Las Vegas traded a 3rd-round pick (#92) to Seattle for Geno Smith.
Seattle takes a $15M CAP hit, and Las Vegas takes on $25M due in 2025 (Geno’s final year of his contract) but I’m sure Vegas will re-do his deal for a 2-3-year situation.
I like the trade for Las Vegas, Ross Jacobs hates the trade...which being against has a viable case/reaction, but I think it’s more wrong than right for what Vegas is trying to do...and what people think about Geno Smith. Let’s break it down by NFL impact, then FF impact...
My base argument is: In this (QB) ‘economy’, who is a better/achievable QB option for a team to pursue?
Another component of this: This trade is also proving out my LV source’s thesis/intel on Raiders things -- that they are playing to get to legitimacy now...they are not tanking to rebuild on a 5-year plan...they believe they can turn the ship around immediately (to being decent), while they seek their franchise QB for the future over the next 1-3 years.
Most people hate this deal, because they hate Geno...but I would say: If you think Geno stinks...where have you been?
Geno is 27-22 as a starter for the past three seasons in Seattle...a winning record all three seasons. Doing so on a Seattle team with either bad or not top defenses in that span (#25, #25, #12 by points allowed the past 3 years). The defense was not carrying this team at all...it was mostly a liability.
And it wasn’t Seattle’s offensive line that carried the team, in fact Seattle’s O-Line has been one of the bottom five worst O-Lines the past 3 seasons combined (going by PFF and Warren Sharp’s ratings for outside opinion...but our ratings are down that low too). The Seattle O-Line has been ranked #27, #25, and #30 (2022-2024) in the league in PFF or Sharp’s metrics the past three years.
If it wasn’t their defense, nor was it their O-Line propping Seattle up...both of those factors were negatives/not positives the past 3 seasons...and if you can’t point to some genius offensive minded head coach like McVay or Shanahan propping the QB up...and if you can’t claim the division they were in ‘stinks’ -- then tell me how Seattle has a winning record every season, a playoff appearance, tied for the division title last season (lost on tiebreakers), and has been the #10 team in the NFL in total wins over the last three seasons if Geno Smith isn’t at least modern day decent/good?
Do you know who has the highest pass completion rate in the NFL in the past 3 seasons (according to Grok 3.0)? Joe Burrow...that was your guess? So close! He’s #2. Geno Smith is #1 at 69.4%.
Geno Smith has won the 7th most games of any QB in the last three regular seasons? Only Burrow-Goff-Lamar-Mahomes-Allen-Hurts have won more.
I’m not trying to tell you that Geno Smith is elite, but I am saying...he’s pretty good...and I am saying people who think he’s garbage are totally wrong/living in the distant past. Geno is one of the 20 best QBs in the NFL, right now...and he’s arguably better than any free agent QB available. And in the 2025 NFL Draft, if you don’t get Cam Ward, then there’s not a better QB in the draft than Geno...and if you have a 2025-2026 focus to be relevant while trying to build around things until you land the ace, young franchise QB of the future -- you’d rather have Geno than Cam the next two years.
Go ahead and see if there are 20+ other QBs you’d rather have for the next season or two than Geno Smith. I looked...and I get stuck in the pool of the Love-Dak-Tua-Trevor-Purdy-Kyler-Rodgers-Russ type/range of QBs around #16-22 best in the league (by my count).
If every QB that I just mentioned were at the same exact CAP cost, and I could only have one of them for the next two years only...if those were the parameters, and I had a win-now/’get respectable now’ focus, of that Love-Dak-Tua-Trevor-Purdy-Kyler-Rodgers-Russ group...I’d probably take Purdy over Geno, and maybe that’s it. Dak would be under consideration, but Geno has way outperformed him of late and been WAY healthier. Rodgers is something to consider, but at his age -- I’d probably default to Geno, who has been a better QB than Rodgers in that span. I definitely want Geno’s leadership over Kyler-Trevor-Tua types, much less passer talent debate over those guys.
The Geno deal won’t be seen as sexy, because Geno Smith doesn’t titillate people’s emotions...because Geno is a former ‘bust’ who is just a steady grinder, a solid/good QB, incredibly accurate, and a leader of a team personality that’s mostly out of the East Coast and L.A. media eye. But this was a super sound move the more and more that I think about it. If you couldn’t get Matt Stafford, and LV tried, this was likely the next best thing that they could do -- and credit the new Las Vegas management, that I said was about to shake up the way teams are run/making bold moves...well, a few days later from me talking about that...here we are -- aggressive moves have begun. And this is just the beginning, if my Raiders source is correct.
