Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
SUN 2/9/25
(9:25amET)
-- It’s Super Bowl Sunday, finally...
I hope you enjoy your game event however it is that you are going to watch it. I’m going to a watch party/eating event. I’ll be with mostly KC fans. I don’t really care who wins, per se...I just want my minor prop bets to pay off. Actually, I’ll be quietly rooting for the Eagles since I threw a couple bucks on them to win the Super Bowl back around midseason when I saw the Eagles defensive uprising beginning...when it looked like Philly was the one team that could take down the Lions.
Remember when the Lions were supposed to be here?
Eagles win...Nolan Smith gets a sack...and RC comes out a $winner.
Enjoy the day. I’m not posting anything special today...just gonna let the Super Bowl take the center stage, as it should. Maybe a Senior Bowl position grade update will be posted, but I may just try to enjoy the day and post the latest one of those Senior Bowl reports on Monday morn.
My annual Super Bowl game report extravaganza will be out late Monday, possibly Tuesday morning...depends upon how much of a juggernaut the piece is...and I’m starting my journey/traveling back home Monday, to finally be back home late MON or early TUE -- then back to normal work days from there, I’m not traveling for several weeks...all in-office scouting, all the time coming up the rest of February...prepping for the NFL Combine, NFL Free Agency, the Pro Days and our first run of the Dynasty top 600 valuation/rankings on top of the individual scouting reports.
Who would I predict for the next Super Bowl matchup (2025-26), right now? Do we have to leap to next season already...before this one has ended? Next week there will be a thousand of those ‘way too early Super Bowl predictions’. Just to be cute, I’ll say...what the heck...Washington vs. Denver. You can’t make A NEXT Super Bowl prediction for real right now until you see free agency and the draft, so it’s all ridiculous predictions...but fun, nonetheless.
Enjoy America’s National Holiday today!
SAT 2/8/25
(7:53amET)
-- So...Myles Garrett wants to be traded. If I were the GM of the Browns, I would’ve already been working on that trade. Where has the great Myles Garrett gotten this defense the past 8 seasons? Has anyone been afraid of the amazing Browns defense? They underperform every season and churn through defensive coordinators. Garrett is no different than one of the Bosa’s...good players, but all they do is rush the passer...and the 1-2 times a game they get to the QB pales in comparison to the 50-60+ other snaps where they leave their space wide open with a ‘head down’ and surge attempt to the QB, especially out of the play trying to go outside/around the blockers and are pushed/nudged way out of the play/off the TV screen.
You rarely hear/see of an EDGE rusher tearing an ACL or spraining their ankles, etc. Why? Because they are smart...they are rarely in and around harm’s way...they just short sprint into a blocker and dance with them for 2-3 seconds then watch the play go elsewhere...or they try to run to the outside of an offensive tackle and easily get pushed way off course...out of harm’s way. Then they line it up the next snap and do the same thing over and over.
826 snaps played for Garrett in 2024.
14.0 sacks = 1.7% sacks on all his snaps in 2024.
40 solo tackles = 4.8% of his snaps resulted in solo tackles...3.1% non-sack solo tackles.
28 QB hits = 3.4% of the snaps he actually touched the QB, and now they are not allowed to hit the QB too hard...so a chunk of the hits are gentle bumps.
Why do we need to pay these guys $100M+ deals or draft them top 5 overall?
The NFL adores pass rushers over every position, including QB, as a whole (not all coaches, but most do) -- so this is the PERFECT time to trade Garrett and try and rebuild your team with gaping holes.
However, the same morons that run the Browns who did the Deshaun Watson deal...dumped Baker Mayfield to do it...and did the giant Jerry Jeudy, Jarvis Landry, and OBJ mega-WR deals that weren’t worth the exorbitant money spend -- they are the ones running the show still, so they’ll likely throw Garrett more money so he can waste more of their time and money.
...and the wheel goes round & round.
In other news, the Giants are not sure they’re going to exercise the 5th-year option on the great top 5 draft pick pass rusher Kayveon Thibodeaux.
-- There was this headline yesterday: Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell said Sam Darnold “earned the right to be a free agent” when asked about the possibility of re-signing him this offseason.
All we’ve seen/heard from O’Connell since the end of the season is -- nice words on how much he likes Sam, but that they are basically moving on. There is no radical messaging like...WE MUST keep Sam at all costs...or we’d love to have Sam with us for a long time.
J.J. McCarthy is going to be the starting QB for the Vikings in 2025...and why wouldn’t he? Why would Minnesota worry? All the 1st-round QBs from last year’s draft performed OK or well...or very well/historically. McCarthy might have been right there with them had he not gotten hurt in his first preseason game.
