Game overview:
This game outcome can be best followed along by the way I bet it pre-and-in-game (and lost with my overall bets on the game ATS)...
Pre-game, I bet lightly on Buffalo (+1.5)...on Sunday a week ago, after the Division Round had ended...just a hunch that this was the year for the Bills. I was prepared to grab some KC bets mid-week IF Bills ace CB Christian Benford got ruled out for the game, but he was cleared to play...so, I stuck with just the little Buffalo bet.
The game was close early on, I felt decent about Buffalo still...then I saw Benford go down, and out, and I started grabbing KC bets ATS at -3.5, -4.5, -6.5, etc., while KC had a lead at the time and was driving for more...but then KC fumbled away a drive and Buffalo took the lead 10-7 off that and I went and added more KC at -1.5, +1.5, etc. I was sure the Benford injury would ultimately lock this in for KC, and likely with a two-score win.
But then in the 4th-quarter, when the Bills were about to tie the game late...I started to add Buffalo Moneyline win bets at like +200, +250 odds, trying to hedge my KC bets. I had darts thrown at this game in all directions and then KC went up by three, and Buffalo blew their drive to tie/win and KC got the late first downs to put it away...if KC would’ve gotten stopped on their final rive and had to kick a late field goal...I would’ve been a net ‘winner’ on all the bets...a 3-point win was a bad spot and I was a net ‘loser’ betting ATS-wise. Prop betting was a different story...$$$ :)
Buffalo fails again. The Chiefs always find a way. I don’t know, but I think Allen might have gotten that 1st-down on the 4th-down play -- but it made me think...it shows the difference of teams who constantly go for it on 4th-down and convert them pretty easily and teams, like the Bills, who are not as cavalier all year on play style -- and they choked in a big spot running a generic/obvious play...you can’t have a 4th & 1 be that close with Josh Allen at QB doing the ‘tush push’ or QB sneak, and fail to obviously/no question convert. Buffalo played well enough to win, and so did KC...but KC has nine-lives and wins again...setting up the rematch of Philly-KC, which as a ‘fan’ I want to see KC, not Buffalo in the Super Bowl. More plot twists and intrigue with KC in it...as I hope Philly blows them to kingdom come...but probably won’t.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- For whatever it is worth...just sitting and watching these two QBs work this game, if you only had this game to judge by, you’d swear Josh Allen (22-34 for 237 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 11-39-0) was the elite QB of the two, and that Patrick Mahomes (18-26 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 11-43-2) was the lesser of the two.
Allen was more money on his throws in this game...he had the more ‘wow’ moments. But the 4th-down QB sneak that didn’t convert and the late game Dalton Kincaid ‘miss’ (catch) on 4th-down...cost Buffalo/Allen the scoreboard win the ascension over/past Mahomes. That may have been a 1st-down run/QB sneak on the big 4th-down play that would’ve changed the momentum of the game for good. Allen didn’t cost Buffalo this game...somehow fate or divine intervention did, because Allen was the better QB here.
-- Speaking of Dalton Kincaid (2-13-0/4)...now, it makes a little more sense...
After the game, it was revealed by another player to the press that Kincaid has been playing with a torn PCL in the 2nd-half of the season. That answers for some of the lack of production, but I think Joe Brady/Josh Allen are still the real reason -- they just aren’t featuring the TE. They haven’t been ever since Brady took over midway through the 2023 season.
-- Speaking of players whose 2024 season ended like crap...Isiah Pacheco (5-12-0, 2-12-0/2) has lost his starting job (weeks ago) and this game was another reminder of that. Kareem Hunt (17-64-1, 1-6-0/1) is the main man now.
I think people believe that Pacheco got hurt, rushed back, isn’t right...and that’s why he has struggled since his return. I don’t think so. I think Hunt has simply outplayed Pacheco, and any non-top tier RB who gets hurt and there’s a decent replacement under them -- they’ll be in danger of getting replaced as well.
It’s the future in the NFL...all the day-three rookie draft picks from 2024 just walked into the league and mowed through it just fine, when given the chance. There’s simply too much talent coming from the CFB ranks to not have committee RBs or hot hand RBs...or just depth at RB, and when an injury happens to the #1...the #2 is just as/more talented and gets a shot to seize the job. We’re gonna see this happening like an epidemic in the next few years.
