Game overview:
Dan Quinn out-Dan Campbell’d, Dan Campbell here. It’s so wonderful to see teams actually ‘playing to win’ and not ‘trying to not-lose’, like most every NFL team the past century tries to not-lose. Quinn has ‘goodwill’ chips in his account to be able to ‘go for it’ and not be criticized, right now. Dan Campbell does too, but what did the first post-mortem article that I skimmed this week, concerning the Lions, have as a central theme? It was a piece about how Dan Campbell needs to reel it back in and ‘be smarter’ about when to go for 4th-downs. The very thing that helped made his team dominant needs to be squashed because they lost a game, and fans/the media had their precious feelings hurt because their team lost a game and you can’t feel happy and brag about YOUR team down at the local neighborhood bar after a long day’s work in the coal mines, or whatever it is way-too-invested football fans do for a living -- now that has to be all ‘reeled back in’ because a fan/media member is ‘sad’ their team lost a game. They probably took a mental health day to cope with this personal devastation.
You can never win with the media...or fans. Unless you win every game and every title...there will be someone there to complain about it. Just like Fantasy Football...there’s always someone to complain about something. I have not heard a peep about my Marvin Harrison scouting nuclear bomb this past season, but I have heard all about Will Levis not being good this past season. It’s just the way humans are wired. It’s probably why FF is such a national pastime...not for the enjoyment of the game and competition -- but to complain about stuff. I’m as guilty as anyone.
Dan Quinn was the aggressor here...his team played like they were the favorites from the opening snap. Washington got out to a quick multi-score lead, and when the Lions closed to a 3-point deficit by the end of the 3rd-quarter, the Commanders just put the hammer down and put Detroit away, so it wasn’t even a concern in the final minutes. A thorough beating by Washington, against a really good Detroit team.
The Lions have to spend an entire offseason wondering ‘what might have been’ if half of their defense wasn’t out injured this season. Added to that, they will be replacing Ben Johnson...and probably replacing Aaron Glenn this offseason as well. A lot of turmoil for what will be a top NFL team for 2025. We’ll get a great insight into just how good/great (or not) of a head coach/CEO Dan Campbell is over the next two years as he has to rebuild his staff.
The Commanders are on an amazing run. Credit Dan Quinn’s aggressive coaching style (stolen from Campbell). Credit Jayden Daniels for allowing Quinn to be aggressive...imagine ‘going for it’ a lot with Mac Jones as your QB? Credit the Chicago Bears for once again whiffing on what to do at QB...and NOT taking Daniels #1. But I think the most credit goes to Adam Peters, the new GM for Washington -- an excellent free agency period and top NFL Draft in 2024...I can’t recall a team having both a top 3-5 free agency period (as we judged it post-free agency period) and a top 3 NFL Draft, all in the same year. Peters left the 49ers to go to Washington in 2024, and the 49ers went from NFC Champs to last place in the division. Coincidence? Maybe.
Welcome the Washington Commanders to ‘the power teams in the NFL’ club.
...a lot of it made possible by Bears GM Ryan Poles...GM of the Year 2024 for Houston and Washington, simultaneously, for NOT taking C.J. Stroud or Jayden Daniels #1 when he had the chance.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- What’s gotten into Dyami Brown (6-98-0/8)? When did he become the best WR in the NFL, all of a sudden?
After a ‘who cares’ regular season of limited snap and targets, Brown is averaging, in the playoffs, 5.5 rec., 93.5 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game. He’s hot as a pistol.
Three things that come to mind for me on Dyami, for right now...
1) Was a very productive, deep ball WR at UNC...working with Sam Howell’s two nice college seasons. Was the #82 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
2) Battled ‘drops’ all his career, even back into college. It was usually ‘deep ball or bust’, stretch the field work for Dyami -- but recently he’s been more used as a ‘screen pass and go’ WR, and now/lately catches the ball with full confidence and is running the ball with full confidence. Kudos to the Washington staff, and to Dyami, for getting past early NFL struggles and starting to become a bit of a weapon for Washington.
3) Before you start draining your 401K to put it all on Dyami OVER 40+ yards this week against the Eagles...
(a) Washington just faced two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, TB and DET, and...
(b) The Commanders tend to get a non-McLaurin WR hot for about 1-2-3 weeks, then totally turn on them and go to another WR. It was just 3 or so weeks ago that Olamide Zaccheaus blew up opponents and was the hottest WR for the FF playoffs, but he got no catches on 2 targets here. Washington could go back to him quickly, or just for this matchup with PHI (where he had a 5-70-2/8 game against them just a few weeks ago).
-- We thought Austin Ekeler (6-47-0, 4-41-0/4) would be the X-factor for output for Washington in this game...and he was. The perfect complimentary back that you can count on to be a lead back if needed...but really is a nice weapon in the passing game, which is important against Philly ahead -- because it’s so hard to run the ball on the Eagles frontline.
The last (and only) time Ekeler faced the Eagles this season...a season high 8 catches for 89 yards on 9 targets.
-- Jared Goff (23-40 for 313 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is getting the ‘see, we told you so’ treatment from the media that has hated him since day-one.
My formula for Goff for Dynasty trades the next month+, where I need a stable QB added, is as follows...
6pts pass TD leagues/passer beneficial scoring leagues.
PLUS
Goff losing this playoff game with three picks, and the media hit pieces to come all the offseason. FF owners already don’t love him, because their media overlords don’t trust him, so Goff’s values will easily slide.
PLUS
The absolute, 100% guaranteed all-offseason articles/analysis that Goff is gonna fall off because Ben Johnson is gone (implied that Ben created Goff, a la Frank Reich and John DeFilippo were given careers for ‘creating’ Nick Foles’s Super Bowl season...only they didn’t).
EQUALS
Nationally, Goff will have QB2 and falling 2025 projections...and me scooping up Goff for little in exchange.
-- Huge playoff game event for Detroit...a shootout...and Jameson Williams (1-19-0/4, 1-61-1) has one catch for 19 yards. That’s not good enough. Dan Campbell should sell Jamo high...send him to Chicago or wherever...and get some real veteran, good WRs in for Goff and the new O-C.
If the stat line wasn’t bad enough, as a receiver, Jameson did take a jet sweep for a 61-yard TD and then proceeded to celebrate the score by humping the ground like an absolute idiot...but then Jamo ruined the entire hope for Detroit in this game by being asked to throw a double-reverse pass (that was easily picked) trying to comeback in this game in the 2nd-half. Campbell has taken this dimwit about as far as he can -- now is the perfect time to sell him off for things he needs/wants.
If Williams ever leaves Dan Campbell, you’ll want to sell Jamo off too...and may want to regardless, off this breakout season.
Also, that Jameson pass for a crucial pick in this game...what a disastrous call by the young genius O-C Ben Johnson.
-- Yes, the Commanders defense allowed 31 points...but they were the aggressors here and put Detroit in uncomfortable spots enough times to control/win the game. They are playing defense like they play offense...all-out, aggressive, gambling, pressure...and it worked here via lots of yards and points allowed, BUT they forced/got five turnovers in the game.
Also, something I noticed for the Washington defense...the top three tacklers in this game for them, all free agent acquisitions this offseason -- stripped two of the best Panthers from them...Jeremy Chinn (12 tackles, 1 PD) and Frankie Luvu (9 tackles) and also snagged Bobby Wagner (8 tackles). They turned their defense in one offseason...smart free agency and a fantastic draft on defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Gibbs
17 = D Montg
40 = BRob
28 = Ekeler
13 = McNichols
70 = McLaurin
62 = Dyami
33 = Zaccheaus
30 = Crowder
08 = McCaffrey