Darnold will be elsewhere in 2025...and he’ll be the most coveted QB, free agent or draft, of the offseason.
The time to Dynasty buy low (as it’s gonna get) on McCarthy is now before it’s fully realized Darnold is not returning to Minnesota.
-- Tales from the road...
Since I dissed the gas station extravaganza Buc-ee’s this past year I’ve had a few people tell me how great it is and that I really need to try their food. I’ve been to a Buc-ee’s twice and I’ve never gotten any food from there because -- why would I get food from a mega gas station? And my first two experiences were that the gas station having a clean bathroom wasn’t really worth the effort because there’s 1 million people there clogging up the parking lot and the toilets.
So yesterday while driving to Florida and needing to make a quick pitstop and having plenty of time on my hands/running ahead of schedule, I saw there was a Buc-ees coming up so I decided I would make a quick stop and actually grab a food item and sample it to see what I was missing.
Let me just say, I never got a food item to sample.
I just wanted to make a quick pull off the exit, hit the restroom, grab a sandwich and get out of there. But there were literally 9 billion people getting off that exit to get to the holy Grail of Buc-ee’s -- what should’ve been a two-minute exit off and get to the place wound up being a 15 minute stop and go to even arrive at the Buc-ees parking lot. Once I found a parking spot, which wasn’t easy, I went into the building and there were so many people there wandering around like a zombie horde looking at crappy merchandise and seeking cafeteria level food I could barely get to the restrooms. I was amazed and driven crazy by how much time it took to Frogger my way through the crowd to get to the restroom.
I will give Buc-ee's credit, they do have great restroom facilities. But the amount of time it takes to actually get to them makes it really not worth the effort...but I was there, committed, so I quickly used the facilities and then was going to go get a sandwich and get the heck out of there and get back on the road because of all my precious time that I lost.
So, I went to the food area in the middle of the store where employees were feverishly making chopped brisket sandwiches as the crowd was acting like it was manna from heaven...a sea of humanity pressing in trying to get their sandwich first...as they marveled at all of the 3-4 sandwich options. I assessed the fresh sandwich situation...looked at the line that had been formed to even get to the grab a sandwich and go area and there were so many humans wandering around aimlessly or excitedly like they were at the world‘s greatest rock concert that I just decided to fold my hand and not waste another minute trying to get what was probably going to be a low grade sandwich to complain about...so I just weave my way through the mass of humanity back to the parking lot.
I got out to my car and tried to find the quickest way out of there and back onto the highway, of which there is no such thing as a quick way in or out of a Buc-ee’s due to the giant traffic jam in and out. I drove away, shaking my head, saying out loud to myself alone in the car: I will never go to Buc-ees again.
If you’ve never been to Buc-ee’s before, let me give you the abbreviated version of what you’re missing
Imagine being in a nice, clean convenient store blown up 10 times the size of a normal convenience store…or like half the size of a super Walmart -- a place where there’s a giant assembly line/sandwich making space in the middle of this layout and then all around that is a little better than a local flea market/bunch of garbage merchandise for sale. And inside this monstrous facility are so many people wandering around that it has to be a local fire hazard for overcapacity in one place. And if there is a fire, there’s no way you’re ever going to escape because not only are there way too many people in there, but they are not in any type of age or shape where they’re going to get out of anything quickly.
I don’t know how anybody traveling that wants to make a quick stop and go would ever want to take this option. It’s a great concept, but there are so many people there wandering around so endlessly, so slowly, so always in my way to get to anything that there’s nothing that’s worth it to visit there. As I was hightailing it out of the store, zigzagging around humanity -- I was delayed for a moment as an employee was making a stack of some new merchandise...Buc-ees branded little waffle makers, which tells you all you need to know about how this is not a good place to make a quick stop and get out on your travels. I don’t know who or why anyone is making an impulse buy of Buc-ee's branded little waffle makers? You don’t have to answer that question because there were several people waiting for the employee to finish stacking them, so they could pounce.
Never again.
They can keep their cafeteria-quality chopped brisket sandwiches.
FRI 2/7/25
(8:44amET)
-- I found an early top contender for article of the year (with a lot of year to go)...
And also the early top contender for my favorite football person in the industry...
