Game overview:
I was rooting for Buffalo...I bet on Buffalo for the Moneyline win...for no more reason than ‘a hunch’ and going against the momentum the media, and thus the fans, had for the Ravens. I’m not a big believer in Lamar in big spots...and I do buy the Bills Dec./Jan. prowess. It was all simplistic logic, in my mind...and all of it came together for a Bills ‘upset’ win and advance to the AFC Finals.
Honestly, the Ravens could’ve easily won this game. They played right with Buffalo...and the Andrews key drops in this game, especially the one at the end of the game...it could’ve easily been a Ravens win. Baltimore outgained Baltimore 416 to 273 yards...and the Ravens converted 70% of their 3rd-downs...but the Ravens had 3 turnovers and Buffalo had none. Five Ravens penalties...just one for Buffalo. Buffalo played comfortably at home, they didn’t make mistakes...the Ravens made the mistakes, including dropped passes.
Baltimore is jettisoned from the playoffs short of expectations, again. Lamar has never won a second playoff game in his career. John Harbaugh won a Super Bowl in 2012, and in the 12 years since he’s (4-7) in the playoffs with one conference final made (2023) in that span. We see the same pattern with coaches like Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy...they win a Super Bowl early in their tenure as HC, then a history of good regular seasons but never Super Bowl appearances/titles again for a decade+; just playoff failures over-and-over. But if you win one Super Bowl and have a lot of winning records in the regular season from there -- you can stay employed for 10+ years. Purely based on ‘the numbers’...Payton-Tomlin-McCarthy-Carroll getting play for HC openings of late, while everyone dismisses Bill Belichick (off to college) is odd, to say the least.
Buffalo goes on to Kansas City, to see if they can exercise their demons of always falling to the Chiefs. This ‘feels’ like the year...with no data or anything to support that -- it just feels like ‘the year’ for Buffalo to get past KC (then to lose to the NFC in the Super Bowl).
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- Lamar Jackson (18-25 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 6-39-0) had two turnovers, and that was a big reason why the Ravens lost, in the end...but as I mentioned earlier, otherwise the Ravens were fine. The offense was driving the ball down the field at will...just blowing drives with turnovers and drops.
I’m not crucifying Lamar for this loss. He’ll eventually break through. He shouldn’t be the 2024 (or 2023) MVP, but he also shouldn’t be blamed for another fall-short in the playoffs here. He was fine/good...just unlucky.
-- What maybe brought down the Ravens short of a title game is...something that I have criticized and complained about and feared as a reason why the Ravens 2024 could fall short -- is they get too cute with Derrick Henry (16-84-1, 0-0-0/2) rotations and telegraph their offense by whether he is in or out.
Yes, Henry dropped a pass early in the game that might have been a 50+ yard TD...but it was a slippery ball, thrown down at his knees, and he’s not Larry Fitzgerald. BUT STILL GO TO HIM AGAIN in the passing game...it was just one ‘miss’!!! They don’t stop throwing to Mark Andrews when he drops passes or not kick field goals because Justin Tucker is struggling, but they don’t even think about getting Henry involved in an easy, sneaky way in the passing game.
Baltimore wants to keep pulling Henry for passing down scenarios but that puts the defense at total ease, when he’s out...and they have the understanding that the Ravens are probably about to pass...and when Henry comes back in, they’re more likely to run. More Henry in the game, all downs, confuses the defense...and they could’ve had another ‘Henry leaks out of the backfield and is left wide open’ play where they could’ve had him take one of his patented screens for 30-50+ yards. But nope! He dropped a poorly thrown pass early, so no reason to ever think about throwing to him on purpose again...we’ll beat them with Justice Hill!!
Derrick Henry with 20 or more carries in a game this season = Baltimore is (9-0).
Derrick Henry with less than 20 carries in a game this season = Baltimore is (4-6).
Derrick Henry playing more than 60% of the snaps in games this season = (9-0)
Derrick Henry playing less than 60% of the snaps in games this season = (4-6)
I’m just saying.
Lamar is not only NOT the 2024 MVP of the league...he isn’t even the 2024 MVP on his own team.
-- Mark Andrews (5-61-0/7) has been a great TE and all for years, and still has some usefulness left in him...but Baltimore has Isaiah Likely (4-73-1/5) ready to sprout wings and fly...fly to be a top 3 FF TE. It’s time to pull the plug on Andrews, get something good for him in trade, and move on...but I seriously doubt Harbaugh would do it.
Andrews has one year remaining on his contract...pay him $17M for 2025...or cut him for a $6M hit. The Ravens could do a lot with that extra money. But Harbaugh is probably too tied to/vested in Andrews to be cold blooded with him.
-- Another game where the Bills receiver group is a little Khalil Shakir (6-67-0/7)...and everyone else is meaningless. Keon Coleman (1-5-0/1)...Amari Cooper (0-0-0/1)...Mack Hollins (1-12-0/2)...Curtis Samuel (2-9-0/2)...they’ve all done nothing for a month+ now, except Samuel is oddly/suddenly seeing some more work when he was totally ignored most of the season. It’s just the way the Bills offense is going -- big run game, short passing game, don’t worry about the downfield throws unless you’re behind in games...and even then, the work is more going to just Shakir and the RBs.
-- Also getting stiffed in this new offensive flow or philosophy...their tight ends, specifically Dalton Kincaid. He doesn’t even play more snaps than Dawson Knox anymore.
This entire 2024 season, the ace TE receiving weapon, Dalton Kincaid, has not had ONE game over 55 yards receiving. 2 TDs all season.
Why exactly did Buffalo move up in the draft to get Kincaid? Because they desperately wanted ‘their Kelce’, after getting thumped by Kelce in the playoffs. Kincaid was starting to roll his rookie season, but then the Bills dumped Ken Dorsey as O-C midseason, and when they elevated Joe Brady to the spot...it’s been downhill ever since for Kincaid.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Henry
24 = J Hill
37 = Bateman
29 = Wallace
26 = Agholor
41 = Shakir
40 = K Coleman
32 = Hollins
21 = Amari
19 = C Sam
35 = Knox
31 = Kincaid
