolphins 2025 Free Agency Signings/Additions:
LB K.J. Britt (1 year, $3M, $1M guaranteed)
TE Pharaoh Brown (1 year, $3.5M, $1.5M guaranteed)
P Ryan Stonehouse (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
LB Willie Gay Jr. (1 year, $5M, $2.5M guaranteed)
CB Artie Burns (1 year, $2M, $0.5M guaranteed)
DT Benito Jones (1 year, $2.5M, $0.75M guaranteed)
QB Zach Wilson (1 year, $4.5M, $2M guaranteed)
RB Alexander Mattison (1 year, $3M, $1M guaranteed)
G James Daniels (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
LB Tyrel Dodson (2 years, $10M, $4M guaranteed)
S Ifeatu Melifonwu (1 year, $4M, $1.5M guaranteed)
S Ashtyn Davis (1 year, $2.5M, $1M guaranteed)
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (2 years, $6.5M, $3.2M guaranteed)
Miami Dolphins 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
DT Kenneth Grant (1st Round, No. 21)
G Jonah Savaiinaea (2nd Round, No. 44)
RB Ollie Gordon (4th Round, No. 119)
S Andrew Trader (5th Round, No. 155)
QB Quinn Ewers (7th Round, No. 229)
T Ted Kushi (UDFA)
S John Saunders Jr. (UDFA)
DT Alex Huntley (UDFA)
G Addison West (UDFA)
WR A.J. Henning (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs’ Analysis...
Miami Dolphins Off-season Grade: D
The big loss for Miami was Armstead, but they were somewhat prepared for that as they drafted Patrick Paul in the 2nd round last year. Whether Paul can successfully replace Armstead is a whole other matter. Outside of that the Dolphins didn't lose much of note, but they didn't add much either. There were a lot of bodies changing places but not much impact one way or another. At least all the contracts they signed were short and cheap. Maybe they got slightly better with some depth but it's negligible.
In the draft they added the underrated Kenneth Grant in the 1st round at defensive tackle, a dire need considering the state of their line and Jonah Savaiinaea at guard in the 2nd, another dire need. Savaiinaea was a strange pick from a scheme standpoint, but at least they attempted to help the line. The rest of their picks didn't add anything of note, and their secondary looks pretty bad even without the obvious Jalen Ramsey trade that's coming. Miami is sinking fast and could bottom out in 2025.
New York Jets Off-season Grade: D-
The Jets free agent losses were probably for the best in the long-term as they shed themselves of some expensive, overrated, aging players, but those losses will probably hurt in the short term. They lost multiple respectable players on defense in Kinlaw, Reed, Davis, and Clark and Moses, Rodgers, and Adams on offense. Mosley and Reddick are also gone, but neither contributed much in 2024 anyways. Again, good moves in the long run -- but they will feel those losses in 2025.
To replace all that the team signed a decent safety in Andre Cisco, Brandon Stephens, a big, stiff corner coming off a down year where he got repeatedly torched in coverage, and Justin Fields as a desperation shot at QB.
In the draft they did smartly take an offensive lineman in the 1st round, Armand Membou, but Membou has some technique issues to work out and is likely to struggle as a rookie. They followed that up with a massively overrated, generic TE in Mason Taylor, and another huge, slow corner just like Stephens in Azareye'h Thomas.
So to recap, the Jets lost a ton of aging players not worth their contracts, didn't replace them with anything of note, and then proceeded to blow their draft on players that aren't ready to play or don't matter.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins essentially win this by default despite the fact that they had a pretty terrible off-season. The Jets simply put on an absolute masterclass of terrible management which is to be expected as they have been refining their skills at being terrible for several decades now. They are literal experts at awful decision making. This matchup was like watching two toddlers do karate...the winner is the one that doesn't trip over their own feet and faceplant.
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RC’s analysis...
Miami offseason comments: Miami lost three locker room pillars in free agency (Calais, Mostert, Armstead). Huge losses on the field and in the locker room with Calais and Armstead...especially Armstead (Mostert not so big an on-field loss). And in their places, I don’t see anything of note that Miami added to improve their team. They have, arguably, the worst GM in all of the NFL...and this free agent class is proof that he is pretty clueless.
In the draft they did get a nice Kenneth Grant and a solid Jonah Savaiinaea...but not enough to offset their key losses and deep needs for their team.
NY Jets offseason comments: I got sick to my stomach looking at Miami’s 2025 offseason first in this matchup, but then I looked at this Jets dumpster fire...and the Miami offseason doesn’t look so bad anymore.
The Jets got worse at QB (Rodgers for Fields)...worse at WR losing Adams...worse at CB losing D.J. Reed vs. drafting Azareye’h Thomas. Not sure they’ll be better on the O-Line with Membou in and Moses gone either (in 2025).
It’s possible every Jets 2025 draft pick is gonna not be with the team after their first contract, by choice...that none of them are ‘worth it’. What a total disaster by NYJ.
RC’s WINNER: Miami Dolphins...they got worse this offseason, but the Jets got radically worse. So, I agree with Ross -- Miami wins this battle by default.
*Officially Moving on in the Tournament* Miami moves on to the AFC East finals to face the Patriots (and it won’t be pretty it feels like).