Read it first, then we’ll discuss: https://atozsports.com/nfl/tennessee-titans-news/titans-will-levis-gm-thomas-dimitroff-interview-candidate-qb-quarterback-2025-keep-nfl-news-interview-super-bowl/
I mean...he NAILED it. An actual football person/former/recent GM actually studied the situation/tape of a team’s season, with the intent to earn a job, and he diagnosed/expressed the entire problem correctly...and gave the rightful solution...and I could not mean ‘rightful’ with any more emphasis; they don’t make a font to express my feelings for what Thomas Dimitroff laid out here.
Couple thoughts after reading this:
1) Dimitroff laid out that EXACT plan and did NOT get hired...thus we can only assume the Titans hired a GM who pitched ‘a new QB’ plan/vision and that must have been in agreement with the Titans new President of Ops and the failed 2024 new head coach.
If the Titans powers that be loved Dimitroff’s plan, then he’d be the GM right now. I’d assume/deduce. Because I gotta believe no lower assistant personnel guy interviewing for this job would have the ____s to pitch keeping Levis and blasting (nicely) the O-Line in a job interview.
And I don’t only love the Levis part of this, as a known Levis-lover...I love the 1-2 punch of his plan...build around Levis AND trade the #1 pick. The Titans management didn’t want to hear that, so I’m sure they hired someone who wanted to keep the pick and draft a QB...that’s the ‘cool’ thing to do, not the right thing to do...Dimitroff gave them a master plan, and they rejected it.
And it’s not so much Dimitroff was ‘all-in’ on Levis, although he was a backer...but it’s as much that this draft has Shedeur-Ward as the top QBs, and Dimitroff said that neither are NOT top of the draft QBs...which is absolutely correct.
Maybe Tennessee will steal his idea...I hope they are, but if they loved that plan...why not hire the overqualified guy who gave the plan? You only don't do that, to me, if you don’t want that plan.
2) I also think Dimitroff calling out the O-Line issues, which is 1,418% of the main problem (and he called it out exactly in detail to what the problem was mainly) -- that OL critique is ‘dissing’ Father Callahan’s job done (not done) with the O-Line...quite frankly, he did a terrible job with that O-Line...and I’m sure the Head Coach/Spawn of Callahan was butthurt by that critique of his pops.
It couldn’t have helped Dimitroff getting endeared to the frauds running the Titans during this interview.
3) And this further confirms my fears/thoughts that the #1 problem with the Titans is that they are run by a Nate Hackett-level fraud head coach...and his father...and they don’t want someone to point out the problem or try to clean up their mess.
Look at the 2023 rookie class of highly lauded QBs -- Bryce, Stroud, Richardson, Levis...
Rookie coach Dave Canales took a horrid O-Line and terrible QB and had them actually playing well as the 2024 season went on. A rookie coach with really bad pieces did a fantastic job.
DeMeco Ryans took over a bad Houston team with a rookie QB in 2023 and somehow got them to the playoffs...and then as bad as they regressed in 2024, he got them to the playoffs again and won a playoff game!
Shane Steichen took over a so-so Indy team, lost his rookie QB a few games into 2023...and rode Gardner Minshew to what should’ve been the playoffs in 2023 (over Houston) and then as bad as they were in 2024, he almost got bad-Richardson to the playoffs with a late season run/attempt.
Meanwhile, young Callahan took over in 2024 and developed a worse O-Line, had Levis regress, blew a thousand 4th-quarter leads (that Levis got them to) and ended up with the worst record in football.
All the other young coaches with the 2023 rookie QBs were at least playoff hopefuls down the stretch or turned a major corner the first season under the new HC...except the Titans were embarrassingly bad/worse with their new HC, and they spent a ton of free agent money on the team to boot, but did not spend on the main issue -- O-Line.
Will Levis’s 2024 issue = the Callahan’s...the Titans management.
4) I pray to the God of heaven and earth that the rumors of Levis being traded to the Rams are true. It has been my dream scenario all late 2024 season...bring back Stafford for one more run, develop Levis behind him to take over in 2026 and be insurance for 2025.
I’ll also accept: Levis to Carolina or Detroit, for development.
-- Something I just remembered/connected, while doing team-by-team research for our upcoming 2025 Dynasty top 600 valuations/rankings...
I was looking through the Bears, and I first thought...D’Andre Swift is in a good spot for 2025...new offensive-minded head coach, could be the Gibbs-a-like for Ben Johnson...and then I remembered...
It was Swift who was punted by the Lions in 2023...given away to the Eagles in a trade (that was virtually just a giveaway). Why? Because the Lions management thought Swift was soft and not that great. Ben Johnson was on that management team who would’ve been onboard with that, no? Remember the ‘Hard Knocks’ Lions year...and the way they talked to/yelled at Swift all camp.