I pushed the following narrative before Pacheco even returned to action: If you own Pacheco, in Dynasty, if anyone in your league sees the scenario where he just needs an offseason to heal, and he’ll be back to being an RB1 -- I’m trading him to that person as-if. I’m not throwing away Pacheco, but I am not valuing him as an RB1 for 2025...so if someone is, I’ll make that trade/bet.
-- It blows my mind that Xavier Worthy (6-85-1/7) is leading the way for KC, by a distance...as DeAndre Hopkins (1-11-0/2) and Hollywood Brown (3-35-0/5) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (2-60-0/3) just crumble to the ground.
Again, the talent flooding into the NFL from the college ranks is blowing up all the axioms of how to play/manage a Dynasty team. No one cares about Worthy as much had Rashee Rice stayed healthy...but here we are.
When Rice comes back next season...what happens then? He probably gets suspended for half-a-season and Worthy pops again. When Rice is back, really back...he may get dumped behind Worthy for targets by Mahomes...as Worthy is getting many-many games with Mahomes while Rice is out (now and when he’s suspended). It’s just the way of the world now...scenes are shifting so fast in the NFL because of the college talent flood. You can’t give your talented backup an opportunity or you could lose your spot in line/your job.
-- Mack Hollins (3-73-1/4) is set to be a free agent again. He’s been with PHI, MIA, LV, ATL, BUF in his 8-year career. He looked like the best WR on the field in this game...definitely Buffalo’s best. How he gets looked past every year and guys like Gabe Davis get a truckload of free agent money is the difference of how smart teams and dumb teams are run/where the smart and dumb GMs are.
I suspect Hollins will return to Buffalo...because he was the starter most of the year, and he had some of his best career numbers here in 2024. And the league will look past him again/get afraid that he’ll be 32-years-old next season opener, so there will be no real market for him...maybe.
-- O-C Joe Brady didn’t get the job in New Orleans, so he will be back with Buffalo next season. If he’s back, and most of the players are under contract and returning...you can bet they’ll have the same offense/offensive philosophy. So, James Cook (13-85-2, 3-49-0/3) is an RB1. Ray Davis (2-4-0) awaits in the wings. Dalton Kincaid is FF screwed. And Khalil Shakir (6-46-0/7) will lead the way in targets but be a WR2/3 and everyone else at WR will be a random event/target not worth much for FF.
The biggest question/issue, to me, is -- if Mack Hollins returns, it hurts Keon Coleman’s (1-12-0/4) value. And if they let Hollins go, then there’s hope Coleman can get to a WR2/3 status as well.
-- I guess the Bills tried to ‘take out’ Travis Kelce (2-19-0/4)...but it usually doesn’t work (for a final score/win), Mahomes just plays off that and works with the other guys. I mean, I guess you might as well try to stop Kelce and dare Worthy and the WRs to beat you. It worked the first time...(2-8-0/4) for Kelce in the regular season matchup, then the 2-19-0/4 here...but KC scored 32 points and won, so...
Is Kelce about to play his last NFL game of his career in the Super Bowl? I doubt it. Why should he stop playing? He’s able to do all his other fun off-field stuff otherwise...he can keep piling on stats and titles and acclaim, so why not keep playing? He’ll be 36+ years old next season...that probably leaves him another 2-3 years to be a solid performer on the field. Antonio Gates played until he was 38+.
I’m sure Kelce is getting all the legal HGH and stem cells and whatever else that money can buy, so I wouldn’t doubt him until it’s obviously ‘over’, physically/speed wise.
-- Rookie SAF Cole Bishop (10 tackles) had to start for Taylor Rapp and accounted for himself well...leading the game in tackles. Bishop will be another in a long line of really good Buffalo Bill safeties in recent seasons.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Kelce
54 = Worthy
43 = Marquise B
38 = JuJu
29 = Gray
12 = Hopkins
11 = Watson
38 = Hunt
19 = Pacheco
10 = Perine
07 = Steele
44 = Knox
33 = Kincaid
33 = Cook
30 = Ty J
09 = Ray Davis
57 = Shakir
49 = Hollins
39 = Coleman
32 = Amari
14 = C Sam
