We're looking at free agency ahead of the official FA start period (March 12th, kinda officially…but things are happening all week+ prior), going position by position to discuss some of the big names, tour top ranked guys, as well as the sleepers and frauds of the group…and we'll make some throwaway/dart throw predictions on landing spots.
Today's position group: RB
The consensus top three RBs available…
1) Aaron Jones, MIN
2) Najee Harris, PIT
3) J.K. Dobbins, LAC
FFM’s Top Three RBs Available...
1) Nick Chubb, CLE
I think he looked fine in his return from that gruesome leg injury. Pre-Injury, Chubb was seen as one of the 3 or so best RBs in the NFL. Now, people think he’s washed...a la how they tried to crucify Derrick Henry for a bad ypc season in 2023...instead of blaming the O-Line. Chubb is only 29+ years old this season.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Could return to Cleveland, but I think he’ll have a market out there from contenders with old school, run game head coaches.
I have a funny feeling he winds up in the AFC North...they would have the coaches that most respect him. I’ll say the Steelers would be the favorite.
2) Kareem Hunt, KC
Still has lead back chops...he showed that instantly in KC when Pacheco went down. How the league passed him by last offseason...well, they do it all the time. So, it’s not shocking. Like with D’Onta Foreman...every year for the past 3 years. Hunt won’t get a real deal or lead RB deal, but he should at least get interest this offseason...if he hits free agency.
2025 FA PREDICTION: I would be utterly shocked if KC didn’t re-sign him. I think they see him on par with Isiah Pacheco. They should try to lock him in before anyone else has an interest, but KC usually lets these types of RBs (McKinnon, Perine) sit out there and then they swoop at the end of free agency and take care of them...and the RBs want to go back there, like Hunt will, so Hunt will decline any crappy offers/interest and wait for KC to call...if need be.
3) Aaron Jones, MIN
Going to be 31 years old this season. Still productive, if in a great environment (like MIN). His whole career has been ‘in a good environment’. He’s perfect for a contender...but he may take the highest bidder contract.
2025 FA PREDICTION: He should go back to Minnesota, but MIN could make several RBs ‘work’...they don’t desperately need Jones. If a reasonable deal, he goes back to MIN...but he could be ‘bought’ by any contender with a bigger deal offer, but the NFL usually undervalues 30+ year old RBs...so, dreams of bigger dollars is unlikely for Jones -- forcing him back to MIN to be in a committee.
Las Vegas is my wild card choice...if Aaron Rodgers signs there first, then they’ll turn their attention to Davante and Aaron.
The fraud RB of free agency 2025: Najee Harris, PIT
Najee is one of my least favorite players in the NFL...he didn’t deserve a 1st-round pick, and he doesn’t deserve the millions of dollars he’s about to get in free agency because of his name/Alabama lure. When I think of all the talented RBs, like Jaylen Warren, who will make a pittance of Najee’s NFL earnings...it makes me sick.
But some team will throw all the monies at this.
2025 FA PREDICTION: This has New England written all over it. Mike Vrabel tries to recreate his Derrick Henry luck with Najee (and fails).
The best value RB in free agency 2025: Kareem Hunt, KC
Hunt likely feels slighted by the NFL last year...no one was interested in him, then KC gets in a bind and grabs him in desperation...and he’s instantly a really good lead back for them. The Chiefs are gonna want him to split with Pacheco in 2025.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Hunt signs with KC before the free agent period starts, out of thankfulness and knowing the NFL will likely snub him in free agency again anyway...like they have D’Onta Foreman for years. Or Hunt waits until all the deals are done and then KC locks him in...as KC always seems to do.
The deep sleeper RB in free agency 2024: A.J. Dillon, GB
IF he clears his medicals, this is a nice backup RB talent...or the ‘thunder’ part of a ‘thunder & lightning’ committee backfield. Coming off neck issues, he’ll be available for 1-year at a league minimum deal.
Information on Dillon from Grok 3.0:
As of the latest information available on March 2, 2025, AJ Dillon, the running back for the Green Bay Packers, has expressed his intention to return to play in the 2025 NFL season. Dillon missed the entire 2024 season due to a neck injury (a stinger) that led to his placement on injured reserve with no return designation. However, in a statement made on January 14, 2025, Dillon stated, “I’ll be good to go next year,” indicating his belief that he will be healthy and ready to play in 2025. He also mentioned focusing on getting healthy and being in the best shape possible for the upcoming season, suggesting optimism about his recovery.
While Dillon has not been officially cleared by the NFL or the Packers as of this date, his comments and the absence of any contradictory reports from team medical staff or the league indicate that he is working toward being ready for the 2025 season. However, his clearance for NFL action would depend on medical evaluations, physical readiness, and potentially a team physical if he re-signs with the Packers or signs with another team. As an unrestricted free agent starting March 12, 2025, his status could also depend on negotiations and any team’s assessment of his health.
Given the nature of his injury (a recurring neck stinger) and the cautious approach the Packers took in 2024, it’s reasonable to expect that Dillon will need to pass thorough medical evaluations to be cleared for contact and gameplay. Until an official update from the Packers, Dillon, or the NFL confirms his medical clearance, his status remains pending but promising based on his own statements. Posts on X and recent articles suggest a positive sentiment about his recovery, but no definitive medical clearance has been reported as of now.
2025 FA PREDICTION: Signs wherever Aaron Jones signs...and that could be Las Vegas or Minnesota, as my two favorites for Jones’ landing spots.
For more content from Fantasy Football Metrics: www.ffmetrics.com
Subscribe to FFM: FFM Subscription Information