Where will Swift go from here (assuming Johnson is going to ditch him again)? Where is there a big Swift market? Just a thought for those holding Swift in Dynasty...
-- Tales from the road…
OK, I might be about to blow your mind. I did not invent this thing that I’m gonna talk about -- but in all my years of traveling, I have never seen such a thing...and I have one of the highest statuses for Marriott for life because of my lifetime accumulated over the past two decades. So, I’ve been to a lot of business travel/midrange hotels.
I discovered something that someone else was doing, in the last week of hotel stays, that is revolutionary…and I’ve now tried it out at three different hotels -- it’s three for three for working perfectly.
You know how most hotels have that annoying do not disturb, flimsy sign that hangs on the door handle? You know the one that 101% of the time falls off at any door movement whatsoever? It always drives me crazy constantly having to account for that do not disturb sign and you can’t help it when you’re opening the door from within, and that door sign is so miserable with its life that it’s constantly trying to commit hara-kiri by plummeting to the floor any chance it gets.
Well, last week I had a hotel stay where they upgraded my room because of my status, and I was so happy because there was hardly anyone in the hotel that day and I felt like I had the place to myself…but wouldn’t you know it? There was someone staying in the room next to me...and not that that’s a big deal but I only knew there was someone in that room because they had a hang sign that said dog/pet in the room. Of all the things, and in the hotel with four levels of rooms, a nice size hotel, barely occupied -- and I’m staying right next-door to someone with a dog in the room. I was sure that I was gonna be driven crazy by that dog, but I was pleasantly surprised that I never even heard that dog, but one time, briefly, in my three day stay.
But here’s the thing, I walked past their door to get to my door it felt like a million times in three days but it took me one and a half days to discover something they had done with their pet in the room sign all along -- instead of hanging the sign on the door handle, they actually used the cutout circle of the hang tag and fashioned it/put it on top of the peephole.
When I first realized it wasn’t a magnet thing or black magic, I thought...what are the odds that a hotel door had some space/wasn’t flush with the peephole on the door and you could put the hang tag on it? So, I tried it with my do not disturb sign and it was a perfect fit and never budged the entire multiple days I was there. It fit so well and gripped so well that it’s almost like the do not disturb sign was meant to be hung from the peephole.
But I also thought -- Maybe it was just this hotel was an anomaly? But my next hotel stay, I hung the sign right up on the peephole and it wasn’t as perfect, but it was 90% good and really gripped in tight. Then my hotel stay this past day...same thing. Hung the do not disturb sign from the peephole, that didn’t have as much space as the other two stays had -- but had enough space to hang on and grip/stick, and I’ve had no issues.
It’s not like being the first person, or the second person, to discover splitting an atom...but it’s close. I feel like I’ve been blessed by God with this travel hack that most of the world has not discovered but now you will remember me forever -- not for my football scouting prowess...but for this hang tag thing.
...cue up a bunch of emails today from people who will say: Yeah, we knew about this for the past 10 years, where have you been, and ruining my day and making me think I’m not a super-genius.
-- Coming up FFM today...
Senior Bowl re-grade series continues with a new position group today.
Bet The Close audio only podcast...we have some technical issues trying on my end from the hotel. So, just me and Chris discussing mostly Super Bowl bets and props...with an unplanned 20-minute deviation to discuss the greatest TV shows of all time wedged in the 2nd-half of the show.
Next scouting report…a WR report…FRI night or SAT am.
THU 2/6/25
-- An odd rabbit hole I went down yesterday via YouTube...
So...I randomly was suggested, then watched, an interview with Carson Wentz discussing what went wrong at the end of his time with Philly. Watching that set off a whole Eagles-based set of YouTube video recommendations from the last few days or so where former players were discussing the Foles v. Wentz Super Bowl year, but then that led to me getting a bunch of video recommendations with ex-Eagles talking about their time with Chip Kelly.
Man, did everyone hate Chip Kelly. Hated him...hated his coaching...hated his practices...hated his decision-making. At best, ex-players were neutral on him.
Good luck with that, Las Vegas!!!
Everybody loves Pete Carroll...everybody hates Chip Kelly, but at least Kelly is not in charge...and maybe he has totally chilled out.
-- Jameis Winston was quoted this week saying he’d love to sign with the Giants...that he’d love to sign anywhere he can get a chance to be a starter.
This got me thinking...
If you only cared about the 2025 season, like it was a do-or-die season (like for the NYG mgt.), and you desperately needed a QB -- would you take Jameis to be your starting QB...or any QB of your choosing from the 2025 NFL Draft? Again, just for THIS upcoming season.
