Game overview:
It wasn’t a masterpiece, but KC got the win. Two underperforming offenses, all season, underperformed on offense in the cold here...and one of them won. The Texans kept hanging around...not sure if it was Houston’s grit, or the Chiefs’ mediocrity in this game...but it was close for a bit but then KC slowly clamped down and got to a two-score/11-point lead with 4+ minutes left. Houston drove down to scoring range and decided to take the field goal, to then try for the onsides...but KC blocked the field goal to preserve our -8.5 KC bets and the Chiefs roll on to the next round.
Houston went further and kept this game closer than I ever expected they would have this playoff season. Their defense was popping in the playoffs, but their lack of an O-Line that killed them all season – it put the final nail in their coffin here…Stroud got sacked 8 times.
The Chiefs wander into the Final Four off a wobbly performance here, but they’ll likely crank it up for the AFC Finals, as they do.
Player Scouting Notes from the game:
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a 'split' stat on our definition of a 'quality start' (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 (6pts TD pass) for a QB ...point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the QUALITY mark, and 2 times they did not (this current season).
-- I’ve probably noted it on every Texans-based game report, so might as well one more time...I am stunned at the 2024 output collapse of C.J. Stroud (19-28 for 245 yards, 6-42-0). Such a great rookie season, and you think QBs are just gonna take another step in year-two...but not Stroud.
I didn’t see anything wrong with him...just not enough time to throw, then they fell in love with running Joe Mixon, then they started losing WRs every few weeks of the season...and Stroud almost wound up with the QB3s by PPG after a stellar rookie 2023.
How the Texans’ O-C is getting head coaching interviews, I do not know. The Texans were 19th in PPG this past season.
How to rank/project Stroud for 2025+ is tricky...and will be dependent upon what Houston does in free agency and the draft for the O-Line.
17 starts in 2024 regular season...ONE FF ‘Quality Start’ (21 or more FF pts in a game, 6pts pass TD).
In the 2023 season, six ‘Quality Starts’ in 15 starts/games with one 30+ point game, and one 40+ point game.
-- Speaking of underwhelming QBs for FF, Patrick Mahomes (16-25 for 177 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 7-14-0)...a weak performance here, following a disappointing FF season...his second FF letdown season in a row.
How’s it going to get any better in 2025?
Marquise Brown is a free agent.
DeAndre Hopkins is fading, and is a free agent.
Might Travis Kelce retire?
Rashee Rice may be suspended for the first half of the season.
They need to find Mahomes a left tackle on top of everything else.
KC probably finds a way for it to be plausible enough of offense in 2025, but not super-high-end.
Mahomes had 16 starts in the 2024 regular season, and just four ‘Quality Starts’.
-- The Texans secondary deserves some of the credit for the low KC pass game output. They virtually shut down the big name WRs.
DeAndre Hopkins...no catches on 1 target.
Hollywood Brown...no catches on 2 targets.
JuJu Smith-Schuster...no catches on 1 target.
Xavier Worthy (5-45-0/6) was the only WR to catch a pass from Mahomes in this game. How is this possible?
The Texans were 6th in the NFL in the fewest pass yards per game allowed this season, but they were the third worst in passing TDs given up (30). Aided by the third-most sacks by a defense this season. They also played a very easy schedule, especially with the disaster their own division turned out to be. I am not sure if this is an ace pass defense...or if it’s just ‘good’ and all KC’s offense is now is ‘OK/good’?
-- Isiah Pacheco’s (5-18-0, 0-0-0/1) five games since returning from the early season injury: 9.0 carries, 24.2 rush yards (2.7 yards per carry, and 0.0 TDs per game. He’s looked nothing like himself since returning. KC initially pushed him right away upon return but in the past 3 games, it’s clear -- KC is going with Kareem Hunt (8-44-1, 1-2-0/1) in crunch time.
I pre-warned there was possible trouble for Pacheco to come back from injury to a split role with Carson Steele, but then when Hunt was acquired...it was a real concern that Hunt would work a split with Pacheco.
And if you think it’s a 2024/Pacheco coming off an injury thing...we might be in for a rude awakening in 2025. There’s a very good chance KC re-signs Hunt and runs a duo again...or KC pushes more Steele or drafts another option late in the draft. It’s smart for NFL purposes. Not good for Pacheco owners.
Isiah Pacheco is a free agent AFTER 2025 season. He’s definitely not getting an early contract extension this offseason, but it looked headed that way to start 2024 season. How fast things change with NFL/FF RBs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Worthy
34 = Mq Brown
21 = JuJu
16 = D Hopkins
24 = Hunt
16 = Pacheco
11 = Perine
03 = Steele
56 = Collins
42 = Hutchinson
39 = Metchie
24 = Jared Wayne
