Game overview:
The party finally ended for the Commanders. A nice run, but now I think back to their first playoff game and Baker Mayfield botching a snap and turning it over to Washington to open the door to the first Commanders upset. This game, it was Washington that was the victim of the turnover -- 4 turnovers, 3 fumbles and a pick.
And Washington was also the victim of the better team. You can’t give the Eagles homefield plus a 4-to-0 turnover advantage and expect to win. I was wondering, all week, if Jalen Hurts was hurt more than let on, and that would be the window for the Commanders to try for the upset...but Hurts was fine and Philly scored half-a-hundred+.
Washington lost, but I don’t think Commanders fans are too depressed...they went much further than expected and are now a team of the future decade+, so it’s a great time to be a Commanders fan...the rare loss that doesn’t really feel that bad. Probably what the Packers felt like last playoffs...but Washington has WAY more upside into the future.
Philadelphia moves on...and is probably my favorite to win it all...but all I can think about is the Rams having 3rd-down and 4 in the Philly red zone, down 6 points, with under a minute remaining, but then took a sack and blew the upset win that was in their grasp. No matter...the Eagles are onto the Super Bowl.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- Jalen Hurts (20-28 for 246 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-16-3) played a little bit protective of his knee, but he played well overall on it...like it really didn’t bother him, but he made sure not to take any unnecessary risks. He did get 3 rushing TDs but was well under his rushing yard prop that I bet under (34.5).
He has two weeks to heal, to get ready to have his revenge on KC. He should be 100% for that game.
-- Dallas Goedert (7-85-0/8) in the playoffs this season: 5.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 62.7 rec. yards, 0.33 TDs per game.
He seems to be Hurts’ 1st/2nd favorite target of late...putting DeVonta Smith (4-45-0/4) into the background as a #3 option this playoffs season -- 4.0 rec. (4.0 targets), 40.3 rec. yards, 0.0 TDs per game in the 2024-25 playoffs.
DeVonta tailed off after Philly’s early season BYE, where they shifted to heavy Saquon after that. DeVonta’s bigger games, since the BYE (v. DAL-WSH-PIT), when Goedert missed some games late season.
DeVonta Smith’s yards in games post bye week and when Goedert not out, starting with most recent: 46-21-55-37-29-14-87-85-(-2)-64. Over 50 yards one time in his last 6 games with Goedert playing/post BYE...with an average of 34.4 yards per game.
-- WSH rookie TE Ben Sinnott (1-23-0/1) made a huge catch in this game, early on...on that fake punt throw. Otherwise, he’s still just a backup.
Zach Ertz (11-104-0/16) is 34+ years old but still playing fine...the whole ‘age thing’ has to be shifted, as we’ve been railing on for 3 years now...as FF analysts will still show charts and graphs on how player production tails off with age...but that’s taking old data into consideration. The world, for players and age and performance, has changed starting 3-5 years ago. Kelce and Ertz may play until close to age 40, at this rate.
But Ertz IS a free agent now...will he go back to Washington? Will Washington ‘pass’ and get onto the Sinnott era in 2025? I’m not 100% sure. It probably depends on what Kliff Kingsbury does -- the two (KK and Ertz) are close. Kliff stays, and Ertz is probably back. Kliff takes the head coaching job at New Orleans, and Ertz is probably headed there...maybe?
-- Dyami Brown (3-42-0/5) and Olamide Zaccheaus (4-26-0/5) had good starts to this game but then fizzled as Jayden seemed to just throw every pass to Ertz and spread it around otherwise.
Terry McLaurin (3-51-1/7) had a great catch and run TD on Darius Slay (who got legally picked on the play) but otherwise Slay/Mitchell put a lid on McLaurin for the third time this season. Terry got TDs on Philly this season, but was held to 51-60-10 yards in his three games v. PHI.
-- Another ‘win’ for the Eagles defense...keeping high powered offenses in check on the regular. The Eagles are (15-1) since their Week 5 BYE...the transition to Saquon heavy offense...and the emergence of Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, among others.
And all credit to Howie Roseman/RC apologies on my Jalen Carter hate when they drafted him. I thought he was overblown and going to be an off-field nightmare...definitely not worth the pick as high in the draft. But he has been good/worth it. Still overblown somewhat, to me, but way better than I projected.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Ekeler
41 = B Rob
68 = McLaurin
63 = Ertz
61 = Dyami
57 = Zacchaeus
23 = Crowder
21 = Bates
01 = Sinnott
63 = AJ Brown
59 = DeVonta
58 = Goedert
39 = Dotson
31 = Calcaterra
17 = J Wilson