OK, if (IF) you’d reluctantly say ‘Jameis’ over any rookie from this class...then what about Jameis or any other free agent QB? So...Jameis or Darnold or Fields or Russell Wilson?
The obvious answer is ‘Russ’, but that’s gonna cost you. Once Russ is off the table...then who do you choose?
I bring this up because I think Jameis is very viable to be signed as a shock starter while teams ‘pass’ on the weak QB options in the draft...or a team takes one in the draft to develop, not to start right away. Like the Browns SHOULD sign Winston to start if they want to draft Shedeur or Ward (or other), let Winston start and lead the team and help mentor the new QB -- Winston is that kind of guy now, he’s built himself into a decent/good veteran QB and leader.
I’m just saying...Winston may be ‘something’ of a deep sleeper for FF 2025 in 2QB leagues where all QBs are held under lock & key, etc., or whatever type of league has limited QBs available.
Teams that want or need a QB going into the offseason: PIT, LV, CLE, TEN, NYG...possibly IND and NYJ. 5-7 teams looking for QBs with Russ and Darnold as the top desires...then it’s Winston or Fields.
The door is open for the Browns to sign Winston, then take Hunter-Carter at #2...and some other rookie QB later...as one example.
-- Hitting the road today for the final road trip for a while...a few final meetings and up the week at a Super Bowl watch party -- and then we can put the 2024 season to bed and settle into the full-time NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft studies, etc., to get ready for the 2025 NFL/FF/betting season.
Early morning/today, I will post a new scouting report...then I hit the road half the day to get to my first destination. I hope to shoot the Bet The Close podcast with the gang tonight, from my hotel...but we’ll see. The show will go on...with or without me. The BTC Super Bowl YouTube show will drop Friday.
As I was getting my travel stuff together, I wanted to make note of a travel item I acquired late last year...one that has been a huge hit (for me) with my last 2-3 weeks of travels, and I wanted to give it a shout out.
I got a foldable cart that’s like a ‘Transformer’ that can be a stand-up dolly or maneuvered into a small flatbed cart -- and the reason I requested it for Christmas (and my son came through) was I wanted to use it for a luggage cart. Here’s a visual of the item off Amazon: Foldable Hand Truck Heavy Duty 440LB
I travel with A LOT of stuff...giant suitcase for clothes & stuff, a small suitcase of various electronics, a giant bag that is for a large/long computer monitor to work from the hotel...plus a snack bag of assorted stuff. And you know what’s annoying about getting all your gear to your hotel room, after driving to get there? When you check into the hotel, then have to borrow their weird cart, load it up, and get it to your room...then once offloaded, you gotta take the thing back down to the lobby (unless you’re an animal that leaves out in the hallway after you’re done). Then when you leave...you gotta go get a cart and bring it up to the room and do it all over again.
Now that I have my trusty foldable/collapsing cart...I just load my stuff from the car...and it can fit so much stuff/all my stuff (it can hold way more than it seems at a glance), then I use the bungee cord straps to strap it down and roll it all smoothly up to my room, offload everything, and then put the cart in the corner or collapse it out of the way. When it is time to leave, I already got my cart in the room...so just load it, take it down to the car, unload, collapse it and put it in the car and buh-bye. It really collapses conveniently. It’s such a nice little travel convenience item...plus, I can use it around the house for things if needed. But mostly I got it for my travel ease.
If you travel solo a decent amount with multiple items...you may really enjoy having it. Or if you travel with someone...if you both have one...’boom’ it shaves time and hassle off both your luggage transfers.
I’d been looking at this cart for three years, thinking about trying it...but not believing it would be worth it, or it would be too much of a hassle...or being too cheap to pull the trigger. It was ready to go out of the box and only took me a few minutes to figure out how to change its shape and collapse. And it has exceeded my expectations.
-- Coming up FFM today...
Senior Bowl re-grade series continues with a new position group today.
New scouting report out today.
Shooting the BTC pod tonight, and it will be out Friday.
WED 2/5/25
(7:15amET)
-- So, Cooper Kupp is getting traded. How did this happen? The guy was one of the best, if not thee best in the game in 2021-2022...then he hurt his foot, missed some time, and a 5th-round draft pick WR (Puka) just swooped in and made Kupp irrelevant.
And while Kupp was sidelined, he was helping coach/teach Puka his entire rookie preseason to get him ready for what turned out to be an instant/shocking explosion onto the scene. So...like...Kupp is totally useless for the Rams now? They don’t want two good WRs to stay with Stafford for another run?
