We’re looking at all NFL team’s free agent moves (in and out) and their NFL Draft to see who got better and by how much -- setting the tone for analyzing them for the upcoming season for FF purposes and for betting evaluations on team over/unders, etc.
We had Grok list all the moves and we show them first and then Ross and I (RC) weigh in on what we see with all the roster moves -- how they affect 2025 only. And ultimately we pick a winner.
We’ll do two matchups per day, within each division seeded from the 2024 final standings, for 16 days...then we’ll take the 16 winners and accelerate the matchups after that and advance the best ‘offseason’ moves teams through to the ‘Super Bowl’, declaring a final winner.
New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Losses:
QB Jacoby Brissett (Free Agent)
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Released, Free Agent)
C David Andrews (Released, Retired)
DT Davon Godchaux (New Orleans Saints)
DE Deatrich Wise Jr. (Washington Commanders)
CB Jonathan Jones (Washington Commanders)
OT Chukwuma Okorafor (Released, New York Jets)
New England Patriots 2025 Key Free Agency Signings/Additions:
QB Josh Dobbs (2 years, $8M, $3.8M guaranteed)
WR Stefon Diggs (3 years, $69M, $34.5M guaranteed)
WR Mack Hollins (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
OT Morgan Moses (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
C Garrett Bradbury (2 years, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
DT Milton Williams (4 years, $104M, $52M guaranteed)
CB Carlton Davis (3 years, $60M, $30M guaranteed)
LB Robert Spillane (3 years, $37M, $18.5M guaranteed)
LB Jack Gibbens (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
EDGE Harold Landry (3 years, $43.5M, $21.75M guaranteed)
New England Patriots 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
OT Will Campbell (1st Round, No. 4)
RB TreVeyon Henderson (2nd Round, No. 38)
WR Kyle Williams (3rd Round, No. 69)
C Jared Wilson (3rd Round, No. 95)
S Craig Woodson (4th Round, No. 106)
DT Joshua Farmer (4th Round, No. 137)
EDGE Bradyn Swinson (5th Round, No. 146)
K Andres Borregales (6th Round, No. 182)
OT Marcus Bryant (7th Round, No. 220)
LS Julian Ashby (7th Round, No. 251)
CB Kobee Minor (7th Round, No. 257)
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TE C.J. Dippre (UDFA)
DL Wilfried Pene (UDFA)
S Jordan Polk (UDFA)
WR Jeremiah Webb (UDFA)
OT Cole Birdow (UDFA)
WR Efton Chism (UDFA)
QB Ben Wooldridge (UDFA)
TE Gee Scott Jr. (UDFA)
LB J.B. Brown (UDFA)
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Buffalo Bills 2025 Key Free Agency Losses:
EDGE Von Miller (Released, Free Agent)
WR Mack Hollins (New England Patriots)
P Sam Martin (Free Agent)
CB Rasul Douglas (Free Agent)
CB Kaiir Elam (Dallas Cowboys, via trade)
DT Quinton Jefferson (Free Agent)
DT Jordan Phillips (Free Agent)
DT Austin Johnson (Free Agent)
Buffalo Bills 2025 Key Free Agency Signings/Additions:
WR Josh Palmer (3 years, $36M, $18M guaranteed)
DE Joey Bosa (1 year, $10M, $5M guaranteed)
DE Michael Hoecht (3 years, $24M, $12M guaranteed)
DT Larry Ogunjobi (1 year, $5M, $2.5M guaranteed)
CB Tre’Davious White (1 year, $8M, $4M guaranteed)
CB Dane Jackson (1 year, $3M, $1.5M guaranteed)
RB Darrynton Evans (1 year, $1.5M, $0.5M guaranteed)
S Darrick Forrest (1 year, $2M, $1M guaranteed)
Buffalo Bills 2025 Rookie Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents:
CB Maxwell Hairston (1st Round, No. 30)
DT T.J. Sanders (2nd Round, No. 41)
EDGE Landon Jackson (3rd Round, No. 72)
DT Deone Walker (4th Round, No. 109)
CB Jordan Hancock (5th Round, No. 170)
TE Jackson Hawes (5th Round, No. 173)
CB Dorian Strong (6th Round, No. 177)
OT Chase Lundt (6th Round, No. 206)
WR Kaden Prather (7th Round, No. 240)
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DE Hayden Harris (UDFA)
WR Hal Presley (UDFA)
WR Kelly Akharaiyi (UDFA)
OL Jacob Bayer (UDFA)
DL Paris Shand (UDFA)
S Wande Owens (UDFA)
OL Rush Reimer (UDFA)
DB TaMuarion Wilson (UDFA)
WR Stephen Gosnell (UDFA)
LB Keonta Jenkins (UDFA)
TE Keleki Latu (UDFA)
Ross Jacobs analysis...