Oh, and that little mock debate/draft with the Love-Dak-Tua-Trevor-Purdy-Kyler-Rodgers-Russ vs. Geno...that was just a fun ‘draft’, but only Rodgers and Russ are the only real/gettable QB options available in 2025. Pete Carroll correctly chose Geno over Russ in 2022, so he’s not undoing that in 2025...so Russ is not an option. Geno v. Rodgers...they went Geno. Geno vs. Darnold...Geno all day long. Of the QBs realistically/actually available to Las Vegas (or any team), Geno has a strong argument that he’s better than all the other options.
It cost Las Vegas a late 3rd-round pick...but to get a stable+ QB...the arguable best QB in the 2025 open market versus the free agents and rookies -- a late 3rd is a minor price to pay in the big picture. If they signed a Darnold or Rodgers, it would cost them a 3rd-round compensatory pick anyway down the line. LV had two 3rd-round picks in 2025, they burned one to get arguably the best QB available in the year 2025. That’s what you HAVE TO do if you’re trying to get good/respectable right now...QB is too important to whiff on or scrimp on. And Geno is already ‘known’ to Pete Carroll...it’s not a gamble debate that it would ‘work’, like it would have been with Rodgers or Darnold, etc.
And Geno is definitely better than Aidan O’Connell, right now. Maybe O’Connell develops more with another 1-2 years under Geno? Maybe O’Connell becomes a breakout success in 2026, and Las Vegas moves Geno? Las Vegas is making moves focused on doing the best they can at QB. If Patrick Mahomes becomes available in a trade, then we can all dream up trade scenarios...but that’s not happening. They have smartly bought time to keep seeking a QB upgrade for the future.
I like this Geno move, NFL-wise. I like the logic, and I like the guts/aggression for Las Vegas.
For Seattle...it’s like the housing market in the U.S. today. GREAT!! You sold your house and made good money on the sale...but now you’re gonna have to go find another house to live in, that’s gonna be AS or more expensive but also at a much higher interest rate on any mortgage...so, what did you really gain by this move? What QB is Seattle getting to be a radical upgrade from Geno in today’s market? They aren’t getting Cam Ward, so now they will spend big F.A. money on Rodgers or Darnold (and lose a compensatory pick for signing either)...or, if they go for Shedeur Sanders in the top 20 of the draft -- I will literally die laughing that this was their plan.
Seattle is stuck in the middle class of the NFL.
Las Vegas is trying to get up to the ‘stuck’ teams/status...not a serious title threat but not embarrassments like they have been.
If Las Vegas really leverages all their advantages of Salary Cap and four picks in the first 107 picks in the draft, and assembles a real O-Line and upgrades anywhere else on top of that -- then this Geno move is really smart. If they butcher all their 2025 marketplace advantages...then this Geno move didn’t really matter anyway...whether it was Geno or Darnold or Shedeur or Aidan.
...and I guess this puts to bed what Tom Brady thinks of Shedeur Sanders...at a minimum they assess: not as good as Geno.
What Las Vegas does in free agency and in this draft is going to probably my #1 thing to watch this offseason -- is Brady a mad genius who is about to set the league on its ear with his business/football savvy...or just another random ex-player turned exec making erratic moves, going nowhere fast, being a ‘side hustle’ GM in-between golf outings, working out, calling games on Sundays, and going to fancy dinners every day? Is Brady grinding as an exec...or just flying by the seat of his pants?
What about the Fantasy ramifications from this?
For Seattle:
We don't know who their 2025 QB is gonna be.
D.K. Metcalf is likely on the move.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was really clicking with Geno in the 2nd-half of last season, but now that’s gone...and QB/WR relationships are so FF-critical -- now JSN doesn’t know who his QB will be for 2025 and we don’t know what WRs the Seahawks will be bringing in.
It’s now a sudden turmoil for JSN, so we will downgrade him for the time being. I wasn’t a JSN fan, in general...but I FF-respected the Geno-JSN late season run. Now, ‘poof’ that’s gone. Reevaluation time for 2025+.
For Las Vegas:
TBD.
The Raiders have a ton of money to spend and need to upgrade their O-Line and WR group. All accomplishable with their big salary CAP space and multiple top 110 draft picks -- but, we gotta see how they deploy all these asset advantages before we can properly value Geno or Jakobi, etc.
This definitely does not hurt Brock Bowers at all. A bump for BB, for me, on this move.