Whatever happened has happened...I’m not sure why the Rams are so hyped on trading/dumping Kupp. Yes, Kupp is not as good as he used to be and he’s aging out quickly -- he will be 32+ years old this season and has been battling foot issues for the past couple years. I can see the Rams reasoning, but it just seems like they could renegotiate his deal and let him end his career as a Ram...as long as Matt Stafford is returning. If they are going to punt on Stafford (not likely) then I get dumping Kupp and rebuilding the offense, but if Stafford is coming back...why not go one more year with Kupp there for a variety of reasons? Why trade/dump him AND eat a lot of his contract? Why not just let him play/give what he can for the money they’re gonna pay?
Where will Kupp go? I think the Rams will let him have some say in the matter. He’ll be shipped to the AFC, I assume. My first guess is New England...but also consider there’s 715 spawns of McVay out there as head coaches and O-Cs in the league, and I would assume one of them would love to have the steady play/leadership of Kupp, a WR they know well. I’ll assume Kupp will be sent to an AFC team that has an ex-Rams/McVay guy on the staff.
Houston could be a spot with their new, young ex-Rams O-C just hired...and they just let Diggs go, or not...Diggs and Kupp with Nico, with Tank likely out for the year/career.
Denver might have an interest.
A wild card NFC entry into the sweepstakes could be the Falcons with O-C Zak Robinson, former Rams assistant...but I don’t think the Rams want Kupp in the conference facing him in the playoffs...if they can help it.
My nagging thought about this Kupp trade news -- if the Rams don’t want Kupp anymore, so much so they won’t re-work his deal and are going to eat a lot of money to move him...why would another team want Kupp? Surely, another team isn’t going to pay up for what the Rams don’t want?
-- Travis Kelce sounds like he’s coming back for the 2025 season, from interviews at the Super Bowl...and why shouldn’t he? He’ll be 36+ years old next season, so he’s fine on that front. I’m sure he’s able to buy the greatest supplements and performance enhancers that are available. 35+ is the new 28+ in the NFL...especially at TE there seems to be extra longevity.
2024 was one of Kelce’s worst seasons...you have to go back to his early career to find his production as low/lower. His performance peaks are fading but he’s still some kind of FF TE1 level hope if he’s back for the 2025 season.
-- Coming up FFM today...
The FFM/NFL Awards tournament finishes today...as the NFL announces their award winners THU night.
Senior Bowl re-grade series continues with a new position group today.
Next scouting report out will be out THU...as we’re getting ready to have a slew of them pumping out for the next 3+ months. Senior Bowl week is over, my traveling slows down/stops for a bit after the Super Bowl week.
I am working on that Senior Bowl game report that has turned into a monster -- a State of the Union (on this draft class) + game notes + scouting notes. I didn’t plan it...it just hit me, and I’m running with it. You’ll see why I call it a ‘monster’ when you read it...and it’s an important monster to consider on the draft with some individual player bombshells -- that will now be out today, I hope...I hope to finish this mega-report today. It should/will be worth the wait.
TUE 2/4/25
(8:07amET)
-- I don’t know if the Chip Kelly hiring by the Raiders to be the new O-C at an exorbitant rate is a good thing or a great thing or a ‘who cares’ thing?
It’s a name we all recognize and have some level of respect for...and Ohio State did win the CFB title and OSU had good offensive numbers -- but the numbers are really no different than the million O-Cs before him at Ohio State. The QBs throw for lots of yards, they RB/s run for big numbers, and they have a minimum two top NFL WR prospects to throw to -- it’s the same story for the past decade at OSU.
I think Kelly is smart and good at his job and maybe better than half+ the other NFL O-Cs, but he’s not a magician anymore -- the guy who rose Oregon to greatness 15 years ago then had a decent start with the Eagles, saved by Nick Foles...then when Foles was hurt/gone Kelly’s Eagles tanked and he got fired then went to the 49ers to be the head coach and got fired after one season (2-14 record)...then he went to UCLA and got them up to a mediocre program and left to become the offensive coordinator for Ohio State, a place where probably anyone with any decent, basic skills/experience could’ve been a successful O-C.
Chip Kelly was a disruptor, trendsetter 10+ years ago...then everyone copied his style, modified it and surpassed him as he had no real ‘second act’. I’m not sure how that warrants an O-C contract 2x+ most O-Cs, but it’s Mark Davis’s dad’s money...so Tom Brady can overspend it how he wishes.