Buffalo Offseason Grade: B-
The Bills didn't lose a whole lot in free agency, and they added some significant pieces particularly on the defensive line with Hoecht, Ogunjobi, and Bosa. Then they had a phenomenal draft with even more defensive line. Sanders has some pass rush upside and Deone Walker could be a monster if his back heals and he gets his weight under control. They also addressed their dire need at corner with one of the best in the class in Hairston. Buffalo identified their weaknesses and attacked them with precision and efficiency and find themselves poised to finally take down the AFC.
New England Off-season Grade: A-
New England is undergoing a massive revamp under Mike Vrabel. He is putting his stamp on this team, and I expect massive improvement. What area did the Patriots not improve this off-season?
They cut a bunch of expensive, aging vets and brought in multiple solid starters on defense during free agency. Landry, Spillane, Davis, and Williams will immediately add an element of toughness missing from this team. They also brought in Moses to man the right side of the line, Hollins for his size and toughness at receiver, and Bradbury to compete at center, plus a ton of depth pieces. Then in the draft they hit on several critical areas including O-line, receiver, RB, and D-line, all potential young building blocks for the future.
Free agency was used to fill holes and make them more competitive, and the draft brought a new core. That's exactly how teams should be building.
Ross’s Winner: New England Patriots
As good a job as the Bills did, the Patriots get the win here by virtue of the sheer number of new starters they added. I think they improved more overall than Buffalo even though these moves could get the Bills over the hump to a Superbowl appearance. Of course, it's much easier to improve when you are terrible than when you are already really good. New England is rising from the bottom of the barrel the last 3 years into decently competitive territory.
RC Analysis...
New England Offseason Comments:
Looking at the Pats free agency...didn’t really lose much, name/talent-wise. And they definitely signed more talent coming in, with their big budget/CAP availability they had.
NE signed four instant starters on defense -- Carlton Davis, Milton Williams, Spillane, Landry. If Davis is as good at CB as he was last year, and for his career...teaming him with Christian Gonzalez is pretty savvy. The best CB duo in the division, and one of the best in the league perhaps? The defense is boosted.
The offense...not so much. Vrabel is ‘offensively challenged’ and he’s going for the Steelers-mindset of: boring run game and hopefully good defense. And offensive players know this, thus they couldn’t sign anyone of note...no one wants to go there if they have other options. They overspent/wasted $ on Stefon Diggs, who may not play until halfway into the season...and he did not look great last season. Mack Hollins is a good grinder WR, a mercenary not a game changer. They did add a couple useful OL upgrades, because the O-Line was so bad anything is an upgrade.
On both sides of the ball, the Pats are better in what they lost vs. gained in free agency. They got 4-5 instant starters from the draft too. The Patriots didn’t make 1-2 power/killer moves among all their dealings, but the power of this offseason was in the depth/quantity of useful or good players they got versus the marquee of ‘quality’ of top names. This is the kind of offseason they needed to have.
Buffalo Offseason Comments:
The Bills did some ‘improvin’ as well this offseason, which is difficult for teams at the top to do. But the Bills turned over their D-Line nicely...ditching the old, bringing in the new through free agency and the draft. They had CB issues, and they smartly nailed Hariston-Hancock, Strong from the draft. The Bills did an incredible job bolstering the defense.
On offense, the Bills did virtually nothing...didn’t lose anything, but didn’t gain anything either. Josh Palmer for $18M guaranteed...why?
RC’s Winner: New England Patriots
I agree with Ross’s analysis. The Bills did some good things but fell short of doing something special. And all of the Bills action, the good moves, were on defense...but the Pats got better both sides of the ball.
And looking at the top names...I think I’d rather have the Pats top names (Milton W., Landry, TreVeyon, Kyle Williams, Carlton Davis) than whatever anyone thinks is the Bills’ best 5 names from the offseason. NE beats BUF’s offseason in quantity and quality.
*Officially Moving On in the Tournament* New England moves on to the AFC East finals.