I think Chip Kelly is a really smart employee -- he got out of the rat race (quit being a head coach) and just decided to be a highly paid assistant and doing what he enjoys doing...and the NFL is gonna pay him a mint for it because it was amazing 10+ years ago. It’s totally fine. Kelly may be a top 10 O-C...may be a top 5 O-C...may be a bottom 10 O-C if they don’t fix the QB and O-Line. Kelly’s a good coach, an experienced coach, one whose heyday has passed and he’ll happily take your giant money bag to call plays for a living. Someone has to be the O-C for Vegas. Chip Kelly is as good a name and experience out there. He’ll be as good as the weapons they give him to work with. No more, no less.
Kelly is a run game coach. Pete Carroll is a run game coach. The Raiders are gonna RUN.
Who their main RB is for the 2025 season will be a top 1-3 Dynasty Rookie Draft pick.
Our mock draft expert’s first 1.0 mocks of the season both independently projected Ashton Jeanty to be picked by Vegas at #6. That would be a chocolate meets peanut butter moment for FF output.
-- Seeing the Carroll/Kelly run game bent going to Las Vegas...made me think -- is every new coaching situation going to the run game?
Dallas = Schottenheimer is a big time run game guy, and he just hired a run game/O-Line experienced O-C.
New England = Run game Mike Vrabel...antithesis to the pass game Vrabel.
Jacksonville = Liam Coen...big time run game guy.
Four of the 6 NFL HC openings were filled by coaches who are run-game oriented and they then hired run game guys as their O-Cs.
The situations that break the trends are the Bears and the Jets...the two Dan Campbell guys hired...they snagged very young, progressive more pass game oriented offensive coordinators that we’ll get into in the days to come.
However, Coen appears likely to hire a young gun passing game coordinator to be his O-C...but Coen is going to be the one calling the plays, so I’d guess ‘run game it is’.
-- In case you missed this odd story...released during Super Bowl week where it can potentially sail by the heavy scrutiny/visibility:
-- Coming up FFM today...
New scouting report out today...as we’re getting ready to have a slew of them pumping out for the next 3+ months. Senior Bowl week is over, my traveling slows down/stops for a bit after the Super Bowl week.
The FFM/NFL Awards tournament finishes this MON-TUE (the Conf. Final Fours) and the finals on WED with the NFL announcing their awards THU night.
Senior Bowl re-grade series continues with a new position group today.
I am working on a Senior Bowl game report that has turned into a monster -- a State of the Union (on this draft class) + game notes + scouting notes. I didn’t plan it...it just hit me, and I’m running with it. You’ll see why I call it a ‘monster’ when you read it...and it’s an important monster to consider on the draft with some individual player bombshells -- that will now be out late TUE but probably more so WED as I try to finish this mega-report. It should/will be worth the wait.
MON 2/3/2025
(7:30amET)
-- Quick side note on something that I have heard a couple times the past two weeks, and am always struck by it, but it may not be common knowledge yet...and has some ‘subject to change’ (on the timing/details), but...
Jacksonville is set to start construction/renovation on their stadium this month...reduced seating in 2025 and 2026, with a possible increased number of games in London during this time...in 2027 they will not be able to use their home stadium at all and it’s unsure where they even will play that season. Possibly London...possibly Orlando...possibly a split of those two or other Florida venues to consider.
-- I made note/had some hope for Will Levis last week when it was revealed that noted QB coach Jordan Palmer was going to be working with Levis. I wrote the following note about it a few days+ ago:
A possible sign of the Titans NOT counting on a QB in this year’s draft...
Yesterday’s NBC headline: Titans coach Brian Callahan said Will Levis will work with independent quarterback coach Jordan Palmer this offseason.
Before you blow by that note as not that important...note that Jordan Palmer worked with Joe Burrow, and that’s where Callahan would have some overlap/connection with Palmer, so it was likely Callahan’s setup. That’s a hopeful sign for Levis.
Jordan Palmer agreeing to take on Levis is also a good sign. Palmer doesn’t waste his time...he’s worked with many of the top QBs (including Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, etc.). That he’s willing to work with Levis is a good thing for all us remaining, aggravated Dynasty holders of Levis.
Think about it -- if this draft class stinks at QB, what else can Tennessee do? Their best option is to fix Levis. As they should...he’s better than any QB in this class.
And I don’t care if anyone scoffs at my claims about Levis. I’ve been through everyone being so sure that other temporarily failed NFL QBs, ones the NFL mocked and wrote off at the first hint of trouble/for not ‘pleasing’ them like with Nick Foles, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and the list goes on.
My Levis thoughts triggered staunch Shedeur Sanders-going-#1-in-the-draft ‘truther’, Ross Jacobs, to quickly send me a text: Levis working with Palmer is nice, but it won’t preclude them from taking a QB. They are wise to keep working with him regardless, but competition is coming whether it’s a vet or rookie. Could still be Abdul Carter with the first pick but he’s not as good a prospect as the NFL usually likes to take that high.
My reaction to Ross’s thoughts, and some other people’s reaction to this news as well:
It’s very legit, 2-legit (boooo), that Shedeur could be chosen #1 overall by TEN...despite the fact I do not believe it will happen AND I think the NFL will (quietly) turn on Shedeur and he will fall in the draft to the later 1st-round -- because I believe that no team management or ownership in their right mind would welcome the Shedeur and Deion circus into town (but there’s always someone...Jerry...). Shedeur is the kind of personality/aura coaches abhor, especially in a QB -- and he’s not that good. If he were ‘generational’, etc., then he would go #1/be worth a risk...but he’s not. This is my thesis. But would they draft Cam Ward instead? Maybe...maybe not. I think this weak QB class opens the door for an alternative QB plan.
Three additional thoughts about Levis working with Palmer, and TEN not drafting a QB...
1) If the Titans were planning to draft a QB at #1, they would then be like most every team who has given up on their higher picked QB attempt...when they are making a change to a rookie, they trade away the old franchise QB attempt.
Like let’s say Caleb Williams was in THIS draft and Tennessee has the #1 pick, and we KNEW the Titans were gonna pick Caleb -- they would move Levis out ahead of that, like the Bears moved Justin Fields ahead of Caleb’s arrival, etc. You don’t have young competition of any kind awaiting your #1 overall pick QB.
If the Titans were drafting Sanders/Ward, Levis would be on the move.
2) If Levis was ‘done’/’gone’ in the Titans’ coaches/management’s mind, then they would not bother wasting their time/money or calling in a favor with Jordan Palmer to work with Levis. Why spend money or effort training Levis more just to deal/dump him in a few weeks?
3) Jordan Palmer wouldn’t work with Levis if he didn’t think there was salvageable talent there AND I don’t think Palmer would do this favor/work for Callahan, if the intention was to trade Levis. Just an assumption by me...all of it assumptions/theory.
I think all roads lead to Tennessee signing or trading for a veteran QB to start and work/mentor Levis...whether that is Andy Dalton (that has been rumored) or a Kirk Cousins or even a low-key trade for a Callahan favorite -- Jake Browning (currently of CIN). And thus, the door for Levis later in 2025 or to begin 2026 is open/possible...or even crushes in the preseason and is a Week 1 starter in 2025.
And all of this brought about because this particular draft doesn’t have an obvious franchise QB to take at #1. If it were 2023 or 2024, and TEN had the #1 pick...Levis is gone, Jordan Palmer is not contacted, and a QB would be selected.
Anything is possible with NFL teams, so who knows what the Titans wake up and think tomorrow...but my leading theory is a veteran QB of some note is coming in soon, with Levis trying to rehab himself, and thus the door is open to drafting Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter...or trade the pick.
-- Coming up FFM today...
The next scouting report MON/TUE as we’re getting ready to have a slew of them pumping out for the next 3+ months. Senior Bowl week is over, my traveling slows down/stops for a bit after the Super Bowl week.
The FFM/NFL Awards tournament finishes this MON-TUE (the Conf. Final Fours) and the finals on WED with the NFL announcing their awards THU night.
Senior Bowl re-grade series start today with the TEs.
I am working on a Senior Bowl game report that has turned into a monster -- a State of the Union (on this draft class) + game notes + scouting notes. I didn’t plan it...it just hit me, and I’m running with it. You’ll see why I call it a ‘monster’ when you read it...and it’s an important monster to consider on the draft with some individual player bombshells -- that will now be out MON/TUE possibly WED as I try to finish this mega-report. It should be worth the wait.
-- Crumbl report...
Last week: Didn’t get any. I actually went to order Saturday for my guy’s weekend/Royal Rumble watch party, and they were sold out of about everything where I was at, so no taste reviews.
This week:
Lemon Blueberry Cheesecake...I could do this.
Chocolate Crumb (Oreo) Cookie...I’d take a shot.
Churro Cake...a first, and I’m very much IN!
Sea Salt Toffee Cookie...maybe.
Brownie Batter Cookie...too much chocolate for me.
Strawberry Pretzel Pie...What? It’s a pie? Oh man...probably getting suckered in on this too.
Peanut Butter (Snickers) Cookie...I’ve had before, not as good as I thought.
Here’s what they look like: https://youtu.be/13DBJaPvNAc?si=jWF_XV26pANnhB07